SSP Daily Digest: 9/23 (Afternoon Edition)

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck is running back to the middle, or at least the far right field instead of completely out of the ballpark, as he faces a close race in the general. He’s backing down on his previous support of Colorado’s “personhood” amendment (granting legal rights to embryos) that’s on Colorado’s ballot again, saying he’s against it despite loudly touting it during his primary bid.

• NV-Sen: Observers are wondering if this is Sharron Angle’s true chickens-for-checkups moment (in a campaign that’s already littered with quotes that contend for that honor). A video from a 2009 tea party rally by a Dem tracker shows Angle taking issue with a recently passed Nevada state law requires insurance carriers to cover “autism.” (And yes, she makes exaggerated air quotes while saying “autism.”) I suppose she thinks it’s nothing a good massage, sauna, and some aromatherapy can’t fix.

• CO-Gov: While John Hickenlooper seems to skate toward the Governor’s Mansion, Dan Maes and Tom Tancredo are descending even more comically into fighting to see who can garner a smaller share of the minority. Maes just called Tancredo “an illegal immigrant” (given Tanc’s fixations, probably the single worst thing he could be called) in the gubernatorial race, seeing as how he “cheated his way in the back door.”

• ID-01: Another day, another endorsement for Walt Minnick from another conservative organization looking to back one token Dem as a badge of bipartisanship. Today, he became the only Dem with the seal of approval from the Citizens Against Government Waste PAC.

• KY-06: Republican challenger Andy Barr, having been on the very wrong end of a couple Democratic polls in the last few weeks (giving Ben Chandler 20 and 14 point leads), comes out with his own internal to demonstrate that he’s not that dead yet. His own poll, from the Tarrance Group, gives Chandler only a 49-42 lead, in the wake of Chandler attack ads tying Barr to his previous boss, disgraced ex-Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

• PA-08: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 35

Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 49

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s unexpected to see Patrick Murphy, in the friendlier confines of the 8th, in worse shape than Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd (trailing narrowly in a different F&M poll with the same timeframe). He’s down 46-36 among RVs.

• PA-11: The Realtors® ride to Paul Kanjorski’s rescue yet again! I’m not sure why they have such love for Kanjo in particular among Dems, but today they’re slapping down $243K on his behalf. Recall that they spent over $1.3 million saving his hide in 2008.

• TX-17: Wow, that’s a big lead. Republican pollster OnMessage, on behalf of Bill Flores, gives their client a 55-36 lead over Dem incumbent Chet Edwards, over 9/19-20. I wonder if this’ll motivate Edwards, who notoriously holds his cards close to his vest, to roll out a response (if he has one). The article also notes that AFF is going on the air in the district with a new ad tying Edwards to (gee, guess who) Nancy Pelosi.

• DSCC: Reid Wilson has three new big buys from the DSCC in key states: $335K in Colorado, $235K in Illinois, and $470K in Pennsylvania.

• Redistricting: Here’s an interesting piece from Josh Goodman, for those of you among us who like looking at long lists of population figures. (I know I do.) It suggests that the redistricting axe is going to have to fall hardest on rural areas, which is a positive note for Dems; Census data (based on the 2009 ACS… you’re going to have to wait a few more months for 2010 data!) shows that the almost all of nation’s largest cities have grown (some remarkably so) or at least held steady.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina calls Barbara Boxer “arrogant,” citing her notorious examination of Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo has a target-rich environment for negative ads with Carl Paladino; one hit from his new ad includes Paladino’s job creation record (or lack thereof)

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland belatedly tries out “You want angry? I’ll give you angry!”

• OR-Gov: The SEIU hits Chris Dudley on his proposed income tax cuts for the wealthy

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi does the jujitsu move on Jim Gerlach’s hits on his residency, pointing he was busy, y’know, serving the military overseas during the years in question

• AJS: Americans for Job Securities targets four Dem-held seats with cookie-cutter neg ads: IN-08, OH-18, PA-04, and PA-07.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 55%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Nathan Deal (R) 45%, John Monds (L) 5%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 44%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 45%, Rick Berg (R) 48%

129 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/23 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. I think this one might be on the verge of being gone, despite all the electoral might Chet Edwards has had in the past.  This just isn’t a good year to be stuck in an R+20 district.  

    I just hope that this poll isn’t a canary in the coal mine, portending bad news for people like Jim Matheson, Dan Boren, and Gene Taylor, all of whom are defending hugely R districts as well.  It’s naive to think that those seats couldn’t flip in a wave.  

  3. that Cqpolitics has made a couple of inexplicable shifts recently. Like FL-24 to leans Republican, MD-01 to leans Republican, CA-03 to toss up, CO-04 to leans Republican, IL-11 to leans Republican, (based on nothing but a couple of really sketchy polls), TN-08 to leans Republican, and GA-08 to toss up. I’m even skeptical about why they have FL-25 as leans Republican and NH-02 as leans Republican.

