DCCC Releases Seven New Polls

The DCCC is out with seven new polls showing five Democratic incumbents in the lead, and two challengers giving GOP incumbents serious races:

AZ-05: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/3-4, likely voters):

Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 46

David Schweikert (R): 39

(MoE: ±4.9%)

HI-01: Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 48

Charles Djou (R-inc): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

IA-03: Bennett, Petts and Normington for the DCCC (10/3-4, likely voters):

Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 49

Brad Zaun (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-14: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Bill Foster (D-inc): 48

Randy Hultgren (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-07: Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/3-5, likely voters):

Mike McIntyre (D-inc): 52

Ilario Pantano (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-11: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (10/4-6, likely voters):

Heath Shuler (D-inc): 54

Jeff Miller (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.8%)

PA-15: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/27-29, likely voters):

John Callahan (D): 43

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Of course, I’d like to see the internals they’re not releasing, too…

47 thoughts on “DCCC Releases Seven New Polls”

  2. Another case of the GOPTP setting the bar really really low for candidates:

    http://www.salon.com/news/poli…

    Pantano in 2004 shot two unarmed Iraqi prisoners up to 60 times and then placed a sign bearing a Marine slogan next to their bodies. After a hearing on murder charges, military officials agreed with Pantano’s version of events, in which the two men made a hostile move toward him.

  3. within the last few weeks is that republican incumbents in marginal districts, people that were doing well before, are really struggling now.  

    Reichert’s lead in WA-8 was in the double digits a month ago, now he’s barely ahead.  Lungren’s district wasn’t really on the forefront, but it’s clear that Bera is pressing him now too.  Callahan has been closing the gap gradually on Dent despite a so-called democratic implosion in Pennsylvania.  I think there was a poll last week that showed Minan Trivedi closing the gap on Jim Gerlach as well.

    Maybe this year is beginning to show some of it’s “anti-incumbent” teeth now, as opposed to being just “anti-democratic”.  For what it’s worth, the Republican Party’s favorables are way in the dumper, so that can’t be helping people like Reichert, Gerlach, and Dent.

  4. are still ahead even with +5 bias for internal polls.I am particularly thrilled with the IL-14 #s. I expect us to get hammered in PA and OH, so we need to hold as many seats as possible in our blue states like IL, NY and CA. And it is nice to see them doing some offense as well. I could see us picking up 7 or so Rep seats this year.  

  5. is it “page 1” (Straight ticket), “page 2” (Senate/House/State Senate/State House) and “page 3” or all three columns on the same page?

    because if it’s the former, I can see people just voting straight ticket and going from there.

    Also would be interesting to see if Ilario Pantano polls worse than Ilario Gregory Pantano (his name on the ballot)

  6. Good to finally see an internal from IL-14, and it’s not a bad one.

    First internal from IA-03, also good news.

    AZ-05 is an improvement from the last two internal which were Mitchell +3 and +1.  Maybe pulling into a small lead from what was probably a tie.

    I’d like to see a better number in HI-01, an internal like that probably confirms the dem-leaning tie that PPP had.  I think we’ll pull it out on election day though.

  8. And it confirms what I’ve been suspecting for some time, which is that Dems aren’t really as “DOOMED!” in suburban Philly as some pundits have suggested.

    The others didn’t really surprise me. No way did I think Mitchell was a goner in AZ-05, Hanabusa still has a tough slog in HI-01, and all the talk of McIntyre in NC-11 being washed away by “The Red Tide” was hogwash.

  10. They say that Reid is more likely the one being underestimated and that the race is a statistical tie.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

    Also, their feed says that although Angle leads among indies by 8 (she led by 10 in July), Danny Tarkanian would have led 26 among indies and be doing better than Angle by 8.

    Primary fail.  The TPX chose the wrong candidate to boost, not that I’m complaining.

  11. … going down the poll closing times on Nov. 2, I was fearing 7:30PM because that’s when the NC polls close. And I hadn’t really factored the NC House races into my yardstick strategy for election night.

    These polls from NC-7 and NC-11 make me feel a little better about that. The leads for the Dems are pretty strong, even for  a Dem campaign-sponsored poll.  

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