Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
544 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
ran under the radar. But here’s Boxer’s new ad, featuring former HP employees testifying on Fiorina’s disastrous tenure there.
Anyone know how early voting is going? I know there isn’t party registration but there was a way to know who was voting in certain areas or by demographics.
Anyone else ever had to do that?
(CA State Sen. Jenny Oropeza up for reelection, who died Wednesday)
What makes this particularly surprising is that he represents all of Nevada that isn’t Washoe or Clark County (i.e. the cow counties).
I’ll ask it again. If November 2nd turns out badly for your side what candidates, if they won, would make election night palatable? No more than three candidates each from Sen, Gov, and the House. Mine would be:
Sen: PA-Sestak, KY-Conway, AK-McAdams
Gov: FL-Sink, OH-Ted Strickland
House: VA-05 Perriello, CA-03 Ami Bera, KS-04 Goyle
I’ll pose the reverse question too: If November is good for your party but these people manage to win it’ll bum you out for the rest of the evening.
Sen: NV-Sharron Angle, DE-O’Donnell
Gov: FL-Rick Scott
House: FL-22 Allen West
What are your choices?
How many CD’s in the country have no Governor’s race, no Senate race, and an uncontested House race?
Guess away!
With that LA-Sen poll, I’m now going to keep an eye on that race, as well as CA-44, CA-48, CA-03, WA-03, PA-12, PA-06, PA-15, NC-Sen and GA-Sen.
Now there’s a classic. Though of course it returned in a political context earlier this year in an anti-Tory video prior to the British election. That highly amusing adaptation really hit the not “common people” nature of David Cameron and George Osborne.
Some of my favorite races:
CA-08: Not because I think Republican John Dennis has much of a shot against Pelosi, but there are some interesting dynamics here. Pelosi has not campaigned in-district, Dennis has raised over $2 million, the Republican has Cindy Sheehan and Matt Gonzalez’ endorement, and he has gotten alot of press in the last couple of weeks. I don’t think it will be enough to get Dennis a win, but I wonder if it will be close enough to make Pelosi have to invest a little bit of her warchest like Barney Frank has.
NC-04: Here Republican BJ Lawson, who got barely over 45% of the vote in 2008, is running again in 2010. For a short time this race was on Silver’s potential takeover list, but it was taken off because the only poll of the race that indicated this was a Lawson internal from a very Republican pollster showing a dead heat.
However, the Price campaign has done internal polling but refuses to release it. At the same time, they bought $100k in ads at the last minute attacking Lawson for his positions on federal science funding and education. Is this a potential upset?
Early voting has been much more Republican than past years, with the Republican part of the district enthused and the Democrat part (the district is a gerrymandered college area) more questionable. Should be interesting to see on election day.
which is a massive jump from the late Sept. poll with Obama’s approval at 54.
She’s in such dire straits, probably down about 7 if this is true. It’s a wonder Fiorina has emerged unscathed (or would she actually be beating Boxer if Whitman weren’t so weak?).
Take what you will from that. I’m guessing they’re seeing if their position is too poor to win in HI-01, SC-05, MO-04, MI-07, AL-02 and whether they’re in good enough position to pull out of MD-01, VA-05 which are expensive markets. Could definitely be wrong, it could be nothing.
not a whole lot of change in the playing field, though some of the five digit buys seem pretty half-hearted. I think they’re probably giving up on IN-02, for example.
Wolf obviously has tons of money and this is his 3rd direct mail piece to arrive at my house. All have been addressed by name to me “or current resident,” my wife’s name excluded. We both moved here from across the river in D.C. in 2008 and have voted in the 2008 and 2009 generals; I (and NOT my wife) voted also in the 2009 Democratic primary and the 2009 special election for Fairfax County Board Chair. I’m a strong Democrat and my wife an independent Dem-leaner; but note that we don’t have party-based voter registration in Virginia, so campaigns operate on less information about partisan preferences than in many other states. But I also gave $250 to Barnett which is public information.
