SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Afternoon Edition)

• AK-Sen: I thought Joe Miller (last seen praising the COMMUNISTS!!1! in East Germany for their wall-building skills) wasn’t going to talk about his personal life anymore (i.e. personal stuff like his on-the-job politicking while working for the borough of Fairbanks)? Well, now he is, and he’s openly admitted on CNN that he was disciplined by the borough for an ethical violation. “John, I’ll admit I’m a man of many flaws,” he said. Apparently one of those flaws was using his various co-workers’ computers while they were away for lunch to rig an online poll intended to displace Randy Ruedrich as state GOP chair, then wiping out their caches to cover his tracks, then getting caught when the wiped caches were discovered. Miller said he was reprimanded and docked pay as a result. However he maintains the incident had nothing to do with his departure from the office a year and a half later (which others maintain was imminently before he was about to be fired). So… a guy is possibly about to go from not being able to hack it as a contract attorney for a city of about 25,000, to a Senator, in the space of about a year? Geez, only in America.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s no slouch either on the self-funding front: she loaned herself $20 million last quarter, bringing her all-cycle total to $41.5 million. (No word, of course, on how much of that $20 million actually has been or will be spent.) Meg Whitman was heard sniffing disdainfully and saying McMahon should call once she reaches the eight digits.

• DE-Sen: Sometimes, it’s best to keep your mouth shut and let everyone assume you’re a fool, rather than open your mouth and categorically prove it. The highlight of last night’s debate:

Republican Senate nominee Christine O’Donnell of Delaware on Tuesday questioned whether the Constitution calls for a separation of church and state, appearing to disagree or not know that the First Amendment bars the government from establishing religion….

“The First Amendment establishes the separation, the fact that the federal government shall not establish religion,” Coons said.

“The First Amendment does?” O’Donnell interrupted. “You’re telling me that the separation of church and state is found in the First Amendment?”

• KY-Sen: With Aqua Buddha suddenly back dominating coverage of this race, no one’s really stopped to ask Aqua Buddha lady what she thinks of all this. She thinks that Jack Conway’s ad’s tone is over-the-top, but agrees with the fundamentals, that it’s an accurate reflection of Rand Paul’s past views and that he should acknowledge that he’s just changed his religious views since then (instead of playing the victim).

• MA-Sen: Wait, the 2010 election hasn’t happened yet? Still not too early to talk about 2012. Rep. Mike Capuano, runner-up in the Dem primary in the special election and considered the likeliest opponent against Scott Brown in two years, is openly “mulling” the race, although his official line is “Talk to me in December.”

• NV-Sen: We finally have some confirmation on what we’d suspected, regarding Sharron Angle’s burn rate, thanks to Salon’s crack team. She may have raised $14 million, but she also spent $5.3 million on direct mail expenses last quarter in order to get that money. $920K of that went to BaseConnect and its affiliates, with $1.5 million to somebody called Patton-Kiehl, who seemed responsible for the actual printing and postage. Another $4 million went to TV ads, leaving her with the $4 million CoH she reported.

• MD-Gov: This one looks closer and closer to being wrapped up in favor of Martin O’Malley. On top of today’s Gonzales poll, there’s also news that the RGA is scaling things back in Maryland, planning to spend less than $200K for Bob Ehrlich in the final two weeks. O’Malley may also benefit from an across-the-aisle endorsement (although it’s from a figure who’s committed his fair share of apostasies): ex-Rep. Wayne Gilchrest gave him his backing today.

• MN-Gov: Here’s one more across-the-aisle endorsement (the only kind we’d bother reporting on, at this stage in the game). Tom Horner, the Independence Party candidate in Minnesota, got an endorsement from Mike Ciresi, a wealthy attorney who you might remember from losing the 2000 DFL Senate primary to Mark Dayton (wonder if there are any hard feelings there?) and ran again for Senate in 2008 but dropped out pre-convention. That may make things a smidge harder for Dayton, who needs Horner to draw votes mostly from the R column.

• AL-02: This has to be one of the weirdest IEs of the cycle: Blue America is spending in AL-02 of all places, and they’re spending $48K against Bobby Bright. I guess they hate Blue Dogs just that much.

• FL-22: You know, if you’re fighting allegations that you have links to the outlaw biker gang conveniently known as the Outlaws, probably the best way to do that is by not having bikers providing security at your rallies. Well, that’s what happened at an Allen West appearance, where bikers physically drove off a Ron Klein tracker. Video is available at the link. (At least “Sympathy for the Devil” wasn’t playing in the background.)

