How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Polls

The boys down at SSP Shipping & Receiving are, frankly, completely overwhelmed with the influx of incoming polling to report. That’s why we gotta dish ’em out with no added frills, bulk-style. Our latest dose:

KY-Sen: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/4-6, likely voters, 8/30-9/1 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 40 (37)

Rand Paul (R): 43 (42)

Undecided: 17 (20)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

NC-Sen: High Point University (9/25-30, adults, no trend lines):

Elaine Marshall (D): 31

Richard Burr (R-inc): 45

Mike Beitler (L): 4

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±5%)

WI-Sen: Fairbank Maslin for the DSCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48

Ron Johnson (R): 49

(MoE: ±4%)

FL-Gov: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 44 (47)

Rick Scott (R): 40 (40)

(MoE: ±4%)

OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Suffolk University (10/4-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42

John Kasich (R): 46

Dennis Spisak (G): 4

Ken Matesz (L): 2

Undecided: 5

Lee Fisher (D): 37

Rob Portman (R): 47

Michael Pryce (I): 4

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-Gov, ME-01: Maine Center for Public Opinion for Pine Tree Politics (Gov | -01) (10/4-7, likely voters, no trend lines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29

Paul LePage (R): 30

Eliot Cutler (I): 11

Shawn Moody (I): 5

Kevin Scott (I): 2

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 46

Dean Scontras (R): 38

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5.3%)

MI-Gov: EPIC MRA (10/3-7, likely voters, 9/11-12 in parens):

Virg Bernero (D): 29 (29)

Rick Snyder (R): 49 (53)

(MoE: ±4%)

CA-18: SurveyUSA for KFSN-TV (10/5-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Dennis Cardoza (D-inc): 50

Mike Berryhill (R): 44

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4%)

CA-18: J. Moore Methods for Dennis Cardoza (9/27-29, likely voters):

Dennis Cardoza (D-inc): 53

Mike Berryhill (R): 37

(MoE: ±5%)

ID-01: Moore Information for Raul Labrador (10/5-6, voter screen unspecified, 7/12-13 in parens):

Walt Minnick (D-inc): 37 (37)

Raul Labrador (R): 31 (27)

Dave Olson (I): 6 (4)

Mike Washburn (L): 6 (4)

Undecided/None: 21 (28)

(MoE: ±6%)

IN-07: EPIC-MRA (10/1-3, likely voters):

Andre Carson (D-inc): 50

Marvin Scott (R): 33

Dav Wilson (L): 6

(MoE: ±4.9%)

KS-04: SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/14-15 in parens):

Raj Goyle (D): 40 (40)

Mike Pompeo (R): 53 (50)

Shawn Smith (L): 3

Susan Ducey (RP): 2 (4)

Undecided: 3 (4)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

MI-15: Rossman Group/Team TelCom (10/4, voter screen unspecified):

John Dingell (D-inc): 40

Rob Steele (R): 44

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5.6%)

NY-04: McLaughlin & Associates for Fran Becker (10/6, likely voters, 6/10 in parens):

Carolyn McCarthy (D-inc): 46 (45)

Fran Becker (R): 45 (25)

Undecided: 9 (31)

(MoE: ±5.6%)

NY-19: Iona College for RNN-TV/Westchester County Association (10/6, voter screen unspecified):

John Hall (D-inc): 42

Nan Hayworth (R): 42

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±3.5%)

NY-25: McLaughlin & Associates for Ann Marie Buerkle (10/4-5, likely voters, 7/10 in parens):

Dan Maffei (D-inc): 39 (46)

Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 40 (39)

Undecided: 21 (17)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Take that last one with a grain of salt, though — note that directly before the head-to-head top line question, McLaughlin asked if voters would like to send an Obama-supporting Democrat to Congress or a Republican who would provide a “check and balance”.

PA-03: Mercyhurst College (9/22-10/5, registered voters):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 37

Mike Kelly (R): 44

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±3.9%)

119 thoughts on “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Polls”

  1. Laugh being the operative part. Taegan has some conservative polls – Boxer up 2, Blumenthal up 7, Coons up 13, Angle up 6. The latter probably generous but I fear the worst from PPP unfortunately.

  2. Who are Rossman Group and Team TelCom? And what other MI-15 polls are out there? And while I won’t dismiss the NY-04 GOP internal, I also want to see what’s happening there with other polling and what’s on the ground.

  4. If we had any, I would remove them from Ark, NC, Ind and put them into Ky, Co, WV, and PA.  My hunch is that has been done already but don’t have data on IEs.  

    I’m unsure about NH though.  Seems almost in striking distance and we have two tough down ticket houses races that could use a boost in turnout.

