• AK-Sen: If anything makes clear the depth of the NRSC’s change of allegiance from Lisa Murkowski to Joe Miller, check out the list of five different NRSC-organized, Senator-filled fundraisers that’ll be held on Miller’s behalf next week. Murkowski, meanwhile, is shrugging off the loss of her leadership post (which went to John Barrasso) and ranking committee position, seeming more focused on the mechanics of her write-in bid. She’s going to have to do a little better than this, though (although Alaska doesn’t require precise spelling of write-ins): the original version of the ad telling people about her write-in bid directed people to a URL that misspelled her name (LisaMurkwski.com). (I wonder if some cybersquatter has already grabbed that URL by now?)
• AR-Sen: Ipsos, on behalf of Reuters, is out with a look at Arkansas, a Senate race that’s hardly worth looking at anymore. Nevertheless, they show a closer race than anybody else has lately: Blanche Lincoln trails John Boozman by “only” 14, a 53-39 gap among LVs. Lincoln’s favorables seem to be improving a bit too, but time’s running out for a full-fledged comeback.
• CO-Sen: Here’s a tantalizing tidbit, although it doesn’t have any bearing on the current race, just likely to exacerbate the seemingly-escalating war between the NRSC and Jim DeMint. It turns out the NRSC gave the maximum $42K to Jane Norton, just four days before the GOP primary. Not much of a vote of confidence in Ken Buck, is it?
• NH-Sen: Unfortunately, where many Republican primaries have dissolved into acrimony afterwards, we’re seeing lots of unity in New Hampshire. Ovide Lamontagne is helping to raise funds for narrow victor Kelly Ayotte at a DC fundraiser scheduled for Sep. 27.
• WA-Sen: Considering the play this has gotten in the local press, this small comment on a parochial issue looks to be a major faceplant for Dino Rossi… he dared depart from the party line on the mighty Boeing. He suggested that Boeing should get no favorable treatment from the Pentagon in its competition with Airbus (whose efforts are subsidized by European governments) over who gets to build the next-generation Air Force tanker. (To put that in context, that would be like a candidate going to Iowa and dissing ethanol, or going to West Virginia and dissing coal.) Boeing had already explicitly endorsed Patty Murray, but now she has a nuclear-grade weapon to use against Rossi in the Boeing-dependent swingy suburbs.
And here’s a hat tip to Horsesass’s Goldy, who spots some interesting details in the fine print of that Elway Poll from last week. People were surprised when that CNN/Time poll found a reverse enthusiasm gap for the Dems in Washington (with Murray faring better among LVs than RVs), but Elway actually shows something similar. The 50-41 topline was LVs, but pushed leaners. Include only the “definite voters” and that pushes up to a 13-pt lead for Murray (43-30). I don’t have one good explanation for this phenomenon, but I’d guess it’s a combination of a) Dems being more diehard liberal in Washington and less swingy and/or sporadic than in other states, b) the economy being somewhat better in Washington than many other places, and c) teabagger ennui after Clint Didier lost the primary to establishment leftover Dino Rossi.
• NM-Gov: We’ve got dueling banjos internals in the Land of Enchantment. Susana Martinez whipped it out first, rolling out a POS poll from last week with a 50-40 lead for her. Not to be outdone, Diane Denish pulled out her own poll from GQR from the same timeframe, showing that Martinez is leading “only” 49-44. Um… take that?
• NY-Gov: Rick Lazio is hedging on what exactly he’s going to do with his spot on the Conservative Party line, sounding like he wants to wait and see how Carl Paladino fares before making up his mind. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo got a pretty significant endorsement, from NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, which may sway a few moderate indies but is probably mostly helpful from a GOTV organizational standpoint within the city. Meanwhile, you might have also heard something about a poll of this race today? I’ve heard a few rumblings. Anyway, we’re deferring discussion of today’s Quinnipiac poll until the Siena and SurveyUSA polls, due tomorrow, also come out, offering us a better yardstick.
• RI-Gov, RI-01: Quest for WJAR-TV (9/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Frank Caprio (D): 36
John Robitaille (R): 13
Lincoln Chafee (I): 24
Ken Block (M): 2
Undecided: 25David Cicilline (D): 49
John Loughlin (R): 26
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4.7%)
This is probably the biggest lead we’ve seen for Frank Caprio in the Governor’s race, and also the first post-primary poll of the race in the 1st, which looks to be an easy race for Providence mayor David Cicilline despite being an open seat in a dangerous year. The poll also finds the Dems easily winning the LG, AG, SoS, and RI-02 races.
