SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV Roanoke (8/31-9/1, likely voters,
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 35 (35)
Rob Hurt (R): 61 (58)
Jeff Clark (I): 2 (4)
Undecided: 2 (3)
(MoE: ±4%)
Brutal stuff. It’s worth mentioning that last time, we mentioned some issues with the crosstabs, including Hurt’s big support among younger voters. Those issues persist in this poll.
It’s worth mentioning that Perriello fared more favorably in the most recent American Action Forum poll, trailing Hurt by 43-49 — and that poll, conducted by a Republican firm, tested the top line match-up right after asking a question about the healthcare bill.
Could things really be this bad?
UPDATE: Dana has one more issue regarding the poll: a very optimistic voter turnout prediction.
Things CAN be that bad and probably are. I think SurveyUSA has a GOP house bias, but it’s not all that strong. I expect to see more and more of this sort of thing in house races as they get polled.
SurveyUSA has blown this race in the past many times… I don’t know why they keep making such errors, but the GOP bias overall makes Rasmussen look liberal.
It’s probably not this bad, but no one knows for sure. One thing: Perriello needs to get an internal out there pronto that disputes this poll, or he’s going to start having trouble raising any more cash.
I am not sure things are THAT bad, but they are bad for sure.
I think we might be passing the point of no return in regards of the House. Without any markable improvement, anything below 35 in terms of Republican net gains is nearly impossible.
This is a huge gap, I could buy 10 points, but not 26.
I never thought any outfit could make Rasmussen look good, but here it is.
Is Perrriello past the point of no return? His position is a lot different as an incumbent than a challenger, and the underfunded Clark’s vote will continue to deteriorate as Election Day approaches.
My instincts tell me that this poll could be way off and Perriello is still in Rick Santorum in 2006 territory.
There is no way this poll will be proven right by November but Hurt is definitely up by somewhere between 5-10 points let’s be honest. Perriello has no major scandals that put him at the ire of many voters but he is in a very conservative gerrymandered district and barely won with the wind at his back, hence 5-10 points is about right. Full disclaimer in that I live in VA but losing him would be a major dagger. He has great convictions and doesn’t shy away from what he believes in. He is even willing to go to Tea Party events and defend himself. I can’t see Robert Hurt going anywhere where he won’t get any softball questions. He’s had more town halls than any other Congressional member out there. He is young and would have a political future even if he loses. I could see him running for Governor in 2013 (especially if he gets to run against Ken Cuccinelli) as I think that district will be even more gerrymandered next time where a rematch would be tough as they will dilute Charlottesville even more.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
The district is 25% African-American — SUSA shows only 11% of the voters being black. (And, in the converse, they say 86% of voters will be white, in a district where only 70% of the population is).
They also show 21% of black voters and 18% of self-described “liberals” voting for Hurt — completely unrealistic numbers.
And I’m sure that the poll failed to capture the sizable student population at UVA.
If you take these things into account and re-weight the sample to reflect a more realistic black portion of the electorate, you end up with a much smaller lead for the Republican and a very close race overall.
Odds are still that Perriello will have a hard time holding the seat, but these numbers are completely wacked out… expect a close race up to the very end.
You could read that as making the poll seem more suspicious, but you could also read it as a very bad sign for Democrats that they’re doing very poorly even in districts that aren’t that bad for them.