368 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. This latest one is a web ad on Sandoval and the budget. I was really wondering how Rory could pull it off, but now I see it… Sandoval may just end up being the NV GOP’s version of Martha Coakley. Or maybe not. It just seems Rory keep kicking his campaign into high gear, and Sandoval expects to coast. This certainly explains last week’s POS poll showing Sandoval only up 6.

  2. Tomorrow I’m canvasing again for Cedric Richmond and Charlie Melancon through OfA.  If I have time I may also help the Caroline Fayard for Lt. Gov campaign.  What about you?

  4. Might be a bit off topic given it would be a 2012 race, but has Jim Webb announced re-election plans yet?  I wanted to donate to him, but I wanted to make sure he was running again.  I’ve seen money numbers that tell me he’s considering a run, but at the very least we need to stop a George Allen comeback.  

  6. I’m interested. I wish see if P Shumlin in emerging, and they are some statewide races what I would like to see (VT-LG, VT-SA, VT-SoS).

  7. imagine that one particular election at least a decade in the past went another way.  A candidate didn’t run, s/he lost, the primary went a different way, etc and describe timeline and the modern day repercussions.  for anyone playing, don’t be a dick like “tom foley never won election and a bunch of kids remained innocent.”  Here’s mine.

    1990 Vermont Governor Madeline kunin retires and after mild flirtation with the race, former governor snelling decides not to run.  former house nominee peter welch runs and narrowly wins election and spends the next 8 years as governor.  in 1998 he retires and howard deans runs for governor.  dean had retired from the lieutenant governor’s position two terms earlier, but had enough good will to secure the nomination.  then state treasurer jim douglas challenged dean and due to a lackluster year in local politics resulting in a strong third party split, douglas narrowly wins election.  with douglas in office during the year 2000, civil unions never pass and gay marriage is set back years.  the moral is, sometimes a republican winning (Snelling, not douglas in 2000) is better, if looked at down the long run

  11. http://www.wibw.com/politics/h…

    Did they have a strong personal relationship in the House or is he maybe considering a run for pres? He’s campaigned for Rick Scott and will campaign for John Stephen, in two important states, so could he really be thinking about it? I just find it strange he would endorse Moran, someone who needs no help.  

  13.    OK, I am not especially interested in Bachmann v. Clark.  But Bachmann claims to have raised $3.4 million just this past quarter.  That’s ridiculous.

  15. Maybe we’ll finally get to replace them. Some of the newer younger African-Americans in Congress will have some real potential. Not to mention some of the older ones have kind of outstayed their welcome.

  17. Political Wire is reporting that McClatchy had Marist do surveys in these three Senate races, and we’re down 50-42 in CO; 52-45 in WI; and 51-42 in PA.  They show Hickenlooper up 48-29-19, with Maes in 3rd.

    I’ve had these 3 along with ND, AR, and IN as lost seats, with CO, WI, and PA still winnable.  But I’m increasingly convinced they’re not winnable anymore.  I’ve kept wanting to believe Bennet and Russ could still come back, but they’re not moving numbers at all even though what I’ve read says that Russ’ ads have been good and Bennet has run a better campaign than Buck.  At this point it would be an upset if we win any of the 3.

    I seriously and INCREASINGLY view AK-Sen as a more likely win than any of those 6.  The unusual situation up there means it likely will break late, and McAdams has a better shot at moving numbers the last month than anyone who has tried and failed for so many months.

    And I’m not sure McAdams has any LESS a shot than Conway against Paul at this point.  Seriously.  Conway, like Feingold and Buck and Sestak, has been at it for months without moving numbers hardly at all.

    Maybe there still will be late surprises in our favor, but the hill gets only steeper as the election gets closer.

  21. Newsweek has a new poll that has results that are beyond bizarre. The poll surveys 902 registered voters and 768 “definite voters”. (?) Among RV’s, 305 (33.8%) are Republicans, 327 (36.3%) are Democrats, and 234 (25.9%) are independents.

    According to the survey, Democrats LEAD Republicans 48-43 among RVs and 50-42 (!) among “definite voters.” Obama’s approval is at 48% (disapproval 46%), and Democrats LEAD on all issues:

    …in the NEWSWEEK Poll, voters said they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle pretty much every problem currently facing the country: Afghanistan (by 6 points), health care (by 12), immigration (by 2, though that figure is within the margin of error), Social Security (by 14), unemployment (by 12), financial reform (by 14), energy (by 19), and education (by 19). Voters even prefer Democrats to Republicans on federal spending (by 4 points), taxes (by 5), and the economy (by 10)-the GOP’s core concerns. The only area where Republicans outpoll Democrats is the issue of terrorism, where they lead by a 6-point margin.

