Public Policy Polling (8/27-29, likely voters, 6/26-27 in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 38 (40)
Rob Portman (R): 45 (38)
Undecided: 18 (22)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Since Ted Strickland and Lee Fisher have tended to move up and down in concert with each other in polling, it was a pretty foregone conclusion, based on yesterday’s PPP OH-Gov numbers (and also more generically on PPP’s switch to a likely voter model, and that that generates a sample that went 48-45 for John McCain in 2008), that things would have gotten worse for Fisher. They have: his 2-point lead has turned into a 7-point deficit. Fisher’s favorables are now negative at 24/32, while Portman is at 29/28.
A lot of Fisher’s problem is that many Dems (21%) are still undecided, and assuming they break his direction, that should push his numbers up. But that still isn’t enough to push him back into the lead, based on Portman’s 43-30 lead among independents.
Fisher just doesn’t have the money to compete with Portman. In a different year, Strickland might have been able to get enough people out to make the difference, but he can’t even save himself. I don’t expect the DSCC to spend much to try and take this seat.
I’m not sure without the cash Fischer can come back.
Fisher was the best choice for this race?