268 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. So here’s a question. As most of you on the site know, Bobby Bright became the first incumbent Dem congressman to say he would not vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker next term. With Pelosi unpopular in many of the areas with Democratic incumbents under fire, I’m wondering how many others are going to take this stand before election night is over. Right now, I see four other possibilities:

    1). Alan Nunnelee

    2). Walt Minnick

    3). Frank Kratovil

    4). Mike Oliverio

    I know Joe Donnelly has attached the Democratic leadership, but I don’t see him actually saying he would oppose Pelosi.

    What is everyone’s thoughts.  

  2. Probably the most famous song written by a Bahamian!  Note: Despite being sung by Baha Men, ‘Who Let The Dogs Out’ was written by a Trinidadian.  

  3. Vermont is being ignored and they are some interesting elections:

    VT-Governor

    VT-Lieutenant Governor

    VT-Secretary of State

    VT-State Auditor

    I hope be lucky the next week

  4. A DSCC-referenced poll has Feingold trailing by a point:

    49-48; Johnson leading

    Breaking: Poll released this morning shows Russ Feingold jumps multiple points into dead heat: 49-48.

    The polls have been understating Feingold’s urban support in Madison and Milwaukee, I think… This poll seems more accurate.

    I don’t know the pollster or have any other information, unfortunately.

  5. So I’m trying to refer a lot of people in a lot of states to one site that will easily link them to absentee ballot information.  Is there any easy to use site who’s url can be placed on a flier that could help direct people toward absentee ballot information for their states?

  6. I'm getting pretty tired of people getting themselves banned or temp suspended because they can't refrain from losing their temper, or because they want to participate in yet another gargantuan policy discussion argument even though there's a reminder that this isn't a policy site about once every four and a half days, or because they respond to obvious or near-obvious trollbait instead of ignoring it or waiting for the SSP Bouncer Squad to toss the offending poster out.

    I'm feeling very pessimistic about this and I wonder if it's not going to get worse as we get closer to elections that will, in all likelyhood, go pretty badly for the party most users here support.

    How I miss the days when it was people like JSmith or anka getting into trouble, instead of people who actually are valued contributors. 

  8. This probably has been posted somewhere but I did not see it.

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/new…

    John Ralston (Nevada’s top political commentator) takes a look at what he perceives as flawed public polling. Bottom line is he finds major flaws in the recent public polls that show Angle up and claims that private polls show Reid with a slight edge.  

  9. In retrospect was the Dems’ decision to use DeStefano as a faux Tea Party candidate a good move?  In other words, is the potential negative press coverage outweighed by DeStefano’s continued presence on the ballot or vice versa?

    At this point, I’m not sure. I suspect that a lot of lower information conservative leaning voters will not bother to read this expose and may well still vote for DeStefano come election day. On the other hand, some independents may be upset by the Dems’ tactics and switch from Adler to Runyon.

    Thoughts?

    I suppose a lot will depend on how much hay Runyon and the NRCC can make of this issue. And that’s a money issue.  

  10. what did ron wydon do right?  feingold’s in trouble, murray might be in trouble, kitzhaber is even at best and the dems in ca are just now pulling away.  what did wydon do so right to avoid the types of calamities we’ve been seeing?

  13. I have given up on the idea that Dems are going to steal any House seats on Election Day that don’t already look competitive.  At the moment, I think the best we could possibly do would be to win with Susan DelBene, Ami Bera, Raj Goyle, etc.  Of the three, I wouldn’t bet on any of them.

    But if we were going to win a random House seat that’s on no one’s radar, which one would it be?

    Here are two that come to mind: PA-06, where people seem to have decided that Manan Trivedi’s through without any polling to speak of, and despite the fact that Gerlach nearly lost to Some Dude last cycle and that Trivedi’s a real candidate.  And a real wildcard: AZ-03, where an excellent Democratic recruit (Jon Hulburd) is running against a badly damaged Republican (Ben Quayle).

  14. Ron Johnson’s blackboard commercial, where he points out that the Senate has 57 lawyers, got me wondering: what Congressmen/women come from non-traditional backgrounds? (i.e. lawyers, business, etc.) Here’s a few to start off with:

    Charlie Wilson, OH-06, mortician

    Carolyn McCarthy, NY-04, nurse

    Phil Hare, IL-17, factory worker

    Mike Simpson, ID-02, dentist (I know there’s plenty of physicians, but I think he’s the only Mountain Dew Warrior)

  16. I did the biographical information for my gf, whose 18, but it was so exciting for me. I had never heard of the company before. National Opinion Services or something.

  18. Does she wish she would have run for the Senate from

    NY instead of CT this cycle?  It would have been more expensive but she would have a weaker opponent.  I understand when she declared she thought her opponent would be Chris Dodd.

  20. *Generic Ballot for Congress – Democrats +12 (is this all because of NYC?)

    *David Paterson’s approval rating – Is Negative 25. Does that seem higher than it was before he retired?

    *Michael Bloomberg – Approval is +6

    *Hillary Clinton – Approval +23

    *Mario Cuomo – Approval +16

    *Rudy Giuliani – Approval +16

    *George Pataki – Approval +2

    http://www.publicpolicypolling…

  21. Just saw an ad for Dingell hitting Steele on wanting to “gamble Social Security on the stock market” for supporting privatization.