• TN-Gov: Crawford Johnson and Northcott for WSMV-TV (registered voters, trendlines from early July):
Mike McWherter (D): 24 (34)
Bill Haslam (R): 55 (60)
Undecided: 19 (6)
(MoE: ±4%)
I’m not going out on a limb by saying we can expect Bill Haslam to win the Tennessee governor’s race. The only odd thing here is that this is WSMV’s second poll of the race, and the number of undecideds has shot up dramatically since July (of course, it’s a mystery how there were so few back then).
• FL-22: Anzalone-Liszt for Ron Klein (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):
Ron Klein (D): 48
Allen West (R): 40
(MoE: ±4.4%)
While this isn’t an awe-inspiring lead for Klein in his own internal, it’s a good topline and there are some interesting numbers in the fine print. Most notably, West’s unfavorables have tripled (to 26%) since May as people have started paying attention.
• MA-04: OMG, even Barney Frank’s in trouble! (In case you couldn’t tell, I was being sarcastic.) (Or was I?) Anyway, the Republican candidate running against Frank, Sean Bielat, is out with a poll from GOP pollster On Message giving Frank a 48-38 lead over Bielat. I suppose a ceiling of 38% is plausible for a no-name GOPer in this part of Massachusetts, which went 63% for Obama but includes a lot of exurbs and went narrowly for Scott Brown in the special election, but I’m unclear on how he gets much further than that.
• PA-03: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, registered voters, no trendlines):
Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 38
Mike Kelly (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.8%)
This seems to be the first truly independent poll of this race, although we’ve seen various internals and Republican third-party polls all showing Dahlkemper in trouble, though not always losing. Franklin & Marshall opts for the “losing” side, although it’s slightly less severe among RVs (42-38).
• VA-05: Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):
Tom Perriello (D): 44
Rob Hurt (R): 46
Jeff Clark (I): 4
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Not much difference here than that DCCC poll by Global Strategy Group a few weeks ago that also saw Perriello down by 2. Again, not the most appetizing numbers for rolling out when it’s your own internal, but at least it’s some pushback against those SurveyUSA numbers.
• WA-09: Benenson Strategy Group for Adam Smith (9/18-20, likely voters, no trendlines):
Adam Smith (D): 54
Dick Muri (R): 35
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Hmmm, speaking of pushback against SurveyUSA numbers, here’s an internal from the Adam Smith camp (who were seen as being in a close race in a public poll from over the weekend). Now these are the kind of internal poll numbers we like to see… although the very fact that Adam Smith should have to be releasing internal polls in the first place is, well, a sign of the times.
• DCCC: Here’s some interesting money shuffling from the DCCC, which might portend an increased focus on GOTV. A CQ piece detailing some miscellany from their report this month included a number of transfers from the DCCC to state Democratic party committees. That includes $196K to Ohio, $142K to Arizona, and $132K to Arizona.
• American Crossroads: Wasn’t the “Crossroads” myth about selling your soul to the devil? At any rate, Politico is out with a nauseating story that’s a stark counterpoint to the normal old committee numbers that we released this morning: while the Dems have advantages at the committee level, they’re getting crushed in outside TV spending by third-party groups, to the tune of $23.6 million for GOP ads to $4.8 million for Dem ads. (Of course, some of that is money that in previous cycles would have gone to the RNC, which is way out of whack (or “wack,” as Michael Steele might say) and unable to do much with its usual task of helping state committees… making the GOP more reliant than ever on hoping that their air saturation can overcome disadvantages in the ground game.)
The largest of these groups, of course, is American Crossroads, which is out with six new attack ads in different Senate races: Illinois ($482K), Kentucky ($235K), Nevada ($320K), New Hampshire ($643K), Ohio ($260K), and Pennsylvania ($226K). I know the teabaggers like to think that when the 2010 election is written in the history books, the story will be about some sort of populist uprising, but more likely, their useful idiocy will be long forgotten and the story will be about the uprising of a dozen or so billionaires, leveraging tens of millions on ads in order to save themselves hundreds of billions in taxes.
