SurveyUSA (9/28-29, likely voters, 1/12-14 in parens):
Steve Driehaus (D-inc): 41 (39)
Steve Chabot (R): 53 (56)
Jim Berns (L): 3
Rich Stevenson (G): 1
Undecided: 2 (5)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Not much movement for Driehaus here since January’s brutal SUSA poll conducted for Firedoglake. The big reason for Driehaus’ predicament? African-American voters just don’t appear to be enthused — SUSA pegs the black vote at just 16% of the electorate, down from 28% in their 2008 polling.
Counter-intuitively, though, SUSA’s sub-sample of voters who say that they’ve already cast their ballots in Ohio’s early voting process (which began on Tuesday) shows Driehaus with a 53-45 lead over Chabot. Of course, it’s a tiny sample (just 6% of the broader sample), but that’s not the result you’d expect given the great weight of evidence that suggests that Democrats are facing a steep enthusiasm gap. Might Driehaus be experiencing more success in getting his supporters out to the polls early?
(Hat-tip: silver spring)
even with a 64% white, 26% black electorate, Driehaus is still trailing 45-43.
First, regarding early voting, it could just be unreliable crosstabs from a small subsample, or it could be that the state Dems are just organized on getting the early vote but it will be massively overcome on election day.
In Iowa Dems dominate early voting overwhelmingly, but the GOP destroys out Dems in election day voting.
Focusing on early voting is helpful if you can bank sporadic voters, then you gain something from it. I hope Ohio Dems are doing that.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
snip
If Democrats were only to lose 10 seats this year (or even if they were to win seats), Driehaus would probably be one of those ten Democrats to lose a seat. He won the seat in the first place in quite difficult circumstances.
When even the most optimistic forecasts are showing Democrats losing 20+ seats, and people such as Nate Silver are predicting Democrats losing ~45 seats, Driehaus is probably going to be one of the first seats lost. I just don’t see how Democrats lose 45 seats while Driehaus survives.
If its overwhelmingly republican then more cause for hope here.
Which is typical of SUSA. Although Chabot may do better than most Republicans.
I like Congressman Driehaus, but I agree with others that even if the election turns out a lot better for us than is expected, this is one of the seats that is going in the loss column (no, I’m not giving up on it completely, just trying to be realistic!).
The fact is that despite a blueish tint in the last cycle or two, the district is largely a Republican one. Cincy is one of the most racially divided cities in the country, and that bleeds into the Lib/Con divide, and add in the suburban parts of the district (which make up like half of it), in a bad year it’s brutal, especially when you have a strong Republican candidate.