Firewall for the last 10 days.

With the spirit of FIGHT until the last day…

This is the code for some statewide offices included in the next boxes (quotes):

AG=Attorney General

SS=Secretary of State

ST=State Treasurer

SC=State Comptroller

SA=State Auditor

IC=Insurance Commissioner

CL=Commissioner of Labor

LIKELY GAINS FOR BOTH SIDES

The order is not the most important thing here.

REPUBLICAN LIKELY GAINS WHAT I ASSUME AT THIS POINT

SENATE (3D):

ND-Sen

IN-Sen

AR-Sen B Lincoln

GOVERNOR (7D):

WY-Gov

KS-Gov

TN-Gov

OK-Gov

OH-Gov T Strickland

MI-Gov

IA-Gov C Culver

HOUSE (25D):

TN-06

KS-03

LA-03

IN-08

AR-02

FL-02 A Boyd

TN-08

OH-16 J Boccieri

VA-02 G Nye

MI-01

NY-29

IL-11 D Halvorson

PA-03 K Dahlkemper

NH-01 C Shea-Porter

OH-01 S Driehaus

WI-07

WA-03

OH-15 M Kilroy

PA-11 P Karjorski

FL-24 S Kosmas

TX-17 C Edwards

VA-05 T Perriello

AR-01

WI-08 S Kagen

CO-04 E Markey

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (7D):

LA-LG

KS-LG

OK-LG

MI-LG

IA-LG

AR-LG

OH-LG

STATEWIDE OFFICES (15D):

AL-CAI (Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries)

AR-CSL (Commissioner of State Lands)

KS-SS C Biggs

OK-AG

KS-ST D McKinney

OK-ST

KS-AG S Six

OK-CL L Fields

GA-AG

FL-CFO (Chief Financial Officer)

IL-SC

OK-SA S Burrage

OK-IC K Holland

OH-AG R Cordray

AR-SS

In the other side the likely democratic gains would be:

SYMMETRIC CRITERION FOR THE DEMOCRATIC LIKELY GAINS

SENATE (0R):

—

GOVERNOR (5R+1I):

RI-Gov F Caprio

MN-Gov M Dayton

HI-Gov N Abercrombie

CT-Gov D Malloy

FL-Gov A Sink

CA-Gov J Brown

HOUSE (2R):

DE-AL J Carney

IL-10 D Seals

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (6R):

VT-LG S Howard

MN-LG Y Prettner Solon

HI-LG B Schatz

CT-LG N Wyman

FL-LG R Smith

CA-LG G Newsom

STATEWIDE OFFICES (3R):

NM-CPL (Commissioner of Public Lands) R Powell

CA-IC D Jones

VT-SA D Hoffer

Still they are not enough data for have a strong opinion about VT-LG, NM-CPL, CA-IC and VT-SA, My numbers tell what the democratic side can be favored.

That would give net loses until now of:

Senate: -3

Governor: – 1 (FL-Gov is a gain from the Independents)

House: -23

Lieutenant Governor: – 1

Statewide Offices: -12

This mean the democrats can not have net loses of 5 senate seats (looking to J Lieberman) and 16 house seats from the next Firewall for keep the majority in both chambers.

FIREWALL FOR FIGHT HARD THE LAST 10 DAYS.

LEVEL1: Hard work bust still some hope

SENATE (0D 1R):

—

KY-Sen J Conway

GOVERNOR (3D):

NM-Gov D Denish

PA-Gov D Onorato

WI-Gov T Barrett

HOUSE (11D 1R):

MS-01 T Childers

FL-08 A Grayson

AZ-01 A Kirkpatrick

PA-10 C Carney

MD-01 F Kratovil

CO-03 J Salazar

NM-02 H Teague

NY-19 J Hall

IL-14 W Foster

PA-07 B Lentz

TX-27 S Ortiz

WA-08 S DelBene

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (2D 1R):

NM-LG B Colon

WI-LG T Nelson

PA-LG H Scott Conklin

STATEWIDE OFFICES (0D):

—

This is the most difficult group of the firewall. If they are not enough money for all, the more difficult races of this group would have less help since my point.