I had torn up and thrown away Wolf’s previous 2 mailers without really looking at them. But I looked at it this time to see what kind of rhetoric he uses. Wolf is very conservative ideologically and votes as such, but is temperamentally moderate and focuses on local stuff. This mailer was consistent with that. I live in McLean, and the mailer is tailored specifically for McLean and Great Falls residents. The words “Republican” and “conservative” NEVER appear on the mailer. Almost all the substance focuses on local issues. Wolf never mentions his opponent or President Obama or the Democratic Party or anyone associated with it. You wouldn’t know he’s not unopposed from reading this mailer. On issues, almost all addressed in the piece are nonpartisan, nonideological local issues, the only mild exception being a blurb on “creating new jobs” that talks about his effort to discourage outsourcing.
Barnett’s piece never mentions he’s a Democrat but has a page explicitly contrasting with Wolf on several issues. His themes come off as conservative or nonpartisan, except for mentioning support of the Wall Street Reform law.
Overall, it’s an intesting contrast, but predictable for what you’d expect in a race with a safe incumbent in a purple district.
Is it just me, or have environmental groups been running some of the best political ads this cycle? I’m sure we all remember the awesome Defenders of Wildlife ad opposing Steve Pearce.
My tivo of the Hill debate was cancelled. I saw the last twenty minuets starting with cap and trade. Any updates from anyone who saw it on CSPAN?
Who are some candidates who may sneak by this year that will likely lose in the next election? LePage is probably one, Ben Quayle (probably via primary), Bill Brady, Mark Kirk, Bob Dold(!), the guy running against Kanjo in PA, Tom Tancredo, Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, Rick Scott (seriously the guy is a criminal I would not vote for him if he was a D, shame of Florida), Rick Perry (probably retirement), Joe Miller, Bobby Shilling and I am getting sick of typing. Anyone else want to add any to the list?
Osili gets the Indianapolis Star’s endorsement. If this is a really crappy night and we win SoS for the first time in sixteen years then it will help comfort me. I have never been big on Vop and I think SoS will probably be as far as he gets statewide (maybe he runs for Congress if Carson ever retires). If your wondering why a liberal AA who changed his name is in a tossup election in a year like this is because the Republican nominee is VERY corrupt. He committed voting fraud. When he got a divorce he moved clear across town, out of the district he represented in the town council while collecting a salary for the job and benefits despite not being legally allowed to serve in the position or vote there.
The Star also endorses Republicans Tim Berry (I’ll probably vote for him) for Auditor and Richard Mourdock for Treasurer.
Can I post this here? I never post GOP ads because I understand and respect that this is a Dem blog, but this one is made by the guy who did Airplane! and The Naked Gun and has the same style. Sorry if this isn’t something I should do – if that’s the case, let me know and I’ll refrain from posting such in the future, but i thought the humor made it something everyone might chuckle at.
Accidentally put this in the wrong thread. Anyhow:
The Democrats kept up pace this week with Republicans in requesting ballots in Iowa. At their low point statewide they had a 22,000 ballot advantage on Republicans, now they’re up over 27,000.
The county numbers for the week are out, and I did up the totals for IA-03 and IA-02.
IA-03: 33,123 Dem., 25,030 Rep., 11,206 Ind.
So in IA-03, the Democratic ballot request advantage is 8,093. Their early/abentee ballot advantage in 2006 on election day was 9,449. Given that there is more of an effort to turn out Republican votes early this year, I would say that Democrats remain in good relative position.
IA-02: 35,797 Dem., 21,400 Rep., 14,406 Ind.
In IA-02, the Democratic ballot request advantage is 14,397. Their early/abentee ballot advantage in 2006 on election day was 17,044. Things look generally similar to next door: in IA-03, the Dem advantage is 85.7% of what they had in 2006, in IA-02, the Dem advantage is 84.5% of what they had in 2006.
Of note, IA-02 has Johnson County, where there has been a spike in turn out of Independents: 2,000 more have requested early ballots compared to the final totals in the county in 2006. It is likely that many are college students, lacking partisan identification, spurred to vote by the 21+ in bars initiative. This may give a slight advantage to Loebsack that he might not otherwise have.
I’m not really worried about these seats going Republican, personally.
