Noted d-bag Mark Penn is out with ten new polls conducted for The Hill. These are all open seat races with departing Democratic incumbents, with the exception of GOP Rep. Charles Djou’s race and the open seat being vacated by Mark Kirk.
Penn Schoen for The Hill (10/2-7, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):
AR-01:
Chad Causey (D): 34
Rick Crawford (R): 46
HI-01:
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 41
Charles Djou: 45
IL-10:
Dan Seals (D): 49
Robert Dold (R): 37
MI-01:
Gary McDowell (D): 39
Dan Benishek (R): 42
NH-02:
Ann Kuster (D): 42
Charlie Bass (R): 45
PA-07:
Bryan Lentz (D): 39
Pat Meehan: 40
TN-08:
Roy Herron (D): 37
Stephen Fincher (R): 47
WA-03:
Denny Heck (D): 40
Jaime Herrera (R): 42
WI-07:
Julie Lassa (D): 35
Sean Duffy (R): 44
WV-01:
Mike Oliverio (D): 42
David McKinley (R): 39
is Kirk’s old seat. So that’s one with a departing GOP incumbent.
I find it interesting that Dold is getting throttled. I also would be curious about the Djou numbers, as it just doesn’t seem right that he is winning this district considering it’s now a 2-person race and the overwhelming Democratic tilt of the district.
I’ve been telling everyone who will listen this am that I think these polls are good news (relatively speaking) and show a clear path to holding the House for us. I’ve had the Baird and Stupak seats listed as gone on my chart and the Sestak seat as on the verge of being gone.
If we can flip Hawaii and hold on in the Dold race and then take two of Hodes, Sestak, Stupak, and Baird open seats, I think we’ll keep the House.
The South is actually looking pretty good according to the last info I got from a friend at the DCCC. They think we can make it out of there with 4 or 5 losses in competitive races. (Gordon and the two Arkansas seats not counting as competitive)
I’m continuing to hear good things about the Joe Garcia race as well (can’t fathom why The Hill didn’t poll that one as well.) That’s the open seat I’m most curious about currently and numbers have been few and far between there. We win that Hawaii, Illinois, Lousiana and Delaware and our number is 44 instead of 39.
30 year old male, Washington DC
1. We’re leading in one Republican-held seat listed.
2. Incumbent Charles Djou (R-HI-01) and former incumbent Charlie Bass (R-NH-02) are both below 50%, low-to-mid forties to be exact.
3. The much ballyhooed Pat Meehan (R-PA-07) is stuck at 40% with but a one point lead.
4. Aside from AR-01, TN-08, and WV-01, these are all blue districts. The Democratic baseline is higher, and even if the Republicans sneak through, they’ll have a huge target on their backs for 2012.
Tightening confirmed in NH-02, which seemed like a blowout for Bass over the summer, when he led in three UNH polls by 11-18 points. Penn has it at 3. Undecideds could break for Kuster here, if she can successfully portray Bass as a creature of Washington. He’s well-known in the district as its former Congressman.
Tie race in PA-07, which is a shocker. Lentz was down 21 in a Republican poll from the summer, and by 4 in the Monmouth poll last week.
Further tightening toward the Dem in WA-08, where Heck was down 9 and 13 in separate SUSA polls. A Dem poll in early September had Heck behind by 3. Here it’s at 2.
A complete meltdown for Benishek in MI-01, where Republican polls had him up in the high teens through September. This result actually confirms the R+3 finding of a Democratic survey a couple weeks ago.
I’m disappointed by AR-01 and WI-07, and don’t really buy the HI-01 result. Note that the polling period overlaps with a D+4 result from Global Strategy Group. PPP found D+1 at the start of the survey period.
On balance, these polls seem pretty encouraging for Dems.
The internals on the polls looked fairly decent to me, but 2 things jumped out. First, in HI-01, 39% of those polled were white and 39% Asian-American. The demographics of that district (admittedly, not the same as a likely voter pool) are 19% white and 54% Asian.
Second, in WI-07, 45% of those surveyed were Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. In ’08, Obama won that district by 14%. I’m sure there won’t be a +14 Obama voter gap in WI-07 this year, but it should be better than even.
don’t look that bad at all to me.
The Southern seats definitely look writeoff-ish, but things are close in the rest of the country.
NH-02 is looking as good as it can look in a bad Democratic year. Kuster is a good candidate.
Is Shea Porter done for or what? She should be able to hammer Guinta on his shady financial stuff.
Why am I not surprised that there is not a poll on Florida 25? I talked about this yesterday but this dbag doesn’t even poll seats that could be more advantageous to Democrats. Such is life though. The FL-25 is seat that really deserves a good polling and I would put it as a swing district seat. Actually these numbers aren’t really that bad as they basically say that that the races are dead heats apart from AR-01, TN-08, and WI-07 all of which I have team blue losing. Combine that with many of the numbers have a lot of undecided voters along with the MOE and you have a jump ball.
Given that aside from HI-01 and IL-10, they’re seats the Republicans are expected to win.
Personally, I’d written off the Arkansas and Tennessee open seats months ago. WI-07 is a shame. HI-01 is either going to be nail-biter or the polls are horribly wrong again.
they are probably crap. That being said they aren’t that bad for us. The only reason I think the GOP has a shot at the House is because of our shitty numbers in the Midwest. If we can make at least somewhat of a comeback in the midwest I doubt they have a shot. I think Obamas popularity in the Midwest though helped us win/hold a lot of seats we shouldn’t have won and it’s coming back to bite us now. But thats fine because in 12 he will probably be just as strong or at least nearly as strong there and it should help up win back seats like WI-07 or any Illinois/Michigan seats we lose assuming the GOPers don’t win the trifecta in these states and redistrict the hell out of them.
Lock it down. There’s enough polling at this point.
The rest of the polls look about right. I’ll take people at their word about HI-01 being hard to poll.
I am having a real hard time believing Djou is ahead of Hanabusa. I keep thinking about the fact that Dems got about 108,000 votes in the primary and the fact that the total general election vote in the midterms has never been more than 190,000. It has been a long time since I took a math class but even I know 108,000 is more than half of 190,000. Hanubasu wins by double digits.
Close races with both candidates hovering around 40. Lassa is doing very badly, and Seals is doing very well.
These polls suggest a continuation of the realignment. Conservadems are doing very poorly in southern/rural districts. Suburban Democrats, however, are doing fine in comparison.
Roy Herron announced he won’t be voting for Nancy Pelosi. That’s always a dead give-away as a last-ditch effort to win the seat. It never works.
I had written off PA-7 and NH-2, and the fact that WV-1 and WA-3 areso competitive speaks volumes. I think dems can hold the House if this keeps up.