SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: A new PAC called “Alaskans Standing Together” has spent $600K on ads for Lisa Murkowski, a pretty huge sum for the state. AST filed with the FEC as a so-called “Super PAC,” as the Washington Independent puts it, which allows them to “raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, so long as they do so entirely independent of candidates or political parties.” Sounds a lot like a 527, except that AST will (supposedly) have to file its donor lists with the FEC. One of their ads is here – almost sounds like a Dem spot, except for the fact that Scott McAdams’ ads have been far better than this.
  • CT-Sen: Talking Points Memo went digging into an old story about a former WWF referee who, after making claims that Vince McMahon sexually assaulted her, was sued by both Vince and Linda McMahon in the early `90s. (They also sued Geraldo Rivera, on whose show the ref made her allegations.) The McMahons eventually dropped their suit after a year… but now that TPM is writing about it, their lawyer has threatened TPM with legal action.
  • WV-Sen: Trying to understand why Politico is presenting this as a new story, when we knew two weeks ago that zillionaire asshole John Raese loudly and proudly announced that he doesn’t support the minimum wage.
  • NV-Gov: Is this story going to blow up in the same way the Meg Whitman housekeeper story did? A woman says she cleaned Brian Sandoval’s home back in the late `90s while she was an illegal immigrant, and that Sandoval never asked her for documentation. Sandoval and his wife are claiming they don’t know the woman.
  • SC-Gov: Winthrop University (10/5-10, likely voters, no trendlines):

    • Vincent Sheheen (D): 37

    Nikki Haley (R): 46

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±3.6%)

  • TN-08: Looks like Roy Herron is trying to make the most of the news that the DCCC’s abandoning him: He’s claiming it’s because he won’t support Nancy Pelosi. Gotta give the dude credit for trying – there’s lemonade in there somewhere!
  • UT-02: A poll by the Utah Policy Center apparently shows Rep. Jim Matheson leading Republican Morgan Philpot 46-30, with 20% undecided. The full details are behind a paywall, so we don’t know the field dates or voter screen.
  • DCCC: Ah, the panzers are definitely reconsolidating now, for real. The Fix’s Aaron Blake has a detailed writeup of the D-Trip’s ongoing triage efforts. As we mentioned yesterday, it looks like Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Steve Dreihaus (OH-01), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) are being left on the cutting room floor. In addition, Blake confirms his earlier tweet that Trent van Haaften (IN-08), Roy Herron (TN-08 – see above), and Stephene Moore (KS-03) are also apparently on their own as they defend open seats. Two “good” cancellations were also made in LA-02 and DE-AL, where Dem pickup chances are looking good. (Remember that even in 1994, Dems won four open seats.) But really, click through and read the whole piece, as Blake has details of cuts made all around the country – though he notes that many are small and may just represent resource shifts.

    • SSP TV:

    • NY-Gov: Andy Cuomo touts the Medicaid Fraud unit at the AG’s office, then attacks Carl Paladino as a shady insider
    • AL-02: Bobby Bright explains that he’s basically more-or-less a Republican
    • NH-02: Annie Kuster hits Charlie Bass on a common theme, “raising his own pay” while a member of Congress
    • PA-Sen: Two Joe Sestak ads on the same theme: the first points out what would have happened to retirement savings over the last couple of years had Social Security been privatized (per Pat Toomey’s wishes); the second features seniors saying basically the same thing

    Independent Expenditures:

    • PA-10: The DCCC spends $47K attacking Tom Marino – I’m wondering if some of this is for web ads, since there’s an $8 charge from GoDaddy (and the sums are smallish, though possibly radio-level)
    • Realtors: Spend $1.3 mil helping Dems Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Dennis Cardoza (CA-18), John Adler (NJ-03), and Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)

    146 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Morning Edition)”

    3. This is the result of the SpeechNow decision, which held that if individuals could do unlimited independent expenditures, so could groups of individuals — and now, thanks to Citizens United, groups of individuals and corporations intermingled as well.

    6. I thought the only people who used that were stupid kids who got tricked into thinking they were buying porn.

    9. If claiming that

      A) You’ll vote your district not party

      B) You’ll vote for a centrist

      C) You’re ranked the most independent legislator

      means that you’re “basically more-or-less a Republican”, then we’ll be sitting in a permanent minority in no time!

      Let’s go purity!!!!

    13. Based on these Siena polls, and other recent house polls, I’m seeing a disconnect between the generic numbers and the district by district numbers is many of the closest contested races.  Which raises the possibilities:

      1.  The generics are off the mark

      2.  The district polls are understating Republican support

      3.  There will be surprises in races not being polled

      4.  There is a geographic imbalance in the generics.

      It could be the latter.  Republicans might run up huge margins in the south, the mountain west and parts of the middle west.  And either tied or trailing in the other regions.

    18. 51-46.

      http://www.nj.com/news/index.s…

      This district adjoins the one I’m in.  I’ve seen a ton of Sipprelle signs, at least in the southeastern part of the district.  Holt’s strength is in Middlesex County, and in Princeton and Trenton.  If he gets a decent turnout in these areas, he should be OK.

    20. Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle vs. Sharron Angle

      The big debate is tomorrow, and I guess Team Reid is hoping Mitch Fox (the moderator from Vegas PBS) will mention these contradictions from Angle’s own mouth.

    23. Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has seized a five-point advantage in the battle for the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s seat, opening up a 49 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican John Raese in a poll conducted for the DSCC. It’s the second survey in two days to show Manchin rebounding, after Public Policy Polling put him three points up on Raese. The fundamentals of Manchin’s political profile are strong: Sixty-three percent of likely voters said they had a favorable impression of him and only 28 percent said the opposite. For Raese, those numbers were closely divided at 40 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable. Sixty-four percent of voters said Manchin’s job performance was good or excellent, while only 30 percent said it was fair or poor. The GQR poll tested 612 likely voters from Oct. 7-11 – at the height of the controversy over the so-called “hick” ad.”

      http://www.politico.com/mornin…

    24.    Santorum completely killed his chances of reelection when he decided to travel around the state to drum up support for Dubya’s plan to privatize social security.  It was an abject failure.  I watched senior citizens yell at the bewildered bastard in central Pennsylvania.  Those ads will hurt Toomey no doubt.

        Question: At what point does spending for Toomey become subject to the law of diminishing returns?  I think it does now.

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