Addendum: It so happens that the Dem advantage in IA-03 one week ago was only 6,500. It seems likely to me that their advantage will be at 2006 levels or above by election day.
Blur’s “Country House” should be next
Lots of Dems voting early in Lorain and Summit counties… the heart of her district.
I guess Ras realized the gig was up and decided to water down last week’s numbers, hence the astonishing 6 point shift to Sestak. I just can’t take these guys seriously anymore.
In many states, it even appears that the electorate so far is a little more Democratic than in 2006, although it is still early in the early voting process,” reported the firm, which was founded by Mary Beth Cahill, manager of John F. Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign, and Steve Rosenthal, a former political director for the AFL-CIO. “Further, in some states like Georgia, Florida, Michigan and North Carolina, African Americans in particular seem to be making up a greater proportion of early voters at this point than in 2006.”
Outside analysts are seeing much the same. “Democrats are not voting at as high rates as they did in 2008, but they are voting at higher rates [than Republicans] in early voting,” said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University associate professor who specializes in voter behavior.
With more and more reported news about Democrats turnout ahead of GOP turnout or just slightly below GOP turnout in many states, could it be that the enthusiasm gap was overblown?
Of course, even with good Dem turnout we could be in serious trouble if independents break heavily for the GOP this cycle.
If I were put on the spot and forced to make them.
CT: Richard Blumenthal (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R). Blumenthal.
DE: Chris Coons (D) vs. Christine O’Donnell (R). Coons.
IL: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Mark Kirk (R). Giannoulias.
IN: Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Dan Coats (R). Coats.
ND: Tracy Potter (D) vs. John Hoeven (R). Hoeven.
WV: Joe Manchin (D) vs. John Raese (R). Manchin.
FL: Kendrick Meek (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R) vs. Charlie Crist (I). Rubio.
KS: Lisa Johnston (D) vs. Jerry Moran (R). Moran.
KY: Jack Conway (D) vs. Rand Paul (R). Conway.
MO: Robin Carnahan (D) vs. Roy Blunt (R). Blunt.
NH: Paul Hodes (D) vs. Kelly Ayotte (R). Ayotte.
OH: Lee Fischer (D) vs. Rob Portman (R). Portman.
PA: Joe Sestak (D) vs. Pat Toomey (R). Wow. The hardest one so far. Sestak has had momentum lately, so I’ll go with him.
AK: Scott McAdams (D) vs. Joe Miller (R) vs. Lisa Murkokski (write-in). Murkowski.
UT: Sam Granato (D) vs. Mike Lee (R). Lee.
AR: Blanche Lincoln (D) vs. John Boozman (R). Boozman.
CA: Barbara Boxer (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R). Boxer.
CO: Michael Bennett (D) vs. Ken Buck (R). Bennett.
HI: Daniel Inouye (D) vs. Cam Cavasso (R). Inouye.
MD: Barbara Mikulski (D) vs. Eric Wargotz (R). Mikulski.
NV: Harry Reid (D) vs. Sharron Angle (R). Reid.
NY special: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Joseph DioGuardi (R). Gillibrand.
NY: Charles Schumer (D) vs. Jay Townsend (R). Schumer.
OR: Ron Wyden (D) vs. Jim Huffman (R). Wyden.
VT: Patrick Leahy (D) vs. Len Britton (R). Leahy.
WA: Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R). Murray.
WI: Russ Feingold (D) vs. Ron Johnson (R). Johnson.
AL: William G. Barnes (D) vs. Richard Shelby (R). Shelby.
AZ: Rodney Glassman (D) vs. John McCain (R). McCain.
GA: Mike Thurmond (D) vs. Johnny Isakson (R). Isakson.
ID: Tom Sullivan (D) vs. Mike Crapo (R). Crapo.
IA: Roxanne Conlin (D) vs. Chuck Grassley (R). Grassley.
LA: Charlie Melancon (D) vs. David Vitter (R). Vitter.
NC: Elaine Marshall (D) vs. Richard Burr (R). Burr.
OK: Jim Rogers (D) vs. Tom Coburn (R). Coburn.