• NC-07: Here’s some interesting scuttlebutt out of the 7th, where Mike McIntyre is joining the I-won’t-vote-for-Pelosi brigade but where he’s also saying that he’s heard that she won’t be running for Speaker again. (That would, of course, presume having a majority; no word on whether he’s heard if she plans on running for minority leader.) Relatedly, even Mike McMahon, who’s looking like a good bet to survive his red-leaning district this year, is now sounding noncommittal but at least Pelosi-skeptical.

• OR-04: Wondering who the mysterious Concerned Taxpayers of America are, who’ve trained most of their advertising firepower on Peter DeFazio, turning this into at least a mildly competitive race? Well, it turns out there’s a grand total of two of them, each of whom has ponied up hundreds of thousands of dollars. One of them, Robert Mercer, appears to be the one with the beef against DeFazio, probably because he’s a hedge fund manager and takes issue with DeFazio’s leadership on taxing major hedge-fund transactions.

• VA-05: I guess demanding the moon and the sun when you make your initial offer in a negotiating session is a good strategy, but independent teabagger Jeffrey Clark may have taken that ridiculously far in his attempts to negotiate a dropout from the race and an endorsement for GOP candidate Robert Hurt. Clark offered to drop out if he got the chance to debate Hurt one-on-one, and then if subsequent polling didn’t have him at 25% of the vote! Hurt has refused to appear any at any debates where Clark is included, and doesn’t seem any likelier to do so now.

• WA-08: I know it’s fashionable to paint Dave Reichert as not being one of the sharpest tools in the shed, but it’s hard not to do so when he gives you so much material: at a forum with opponent Suzan DelBene, confessed in response to a question that he wasn’t familiar with the Glass-Steagall Act. (The resurrection of Glass-Steagall was one of the main things being debated as part of the financial reform package passed this year.)

• DCCC: Here’s some activity from the D-Trip that doesn’t bode well: they’ve started going on the air in NC-11 for Heath Shuler, previously thought safe based on most of the polling we’ve seen so far but has been in the crosshairs of a lot of third-party advertising from folks like Americans for Job Security. (NWOTSOTB.) They’re also increasing their buys in the coming weeks in neighboring districts SC-05 (John Spratt) and NC-07 (Mike McIntyre). Also, file this under a sorta-kinda triage decision: the DCCC is cutting off ads in NM-02, on behalf of Harry Teague. Chris Van Hollen says they’re leaving Teague in “great position,” which (shades of Steve Kagen here) is probably code for “he’s personally wealthy” and it’s time for him to buy his own bandaids.

• Polltopia: PPP is letting you choose an unprecedented six states to poll in, as part of their final round of polling. They must be renting some extra robots, because they’re planning to poll 18 different states the week before the election, although 12 states (basically, the most obvious ones) are already locked in. Go vote!

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: EMILY’s List is out with a TV spot featuring an opera guy singing a ditty about Carly Fiorina (and her time as Hewlett-Packard CEO)

• NV-Sen: Both the DSCC and NRSC are out with ads; the DSCC says that while you’re angry, don’t take it out by voting for Sharron Angle, while the GOP says Harry Reid lives in a fancy hotel and parties with supermodels

• WA-Sen: One of the Dems’ few big-money behind-the-scenes groups, Commonsense Ten, looks at Dino Rossi’s cozy connections

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin’s new ad just flat out says “John Raese uses people”

• CA-Gov: Too bad this is only a Jerry Brown web ad, because it’s one of the most effective ones we’ve seen this cycle: it ties Meg Whitman to unpopular Arnold Schwarzenegger, matching them quote for quote (UPDATE: Good news, everybody! The ad is going to be running on television, despite its one-minute length! It’s that good.)

• TX-Gov: Bill White’s new ad hits Rick Perry on his rental mansion

• SC-02: Joe “Yewwwwww Laaaaaah!” Wilson talks about dodging mortar fire in his newest ad (mortar fire that apparently landed on the other end of the airport while on what Rob Miller has been calling a Congressional junket, but that’s OK)

• TX-17: Here’s a sign that Chet Edwards has done something to show that he’s stemmed the bleeding (or at least that he called in some serious favors), as the DCCC’s back on the air here with an effective ad about bailout funds for Bill Flores’ oil company

• Original recipe Rasmussen:

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 42%, Rand Paul (R) 47%

• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero (D) 34%, Rick Snyder (R) 54%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 37%, Brian Sandoval (R) 56%

• Extra crispy Rasmussen (aka Fox/Pulse):

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (R) 43%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 40 45%, Dan Maes (R) 10%, Tom Tancredo (C) 45 40%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 46%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 49%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 49%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 45%, John Raese (R) 48%

374 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Afternoon Edition)”

  2. Those must be reversed immediately or I shall pay the $600 for a CO-Gov poll, receive the same result and wonder forever why I ever doubted the power of the force in Scotty.