• SSP TV:
• CT-Sen: The state Democratic party goes after Linda McMahon, looking at job cuts she oversaw at WWE
• MO-Sen: The DSCC wades back into Missouri, looking at how Roy Blunt keeps his corruption all in the family
• MD-Gov: A DGA-allied group hits Bob Ehrlich for being in the pocket of utilities during and after his gubernatorial term
• IL-10: Dan Seals goes negative against Bob Dold!, hitting him on social security and abortion rights
• IL-14: Nancy Pelosi’s coming for you! Booogetyboogetyboogety! (or so says Randy Hultgren’s second ad)
• NC-02: Renee Elmers found the money to run an ad? Well, it is cable only… Anyway, it’s about the Burlington Coat Factory mosque, despite that Bob Etheridge says he doesn’t support it
• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski again goes negative on Lou Barletta on the bread and butter stuff, hitting for him opposition to a State Department security forces training center for the district
• PA-17: Even Tim Holden’s hitting the airwaves with two different ads, one that’s a soft bio spot for himself, and then an attack on his opponent’s role in legislative pay raises
• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s second ad is against negative against Dave Reichert, especially for opposing financial reform
• Rasmussen:
• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 47%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%
• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 27%, Paul LePage (R) 45%, Eliot Cutler (I) 14%
• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero (D) 38%, Rick Snyder (R) 51%
• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 58%, Jay Townsend (R) 36%
I wonder what on behind the scenes to keep that – it will be a boon for her to continue fund-raise from big oil, and shows Alaskans exactly what they’d be losing – ranking member on a very important committee to Alaskans.
It also shows that the GOP still has some good will towards Murkowski and that she’ll caucus with them should she win.
I wonder how Miller will react to this.
I figured that would be one of the first to fall. In FL-22 I really doubt Allen West has a chance, a lot of the argument for him is he held Klein to a 55-45 win in 08 but the district is very strictly partisanly divided so thats not a real surprise (it voted 52-48 for Gore Kerry and Obama). If Klein had been in his 10th term or something then the Clay Shaw lopsided margins in the district would be true for him but a 55-45 win is not unimpressive in such an unchanging and oddly shaped district district. The only way Allen wins is if the top of the republican ticket wins the district and the republicans that voted for Klein in 08 decide to vote for the guy they voted against two years ago. Since the senate race is split 3 ways and Sink is probably going to win the district I don’t think he’ll pull it out.
To potentially split the GOP vote with Doheny?
the other day when I said Lincoln would have been in much better condition had the unions not spent 10 million dollars going nuclear against her? Or the imbecile that said Gilbert Baker would have beaten her?
This race will probably be 54-46. Even Obama can’t destroy the state’s Democratic infrastructure and Democratic leanings that quickly. I think AR Dems hold out decently; they’ll hold on to every other statewide office and two of the state’s 4 House Seats in my opinion. Plus retain large strength in the legislature. People have been predicting the collapse of the WV-DP for a decade now, since the heavy shift to Bush in 2000, (similarly to Arkansas’s shift in 2008, only even more dramatic), and it hasn’t occurred at any level thus far; in fact since then you could say the WV-GOP has gotten weaker in depth at all levels.
Lincoln overreacted to begin with, and that hurt her, trying to play every side of the issue on HCR. Then John Boozman, a non-crazy Republican got in and made it tougher for her, and he got in partially due to good early polling and partially due to the establishment’s anticipation that Halter was preparing a run, even back in late January. Thus Lincoln had to spend four months and a few million dollars not on attacking Boozman, but on defending herself from countless negative assaults and on Halter in the primary, thus putting her in a deeper hole time wise and position wise than she would have been.
In the end, the truth remains that Boozman is a completely limp, uninspiring candidate, particularly on the stump, with no connection to the non AR-03 portion of the state and very little money. To top it off there pretty much is no AR-GOP; the Democratic party here has an institutional and organizational advantage here similar to the one Republicans have, in say, Idaho or Kansas, and perhaps even greater, and that is worth some 5-10 points in polling position.
This race might tighten further. I would never have written it off until the primary went so harshly. But even now Lincoln has a lot more money than Boozman and plenty of time to keep localizing the race as she has been doing. I’ve felt Mason-Dixon has been way too favorable to Boozman, and they have a shaky record here anyway, and of the main, non-Rasmussen polls, (or, as I like to say with AR, ridiculous polls, dating back to the tightness they showed in Beebe’s race in 2006), they are the only ones with any real record to go off.
