Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (9/18-19, likely voters, no trend lines):
Ami Bera (D): 38
Dan Lungren (R-inc): 46
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Democrats have been lustily eyeing this district, which is anchored in the Sacramento suburbs, since Lungren beat Democrat Bill Durston by under 6% in 2008. That year, Obama managed to beat McCain by half a percentage point – a dramatic turnaround from the 17% Bush win in 2004. Crisitunity examined the factors driving the change in this district (and throughout California) in detail in April of 2009. He found that the bulk of the district’s population growth is coming from minority demographics, which led to a drop in the GOP’s registration advantage from 11% to 2% from 2002 to 2008.
Of course, turnout isn’t likely to be the same beast as it was in 2008 (though there is some evidence to suggest that things won’t be as bad in California), and the top of the ticket isn’t as strong this time around for Bera: Whitman leads Brown by 50-43, while Fiorina leads Boxer by 53-39. Still, Lungren has a net unfavorability rating at 39-46 and only leads Bera by 38-33 among independents – not especially formidable numbers. This is still an interesting race.
From what I see, less than 1/3 of the new CA-03 are white. I think that explains the GOP’s registration edge slipping away. 😉
If this was the poll to cause CQ to change the rating to tossup?(something which I’m still scratching my head about)
In better year, this one would likely flip, but it looks like it’s shaping up to be one to watch this year. Bera could find an opening.
The marijuana initiative will bring many non-regulars to the polls, especially young ones and growers in the Sierras.
Even the growers voting against the initiative shou7ld vote against Lungren, who as AG in the ’90s was the most stroident player against medical marijuana.
Only 5% of the poll’s respondents were under 30. Were ANY under 20? Major methodology fail.
It would be easy for Democrats to redistrict him out of existence if Brown wins the governorship, and even if he keeps his current district, he’s in big trouble for 2012 when Bera could seek a rematch in a (likely) better environment.
If Lungren wins this yeat, I hope he runs for DiFi’s senate seat in 2012 so we can run someone in CA-03 who doesn’t have the stench of a career politician.
relative to Mccain voters, while this poll of the district has a 10% Obama no-show rate relative to Mccain voters.
Only those dwelling in PPP-land can explain why twice as many Obama voters will absitain from voting in this suburban district compared to the rest of the state, but whatever, it’s just notable this sample more favorable to Lundgren than the statewide one.
Bottom line, Bera is running 3% behind Obama in the sample, which means he’ll lose if voter turnout mirrors 2008. On the other hand, changing the minds of a couple percent of voters and getting a few more previous voters more to the polls is not an impossible task.
(Fire up those redistricting apps in any case. This is one district that should be able to be made blue.)