  3. but I do like that Maes looks like he may fall under the 10% mark, which will make the Colorado GOP a “minor party” on the CO ballot for the next few years.

    http://www.coloradopols.com/sh…

    Also, if Blue America’s attack on Bobby Bright is a clear attack on him from liberals, that might end up helping him in his reelection battle. Now if Nancy Pelosi were to come out and say some mean things about him, that might just put him over the top…

  4. I can easily see soft Dayton supporters and Republicans not quite comfortable with Emmer shifting to this guy in one massive momentum shift that occurs in about 90% of Minnesota gubernatorial elections.  It strikes me as unlikely that Tom Horner can endure this much uninterrupted adulation from just about everybody with a bully pulpit for a sustained period between now and election day and remain at 14% in the polls.

  6. that Dayton beat Ciresi in the 2000 Senate primary after they both spent millions apiece.  Maybe some lingering resentment?  Ciresi also terms himself a progressive moderate, but so does Klobuchar and she’s a standard Democrat for the most part.

  7. has to be the Fox poll in California that shows Prop 19 losing 46-47. Normally I’d say “well, that’s just Fox/Rasmussen” but their Sen/Gov numbers seem to align with everyone else.

    It’s been a few weeks since I’ve seen a poll on Prop 19, and it was up but under 50 then. If its support is negative now, I’m very worried about its chances.

  8. of all the changes in spending over the last couple of days for House candidates? I’m trying to make more sense of what each committee and the outside groups are up to.  

  10. The post primary polls (all 2 of them)show a very close race, with either dubie or shumlin able to win.  Is Shumlin pulling ahead, or do the fundamentals of the undecideds favor dubie?  vote for VT to find out.  I’d like to point out that it’s nearest competition is CT which is certain to be polled again It’s already been polled by rassy, PPP, Q-pac, RAssy double down extra crispy, CNN and CT capital report.  2 pollsters have polled vt, rassy and the poll commissioned by Vermont Public Radio (who do a great weekly program called vermont this week available through itunes for anyone who’d like to know more about VT politics).  

    Heck, if VT wins, maybe we could ask questions like “would you be in favor of a howard presidential candidacy in 2012 or 2016?” and approvals on Bernie.  Please consider this when voting.

  18. This and the DCCC entry into TX-17 this week tell me at least a couple of veteran Democrats aren’t ready to walk off into the sunset without a fight.  I love it!

  19. This is a little off-topic, (admittedly), but is anyone else constantly distracted by the pile of blood covered dead pigs on the sidebar ad? I dunno, it just bothers me having that right beside the stuff I’m trying to read, might not reflect the best on things either.  

  24. First, in AZ-07: did race-baiting do really well in AZGOP message testing or something? Or maybe they just really respect the ‘stache? Either way, I’m sure turning Grijalva into a classic bandito caricature will play great in a 55% Hispanic district.

    Meanwhile, in AZ-08: Republic National Committeeman Bruce Ash is trying to raise support and donations for Jesse Kelly among Jews by attacking Giffords as someone who only “claims to be a Jewess.” He then goes on to attack the religion of many modern Jews as not actually being Judaism but liberalism. He’s getting pushback from the local Jewish community for a variety of reasons, including for first posting such a strong critique of Judaism and one of the most prominent Jewish politicians in Arizona on an explicitly Christian blogs. The response by Jewish community leaders (also contained in the above link) takes particular exception to the sentiment that Giffords somehow isn’t Jewish enough when her family has deep roots in the Tucson Jewish community. So far, Kelly (or McClung for that matter, who’s also mentioned the blog) haven’t tried to separate themselves from these comments even though they’re from someone as prominent as Ash. We’ll see if this one has any legs.

  25.    His new post on Pennsylvania reminds me why I read him less often now that he is with the NY Times.  He believes PPP is less trustworthy because they do work for liberal Daily Kos.  He also takes Rasmussen as the God’s honest truth.  Hm, what does this mean?  It means Nate Silver is the newest member of The Village.

     Still waiting for him to give PPP credit where credit is due on West Virginia and Delaware Senate races.  They were the first to showcase unexpected poll numbers.

     And of course, Nate Silver himself found that PPP has no house effect, but Rasmussen does!