    I’m more positive abut NH-02 than most here. Mcluster is a fundraising machine, and a non-stop campaigner. Bass has struck me as very languid this time around. She is, on paper, a much stronger candidate than Hodes was in 2006, of course the environment is tougher now, but still. Bass has plenty of baggage, all she needs to do is start airing ads from 2006, where Bass said things like, “The terrorists want the Democrats to win” and to start harping on him for his conservative voting record and positions and whatnot. Hodes at the top of the ballot should help. Because it looks like that race will be close and if it is he should definitely narrowly win his district and I can’t see voters voting for him and Bass. It would be interesting if Mcluster pulls it off, as does Shea-Porter; then NH would have an all female congressional delegation.

    In other news, Spitzer chose to come out of his hole today to say:

    Check out our other sites: Political Dictionary and Political Job Hunt

    September 23, 2010

    Spitzer Says Cuomo is “Dirtiest, Nastiest” Player

    In a fascinating interview on CNN, former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) makes clear he’s not a big fan of Andrew Cuomo (D).

    Said Spitzer: “The problem that Andrew has is that everybody knows that behind the scenes, he is the dirtiest, nastiest political player out there and that is his reputation from years in Washington.”

    “When his father was governor, he was the tough guy. He has brass knuckles and he played hard ball. He has a lot of enemies out there. Nobody’s been willing to stand up to him. When it appeared he was going to win, it was inevitable. If it appears not to be inevitable, things may change.”

    “He has a lot of folks, he’s really been on the wrong side of who may stand up and say, wait a minute, he may not want to pretend he plays that game. He does, and he’s worse at it.”

    But in better news Linda McMahon is getting slammed for talking about abolishing the Department of Education, and she’s been getting more hits lately about WWE related events, (I think Blumenthal’s lead should be a bit bigger next time Q-Pac polls the state).

    I just had one last question, does Taegan Goddard ever have anything positive, or even balanced, to say about Democrats? I really can’t seem to find much. The first time he mentions WA-Sen as improving for Democrats is to use the close SUSA poll, not any of the other polls to come out giving her a bigger lead.  

  7. http://www.politico.com/news/s…

    The funny thing is, I could totally see Castle serving as an Independent Senator. That said, I have doubts he could actually win as a write-in…

    Democrat – 45%

    GOP – 34%

    Independent – 21%

    Coons – 77/3/33 = 41%

    O’Donnell – 3/62/27 = 28%

    Castle – 20/35/40 = 31%

  10. I’m not sure if the new R-J poll coming out this weekend will catch any of it, but Angle’s “Autism-gate” just blew whatever credibility she was hoping to have in calling Reid “out of touch”. She’s trying to change the subject with her new immigration ad, but I seriously doubt that will do much if the media keep talking about this.

  11. But quite expected. He should have come out in support of a different HCR. Alabama voters love free subsidies, but not so much the mandates.

    I wonder if Bentley will win in the 7th.

  13. Jumping off a point made in the comments, Harry Reid calls Chris Coons his pet; the Democrat has issue a statement denying that he’s a Marxist, and now Mike Castle may split the vote three ways….  Man, who put the hex on Chris Coons? Er, don’t answer that.

    If O’Donnell wins, I will seriously question if she really is a witch

  15. The mere fact that Harry Reid is not leading the polls by 30+ points proves to me that Senator Reid is not popular in Nevada.  Sharron Angle is a fucking crazy lunatic.  As we get closer to November, I can see many of the Nevada voters saying “You know, I really don’t like Reid, but that Sharron Angle is nuts!”.

  16. So, I was reading about some of the local races in 2007 in Jefferson Parish, the suburbs of New Orleans. I found out some interesting, crazy stuff. One of the at large parish-councilmen got a divorce from his wife a few months before the election. Their son filed to run against him for the seat. She filed to run against a state senator, who had just recently divorced her husband and was now dating the councilman. That same councilman is now a heavy favorite to become President of the largest parish in LA this October.  

  17. Electoral-vote.com is touting a Franklin & Marshall College poll stating that Chaka Fattah is LOSING to Rick Hellberg, 38% to 42%. I haven’t found any other information about this poll even mentioned anywhere else. Please tell me they screwed up something.  

  19. If the Alaska board of elections is going to be as liberal as they say with voter intent, why doesn’t a democrat with a similar name register? Or hell, change their name to the mispelling she had in her ad and run as a write-in? SHe probably won’t win, but it could make the difference.

    Although after typing that out, it would help Miller more than Mcadams barring a surge on Mcadams behalf.

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