I’ve been trying to tell people the same thing about Chad Causey; his opponent has very little money, and, of all the Arkansas districts, Republican organization is actually WEAKEST in AR-01, which has not sent a Republican to congress since reconstruction. Jay Dickey held AR-04 until he decided it was a good idea to vote for Clinton’s impeachment and Mike Ross showed him the flaw in such reasoning back in 2000. But no Republican has even performed well in AR-01 in recent history. So add 10 points to Democratic position in the polls and that gives you an idea of what the race will look like on election day.
Yup, someone’s already all over it:
http://www.LisaMurkwski.com
(etc, etc)
Don’t they a big center in Tacoma? My impression was that this could help her eke by a win in swingish Pierce county, which essentially ends all possible avenues for Rossi to win. All she really has to do to win statewide is narrowly win Snohomish and piece, get big margins in Jefferson and Thurston, and dominate King county. Democrats don’t have to do much to win statewide in Washington. Its been 16 years since any Republican won a top of the ticket race, if you are of the view that Rossi legitimately lost in 2004, as I am.
I think it’s pretty good and it warming.
Elmer’s ad sucks beyond words. This is nothing more than words of hatred and bigotry from her campaign.
This is nothing new with Etheridge. Back in 1996, the incumbent Republican David Funderburke was spouting out rumors that Etheridge was gay (something about Etheridge’s support for gay rights within the NC school system). Funderburke’s campaign even aired words that said something to the effect “Etheridge wants to go to congress to support his homosexual agenda”. It failed in 1996, and this will fail again in 2010.
It’s not just that I disagree with the message, but this is the shittiest way to do a first ad. It should either be a positive bio spot or an ad on the economy, not something immaterial to an election like that Islamic Community Center.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo…
If she were railing against the insurance mandate provision, this wouldn’t be a big deal, but her belittling autism is to an extent. Why? Because I have autism spectrum disorder and I had a really hard childhood of isolation and despair. Luckily, my family could afford psychological help that really helped me understand my condition and how to function better. I was lucky. I’ve known people with the same condition who have tried to commit suicide.
Treatment for autism is not something unnecessary. It saves lives and provides hope and healing.
http://www.facebook.com/video/…
This one is really good IMO. No cheesy “Pinocchio” gimmicks but cold, hard facts. Love that he emphasized education.
fully agree with your choice to wait to release the NY poll. That has outlier written all over it. If the other polls tomorrow confirm it then I will look like a fool but in the meantime I would put my money on a combo of outlier and primary bump but mainly outlier. I am not one to look at a poll I dislike and scream that its crap but I fully doubt that it is that close. Again if other polling confirms it then I will look foolish but that is a risk I am willing to take.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Great message in LA. But what’s up with the long pause at the end? Reminds me of Ben Quayle!
However if I own a company and then run for office one day are people going to attack me for laying someone off no matter what? It is a legit issue, don’t get me wrong.
I see its PA poll was posted at the top of the page, but here are some more, if they haven’t been posted yet:
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Should be a doozy!!
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
I wonder if he could win? Would he take enough Dems that are afraid of letting O’Donnell win? Would he get enough Republicans? I know he’d win Independents.
http://www.wgrz.com/news/local…
She’s trailing everywhere but NYC.
Schumer by 16
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…
http://whyy.org/cms/news/gover…
No numbers. They usually have a high undecided.
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
House – Republicans gain 32.
Republican pickups (37): AR-01, AR-02, AZ-01, AZ-05, CO-03, CO-04, FL-02, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-08, KS-03, LA-03, MD-01, MI-01, MI-07, MS-01, ND-AL, NH-02, NY-19, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-11, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, TX-23, VA-02, VA-05, WA-03, WI-07, WI-08
Democratic pickups (5): DE-AL, FL-25, HI-01, IL-10, LA-02
Senate – Republicans gain 6.
Republican pickups (6): AR, CO, IN, ND, PA, WI
Governors – Republicans gain 6.
Republican pickups (13): IA, IL, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, OR, PA, TN, WI, WY
Democratic pickups (7): CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, RI, VT
The PA-03 link is actually Florida’s polling memo… electoral-vote is saying that Rep. Fattah is DOWN 4 in his race? Huh? It’s the same F&M poll that has Rep. Dahlkemper down 4. Looking for more information on that…