    They also find that…

    …despite months of media coverage insisting that voters are “mad as hell and not going to take it anymore,” anger is unlikely to decide this year’s elections. For starters, self-described angry voters constitute only 23 percent of the electorate, and there’s no reason to believe that they’re more likely to cast ballots in November than their calmer peers. Why? Because the percentage of angry voters who say they will definitely vote in the midterms is statistically indistinguishable from the overall percentage of voters who say the same thing (84 percent vs. 81 percent). In fact, majorities of voters say they would not be more likely to vote for candidates who express anger at Washington incumbents (60 percent), Wall Street bankers (52 percent), the illegal-immigration problem (53 percent), the Gulf of Mexico oil spill (65 percent), or health-care reform (55 percent).  Fifty-three percent of voters see Obama’s unemotional approach to politics-his “coolness”-as a positive, versus only 39 percent who don’t.

    I’ll be jumping for joy if these results are indicative of November, but these fly in the face of virtually every other survey that has been conducted. Sure, there’s been a bit of a Democratic uptick on the generic ballot and individual House polls, but for the election to completely transform from a strongly Republican/anti-incumbent cycle to a status quo/lean-Dem election?

    Any thoughts on this? I’d love for these to be true, but I’m skeptical. At the very least, though, maybe this illustrates some positive trends for Dems that could make November less bad than we’re anticipating.

    Links:

    Newsweek Writeup: http://www.newsweek.com/2010/1…

    Poll (PDF): http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws….

  23. Someone wins an election as a write in, but they did not run a write in campaign and they do not want the job? Does it go to the second place winner?  

  24. I don’t think there will be a predictions thread for a single run-off, but do we have any predictions for the LA-03 run-off, and any other LA races people may be interested in?

    LA-03:

    Landry 56

    Downer 44

    Late endorsement from 3rd place Kristian Magar helps Downer make it much closer than expected

    LA Lt Gov:

    Dardenne: 35

    Fayard: 22

    Kershaw: 21

    Villere: 9

    Davis: 6

    Geautreaux: 5

    other: 2

    This race is important b/c the winner could very well be the next governor of LA. Not too many people think Jindal will complete his second term.

    Jefferson Parish Pres special election:

    Not like anyone here cares, but President of the largest Parish would be a big help in a future race, and the  likely winner has expressed an interest in a congressional run before, raising money for an LA-01 bid in 2008 when Jindal was elected gov, before backing out.

    John Young (R): 90

    Larry Haas (D): 10  

  25. Now I did not think this Deputy Prosecutor thing was a big deal, although Hill did mention it in an attack ad. But I, on this blog, saw a google ad saying this:

    Todd Young for Congress

    Former Marine and Deputy Prosecutor is running for Congress in IN-09

    He already said he was sorry if he misrepresented his service yet he still has this ad. Seriously?

  33. I found him in Iowa House district 51:

    In his [Carroll Area Development Corporation] appearance at the Carrollton Centre, Dirkx said eastern Iowa shouldn’t rely so heavily on the government in the wake of floods, and he acknowledged that he doesn’t “know much” about what the Iowa Department of Economic Development does.

    CADC executive director Jim Gossett asked Dirkx directly what legislation he most favored and found most offensive in the 2010 session in Des Moines, Dirkx did not name a single bill, issue or program.

    “I wouldn’t even want to say one way or another,” Dirkx said. “I remember last March when the (Des Moines) Register came out with the two or three pages of what got done and the two or three pages of what didn’t get done, I thought, ‘Man, I got a chunk of information here.’ I took it home and dropped it on the kitchen table. There are currently 13 people living in my house. I haven’t seen it and I haven’t taken time to research it. So to answer your question, don’t know.”

    Another doozy:

    Moving to economic matters, Dirkx takes issue with government’s involvement in flood and disaster relief. An estimated $4.1 billion in state and federal funds have been committed to recovery from the flooding and tornadoes of 2008 in Iowa.

    “When people hear the word ‘FEMA’ they must just think that money falls out of the sky because there’s no shame in taking money from FEMA,” Dirkx said, referring to Federal Emergency Management Agency programs.

    Dirkx said that, counter-intuitively, poor people may be better off in a flood than those with means.

    “The people that are the bottom of the food chain, and they’re affected in a negative way by a deluge of water, in my world, if I was at that part of the food chain that would be a good thing because there are people that have money, and people that have money would have a mess, and the people that don’t have money can clean up their mess and then the people who have money can pay the people who don’t have money and they can go buy food,” Dirkx said. “That’s the way the economy works. You don’t just give things to people.”

    OK, just one more:

    “I was asked the other night in an in-home meet-and-greet, ‘If you could make one law, what would that law be?’ Just off the top of my head, I said, ‘A law that you can make no more laws,'” Dirkx said.

    This is one of the Iowa Democrats’ better pickup opportunities in the Iowa House, where our current majority is 56-44.  

  35. Martinez apparently led Democrat Diane Denish by 6 points in the survey overall – 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided if the election were held at the time of the Sept. 27-30 poll.

