SSP Daily Digest: 10/8 (Afternoon Edition)

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally got around to belatedly filing his financial disclosures, maybe feeling he had something to hide. He really shouldn’t, because he’s just like the rest of us: he’s carrying a lot of credit card debt. He owes between $35K and $80K on three separate charge accounts, and also owes himself $103K for a campaign loan.  That, my friends, is fiscal conservatism you can believe in. (His biggest asset seems to be undeveloped farmland worth at least $250K, apparently the same Delta Jct. land for which he was receiving farm subsidies.)

• FL-Sen: Here’s a freaky rumor (and I think it’s nothing more than that, as everything seems to be business as usual with the Kendrick Meek camp today, at least on the surface). The Wall St. Journal alludes to increased chatter that a Meek/Charlie Crist deal might be in the works for Meek to drop out of the race and clear the way for Crist to take all the left-of-center votes.

• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: The DGA is out with an internal poll of Illinois, via Global Strategy Group. The poll, though, has better news on the Senate front than the gubernatorial battle. Alexi Giannoulias leads Mark Kirk by 3: 40-37, with 3 each to the Green and Libertarian candidates. On the other hand, Pat Quinn, who’s popped up in the lead in a couple polls lately, trails Bill Brady by 1, at 36-35, with 4 for Green Rich Whitney, 2 for Lex Green, and 6 for Scott Lee Cohen. Just the fact that Quinn seems to be climbing back into the thick of things at this late date seems to be newsworthy in itself, though.

• MO-Sen: As is often the case with these advancing-in-a-different-direction stories, there have been some mixed signals about whether the DSCC is packing up in Missouri. Hotline is observing that this seems to be at least partially the case: they’ve canceled buys from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25, although the buy still seems intact for the last week before the election. They’ve spent $1.8 million in Missouri so far, but probably will be looking to spend that money on defense in West Virginia, or maybe even Washington, which seems to be slowly edging back onto the map.

• NV-Sen: We might expect a steady stream of endorsements on a regular basis from now until the election for Harry Reid from not-insane Republicans. Two were just unveiled in the last few days. One is from Bill Raggio, the former Republican leader in the state Senate (and a legislator since 1972), who has particular reason to dislike Sharron Angle, as she tried to primary him out of his Reno-area seat in 2008. The other is Dema Guinn, the widow of the recently deceased ex-Gov. Kenny Guinn, who also says that her former husband would have backed Reid in this case too.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/1-5, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55 (48)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 34 (42)

Undecided: 11 (9)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 54 (45)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 35 (44)

Other: 8 (8)

Undecided: 3 (4)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (49)

Carl Paladino (R): 34 (40)

Other: 5 (8)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

I think we can conclude that both those previous Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls — the two ones that came out simultaneously and had the big New York races in single digits, spurring a wave of panic — were some combination of a perfect wave of primary bounce and big honkin’ outlier. These races have resumed looking pretty much the way they have all cycle except for those two blips.

We also have NY-Sen-A numbers (60-30 for Chuck Schumer over Jay Townsend in SurveyUSA, and 63-32 in Quinnipiac), and NY-AG numbers (Eric Schneiderman leads Dan Donovan 46-40 in SurveyUSA, and 43-32 in Quinnipiac). Quinnipiac also has Thomas DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 49-31 in the Comptroller race.

76 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/8 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. Is half this post missing or is it just  a really short post?

    Glad to see NY SEN, SEN and GOV seem safe, I’m hoping it will be enough to pull Bishop across the finish line.

  2. I don’t get why Meek would drop out.

    Yes, strategically it’s better for us for a Crist win over Rubio since there’s the likelihood (though not certainty) he’d caucus with us. But Meek telling his supports to go with Crist might also probably move any moderate Repubs out of Crist’s column. So no guarantee that ultimately Rubio still wouldn’t win.

    Also what’s in it for Meek? A job offer from the WH? Doubtful since he was a huge Hilary supporter (though Obama may let bygones be bygones, especially if it means a Rubio defeat).

    Meek will probably go down fighting and lose honorably. FL does get 1 or 2 extra House seats next year. He might go for getting back into the House.  

  3. is that Schumer, Cuomo, and Gilibrand have gotten on TV in a big way, against no opposition.

    The SUSA regional crosstabs are interesting: Gilibrand is losing the NYC suburbs, but cleaning up in upstate and WNY. Schniederman leads only in NYC, so hopefully the various Dem campaigns will do a real GOTV drive there.

    But there’s no question that the region with highest variability is WNY. It makes me worry a lot about Maffei, Higgins, and even Slaughter (who has a very safe district, but. . .)

  4. Was looking at the Iowa absentee ballot requests.  As of today, Dems have a 13.5% advantage over Reps in ballot requests.  This compares to a 20% advantage at a similar time away from the election in 2008.  The 2008 number is from 5 days closer to the election, though, and the Dem/Rep gap seems to be shrinking as the election nears.

    Not sure if you can extrapolate too much from them or not, though it seems you can get some information about general enthusiasm in each camp.  So would a 6.5% drop in Dem enthusiasm advantage translate to a good or bad outcome for dems?  At the least, it seems like if the proportion held out that Boswell could survive in IA-03.

