OR-Gov, OR-Sen: Two Very Different Results

SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (9/12-14, likely voters, 7/25-27 in parentheses):

John Kitzhaber (D): 43 (44)

Chris Dudley (R): 49 (46)

Other: 5 (7)

Undecided: 3 (4)

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 54 (53)

Jim Huffman (R): 38 (35)

Other: 4 (9)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

SurveyUSA’s newest poll of the Oregon governor’s race continues to have Republican Chris Dudley leading Dem John Kitzhaber, this time by 6 points. It’s superficially easy to take this poll with a grain of salt, seeing as how SurveyUSA has wound up significantly in outlier territory in the states that bookend Oregon (in CA-Sen and WA-Sen) and the crosstabs offer the usual confounding details (like a 48-48 tie between the two in the Portland area). Even if you think this race is closer to a tie, though, geez, what a missed opportunity… John Kitzhaber spent a year trying to occupy the intellectual high ground, completely foregoing the opportunity to define Dudley early as a dilettanteish empty vessel, and all he got for his good intentions was a completely avoidable Tossup.

Riley Research (pdf) (8/31-9/9, likely voters, no trendlines):

John Kitzhaber (D): 40

Chris Dudley (R): 39

Other: 5

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5%)

This has been a woefully underserved race, with SurveyUSA and Rasmussen left to set the story (with the only other poll I can think of, from well-respected local pollster Tim Hibbitts, showing the race a tie in early summer). So it’s good to get a second opinion from someone who’s a local pollster and not an auto-dialer (even if it’s one I’m not familiar with). They see this as a much closer race, giving Kitzhaber a tiny lead, although with a much bigger share of undecideds. Maybe most interestingly, Kitzhaber actually leads among indies (38-29); the problem here seems to be that Dudley fares much better among GOPers (79%) than Kitzhaber does among Dems (69%).