  5. The district includes Ann Arbor and is D+13, enough said.

    I’m sure McCarthy will see her majority drop in NY-4, but she’ll still win. She won in 2002 and 2004 with the GOP targeting her seat, so she will win this time.

  6. Three weeks before the election and she’s putting out her first ad.  

    I guess nobody has to wonder why she’s getting destroyed by Richard Burr.  

    First ad three weeks before the election.  Is it too lake to bring Cal Cunningham back in?  

  7. I think its been over 2-3 weeks since the DCCC dropped a bunch of polls

    Since then, we’ve gotten more news from Nate Silver that the Democratic comeback didn’t amount to much/enough…we got a ton of polls from neutral and GOP sources saying we’re going to get destroyed, and generic numbers are showing again a national blowout

    What I’m wondering, and asking, is: Is it even realistic to entertain the notion of keeping the House? I remember in 2006 and 2008 all the unrealistic analysis from Republicans, and it is basically word for word what Democrats are saying this year

    Whenever I hear some Democrat saying “oh we can keep the House we’re only going to lose like 20-30 seats” I’m thinking back to when the GOP was on the air saying they also were going to only lose half of what every political website was projecting

  10. is confirmation that the governor’s race is a dead heat, much better than the leads we were seeing earlier for LePage. Seems his lunacy may be damaging him.

  11. Still, that model seems a little GOP-heavy. Carolyn McCarthy’s gun control focus has always caused her friction with the district’s Republicans, but she always carries Independents handily. Could be around a ten-point race, but she should be OK.

  13. I like Rep. John Hall. I hope he makes it.

    In a way, the 2010 midterm saddens me because members of Congress that actually voted their conscience and values on various issues (Rep. Tom Perrilio and Sen. Russ Feingold) are probably going to lose while members that just voted out of fear and their desire to get re-elected (Rep. Gerry Connelly and Rep. Larry Kissell) still have good shots.

    At least the good ones have the JFK Profile in Courage Award next year. I expect some of these Dems that lose this year will be given that award.

  14. I always thought the “Moore Information” poll sounded like a scam.

    It’s kind of like,”Here’s the latest results from Trustworthy Polling, Inc.”  

  15. Tacoma News Tribune:

    Murray has made a political career out of defying expectations. She’s grown into a formidable lawmaker who has proven she can both help lead the Democratic Party and work across the aisle when needed. To turn her out now, when she is at the height of her ability to fight for important state, regional and local projects, would be foolish.

    http://www.thenewstribune.com/…

    Oregonian:


    Over three terms in the Capitol, Patty Murray has both built influence and displayed strong connections to the concerns of Washington state, from middle-class economic pressures to veterans issues to Hanford safety. Washington voters should re-elect Murray, and keep both her influence and her values in the U.S. Senate.

    http://www.oregonlive.com/opin…

  22. and evidently no one knows how to model the turnout.

    I suspect the flood of GOP friendly polling has to do with all the money the front groups have to spend.  Since it’s all being done on some kind of business model, the individual anonymous outfits have to provide some kind of assessments that allows their performance to be evaluated quantitatively.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some office park building somewhere where some corporate-funded outfit is aggregating all the polls (including many we don’t see, because they aren’t published or leaked) and spending numbers and all that from the shadow organizations and crunching them.

    I’ve decided I can’t take the bulk of them seriously anymore.  My impression is that the game is pretty much set and both sides will indeed see their core voters pretty much all go to the polls.  The generic polling seems to me to be converging on a 52±1% R/48±1% D two party popular vote split, which pretty much fits the R+30ish model.

  25. McLaughlin & Associates is a known Republican push pollster, and obviously some of these internals are questionable.

    But it’s really good to see nonpartisan pollsters putting Atty. Gen. Jack Conway right behind Rand Paul in Kentucky (that rally with President Clinton may help turn out the Democratic vote in northern Kentucky, too, which is key for both Conway and Reps. Yarmuth and Chandler), Alex Sink still leading Rick Scott, Libby Mitchell confirmed to be in a statistical tie with Paul LePage, and Gov. Strickland nipping at John Kasich’s heels just weeks after it looked like he was going to be the latest candidate stuck on the wrong end of a bona fide Ohio blowout.

  26. Jensen blogs about Dems’ better odds in the Senate than the House, and says this about NV:

    On our Nevada poll this weekend we asked just for the heck of it how folks would have voted if the Republican nominee had been Danny Tarkanian. He did 8 point better than Sharron Angle, most notably winning independent voters by 26 points when her advantage with them is only 8. Independents in Nevada want to vote against Harry Reid, but a lot of them consider him to be a lesser evil than Angle.

    Not sure what this implies about the survey results, but doesn’t Angle need to be doing a lot better than +8 among indies to win this thing?

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

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