Rating the Ohio State House

The Ohio State House is one of the most important legislative bodies in terms of the 2010 re-districting season coming up.  With the governor’s race looking iffy for Team Blue, the democrats must hold the majority of seats in the state house in order to ensure a compromise map for congressional redistricting.  

State legislative redistricting in Ohio is based on a 5-seat panel, involving the governor, auditor, secretary of state, state house majority, and state senate majority.  However, congressional redistricting is done via legislature and governor only, thus making keeping the state house of utmost importance, especially if the governorship is lost.

The Democrats currently hold 53 seats in the Ohio State House, to the Republicans’ 46.  The GOP will need to win 4 seats in order to win a majority of seats.  In this diary, I will list the seats of importance in the fight for the statehouse and where I rate them.  This analysis is going on the assumption that John Kasich and Rob Portman are winning the governor’s and senate races somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 points, creating a statewide electorate similar to that of 2000 and 2004.  At present, Kasich is leading by 6-10 points over Ted Strickland in the governor’s race, and Rob Portman is up 4-7 points in the Senate race, although it has been speculated that the governor’s race may actually end up closer because of Strickland’s strong ground operation and Fisher’s lack of cash on hand.

First some eye candy!

Ohio State House District Map by party:

Open Seats:

As with most political races, the open seats are of utmost importance, especially in terms of political geography.  So let’s run those down first.  

1. 13 state representatives faced a primary challenge this spring.  Of these 13, only one was defeated, democrat John Otterman of district 45 (Akron).   However, district 96 (New Philadelphia) was vacated by a democrat in May after the primary, and will be up for grabs as well.

2. 13 state representatives are term limited in 2010.  Those are:

a. Michael Dubose (democrat – district 12 – Warrensville)

b. Michael Skindell (democrat – district 13 – Lakewood)

c. Dan Stewart (democrat – district 25 – Grove City)

d. Edna Brown (democrat – district 48 – Toledo)

e. Scott Oelslager (republican – district 51 – North Canton)

f. Joseph Koziura (democrat – district 56 – Lorain)

g. Sandra Harwood (democrat – district 65 – Warren)

h. Kathleen Chandler (democrat – district 68 – Ravenna)

i. Jeff Wagner (republican – district 81 – Tiffin)

j. David Daniels (republican – district 86 – Wilmington)

k. Clyde Evans (republican – district 87 – Jackson)

l. Todd Book (democrat – district 89 – Portsmouth)

m. John Domenick (democrat – district 95 – Stubenville)

3. 8 state representatives are retiring in 2010.  Those are:

a. Kris Jordan (republican – district 2 – Delaware)

b. Robin Belcher (democrat – district 10 – Cleveland)

c. Josh Mandel (republican – district 17 – Lyndhurst)

d. Kevin Bacon (republican – district 21 – Westerville)

e. Seth Morgan (republican – district 36 – Huber Heights)

f. Joe Walter (democrat – district 47 – Maumee)

g. Jennifer Garrison (democrat – district 93 – Marietta)

h. Richard Hollington (republican – district 98 – Chesterland)

Looking analytically at those 23 open seats, although the democrats are defending 14 of them, most of those are in hugely democratic parts of the state.  Districts 10, 12, and 13 are all in the Cleveland area, and should be easy holds.  Other easy holds should result for district 45 in Akron, district 48 in Toledo, district 56 in Lorain, district 65 in Warren.  The republicans failed to put up a candidate in district 95 in Stubenville, so that seat is safe D also (though it wouldn’t be if it was contested).  District 47 in Maumee isn’t quite as strongly democratic as the others, but I would call it a Likely D hold.  District 25 in southern Franklin county could potentially be interesting, but I call that one a Likely D hold as well.

That leaves 4 democratic held open seats that could be at risk of turning over to the republicans.  The most unlikely of these to turn over is district 68 in Portage County.  This is democratic territory and includes Kent State University, but also includes some more hostile exurban territory in the north and east.  I think this one is Lean D.  Obama still won here in 2008 though.  That leaves the three seats that are in the most danger of falling, district 89 in Portsmouth, district 93 in Marietta, and district 96 in New Philadelphia.  These three seats are all in eastern and southern Ohio, and are trending rightward.  I put districts 89 and 96 at Toss Up, and district 93 at Lean R.  

Now for the 9 republican held seats.  Districts 2, 36, 81, 86, and 87 are all located in republican voting areas, so I will call those safe R.  District 81 southeast of Toledo could be somewhat interesting as Obama moved the needle hugely here in 2008, but it generally votes republican on the local level.  I’ll list this one as Likely R.  District 51 in northern Stark county would be a pickup opportunity, but an extremely strong candidate, former state senator Kirk Schuring, is running for the republicans, so I put that race at Likely R as well.  District 17 in southeast Cuyahoga county is republican leaning, but the democrats had a big surge in turnout in the primary here, so this could be a pickup opportunity.  I put it at Toss Up.  District 21 in northern Franklin County though, is a bona fide pickup opportunity for the democrats as Obama romped here in 2008 and I think even Kerry won it too.  It’s going to come down to candidates and turnout here, so it’s a Toss Up.

