NV-Sen: Angle Wins Money Battle, Loses Polling War

Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, 7/16-18 in parentheses):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 47 (48)

Sharron Angle (R): 45 (46)

Other: 5 (-)

None of these: 2 (-)

Undecided: 1 (6)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The story today in the Nevada Senate race is Sharron Angle’s fundraising total: $14 million for the quarter, a huge amount by anyone’s standards (although Scott Brown raised more than that in one month, but that was a special election with nothing else on the table nationwide). I have to wonder if that’s any sort of game-changer at this point, though: what is she going to do with that much money that she couldn’t do with one-half as much? Every possible square inch of ad space must already be reserved for the next few weeks. I mean, she could buy everyone in Nevada their own TV, but it’d still show whatever ads are already reserved.

Today’s PPP poll kind of flew under the radar as a result, partly because it didn’t show anything new (the same 2-point Harry Reid lead they saw last time, and the same +2 to – 2 band that pollsters always seem to see this race in). What’s maybe the most remarkable number here? Things are incredibly locked in: there’s only 1% undecided. Angle can’t win simply by picking up every undecided; she’d need to grab some of the “other” or “NOTA” voters too, or flip some Reid votes. Angle perceptions are pretty set, though: she’s considered “extremist” rather than “mainstream” by a 53-39 margin, with only 7% unsure, and her unfavorables are over the 50% mark (41/53). Not that Reid fares much better at 44/52, the kind of numbers that incumbents don’t usually survive (and that’s confirmed by a hypothetical match against the slightly less-objectionable Danny Tarkanian, which Reid loses 49-43).

Bear in mind that, compared with PPP’s West Virginia poll where the enthusiasm gap mysteriously (and perhaps too-optimistically) vanished, it’s in freakin’ full effect here. They find a +2 Obama electorate (48-46) instead of the 12 points he actually won by in ’08… and in spite of that, Reid is still clinging to a lead. (In fact, PPP imputes a 52-42 Reid lead under ’08 conditions.) As you probably already know, this will be all about turnout, and whether the hotel union-powered turnout machine in Las Vegas is as skillful at turning out votes as it’s been in recent years.

31 thoughts on “NV-Sen: Angle Wins Money Battle, Loses Polling War”

  1. “I have to wonder if that’s any sort of game-changer at this point, though: what is she going to do with that much money that she couldn’t do with one-half as much?”

    Considering she used direct mail and her campaign was unwilling to provide any more information, I doubt she’ll have anywhere near what one would normally have.

  2. They’re getting them all over the place (even Wolf Blitzer got one).  However, this is very costly, and the firm she’s using is notorious for its high fees.  So, she’s spending much more money on fundraising than on advertising.

    Also, she has yet to put up any TV ad buys for the week of Oct. 19th and 26th.

    http://twitter.com/RalstonFlash

  3. Isn’t that more than the entire Republican National Committee under Michael Steele, right? Hah! How much did Reid raise? I heard he was plowing in huge dollars, and going out of his way to scare PACS and lobbyists away from Angle.

    I’m going to go with adleft’s perceptions here; the polling is probably even more favorable to Angle than her actual position is, because adleft is quite, well, adamant that the Democratic organization is massively better organized than the Republicans are, in the same way Obama outperformed his polling average by a lot in NV in 2008.

    Personally, I think Reid will win, but oddly enough, I actually think the deciding factor will be Rory. Voters who want to vote Republican but can’t vote for Angle, (Reid needs a commercial, with the former Clark County Sheriff, Bob Cashell, Gino Martini, the past two First Ladies, and the current Republican minority leader all endorsing him), will vote for Harry and then vote against Rory. Rory gives them an outlet for their frustrations and to vote Republican.  

  4. How often have I had to repeat myself here? I’m seeing the NV Dems work hard on the ground here. Ralston sees all the private polls showing Reid up. But when Razzy and CNN farted up some crap “polls” with wacko internals, a lot of folks here were screaming about “Reid slipping” and “Angle SURGE!”

    Do you now believe me when I say what’s actually happening here is quite different from what the rest of you see on MSNBC or CNN (or especially Fox!)?

    And as I said in a previous thread, PPP is (literally!) using quite the conservative turnout model. Dems just barely outnumber Reeps 41-40 in their model, while GOP pollster POS’ model from late last month had a 42-37 Dem advantage that matched current voter registration stats (and remember, they had Reid +5). PPP also shows slightly more men then women voting (51-49), while both POS and the private polls show slightly more women than men voting. So contrary to what some may believe, PPP’s numbers are far from “best case scenario” for Reid.

  6. Maybe a lot of that dough isn’t just for various ads/mailings, but for hiring people to perform her ground operation. I’d bet every teabagger wingnut in the country would love to travel to NV to help do in Reid

    Early voting in NV begins this Saturday 10/16.

  7. She’s been spending that on ads and mailers over the same three months, and the cost of her direct mailers probably took a chunk of that as well.  

    COH is the number that matters now.  

  9. keeps inching closer to the 50 mark; I’ve thought since Angle was nominated that if Reid can get into the high 40s, he’ll win, between Angle, None Of These, and various spoilers.

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