LEVEL2: The pure Toss-Up zone

SENATE (2D):

WI-Sen R Feingold

NV-Sen H Reid

GOVERNOR (2D):

IL-Gov P Quinn

ME-Gov E Mitchell

HOUSE (18D 2R):

AZ-05 H Mitchell

ND-AL E Pomeroy

TN-04 L Davis

GA-08 J Marshall

MO-04 I Skelton

CA-11 J McNerney

MI-07 M Schauer

NY-23 W Owens

IL-17 P Hare

PA-08 P Murphy

NV-03 D Titus

TX-23 C Rodriguez

NC-02 B Etheridge

OH-18 Z Space

AZ-08 G Giffords

IL-08 M Bean

VA-11 G Connolly

OR-05 K Schrader

FL-12 L Edwards

AZ-03 J Hulburd

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (1D 1R):

IL-LG S Simon

SC-LG A Cooper

STATEWIDE OFFICES (10D 5R):

CA-AG K Harris

OK-SPI (Superintendent of Public Instruction) S Paddack

OH-ST K Boyce

AZ-AG F Rotellini

SC-SE (Superintendent of Education) F Holleman

GA-CL D Hicks

GA-CA (Commissioner of Agriculture) J Powell

CO-ST C Kennedy

IL-ST R Kelly

CO-SS B Buescher

AZ-ST A Cherny

IN-SS V Osili

SC-AG M Richardson

SD-SS B Nesselhuf

OH-SA D Pepper

In this group they are a decent number of underpolled races, some of them without no-one poll still.

LEVEL3: Democrats favored but with decent risk

SENATE (3D):

PA-Sen J Sestak

CO-Sen M Bennet

IL-Sen A Giannoulias

GOVERNOR (1D 1R):

OR-Gov J Kitzhaber

VT-Gov P Shumlin

HOUSE (15D 3R):

WV-01 M Oliverio

AL-02 B Bright

IN-09 B Hill

NC-08 L Kissell

SD-AL C Herseth-Sandlin

FL-22 R Klein

IA-03 L Boswell

OH-06 C Wilson

MS-04 G Taylor

PA-12 M Critz

NY-20 S Murphy

MA-10 W Keating

CO-07 E Perlmutter

NH-02 A Kuster

OH-13 B Sutton

FL-25 J Garcia

HI-01 C Hanabusa

LA-02 C Richmond

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (0D):

—

STATEWIDE OFFICES (4D):

OH-SS M O’Shaughnessy

IA-SS M Mauro

DE-ST C Flowers

NV-SC K Marshall

The republicans can win some of this races but I think will be few.

OFFICES BY STATE IN THE FIREWALL

IL=7 (Sen and Gov) Battleground state

PA=6 (Sen and Gov) Battleground state

CO=5 (Sen) Battleground state

OH=5

AZ=5

FL=4

WI=3 (Sen and Gov) Battleground state

NV=3 (Sen) Battleground state

NM=3 (Gov)

NY=3

GA=3

Other states have only 2 or 1 offices.

I wish recommend donate to the democratic candidates in the bold emphasized races.

The rest of the offices currently in democratic hands seem safer (including WV-Sen J Manchin, KY-06 B Chandler, SC-05 J Spratt, NC-07 M McIntyre and NY-24 M Arcuri as the more difficult seats). But still, for have not surprises I want some poll about:

STILL LOOKING FOR SOME POLL

STATEWIDE OFFICES (5):

VT-SS J Condos

OR-ST T Wheeler

MN-SA R Otto

NM-SS M Herrera

MO-SA S Montee

Still I have not enough strong opinion about the final result for many of the offices what I include in this firewall. I think is too early for it. I think the chance of keep the Senate in democratic hands is very high despite the risk of lose J Lieberman by party switch, and I concede not the House to the republicans. My numbers give not net gains of 8 senate seats or 50 house seats to the republicans .