SC: Alvin Greene (D) vs. Jim DeMint (R). DeMint.
SD: John Thune (R), unopposed apparently. Thune.
I’ve been living with my father on the Upper West Side, so I changed my voting registration. I picked up a card of endorsements by the Three Parks Independent Democrats, who were hanging out on Broadway between 96th and 97th Sts. the other day. I believe I’m in Bill Perkins’ State Senate district (the other name they mention for the Senate, Adriano Espaillat from the 31st SD, I believe, represents a district further uptown), and my state assemblyman is Daniel O’Donnell. Are either of these guys reformists?
Also, where can I see the text of the 2nd ballot initiative, which has something like 7 different items in it? Why do they do that, anyway? I seem to remember there’s some state law that there can be only two ballot initiatives each time, and that’s why they try to shoehorn everything into one or the other of them. Is that right?
20% chance Dems hold house. 30% chance they lose 60.
Last 3 to Republicans: NC-8, MI-7, MO-4. Last 3 saved by Democrats: NY-24, OH-6, IA-3.
Any insights on this race. It seems competitive with Kuster leading (albeit with a terrible pollster). Any chance we keep this seat? If we lost the Senate race and NH-1 but won here I would still be happy.
He took the jobs issue, the one thought to be his weakness, and turned it against Angle… Or rather, he had Jan Jones of Harrah’s, Jim Murren of MGM Resorts, and Larry Ruvo of Southern Nevada Wine & Spirits turn it against Angle. Good stuff IMHO, especially since A LOT OF JOBS here are directly or indirectly a result of the gaming industry and Angle is supported by the anti-gaming religious right.
Mixed Results. The Star likes incumbents and those favored to win.
IN-1 Visclosky
IN-2 Donnelly
IN-3 Stutzman
IN-4 Reid (Indy candidate, they hate the tea bagging Democrat and the corrupt incumbent)
They hit McMahon hard on WWE and general-teabagger policies
I would guess this is a fairly conservative paper from this
We do not agree with his assessment that Social Security is in good shape and fear some of his trade policies border on protectionism,
Brian Howey's new column talking about the so-called Indiana bellwether is interesting,if only for the talk of internal polls respectively showing Hill ahead narrowly in the Ninth and Republican claims of Walorski closing within four points of Donnelly in the Second.
Not the most emphatic endorsement I’ve ever read, but it plays up White’s bipartisan record and touts his ability to get results federally and internationally for the Texan economy and research sector while ripping Gov. Perry for being a hypocrite on federal funds.
Two from Ras…
TX-Gov
Perry 51(53)
White 43(42)
lol, I just realized when you put those two names together, you get Clark Kent’s boss from the Superman comics.
I tend to think of all three of these races as over. In a GOP year like this one, the odds of the Dem overtaking in either of those two southern states just seems negligible. As for CA, I consider six points to be too much of a spread to make up with a good GOTV program. Brown is quite capable of saying something stupid, but he’s in the homestretch and he’s too experiences of a politician to stray off message in the closing days.
Of course, that’s chump change compared to Whitman’s self-funding. Still, it’s notable, given Fiorina’s initial claims that she’d only give herself $$$ during the primary.
And a second article on more complete numbers from the SoS:
The secretary of state’s office has tallied all the early voting numbers, and the parties are about even. The Republicans, as they do in the urban counties, have a slight turnout edge statewide, about 2 percent. (If absentee ballots are included, the advantage switches to the Democrats by about 2,000 votes, but the turnout advantage is still slightly GOP.)
And for numbers geeks, the vote totals by county (though I don’t think these count absentees, which when folded in, bring the Dem advantage to about 2k, according to Ralston above):
It was reported that the FL early vote numbers seem decently good for Republicans compared to 2008, but Democrats have said they’re basically performing at 2006 levels so far. However there is an important thing to consider that hadn’t occurred to me,from a Herald Tribune article via Kos:
Sarasota Democratic Party chairwoman Rita Ferrandino admits there was an initial panic that set it when she saw only 30 percent Democrats in the early-voting numbers. But the more she has investigated what is going on, the more she is convinced that the U.S. Senate race is causing the voter turnout disparity for Democrats.
