SurveyUSA for KING-TV (8/31-9/2, likely voters, no trendlines:
Suzan DelBene (D): 41
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 54
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±3.9%)
I haven’t had high hopes (or even low hopes) for this race this cycle… if Darcy Burner couldn’t beat Dave Reichert in the 2008 environment, then Suzan DelBene isn’t likely to fare better in the 2010 environment with basically the same resume and without the netroots and grassroots interest. DelBene (with a BlackBerry… or maybe a Zune… full of MSFT contacts) has been one of the Dems’ brightest spots on fundraising among challengers, but money alone isn’t going to get the job done this year.
SurveyUSA has its usual age-related quirks (Reichert performs best among the 18-34 set), but these numbers aren’t that different from the composite D and R totals from the WA-08 top 2 primary, maybe even a little more Dem-favorable than the primary, so the toplines don’t seem far off. Maybe the most interesting question here is whether DelBene runs again in 2012 — although the map may look dramatically different by that point. The 8th has seen a lot of population growth, so the current 8th may be the cores of two different districts by that point, especially if Washington gets its expected 10th seat. This may take the shape of a GOP-leaning seat in SE King County (Reichert’s turf) and a pretty-solidly-Dem seat on the Eastside, which would give DelBene a much better opening, although a newly created seat would probably draw a lot of Dem state legislators out of the woodwork, too.
If we hold the house, Pelosi should think introducing legislation upping the number of house districts there are. I’d say around 600. Many of these districts would be drawn into more liberal areas (cities are disadvantaged to the country side when districts are not gerrymandered) and states. It would really provide a nice ‘comeback’ in 2012 for the Democratic house seat margin after the 2010 Republican ‘rout’.
With new districts, maybe we could get Darcy to come back and run again!
is a just a good fit for this district, the voters there really have no desire to fire and replace him.
As noted, re-apportionment next year is our hope for this area.
It’s disappointing that this district didn’t flip in 08.
He now votes lockstep with the Republicans and caves on his positions, but throws the occasional bone to environmentalists.
DelBene can be emerging since the primary. This is a good new.
Waste of money to poll something right after a jungle primary with party IDs.