Seats with Incumbents:

Now the fun begins.  My analysis with regard to incumbents is relatively simple, and goes mostly by win margin in previous election(s) and partisan voter index, while allowing for local/national voting patterns.

Democratic held seats:

District 18 – This district is in southwest Cuyahoga county, and is held by Democrat Matt Patten, who won an open seat race 51-48 in 2008.  My hometown of Strongsville is in this district, and it leans slightly republican at the local level as well as national.  Patten seems like a strong incumbent, and was the top vote getter in the primary, so I think he’s got a good shot to survive against republican Mike Dovilla.  I rank it as Toss Up.

District 19 – This district runs along the eastern tip of Franklin County, and is gerrymandered to elect a republican, but democrat Marian Harris broke through, winning a 50-49 race in 2008.  Her opponent is a strong one though in republican Anne Gonzales.  The area leans republican both locally and nationally, and with the climate, I rank this one as Lean R.

District 20 – This district is in eastern Franklin county.  Democrat Nancy Garland won here by a 53-47 amount in 2008 over Republican Matt Carle.  Carle is back for a rematch in 2010, and by all indications, this race could be a close one.  I rank this one as a Toss Up.

District 22 – This district is in northwest Franklin county and includes territory that is locally republican but nationally democratic.  Democrat John Carney is the rep here, and he first won this seat in 2006.  He won by 57-43 in 2008, so he may be gaining some entrenchment.  That being said, he’s up for a tough race against republican Angel Rhodes.  I call this one Lean D.

District 24 – This district centers on some richer, ritzier suburbs to the west of Columbus.  Democrat Ted Celeste won this seat back in 2000, but never got fully entrenched.  He won 58-42 in 2008.  Republican Nathan Larger is the republican candidate.  As with district 22, the total republican primary vote was higher than the democratic vote, but that was likely because the Rs had competitive primaries and the D incumbents didn’t.  Still, as with district 22, I rank this one Lean D.

District 28 – This district is based in northeastern Hamilton County, and is a generally conservative area.  Democrat Connie Pillich pulled off a huge upset here in 2006 to win the seat.  She won re-election 54-45 in 2008.  Her opponent is republican Mike Wilson.  Alarmingly, the republican primary vote here was more than twice the democratic turnout, suggesting that minorities and other democratic voting groups that heavily supported Obama in the Cincinnati area might be snoozing.  I give this one a Lean R rating.

District 41 – This district is located in northern and western Summit county, and combines rich, republican suburbs of Cleveland and Akron with more working class, industrial areas.  Democrat Brian Williams is the rep here, he first won in 2004, but only won 54-46 in 2010.  The republican candidate is Lynn Slaby.  Even though this district appears to be swingish and the year is bad, the fact that Williams won in a bad environment before leads me to believe he can do it again.  My rating is Lean D.

District 42 – This district is based in northeastern Summit county in suburban Akron.  The district leans democratic locally and nationally.  Representative Mike Moran, a democrat, won this seat in 2008 by a 56-44 count.  The republican candidate is Kristina Roegner, who from what I’ve heard about her is an extremely formidable candidate.  Despite the district’s lean, I feel that this year, Roegner could pull it off, so this race is a Toss Up.

District 63 – The district is centered on the more rural and exurban eastern part of Lake county, and leans slightly republican for the most part, though it’s definitely contestable most years.  Democrat Mark Schneider won here by a 54-45 count in 2008, which was a nice over performance of the presidential topline.  Still, he’s facing a tough race from republican Ron Young.  I put this race at Toss Up.

District 73 – Now this is a weird one.  Democrat Jay Goyle is the majority whip of the Ohio House, and won his 2008 race by a 65-34 count.  Should be a shoo-in for re-election right?  Wrong.  This district is centered in Richland county, mostly on the Mansfield area, which is generally quite republican.  In fact, no democrats represent any districts touching Goyle’s.  The PVI suggests a takeover, but Goyle didn’t win by big margins and become majority whip by accident.  He’s the Chet Edwards of the Ohio House, if you will.  I start this race at Lean D.

District 80 – This district centers on the Lake Erie coastline.  Democrat Dennis Murray first won this seat in 2008 by a 53-46 margin, which actually was under Obama’s total by a slight amount.  I wonder about his ability to campaign to some degree, but he did receive more votes in the primary than did republican challenger Frank Krabill.  This district seems to be trending leftward, so I start this one out at Lean D.

