StephenCLE’s House Rankings – October 13

Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Ratings.  

With election day now just 20 days away, a couple of things are happening.  The generic ballot appeared to bounce for the GOP much of last week, but the last few surveys were even and D+2, knocking the lead down to 4%.  That’s about the same as the lead was last week.  But that lead seems a bit fabricated because of Gallup going to a likely voter model, sending their leads from GOP +2 or +3 to +12 or +13, which seems way out of whack with most other generic ballot polls.  In addition, I’m starting to notice a bit of a regional disparity from the generic ballot show up in polling in individual house districts, especially open seats.  It seems as though incumbents and open seats in the southeast, and to a lesser extent the midwest, the democrats are struggling.  In the northeast and west though, we’ve seen many favorable results, many of them within the past 2 days or so.  

There are a lot of changes, some rightward, some leftward, so many that I can’t talk about them all.  I’ll list them after the seat changes and then have some general commentary.  Bottom line, this is going to be a close, close fight to the finish for control of the House.

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 224 Democrats, 211 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +32

Democratic Pickups (6) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1, WA-8

Republican Pickups (38) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, GA-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – WI-8, CA-11

Republican to Democrat – AZ-5, IL-14, MI-7, PA-10, WA-8, WV-1

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+7

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+12

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+9

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+4

The Map:

Ratings Changes for October 5-12:

1.Arizona-7 – Safe D to Likely D

2.Michigan-15 – Safe D to Likely D

3.Texas-27 – Safe D to Lean D

4.Arkansas-4 – Likely D to Lean D

5.Alabama-2 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D

6.New York-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D

7.Illinois-10 – Lean D to Likely D

8.Ohio-13 – Lean D to Likely D

9.Iowa-3 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D

10.Tennessee-8 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

11.Arkansas-1 – Toss up/Tilt R to Lean R

12.Kansas-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

13.Pennsylvania-7 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

14.Michigan-1 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

15.Washington-3 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

16.Washington-8 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt D

17.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

18.Wisconsin-7 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

19.Wisconsin-8 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt

20.Pennsylvania-6 – Lean R to Likely R

21.Michigan-7 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

22.Tennessee-4 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D

23.Ohio-15 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

24.Pennsylvania-10 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

25.California-11 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R

26.Arizona-5 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

27.Illinois-14 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

The net result of these changes is that the democrats gained 6 seats this week, the republicans gained two, putting the national score at Republicans+32.  The republican strength at the district level just doesn’t appear to be as strong as the generic ballot would suggest.  Virtually all of these moves were based on independent polling results.  Notable among these moves is WA-8, which has jumped into the blue column as Team Blue’s 6th pickup of the cycle.  I made this move based on not only polling, but a general sense that Dave Reichert’s standing within the district has been damaged somewhat and his campaign hasn’t been strong.  I’m thinking now that Delbene pulls in most remaining undecideds and wins this thing.  

Two other races I want to point out in particular are MI-7 and NM-2.  These races are virtual dead heats in the polls, but I keep them on the blue side of the ledger as the GOPers were both recent congressmen.  In a “throw em out” type of year, Teague and Schauer have been running ads starting with “Congressman Steve Pearce/Tim Walberg.  That’s potent strategy, and a big reason why I think those two will win.  Steve Driehaus is trying to do the same thing in OH-1, but he’s down too much for it to close the gap.  

This week, I’ve started to draw the battle lines between “good coattail states” and “bad coattail states”.  Wisconsin’s races were downgraded this week now that the prospect of a double-R win at the top appears likely.  Arkansas and Tennessee are looking really bad too, and several of those races were downgraded as well, although in the cases of TN-8 and AR-1, the republicans had some good polling results as well.  Iowa also looks notoriously bad, which is a big reason why IA-1 and IA-2 are still relatively competitive.  I figured IA-3 would be in the red column by now, but it appears that Brad Zaun is a screw-up, which helps Team Blue hold that one.  On the other hand, things seem to be improving a bit in Pennsylvania, which along with polling results allow PA-7 and PA-10 to move leftward in the ranks.  Maryland appears to be getting better with O’Malley pulling away on Ehrlich, which could help Frank Kratovil survive, though I’m not projecting that yet.  Illinois appears to be improving a bit as well with Giannoulias and Quinn inching upward, which appears to be the final nail in Bob Dold’s coffin in IL-10.  

Lastly, there are a few races that I am loathe to move based on polling alone.  AZ-7 and HI-1 are probably the best examples, as you probably get a lot of non-response from democratic voters in majority-minority districts like these.  Colleen Hanabusa in particular I think, if she’s within 5 points going into election day she’s going to win.  

I’ll close by saying that the battle for the House is extremely fluid right now.  2 weeks ago, I had only 29 seats turning over, which ballooned to 36 last week.  I figured it would stay static or even rise into the 40s just two days ago, then a whole bunch of positive polling came out for Team Blue in the last 48 hours, dropping the number to 32.  It’s going to be a roller-coaster ride the rest of the way, and if a game-changing event were to occur somehow, a big swing one way or the other is still possible.    

2010 House Big Board (as of October 13 update)

Solid Dem – 148 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, ME-1, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 32 seats:

Arizona-7 (Grijalva)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-20 (Costa)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-10 (Seals)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Michigan-15 (Dingell)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Minnesota-8 (Oberstar)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-13 (Schwartz)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 28 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-27 (Ortiz)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 17 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 22 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Lean Rep – 20 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkanas-1 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Likely Rep – 13 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1