PA-Sen: PPP Sees Sestak Pull Into Small Lead

Public Policy Polling (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-16 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 46 (36)

Pat Toomey (R): 45 (45)

Undecided 9 (20)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

It was reasonable to expect Joe Sestak to make a late move in the polls in the general election against Pat Toomey as he did against Arlen Specter in the general election (recall that he didn’t pull into contention there until the last few weeks), given his strategy of lying low, waiting until people are actually paying attention, and then barraging the electorate with a well-chosen salvo of ads. Other than a couple of easily-dismissed Dem internals last week, though, there was no evidence this was having any effect this time around… until now.

Today’s results are quite the turnaround since the last PPP poll. Part of that is that the enthusiasm gap seems to have gotten alleviated very quickly. It’s been two months since PPP last polled, so we can’t tell whether this was gradual, over the last few months — as yesterday’s AFL-CIO memo that discussed this race, and talked about how union members were finally coming around to Sestak, mentioned — or suddenly. But at any rate, we’ve gone from a 1-pt McCain electorate last time, to a 49-45 Obama electorate now. On top of that, Sestak has consolidated his base and improved his standing among independents: while Sestak was getting only 64% of Dems last time, now he’s getting 77%. And his 50-23 deficit among indies last time, he’s now down only 49-48.

This may still seem to have a whiff of outlier to it until we get some confirmation from other sources… that’s pretty stark when you look at how little impact it had on the overall trendlines in this often-polled race. However, PPP has tended to be the first to spot things this cycle, ranging from MA-Sen to both the Raese surge and plunge in WV-Sen lately, so while I’ll again caution about not getting overly confident in pulling this one out, I suspect this is the beginning of some real tightening.

139 thoughts on “PA-Sen: PPP Sees Sestak Pull Into Small Lead”

  1. …whether the Sestak campaign strategy “lay low until the very end and then jump up and yell ‘Surprise'” is an effective strategy that should be taught to other candidates in the future. It seems like it works.

  3. Someone another site posted the partisan make up of the past 4 elections and PPP’s electorate had a higher percentage of Democrats than in 2008. Hopefully the top lines are right even if the internals are a little weird.

  4. I will say that as a Democratic polling firm, PPP’s has been surprisingly fair and fairly accurate with the primaries so far.

    I’m not surprised that Sestak is gaining, the question is if it’s enough to overcome PA’s rather sharp turn to the right this year. I’m still inclined to think that Sestak is still behind, perhaps by only 3-4 points instead of the 8-10 that other pollsters have been showing.

  5. I smelt something was in the air and about to break open in both PA and CO. Someone posted here last night that dems have been posting internals on IL, CO, PA, WV, and WI that the GOP is not answering. Save WI, I think we may be seeing some real movement going in our direction.

  6. That one PA-Republican, I forget the UID, he was so adament in pressing the memo that PA would be a bloodbath for Democrats. It’d be even more devestating if Lentz pulls it off in PA-07. Mainly I see that happen because I don’t see too many Sestak-Meehan voters and Sestak is certain to win this district.

  9. This is all reasonable.  I’ve said it a trillion times before but only Ryan and a few others disagreed.  Sestak was always in this.  Philly always returns to Dems.  PA is perfectly suited for the 1-2 punch of Obama in philly and Clinton in central west pa to drive turnout.  All this equals barmburner on election night.

    One other mote.  Keep am eye on Pa-gov.  If imitators breaks 44 it bodes well.for sestak and Dems statewide.

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