District 85 – This district is southwest of Columbus and centers on exurban and rural territory that leans quite far to the republicans.  Democrat Raymond Pryor pulled off a huge upset by winning 52-48 in 2008 to win the seat.  Republican Bob Peterson is running strong to knock off Pryor, and looking at the district’s geography, I think he’s got a great shot at doing that.  This is the one seat in the Ohio House that I think is most likely to flip, and I put it at Likely R.

District 91 – This district is an oddly-shaped one in southeast Ohio, and centers on some nationally republican but locally democratic ground.  Democrat Dan Dodd is the rep here, and he won by a 57-42 count in 2008 after initially winning the seat in 2006.  His opponent is republican Bill Hayes, who alarmingly got more votes than Hayes in the primary even though he was facing a primary challenger and Hayes wasn’t.  I don’t know how much to read into that after Hayes’s strong 2008 result and the district’s two-faced voting habits.  This is a tough one to read overall, so I’ll call it a Toss-Up.

District 92 – This district is in southeastern Ohio, and includes some republican friendly territory in Meigs and Morgan counties but is anchored by hugely democratic Athens county, which contains Ohio University.  Democrat Debbie Phillips won an extremely close contest in 2008 by 51-49.  That means that the seat is at least somewhat likely to flip back, especially if students from OU don’t turn out.  Phillips’s situation seems awfully familiar to one of Ohio’s U.S House members, Mary Kilroy.  I rate this at Toss Up.

District 99 – This district is centered in Ashtabula County in the state’s northeast corner.  The territory generally leans democratic, and rep Deborah Newcomb won here by a 56-43 margin in 2008.  Republican Casey Kozlowski is running against her, but I think the GOP has other better targets than this.  I put it at Likely D.  

Republican held seats:

District 16 – This district is in northwestern Cuyahoga County, taking in many of Cleveland’s western suburbs.  Republican rep Nan Baker won by a 51-49 margin here in 2008, and as it turns out, her 2008 opponent, democrat Jennifer Brady, is back for another run at it.  This is a seat that is swingish, and has a decent chance of going blue despite the environment, as evidenced by the total democratic vote way outnumbering the republican vote (although the Rs didn’t have a competitive race, so that’s taken with a grain of salt).  I rank this as a Toss Up race.

District 58 – This district lies in north-central Ohio, mostly in farmland south of the Lake Erie coastline.  Republican rep Terry Boose won this race by a 53-46 count in 2008, and may have some visible weaknesses as a campaigner.  Democrat Gregory Davidson will try to take him out, but this is locally republican territory for the most part, although Obama probably ran even with McCain in 2008.  I start this one out at Lean R.

District 72 – This district is centered on Springfield and the generally more democratic parts of swingy Clark County.  I would guess that Obama probably won here, and it was here that republican Ross McGregor survived by less than 600 votes in 2008.  He has survived some bad environments already, but is facing a tough challenge again from democrat Gregory Krouse.  This area seems to be trending rightward to some degree but is still somewhat democratic at the local level.  I rank this one as Toss Up.

District 75 – This is a republican-leaning district in rural northwest Ohio.  Republican Lynn Wachtmann went unopposed in 2008, but Obama really moved the needle strongly toward the left that year.  I wouldn’t even list this one, except that democrat Cletus Schindler scored more votes than did Wachtmann in the primary and seems to be mounting a pretty serious challenge.  I’m skeptical though, as this area is nearly 100% republican at the local level.  It’s Likely R.

Ohio State House Scoreboard:

Democrat held seats (53 total) – 32 Safe D, 3 Likely D, 6 Lean D, 8 Toss Up, 3 Lean R, 1 Likely R

Republican held seats (46 total) – 38 Safe R, 3 Likely R, 1 Lean R, 4 Toss Up

Total seats (99 total) – 32 Safe D, 3 Likely D, 6 Lean D, 12 Toss Up, 4 Lean R, 5 Likely R, 38 Safe R

Ohio State House Ratings Map:

Assuming I haven’t misfired on any of the 87 races that lean one direction or the other (big, big assumption to make!), that means that Dems will have 41 seats and the Reps will have 47 seats, meaning that the Democrats will have to win 9 of the 12 toss-up seats to retain control of the chamber.  That’s not an impossible task, but it’s a tough one.  At this point, I think the most likely scenario is that the Republicans pick up somewhere between 3-7 seats in the state house, and their chances of a takeover is probably about 60-70%.  That of course assumes that Kasich and Portman win their races by about 4-5%, if they win by more, they could get more seats.  Likewise, if one of them loses, or their win margin is really tight, the democrats could fare well enough to retain control.