SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: Word is out about two forthcoming ad buys in Alaska: Lisa Murkowski is going up on radio and TV (NWOTSOTB), while Scott McAdams just threw down what Smart Media Group is calling “a partial buy of $48K in broadcast.”

    • Meanwhile, I don’t really give a fuck what John Kyl thinks, but it’s nice to see that he’s sweating the possibility that a Murkowski write-in campaign makes it less likely the GOP will hold on to the seat. (As an aside, don’t you wish Dems had handled Lieberman like this? Indeed, Republicans are supposedly weighing whether to strip Murkowski of her committee assignments.) But maybe Kyl is just being the idiot he always is, because a Republican source tells The Hill that internal polling “indicates Murkowski’s write-in bid takes an equal amount of support from Democrat Scott McAdams as it does Miller.” For once in my life, I hope Kyl is right!

  • MO-Sen: Global Strategy Group for the Missouri Democratic Party (9-14/18, likely voters, no trendlines, includes leaners):

    • Robin Carnahan (D): 39

    Roy Blunt (R): 43

    Jerry Beck (C): 3

    Jonathan Dine (L): 3

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • AK-Gov: NEA-Alaska, the biggest union in the state, just endorsed Dem Ethan Berkowitz for governor. And Bill Walker, the Republican primary loser who is still considering a write-in bid, is holding out the possibility of a Berko endorsement as well.
  • FL-22: The ghost of Casey Stengel is smacking his forehead and asking, once more, “Can’t anybody here play this game?” The Florida Democratic Party sent out a mailer hitting Allen West over his tax liens… but the managed to include his full Social Security number. Oy.
  • IN-09: Reid Wilson claims there’s a dispute between the IE arm of the DCCC and main HQ… but there isn’t a single quote in the piece, not even an anonymous one. Though the IE wing has cancelled ad buys on behalf of Baron Hill in mid-October, supposedly the “coordinated” arm “believes Hill is still deserving of spending.” I have no reason to doubt Reid, but if his source at main D-Trip wanted to get this message out there, this is a damn oblique way to do it – but maybe he or she was scared of accusations of “coordination via the media.” Anyhow, it all just shows how dumb these rules against coordination are.
  • KY-06: The Mellman Group for Ben Chandler (9/13-14, likely voters):

    Ben Chandler (D-inc): 53

    Andy Barr (R): 33

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    This is the first poll that Chandler has released, though his campaign teased earlier in the summer that their internal from June gave Chandler a “strong double-digit lead”.

  • MI-03: This open-seat race hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, but Dem Patrick Miles just rolled out an impressive list of Republican endorsements, including a couple of former county GOP chairs… and two daughters of retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers! Based on the comments in the article, I get the distinct feeling that Republican Justin Amash must be a seriously unlikable dude for this many of his fellow party members to want to diss him so thoroughly. By the way, Amash’s fundraising has been unimpressive (just $380K), and he has less than half the cash of Miles ($227K to $112K).
  • NE-02: Biden Alert! The VPOTUS is coming to Omaha on Sept. 30th to headline a fundraiser for Dem Tom White. I’m gonna guess that Republican Rep. Lee Terry might have a harder time than most in tying White to the Obama administration, though, given that Terry put out flyers in the 2008 cycle touting his support from mythical “Obama-Terry voters.”
  • NY-18: Wow, the NY GOP sure is good at producing pariah leper candidates these days, huh? Republican Jim Russell, running against Nita Lowey, penned an essay for the racist Occidental Quarterly in support of ethnic and religious segregation a few years ago – but that description is way too anodyne to do his piece justice. For instance, he approvingly quotes T.S. Eliot, who said, among other things: “What is still more important is unity of religious background; and reasons of race and culture combine to make any large number of free-thinking Jews undesirable.” Click through to Maggie Haberman’s piece for a much larger selection of choice quotes. Also note that the Westchester County GOP endorsed Russell in July, after another candidate dropped out.
  • TX-23: What a fucking idiot: Republican Quico Canseco blanketed San Antonio with door-hangers that claimed Rep. Ciro Rodriguez voted in favor of TARP. But, uh, he didn’t. In fact, he voted against the bailout twice. Seriously, how fucking hard is it to Google this shit?
  • WA-03: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Denny Heck (9/7-9, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Denny Heck (D): 44

    Jaime Herrera (R): 47

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    We say “no trendlines” because we don’t know the precise top lines from GQR’s previously poll for Heck (conducted in June), though we do know from Roll Call’s write up that Heck trailed Herrera by 7 points in that one.