    According to the Dingell press release, it’s a buy throughout the Detroit and Ann Arbor media markets, on both broadcast and cable:

    http://www.dingellforcongress….

    The release also says it’s his second ad, but I don’t recall having seen or heard of the first. Still, this race could be more interesting than previously believed.

    As always, full disclosure: a buddy of mine is Steele’s campaign manager. This doesn’t mean I’m trying to be a Steele booster here, though. Just think it’s a race to watch.

  23. I live-blogged it. I thought Culver did well, but unfortunately Branstad didn’t make any big mistakes. It drives me crazy that journalists never call Branstad out on his lies–he keeps citing figures that have been debunked multiple times. I wish someone would ask him why he keeps using numbers he knows to be wrong.

  27. Especially now that some Republican candidates have been blatantly opposing it per se and increases to it. See this DailyKos diary for a link to Rachel Maddow’s fact-laden discussion of the political potency of the issue – first, inasmuch as minimum wage increases are extremely popular with voters in red, blue, and purple states alike, and secondly, in the fact that referenda on minimum wage rises bring wins for Democratic candidates.

  28. Is this what it’s come to?  A right-wing site posted pictures of Democratic challenger Krystal Ball (yes, that is her real name) posing for some racy pictures at a Christmas party a few years ago with her husband.

    So when you have nothing of substance, run with embarrassing photos taken years ago at a party?  I mean, it’s one thing if you’re a sitting Congressman and partying with college students 30 years younger than you while appearing intoxicated (see: the guy Kirsten Gillibrand beat in 2006, John Sweeney) and photos from that party surface, but Ball is only 28 years old.  We’re talking about a party she went to in her early twenties, and the guy in the photo is her husband.

    Sigh… it became enough of a story that Bill Maher covered it tonight on his HBO show.

    Of course, he then pivoted to Marcy Kaptur’s (D) opponent in OH-09 doing Nazi re-enactments, which askew already mentioned above.

  30. I have heard from a high level Dem insider that there have in fact been discussions this week between Crist and Meek about Meek dropping out and endorsing Crist.

  31. is now Republicans 46.8 – Democrats 42.1.  4.7% lead is nearing the highest lead they’ve had all cycle.  6 of the last 7 polls have had republican support over 50%, and a lead of at least R+6.  

    The democratic bounce is over guys.  We’re in deep shit.  That last jobs report might’ve sealed the deal for Team Red.

  33. All Democrats except in AG (Steve Cooley) race.

    Prop 19: No

    Prop 20: Yes

    Prop 21: No

    Prop 22: No

    Prop 23: No

    Prop 24: No

    Prop 25: Yes

    Prop 26-27: No

  34. Not sure if these are new to SSP, just came across them in a dKos diary.

    Braun Research, Oct 4-6

    826 likely voters

    MOE 3.46

    43.4 Paul / 39.5 Conway

    Conway favorables: 50.6 / 28.6

    Paul favorables: 47.1 / 36.5

    FYI, Clinton’s on tap for a visit to Lexington for Conway on Monday.

    http://politics.mycn2.com/wp-c…

  37.  cn|2 Poll

    Paul received support from 43.4% of respondents compared to 39.5% for Conway with 16.6% still undecided. The poll of 826 likely voters was conducted by live interviewers by Braun Research Inc. between Oct. 4 and 6 and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

    http://politics.mycn2.com/2010…

  42. I spent some time in the Granite State today working with the state party and here’s what I picked up from them:

    1. NH-Sen is a done deal. There’s no one in the NHGOP really worried about that one anymore and they’re moving their personnel to other races.

    2. Carol Shea-Porter is a tougher target in NH-01 than many (including myself) expected. A lot of this has to do with Frank Guinta, who apparently has been unable to overcome his bank account baggage. He is not looking that good right now.

    3. Charlie Bass and Annie Kuster are in a close race in NH-02 and most people think that could go either way. Kuster has run a good campaign, but the state GOP is confident in Bass’ ability to get to 50%+1. So that’s a tossup, I guess.

    4. There is energy around John Stephen in the governor’s race, despite the polls not looking great for him. Expect a closer race than usual for Lynch.

    From the phone calls I made to “soft R’s” and unregistered (all to NH-01 residents), I picked up on a lot of the same themes. Most people were enthusiastic about voting for Ayotte but had real reservations about Guinta. It seemed like they became more likely to vote for him after they were informed his opponent was Rep. Shea-Porter though. But the vibe I got was that Guinta can’t win unless he cleans up his image in the next couple weeks.

  43. I don’t see this one changing hands, this cycle, but I think Michigan’s 11th is one that within the next cycle or two will flip Democratic simply because of the changing demographics in Metro Detroit (becoming FAR less ethnically segregated).  He one this district by only 6 points in 2008 with a no-name candidate, though, one could definitely aruge a lot of that was the Obama wave.  

    The current Michigan Speaker of the House (term-limited out in January) lives in this district, and if he ever wanted to go to Congress, this seat is his.  He just ran for governor in the primary (and lost), which adds to his already large mailing list.

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