    Her lead grew to 49 percent to 42 percent when “leaners” – undecided voters leaning toward voting for one candidate – were included and was even wider, at 49 percent to 39 percent, among those surveyed who voted in both the 2006 and 2008 general elections.

    http://twitter.com/ashtacho

  36. Brown picks up the SacBee (Sacramento), SF Chronicle, and LA Times endorsements. (Whitman probably made the Chronicle’s decision even easier when she didn’t care to visit the Chronicle’s editorial board which was a first since every statewide candidate, GOP or Dem always payed a visit to the Chronicle’s editorial board.)

    They all stress one point, Jerry Brown is experienced while Meg Whitman is an inexperienced novice with a huge pocketbook.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/op…

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…

    http://www.sacbee.com/2010/10/…

  39. A large majority of the counties there are African America, yet the state is Dominated by Conservative Republicans?  WTF? Same thing goes for Mississippi.  When are national dems going to try to get these people to vote?!

  43. With the Dem meltdown in the midwest and Ron Johnson and Scott Walker looking at big wins, is Ron Kind in trouble now? The AAN has invested a ton of money in that district.  

  44. We polled CO Gov, CO Sen, CT Sen, CT Gov, Both NY-Sen, and NY-Gov this weekend. Only 1 of them in single digits

    Am I wrong in guessing that CO Gov, CT Sen, CT Gov, NY-Sen, and NY-Gov are all double digit leads for Dems and that the single digit race is CO-Sen?

    If so, that is excellent news.

  45. Who, so far, has run the best and worst campaign of the cycle?

    Governor:

    Best: Rick Snyder

    Worst: Dan Maes

    Senate:

    Best: Ron Johnson

    Worst: Lee Fisher

    House:

    Best: lots of good ones, need time to think

    Worst: Panic! At Tedisco

  49. is about two weeks old, but some conservative leaning PAC is airing (or was) an radio ad attacking Lisa Murkowski for pursuing her write in candidacy. Listen to it yourself, its quite funny.

  50. MyDD used to be one of my favorites.  It was great, until a sore turn it took in 2008 that I won’t harp on here.

    So for the first time perhaps in months I visit there tonight, to find this from site owner Jerome Armstrong……

    I took a journey through punditland this morning for the latest on their forecasts for the GE:

    Before getting to the guys who just want to be right, there’s:

    SSP’s prediction that the Democrats will only lose a net of 5 seats for sure, and another 40 Democratic seats are toss-ups– split those, and you have a projection of losing 25 seats.

    Ugh, the owner of the site cannot properly read and understand race ratings provided in the same format as Charlie Cook, who gets paid “to be right.”

    I will not go back there.

    Thank God for SSP, not just a great site but the smartest moderators and community participation in political bloggery.

  51. Good small bit of news, I just looked at Rothenberg’s 9/30 race ratings update tonight and saw that his few updates included downgrading Dan Lungren from “lean R” to “tossup/tilt R.”  In contrast, he still leaves FL-25 at lean R.

    Yet again the nonpartisan analysts actually think beating Lungren is a lower-hanging fruit for us, and much lower-hanging in any case than I would have guessed, than taking the ideologically equivalent open seat against a flawed GOP candidate.

    His only other move benefiting us was to move Hodes’ open seat, NH-02, to “pure tossup” from whatever GOP-leaning category he previously placed it (either tossup/tilt R or lean R).  Stu is seeing what we appear to see, that Bass is sliding and Kuster rising post-primary.

    Meanwhile, he downgraded our chances of holding on in the reelections of Kilroy (now R favored and more likely to lose than Driehaus); Kanjorski (now lean R); McIntyre (don’t worry, this move from safe to D favored); Patrick Murphy (now lean D which surprises me because it means Stu had him in the largely safe “favored” category for too long); and John Salazar, Zach Space, and Scott Murphy (all down to tossup/tilt D, presumably from lean D).  Scott Murphy is a MAJOR surprise, every tea leaf I’ve seen says he’s in great shape and not that endangered the way his race has played out.

    There are plenty of other ratings he has that don’t completely comport with where I’d put things.  He actually has Dina Titus at tossup/tilt R, when I think that one should be TWO categories away at tossup/tilt D.

    It’s impossible to know with these guys how much of what they think is really inside information we don’t have, and how much is the same information we have.  I’m increasingly convinced they don’t always know any more than we do.  Jennifer Duffy at Cook moved ME-Gov from “lean D” to “tossup” just in the last week, when it should’ve been tossup early in the year and then “lean R” until maybe recently!

  52. On my facebook I have “liked” his page. Today there has been a half dozen different things posted to his wall. To me it looks like he is really revving up his campaign.  

  53. http://sundaygazettemail.com/N…

    The very last line in this article says the NRSC is making an ad that attacks Manchin on the federal investigation of his former chief of staff and new Dem party chairman Larry Puccio. What is a stronger attack on Manchin though, tying him to Obama, or making him seem corrupt? Also, the NRSC has invested 2 million in WV now. I think most of it is reserved air time, not yet spent. I would expect that they are moving money from WI (with Johnson not appearing to need the help) and KY to here.  

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