    SSP TV:

    • FL-Gov: Alex Sink’s latest ad uses the words of local newspaper editorials against scumbag Republican Rick Scott’s campaign platform, while also touting her economic ideas. And, hey, some WOTSOTB: She’s spending $800K on the ad.
    • AZ-05: One Harry Mitchell spot touts his fight against Congressional pay raises; another touts his support from three apparently reg’lar Republicans (but oddly leaves off the “I approve” message – is this not a broadcast ad?)
    • AZ-08: Gabby Giffords hangs Jesse Kelly on the “flat tax” with his own words in support of a 23% national sales tax. I personally love going after Republicans on this issue because the dumb fucks who support this have to sputter that no, but, really, actually, what we mean is… ah, who gives a fuck what they mean.
    • KS-03: An anodyne spot from Republican Kevin Yoder (people shouting “We’re Yoder Voters!”); and another pretty blah ad about small businesses (featuring a black-and-white photo of Pelosi without even mentioning her by name – odd)
    • KY-03: John Yarmuth updates an effective ad from his 2008 campaign, featuring a disabled Navy veteran narrating about Yarmuth’s support for vets (ad is “expected to run for a week on all the networks in Louisville”)
    • MD-01: Frank Kratovil also has a good ad hitting Andy Harris on the national 23% sales tax (see AZ-08 above)
    • NY-20: A pretty clever ad from Scott Murphy, responding to attacks on his vote in favor of healthcare reform by pointing out some of the most popular parts of the bill, like closing the Medicare “donut hole”

    • 156 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Morning Edition)”

    2. Considering most people believe TARP was the product of the Obama administration, when it was enacted in 2008, during Bush’s reign, it’s not surprising that Republicans are willing to take advantage of this, take things one step farther, and lie about their opponents’ vote on it.

    4. Any word on whether Yoder used actual Kansas voters? Knowing him, they were probably all Nebraskans.  

      (didn’t get the reference? Click here. Or here.)

      Also, he looks like he’s about 23 in that spot, not exactly someone aging Johnson Countians will want to represent them. I’m really starting to think Stephene Moore might just bake up a big ole ass-kicking pie on Election Day.

    6. Ras has DioGuardi only down 10.  I just don’t see him winning, even in a year like this, but had there been a stronger candidate – especially a self-funder, I think that this race could have flipped.  I wonder if Kara made enough money working for American Idol to help her dad out and get him elected?

      All the same, I give him like a 1 in 50 chance of catching fire – stranger things have happened.

    7. If his own internal shows him down, that’s not good. But the linked Roll Call article gives Heck the best possible spin:

      While Heck’s poll finds Herrera at 47 percent and Heck at 44 percent, it’s an improvement from recent public surveys and past polling conducted for Heck’s campaign.

    14. Herron has remixed his last attack by incorporating new issues about Fincher ducking debates and refusing interviews, while adding a positive intro. This ad continues with the theme of “Stephen Fincher: Breaking the Law, Unworthy of our Trust”.

    25. Prefers to think of itself as supporting moderate Republicans.  When he retired, Ehlers said he didn’t plan to endorse, because either of Hardiman or Heacock would make a fine Congressman.  When asked specifically about Amash, he repeated that either of Hardiman or Heacock would be a good choice.  (He eventually endorsed one of them, but Amash won the primary anyhow.)

      This race is still at least Likely R, and probably safe — but it has a chance of becoming Tea Party Fail.  And even if Amash wins, he has a chance of getting booted out in two years, whereas the others would have been safe.

    27. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

      Tossup to Lean R:

      CO-04 (Markey)

      FL-24 (Kosmas)

      IL-11 (Halvorson)

      IN-08 (Ellsworth, Open)

      MD-01 (Kratovil)

      NH-02 (Hodes, Open)

      OH-01 (Driehaus)

      OH-15 (Kilroy)

      TN-08 (Tanner, Open)

      TX-17 (Chet Edwards)

      Leans D to Tossup:

      AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)

      AZ-05 (Mitchell)

      GA-08 (Marshall)

      NY-19 (Hall)

      PA-10 (Carney)

      WI-08 (Kagen)

      Leans R to Tossup (?!!):

      CA-03 (Lungren) (?!)

    28. It’s been driving me crazy for months.  (Not without other tall short old time beers?)  (No wild onions think someone outside thinks big?)    I’m lost.  Help me out here.  

      thanks,

      Michael  

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