Public Policy Polling (10/9-10/10, likely voters, 9/18-19 in parentheses):
Joe Manchin (D): 48 (43)
John Raese (R): 45 (46)
Undecided: 7 (10)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
PPP was the first pollster to see the once-thought to be a slam-dunk West Virginia race going in Republican John Raese’s direction, and now they see it swinging back in Joe Manchin’s favor. (Of course, the only polls in that intervening period all came from Rasmussen, so who knows how much substance there was to all that Raese momentum.) There’s much less enthusiasm gap in this poll: the sample of LVs went for John McCain in 2008 by 11 points (compared with McCain’s actual 13 point victory, or the 23 point spread in the previous PPP poll).
In their writeup, PPP seems to attribute this at least in part to the “hicky” ad scandal; that may have played a role, but I think that’s just one more brick in building an Raese-as-outsider narrative where news about his Florida residency and his inherited wealth may have played a greater role, where steady anti-Raese advertising succeeded in driving up his negatives (as he was sort of a tabula rasa, Ron Johnson-style generic R businessman at the time of the last poll). Raese’s favorables have dropped significantly (especially with independents), from 41-35 to 39-46 overall. Manchin remains very popular as Governor (68/22), which actually becomes a bit of a weakness in a way; it leaves him susceptible to what seems to be the GOP’s strongest argument at this point: you like him as Governor, so keep him there (as seen by people’s responses to the question “Would you rather have Manchin as Governor or Senator?” to which they respond Governor, by a 47-38 margin).
Going from +9 to +6. Such is life when you don’t have a tossup column.
As I said in another thread, all Manchin really needs to do is nail-down 80% of Democrats. Raese can win Indies by double-digits and Manchin can still prevail.
just got done looking through them, a bit messy but here you go for whoever wants to discuss
A lot of money poured into races that should be “locked up”
AR-01, AL-02, AZ-01, AZ-05, CA-11 (small buy), CO-03 (new target), CO-04, FL-02, FL-08, FL-24, GA-08, IL-10, IL-11 (small buy), IL-14, IL-17 (new target?), IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, KY-06, MA-10, MD-01, MI-01, MI-07, MN-01 (new target), MO-04, MS-01, NC-07, ND-01, NH-01 (new target), NH-02 (new target), NJ-03 (tiny buy), NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-20, NY-24, OH-06 (new target), OH-16, OH-18 (new target), OR-05, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-11, SC-05, SD-01, TN-08, TX-17, VA-02, VA-05, VA-09, WA-03, WI-07, WI-08, WV-01
Tea Leaves:
CA-11 had a small buy, maybe NRCC is giving up here
CO-03 I think is a first time expenditure going up in that district
CO-04 had a HUGE buy ($392k), thought this was a done deal?
FL-24 still spending there!
IL-11 however had a small buy, may be mostly locked up
IL-17 first spending by NRCC in this district I think
IN-02 maybe a bit of a drop-off in spending here
MN-01 first NRCC spending here
ND-01 still spending here! another $250k
NH-01, NH-02 first time NRCC spending here, big buy against Porter!
NJ-03 was a middling buy, probably giving up here
NM-02 accelerating spending here
NV-03 gigantic buy here ($386k)
OH-06, OH-18 first time NRCC spending here
OR-05 accelerating spending here
TN-08 still spending here! (another $200k)
TX-17 still spending here as well
VA-02 first time NRCC spending here
VA-05 still spending here (another $155k)
WA-03 whole lot dropped here ($300k)
Too bad Feingold would rather go down without a fight than go down swinging.
Is Manchin term limited any time soon? Now of course this seat is up again in 2012, which hurt Manchin with the “Let’s keep him Governor” faction because they can justify it by saying “Let’s show Obama now, and then elect Manchin for the Senate in 2012, hopefully with a new President”.
Although his answers to the questions sounded rehearsed, he was not caught off guard. When Chris Matthews asked him to name one Obama policy he approves of, Manchin said it was the “Race to the Top” program. I was afraid he’d be dumbfounded.
Also, I liked what he said in response to charges he’ll be a “rubber stamp.” He said he’ll only be West Virginia’s rubber stamp.
makes sense considering there wasn’t any really competitive races in 2008 either