Ferrandino said many of the county’s best Democratic voters – those who never miss an election – report to her that they are holding off in case Democrat Kendrick Meek or independent Charlie Crist drop out of the Senate race against Republican Marco Rubio.
Two-term Democratic incumbent Chris Murphy, 37, a lawyer from Cheshire, displays the high energy and broad understanding of issues such as health care, transportation and job creation that make him the right choice for the district. He supported the national Recovery Act that brought tax breaks to individuals and families, provided money for education and created jobs with road and bridge construction work. He rightfully points to the stability that the program brought to the economy as the recession was peaking.
Two senior Dem sources tell CNN Sen Reid’s internal poll #’s show him up 6 over Repub Sharron Angle, a trend they claim has held for days
Joe Sestak has raised $600,000 on ActBlue since the beginning of the month.
Am I the only one here who is starting to get really excited that the 2010 cycle is about to end and we get to go back into candidate recruitment mode and all the other neat off-year stuff in just a week and a half (in what will be a much more fruitful cycle to boot).
In particular, can’t wait until we all get to focus on taking out Liebertraitor and Scott Brown
what does everyone think of pollster being merged with huffpo? Personally i’m not a fan, but mainly because i just want polls and trends and the site is far too cluttered.
…will GAIN 50 seats this year!!!
I’m burning up with Cyclone fever!
Him and Pelosi are doing a private fundraiser tonight after his rally and my neighborhood is swamped with police. (I live in Uptown for anyone familiar with the Twin Cities.)
based on black turnout relative to white turnout, but I don’t know any more.
But here’s some relevant music because I’ve been itching to post it:
Fiorina leads early voting 57-36, but they haven’t released gov numbers yet. I’d imagine eMeg’s under performing by a few points.
But I’ll be watching MA-05 (my “pet” sleeper for this cycle) as well as NJ-06, AR-04, IA-02, MN-08, and NM-03 as potential long-shot GOP pickups.
I’m worried about Republicans losing FL-12, FL-25, and AZ-03 most of all. Of course, only FL-12 would bother me because our candidates in the other two are jerks.
Dems had their best day as far is turnout margin in Washoe county is concerned. Daily margin down to -2% and less than 100 votes
Saturday
Dems- 1919 (41.7%)
Reps- 2013 (43.74)
Other- 670 (14.56%)
Total So far
Dems- 14092 (39.96%)
Reps- 16298 (46.22%)
Other- 4872 (13.82%)
If Oropeza wins on Nov. 2, her seat will be considered vacant when the state Senate begins its new term on Dec. 6, according to the California Secretary of State’s Office.
The governor will then have 14 days to declare a special election, which would take place 112 to 126 days later.
For Sat., Oct. 23:
4602 total voters.
2013 (or 43.7%) were Republicans.
1919 (or 41.7%) were Democrats.
671 (or 14.6%) were neither.
This is the first time in daily voting in Washoe wherein Republicans have had a less than 100 voter advantage.
As long as they’re hitting him on FL, maybe they should’ve added something like this:
Oh and by the way, Raese’s wife won’t be voting for him. Why?, because she’s registered to vote in FL
Swap Lincoln Chafee for Alex Sink, and swap Rick Scott for Tom Foley. I don’t love Sink as much as I despise Scott, and I really do like Lincoln Chafee. Honorable mention in gubernatorial champagne list to future presidential candidate Dannel Malloy.
KY-06 or NV-03 this week.
(a) Am I’m missing something? Has anyone seen an ad buy?
(b) If not, what do you make of it? I would think maybe they’ve given up on Barr in KY-06, but surely not Heck in NV-03, right?? They spent nearly $400K last week on NV-03.
Interesting database, but my gut is that it’s full of crap.
Tried to get the skinny of what is going on the ground. Lots of closet republicans showing their true colors for the first time in a decade at least. Kucinich enthusiasm down somewhat. Corrigan enthusiasm big for the closet goopers, although that is typical. Dennis is probably OK, but he will most likely have his closest race ever. The GOP blew a possible pickup opportunity had they funded Corrigan, who is a familiar name around the Cleveland area.