  28. I was chatting with my mom just now while the TV was on during the local news. Here are the ads I saw:

    1) An ad from the NO on Prop 23 campaign

    2) One from the Fiorina campaign moaning about job loses and partisanship.

    3) One from Jerry McNerney attacking David Harmer on social security privatization. (I’m not in his district, but his and Speier’s districts are in the SF Bay Area market.)

    4) An eMeg ad attacking Jerry Brown for being supported by the evil teacher’s union.

    And I’ve seen a handful of Brown/Boxer ads when I’m watching Law and Order SVU/LA on Wednesday night on NBC.

  31. the big buys

    Team Red

    AK-SEN: $97K from Senate Conservatives Fund (we’ll count it)

    AK-SEN: $162K from NRSC

    CO-SEN: $141K from American Crossroads

    CO-SEN: $787K from NRSC

    FL-SEN: $100K from Rightchange.com against Crist

    IL-SEN: $185K from New Prosperity Foundation

    IL-SEN: $825K from NRSC

    IL-SEN: $128K from American Hospital Association

    KY-SEN: $438K from NRSC

    NV-SEN: $350K from NRSC

    OH-SEN: $135K from Alliance for America’s Future

    PA-SEN: $1,738K from NRSC

    WA-SEN: $221K from American Crossroads

    WA-SEN: $940K from NRSC

    WV-SEN: $679K from NRSC

    WV-SEN: $308K from First Amendment Alliance

    CA-45: $97K from

    OH-12: $122K from American Hospital Association

    PA-06: $106K from American Hospital Association

    Team Blue

    CO-SEN: $720K from AFSCME

    KY-SEN: $104K from Kentucky Leadership Council

    NV-SEN: $200K from Votevets.org

    AZ-05: $101K from America’s Families First

    AZ-07: $251K from America’s Families First

    CO-03: $276K from Majority Action PAC

    CO-07: $136K from National Association of Realtors

    IN-02: $255K from National Association of Realtors

    MD-01: $400K from America’s Families First

    MI-07: $238K from AFSCME

    MI-09: $130K from America’s Families First

    ND-01: $264K from America’s Families First

    NM-01: $150K from Defenders of Wildlife

    NM-02: $115K from Accountability 2010

    OH-16: $343K from AFSCME

    PA-03: $399K from AFSCME

    VA-05: $251K from America’s Families First

    VA-05: $180K from Votevets.org

    WI-07: $375K from America’s Families First

    WI-08: $290K from America’s Families First

  32. by an organization called “On Target Research.” Anyone have any idea who these folks are?

    It was primarily about CT-Gov. After all the basic questions, the operator started reading me a bunch of statements and wanted to get my reaction to them. The first was something about Malloy capitulating to unions.

    I got the feeling the call was message testing for Republicans, so I said goodbye, and hung up.

  34. this GREAT polling day with the mediocre generic ballot polls we’ve seen recently? Gallup, Rasmussen, even NBC today at R+7…

    Do trends show up on the national level AFTER we see them play out in individual races?

    Most of today’s Dem-friendly results have been Senate-related. Is it that trends in Senate races are independent of the national House ballot?

    What’s going on here? Will we see a surge for Dems on the national ballot over the next two weeks?

  35. please vote for SC or VT. There’s been no polling on Dubie/Shumlin and it looks like Sheheen/Haley is getting tighter.

    Jensen is not doing congressional polls, so there’s no reason to do Maine.

  36. There is a legitimate or at least semi-legitimate argument that the Constitution does not protect the seperation of church and state. The phrase comes from a letter by Thomas Jefferson, while James Madison was the alleged drafter of the First Amendment and may have had a broader view of state/church relations.

    The actual relevant text is, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof . . .”

    So the claim is that this is restricted to prohibiting government from funding an official church and prohibiting government from banning religions. It doesn’t say that priests can’t be politicians or donate to politicians or that politicians can’t be religious and donate to churches. And there have been some claims that government may fund religion, as long as everyone has a choice of which religion they wish their tax dollars to go to.

  38. While poll after poll since August has basically showed Republican Rick Snyder leading Virg Bernero by 20 points, I call BS on the most recent Ras poll.  They had Bernero, pre-debate, down only 13%, but somehow after the debate — which EVERYONE said brought home some of Bernero’s undecideds — he’s back down 20%?

    Rick is most likely to win, but he topped out long ago.  It’s safe to say the race is much closer than any pollster is giving it.

  39. For nearly a year, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has been desperately trying to devise a way to energize Hispanic voters in his quest to secure a fifth term, and his GOP opponent and a GOP-linked group may have just handed him two.

