As you all probably know, the Republicans need to gain 40 seats to get to the majority. Here is a break down of the key races.
Democratic offense (8 seats):
In contrast to the GOP in the last couple elections, Democrats look to have an opportunity to play some offense, though their opportunities are very limited and are mostly because of GOP flaws or special circumstances.
AZ-3
CA-3
DE-AL
FL-25
HA-1
IL-10
LA-2
WA-8
I expect Dems to win 5-6 of these seats. LA-2 and DE-AL have long been almost “gimmes” because of their partisan leanings. Republicans nominated flawed candidates in AZ-3 and FL-25 which has given democratic challengers a shot. IL-10 is slightly leaning left, while WA-8 leans slightly right. CA-3 is an outside pickup chance.
Republicans:-5
Likely R takeover (16 seats):
These seats have seen consistent polling leads for the Republican challengers and/or other signs (like the DCCC pulling out), and look like lost causes:
AR-2
CO-4
FL-2
IL-11
IN-8
KS-3
LA-3
NH-1
NY-29
OH-1
PA-3
TN-6
TN-8
TX-17
VA-2
VA-5
It is tough to hold conservative seats in a year like this, particularly open ones. Most of these were long expected to be tough holds. I am surprised that Adam Kinziger was able to pull ahead in IL-11, that was a major score for Republicans. I also didn’t expect Boyd in FL-2 to have so much trouble.
In most cycles, someone holds on unexpectedly. So I will say R’s win 15 of these 16.
Republicans: +10
Lean R (13 seats):
These look like they will flip, but are not ready to be written off completely yet.
AZ-1
AR-1
FL-8
FL-24
IL-14
MI-1
ND-AL
OH-16
PA-8
PA-11
WA-3
WI-7
WI-8
Longtime Incumbents in ND-AL and PA-11 may be able to pull it out. You never know what may happen with Alan Grayson. Several of these are still close, but look to be breaking to the Republicans. Dems may pull out 2 wins from these.
Republicans: +21
Slight R lean (6 seats):
With the large amount of tossup seats, these six seats look to be very important. If republicans sweep them, it’s over. If the democrats can win at least two, they have a shot.
AZ-5
CA-11
GA-8
MI-7
MS-1
OH-15
PA-7
GOP wins 4-5, probably 5. Democrats have a chance in all of them though.
Republicans: +26
Tossups (20):
The copious amounts of tossup seats has been well-chronicled. These are the seats that will decide the majority. I have narrowed my tossups down, and these are the ones that could easily go either way.
AZ-8
CA-47
CO-3
CO-7
CT-4
IA-3
MA-10
MD-1
NV-3
NH-2
NM-2
NY-19
NY-23
NC-8
OH-18
OR-5
PA-10
SC-5
SD-AL
TX-23
VA-11
WV-1
I would say R’s will probably win more of these, and tossups usually break for one party or the other. Here’s my in-front-of-a-gun picks:
GOP:AZ-8,CA-47,CO-3,CO-7,MD-1,NV-3,NM-2,NY-19,OH-18,OR-5,PA-10,SC-5,SD-AL,TX-23,VA-11
Dem:CT-4,IA-3,MA-10,NH-2,NY-23,NC-8,WV-1
That would leave Republicans at +39.
Slight D-Leaners (10):
These give a slight, insignificant advantage to Dems at this point, but remain very close.
CT-5
FL-22
GA-2
IL-17
IN-9
MI-9
NY-24
NC-11
TN-4
WA-2
At this point, I think Dems will hold on to 6-7 of these.
Repubs: +45
Dark Horse(10 seats):
AZ-7
CA-18
CA-20
IA-1
IA-2
MA-4
MN-8
NJ-12
OR-1
WA-9
These are seats that weren’t really supposed to be competitive but look like they are from surprise polls, fundraising, etc. I think Costa will lose in CA-20 after seeing how angry voters there are about the water situation. Wu in OR-1 is unpopular and opponent Rob Cornilles has run a good race. Most of these have had polling showing close races, and in any wave year, some seats like these will fall. These may be the “canaries in the coal mine” that will measure the velocity of the republican tide.
R + 48
In addition to these there are several leaning or likely D seats, as well as a lot of missed or false opportunities for the GOP, but I think this is enough to swallow for now.
I do believe that the media was too quick to give Republicans the House, but it does look like they will pull out about fifty. That number could swing about thirty seats in either directio though because of all the close races.
Here are some good resources:
http://www.cookpolitical.com/c…
http://elections.nytimes.com/2…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O…
Certainly, we can debate about races you include and races you exclude. I think a race like OH-6 (Charlie Wilson) is a lot more likely to flip than OR-1, but there are a lot of races that could easily be listed or not depending on one’s perspective.
However, you do have five big omissions:
1) AL-2 (Bright), which I would rank as tossup
2) MD-1 (Kratovil), which I would rank as lean GOP
3) NJ-3 (Adler), which I would rank as tossup
4) OH-15 (Kilroy), which I would rank as likely GOP
5) SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin), which I would rank as tossup
These should be on anyone’s list, especially if you’re looking at seats like NJ-12 and MA-4.
Another poll recently put him over 50%
VA-05 and VA-02?