Also, in the past Dennis knows when he’s been in trouble and will raise the alarm bells. He has not done so this year.
Just thought I’d pass the word considering the Bill Kristol thing the other day.
And ditto Raese and Rossi. Yuck.
Not that crazy about Scott as a person, but want the GOP to control FL. If we are just talking about people, replace him with Martinez (NM).
off topic, but the San Francisco Giants just won the NLCS! That means the Giants (SF) goes up against the Rangers (Texas). Man symbolically this is going to be a feeding frenzies for super political junkies.
Forgot to include him as one of my “champagne candidates”, but he’s definitely upper echelon probably more than Sink is. I should correct that.
I’m hoping a moderate GOP or center right econ, center left social party will emerge in the next few years. chaffee would make a good member of said party.
PA-Sen:
Pat Toomey (R) 46%
Joe Sestak (D) 43%
PA-Gov
Tom Corbett (R) 50%
Dan Onorato (D) 41%
We go with state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, in our hope that, if elected, he will advocate for Connecticut in Washington as successfully as he’s advocated for the state’s people from Hartford these past two decades.
But we hope this bruising battle has made him realize how desperately Connecticut needs jobs. That great need has brought his rival, Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon, within a hair’s-breadth of Mr. Blumenthal in polls at times in this race.
If elected, he should turn his considerable skills, employed so far in fighting business excesses on behalf of the state, to helping Congress foster an atmosphere in which businesses can grow and create jobs, especially in such 21st-century industries as clean energy, stem cell research, pharmaceutical and defense R&D.
I really want to see a more moderate GOP in future. I mean, I’m an independent; it feels weird rooting against one party.
They didn’t get the message when Sen. McCain ran far to the right, picked Sarah Palin as his running mate, and got his ass kicked in 2008. Maybe they’ll get the message if Joe Miller, Rand Paul, Pat Toomey, Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, Christine O’Donnell, Rick Scott, Carl Paladino, Tom Tancredo, Paul LePage, John Kasich, and Nikki Haley all crash and burn.
Hey, a man can dream.
I had wanted to put Chafee in with the “awesome” group of governors that win, but I thought it would be more symbolic if Dems win the top jobs in the 4 biggest states.
What do I love? Campaign politics and Apple Inc.
Apple just opened a new flagship store at Lincoln Park in Chicago today (quite nice looking, build a fountain with some tables outside, redid the subway tunnel entrance). Well, guess who showed up to press the flesh with the crowd on a campaign stop? Rahm-bo
Now, I’m not a fan of Rahm, and I’m rooting against him in this race, but this REALLY makes me reconsider that. This is the kind of politiking that can win me, Trowaman, over.
Hickenlooper 49
Tancredo 39
Maes 9
Hickenlooper leads by 14 points among those who have voted already.
This is from some pollster I’ve never heard of. It’s from Landmark Communications, and it’s run by Republican political consultant Mark Roundtree. Take it for what you will.
The use of the “Communications” in the name of the firm makes me think it’s some kind of push poll thing. Any thoughts?
…few moves favorable to us this past week was to move IL-10 from tossup to lean Dem. This was just a couple days after that “We Ask America” poll gave Dold a huge 50-39 lead in what was the first lead any pollster had given him, so Cook obviously dismissed that poll and has better information that the race had not improved for Republicans at all.
It totally depends on how people perform; especially Gov and Sen candidates. Sharon Angle could surprise and be a good Senator, who knows? She has six years. Someone like Rick Scott could make people happy as Gov in which case no one will care about what he did in the private sector.
Really, it’s house members who win in Dem+ districts who have to worry about the tide receding in the next election as one cycle isn’t really enough to establish yourself. If Djou wins, he’ll have a real big fight in 2012. FL-25 might get shored up in redistricting. Even if Cao somehow pulls it out, he’ll have to fight like hell every election. If the GOP wins MA-10, they might wind up on the wrong side of redistricting.