    Democrats and Hispanic groups said Tuesday that they believe Republicans have inadvertently delivered themselves a double whammy that could increase Latino voter turnout in Nevada, where public polls have shown Reid tied for months with his tea party-influenced challenger, Sharron Angle.

    http://www.rollcall.com/news/5…

  41.   A poster at Pennsylvania Progressive says he got polled by Monmouth about the Gerlach-Trivedi race.  I am going to go out on a limb (snark) a predict a tight race.

  46. Mississippi 1

    D: Travis Childers: 39%

    R: Alan Nunnelee: 44%

    Arizona 5

    D: Harry Mitchell: 42%

    R: David Schweikert: 45%

    Wisconsin 8

    D: Steven Kagen: 44%

    R: Reid Ribble: 45%

    Illinois 14

    D: Bill Foster: 42%

    R: Randy Hultgren: 43%

    Illinois 17

    D: Phil Hare: 38%

    R: Bob Schilling: 45%

    Pennsylvania 8

    D: Patrick J. Murphy: 46%

    R: Michael G. Fitzpatrick: 43%

    Pennsylvania 10

    D: Christopher Carney: 41%

    R: Thomas A. Marino: 41%

    New Hampshire 1

    D: Carol Shea-Porter: 42%

    R: Frank Guinta: 47%

    New York 19

    D: John Hall: 43%

    R: Nan Hayworth: 43%

    New York 24

    D: Michael Arcuri: 47%

    R: Richard Hanna: 37%

    http://thehill.com/house-polls…

    not quite Armageddon

  48. You would think he would be toast considering he’s running against the same guy that almost beat him two years ago when everything was going well for the Democrats. And also since he made that idiotic flip on healthcare. I can’t complain those whatever keeps the seat Democratic is fine with me.

    As for the other Hill polls. Not really a lot of surprises in my opinion. I think in Mississipi 1 Childers is doing a decent job of keeping it close. But I think that seat will flip. Arizona-05 again another close one but I do think that seat will flip to. Wisconsin-08 does not look as bad as I thought It would be. Illinois-14 is a pure toss-up. Hare in Illinois 17 really has a problem. I’m growing more optamistic about some of the Pennsylvania races. Now that Sestak appears to be surging I would move both Pennsylvania-07 and Pennsylvania-08 back into toss-up range. For New Hampshire-01 I do think that seat will flip but Shea-Porters been underpolled before so anything can happen. New York-19 is another tight one. I think aside from New York -29 that’s probably the GOPS next best shot at taking one of the seats in New York  

  49. Saw my 1st TV ad from the WA-3 race tonite, a DCCC ad against Herrera. Pretty standard Democrat boilerplate: she supports tax breaks to companies shipping jobs overseas, etc.

    This was Seattle media, the bulk of the district is in the Portland media market, but Thurston County (Olympia) is covered by the Seattle stations.

  50. SD-01, ND-01, WV-01, WI-07, WA-03, WA-02, VA-11, VA-05, VA-02, TX-23, TX-17, TN-04, SC-05, PA-12, PA-11, PA-10, OR-05, OH-18, OH-16, OH-06, NY-24, NY-23, NY-20, NY-19, NV-03, NM-01, NH-02, NC-11, NC-08, NC-07, MS-01, MS-04, MI-07, MI-01, MD-01, MA-10, KY-06, IN-09, IN-02, IL-17, IL-14, IL-10, IA-03, IA-02, HI-01, GA-08, GA-02, FL-25, FL-02, CO-07, CO-03, CA-20, CA-11, AZ-05, AZ-01, AR-01, AL-02

    This looks like our homestretch defence.  There’s good news and bad news in there.

    Good news: FL-25 still on the table, big attack in IL-10, and races like VA-05, MD-01, PA-11 remain alive.  numbers in MA-10, GA-08 don’t seem like panic numbers.  not feeling the need to defend MN-01, OH-13, VA-09, AZ-07 here.

    Bad news: expanding into WA-02, VA-11, CO-07, NC-11, MS-04.  also expanding to FL-02, SD-01, NY-19, but I don’t find those to be particularly bad news.

  51. Pat Miles, Democrat for Michigan’s 3rd, announced another 50 Republican endorsements, yesterday, bringing the total number of Republican endorsements for him to 100.

    http://www.freep.com/article/2…

    This is President Jerry Ford’s old district, and one of the endorsements, yesterday came from his half-brother.  This is a very reliably Republican district (probably the second most in the state), but the GOP nominated a very conservative guy and it has sent many of the districts moderate Republican in and around the city of Grand Rapids running for Miles. I’m really interested to see how close Miles comes to Amash when this all washes out.

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