Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/1-5, likely voters):
MO-Sen:
Robin Carnahan (D): 40
Roy Blunt (R): 53
(MoE: ±3.5%)
NV-Sen, NV-Gov (9/10-14 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)
Sharron Angle (R): 42 (42)
Scott Ashjian (T): 7 (5)Rory Reid (D): 33 (31)
Brian Sandoval (R): 56 (58)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Interestingly, Harry Reid’s lead actually increased among registered voters — from 42-34 in September to 43-32 today. Without Ashjian on the ballot, Angle still leads by the same margin among LVs, 47-45.
NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov:
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55
Joe DioGuardi (R): 41Andrew Cuomo (D): 55
Carl Paladino (R): 41
(MoE: ±4%)
Again, turnout is a factor here. Among RVs, Gillibrand leads DioGuardi by 60-33, and Cuomo stomps the repulsively vile Carl Paladino by 65-31. This poll also tested Chuck Schumer’s re-election, and finds him up by 57-41 over Jay Townsend.
Missouri was supposed to be our best pick up opportunity. I understand that this is a horrible cycle for us, but 13 points? Really? How bad of a campaign is Carnahan running?
CNN poll has several permutations, inc. one with Ashjian, Reid, Angle and none. Weird. Doesn’t have full ballot test.
More on CNN: Crosstabs suggest more indies than Rs or Ds, and more Rs than Ds. No way more indies turn out than Ds or Rs. #hatepubpolls
Despite the good numbers for Cuomo, Gillibrand and Schumer, what’s especially striking is the turnout gap for NY voters. Among New York Likely Voters, the survey says that Obama’s approval ratings are upside down at 45/48. Yet among the overall population it’s 56/36. If that’s accurate, that could mean big trouble for the House races in the state.
We don’t need the fifth poll of the week confirming that, in fact, Blumenthal is ahead by 10 plus or minus 4 and that Dan Malloy is also ahead.
Also CNN, please resist the urge to poll New York. They just aren’t that crazy about Carl Paladino.
Here would have been a better list for races for this week:
West Virginia (seriously need someone besides Ras and PPP here)
Wisconsin
Nevada
Missouri
Ohio, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Colorado, Washington, Pennsylvania and Illinois (they did this last week) would have all made more sense.
My fear is every race is gonna close the way Ohio has for some time, and Wisconsin and Missouri are now. For all the fantasies indulged by many about Democrats “catching up”, nine state or district polls out of 10 indicate the opposite is true….and the gap is growing.
It seems like his best hope now is that the demographic models are totally wrong (as they appear to have been in 2008).