  5. Senate – Republicans +10

    Republican pickups: AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, NV, PA, WA, WI, WV

    House – Republicans +42

    Republican pickups (47): AR-01, AR-02, AZ-01, AZ-05, CO-04, FL-02, FL-08, FL-22, FL-24, GA-08, IL-11, IL-14, IN-08, KS-03, LA-03, MD-01, MI-01, MI-07, MS-01, NC-07, NC-08, ND-AL, NH-01, NH-02, NM-02, NV-03, NY-19, NY-23, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-11, SD-AL, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, TX-23, VA-02, VA-05, VA-11, WA-03, WI-07, WI-08

    Democratic pickups (5): DE-AL, FL-25, HI-01, IL-10, LA-02

    Governors – Republicans +6

    Republican pickups (13): IA, IL, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OR, OK, PA, TN, WI, WY

    Democratic pickups (7): CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, RI, VT

  7. Ralston got the goods today on two prominent Nevada Republicans bashing each other over Reid vs. Angle (casino lobbyist Sig Rogich founded “Republicans for Reid”, while nuclear industry lobbyist and ex-Governor Bob List switched support to Angle after Lowden lost the GOP Primary). And even funnier, all the fallout here may hurt the CALIFORNIA GOP! Both were supposed to do a Las Vegas fundraiser for Carly Fiorina, but List objected to Rogich hosting this fundraiser because he supports Reid. Rogich then fired back that List was an EPIC FAIL of a Governor who sold out the state to lobby for Yucca Mountain.

    I’m passing the popcorn, but I have a feeling iCarly isn’t liking this (and both Harry Reid AND Barbara Boxer are getting good LOLs over this!)…

  8. http://dirtylandry.com/

    See the ad on the left sidebar. Playing for Downer supporters is a smart move. Many of Downer’s supporters were Independents and Democrats who had been voting for him forever, and have voted Republican in federal elections for years.  

  10. And ended up projecting what I’ve thought the numbers may very well end up. We’ve been seeing all sorts of wild numbers from the public polls, numbers that completely contradict the private polls and what most Nevada observers think will happen on Election Day. I tried my best not to be overconfident, so I sobered up and tried my best to make a realistic projection of what the general electorate would look like.

    43% Democratic, 39% Republican, 14% Nonpartisan (Independent), 4% Others

    (Actual registration is 42% Democratic, 37% Republican, 15% Nonpartisan, and 6% Others.)

    And in light of recent news, what I’ve been seeing in my area, and what I’ve been hearing both from political insiders and my social circles here in Nevada, here’s the breakdown I came up with.

    Democrats: 89% Reid, 5% Angle, 3% None of These, 3% Others

    Republicans: 10% Reid, 86% Angle, 2% None of These, 2% Others

    Nonpartisans: 40% Reid, 45% Angle, 9% None of These, 6% Others

    Other Parties: 10% Reid, 10% Angle, 20% None of These, 60% Others

    And this led to:

    47% Reid

    42% Angle

    5% None

    6% Others

    I was actually fairly surprised that None didn’t finish higher, but then again I guess it makes sense since both parties are, for the most part, coalescing around their respective candidates. The one exception, obviously, is “Republicans for Reid”, which I can testify is quite real.

    And whatever the final numbers are, here are some tips to watch in the coming weeks:

    – Look at Early Voting turnout, and more specifically who turns out early. A clear sign of a coming Obama romp in 2008 was NOT the public polling, which didn’t show any sort of wide Obama lead until late October, but rather the early vote totals showing Dems voting in HUGE numbers.

    – Look at where the voters are coming from. One of Angle’s lifelines right now is all her support in the rurals. Even though they’re not heavily populated, they regularly vote and can tip elections. BUT if Clark County (Las Vegas area, and Reid’s strongest area) turns out thanks to all the NV Dem organizing down here, then it will be more than enough to cancel out the rurals.

    – Look at who is organizing where. While TV ads can do plenty to drive narrative, TV ads can’t make people vote. It simply comes down to field, and who’s doing it (and who’s snoozing it). And in this cycle, it comes down to whether Karl Rove’s 527 and Tea Party enthusiasm can outdo the Nevada Democratic Party’s GOTV Machine and the unions’ outreach efforts.

  11. First time I’ll vote in CA.

    Of the statewide candidates, I’m voting Democratic with the exception of Bill Lockyer. (I’m voting for the Green Party)

    Does anyone know anything about the judicial races and the state measures?  

  13. Interesting how many three way races have played out with one side being divided almost in 2 with the other remaining solid.  

  15. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…

    So Marcy Kaptur’s opponent Rich Lott likes to dress up like a Nazi.  He hopes voters will give him the benefit of the doubt though.  I’m sure they will.

    In other news, SSP has this rated “Likely D,” leaving us brimming with speculation as to whether the entrenched Kaptur will fall to Lott’s vaunted “blitzkrieg” campaign style.  Is this worthy of a ratings change?

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