For Republicans, that may or may not be close: Ruth McClung in AZ-07 and Sean Bielat in MA-04. The lack of polling, especially in AZ-07 is annoying because the media acts like Grijalva is dead. If either win, it will be about their opponents and they are both way to conservative to win in a normal year.
Frank Guinta, Sean Duffy, Paul Gosar, Lou Barletta, Bobby Schilling. All horrendous fits for the districts they are in. I will also add Larry Buschon if Ellsworth can by convinced to run for his old seat, as well as Mike Fitzpatrick if Murphy runs again, and Pat Meehan if Sestak can be convinved to run for his old seat. We can put a lot of these seats back into play by running former members who got washed out on the wave.
I don’t think she will beat Loebsack, but if she surprises me I think she will be a one-term wonder. Much depends on redistricting, and her home county (Wapello) could end up in a more balanced seat, but if she stays in a district dominated by Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, I don’t believe she can be re-elected. Especially if the GOP takes the House (which I think they will) and she ends up voting in lockstep with their whole agenda.
“Sir” and “ma’am” are terms of respect used to address someone ranked higher than you. A private would generally respond to a female lieutenant with “Ma’am, yes, ma’am” rather than “yes, lieutenant.”
I see Boxer’s gender argument, but the general was just following military protocol.
Where does that comment come from?
Sir = Ma’am
Boxer came off like a pompous ass. Still that is better than a pompous ass who ran her company into the ground and shipped jobs overseas.
On the other hand, he’s also against the income tax, the Federal Reserve, etc. He seems to be running as your prototypical libertarian (much moreso than, say, Rand Paul), but emphasizing the social aspects of his agenda.
I would love for these numbers to be true, but they’re way off the totality of polling.
Of course the LAT/USC September poll was more plausible, with Brown up just 49-44 and Boxer up 51-43, at a time when supposedly Boxer had a bigger lead than now according to the latest “buzz.”
On the other hand, maybe I shouldn’t be so dismissive, since an actual outcome in line with this latest LAT/USC poll wouldn’t surprise me one bit. There’s never anything surprising about Democrats overperforming their polling in a very blue state like CA.
A good day for Democrats in Early Voting Saturday. They had their best day raw vote wise vs Republicans in Clark County (+1778) and Washoe County (-94). Percentage wise they had their 2nd best day in Clark county (+9.98%) and their best day percentage wise in Washoe County (-2.04%) Dems also had their best day in CD 3 raw vote wise (+540) and percentage wise (+5.35%)
ran under the radar. But here’s Boxer’s new ad, featuring former HP employees testifying on Fiorina’s disastrous tenure there.
Anyone know how early voting is going? I know there isn’t party registration but there was a way to know who was voting in certain areas or by demographics.
Anyone else ever had to do that?
(CA State Sen. Jenny Oropeza up for reelection, who died Wednesday)
What makes this particularly surprising is that he represents all of Nevada that isn’t Washoe or Clark County (i.e. the cow counties).
http://www.harryreid.com/index…
I’ll ask it again. If November 2nd turns out badly for your side what candidates, if they won, would make election night palatable? No more than three candidates each from Sen, Gov, and the House. Mine would be:
Sen: PA-Sestak, KY-Conway, AK-McAdams
Gov: FL-Sink, OH-Ted Strickland
House: VA-05 Perriello, CA-03 Ami Bera, KS-04 Goyle
I’ll pose the reverse question too: If November is good for your party but these people manage to win it’ll bum you out for the rest of the evening.
Sen: NV-Sharron Angle, DE-O’Donnell
Gov: FL-Rick Scott
House: FL-22 Allen West
What are your choices?
How many CD’s in the country have no Governor’s race, no Senate race, and an uncontested House race?
Guess away!
With that LA-Sen poll, I’m now going to keep an eye on that race, as well as CA-44, CA-48, CA-03, WA-03, PA-12, PA-06, PA-15, NC-Sen and GA-Sen.
I love the accent of the voiceover this ad.
http://politicalticker.blogs.c…
Mason Dixon, conducted Oct. 15-19, for the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV.
Ben Chandler (D) 48%
Andy Barr (R) 44%
Undecided 8%
It’s apparently of 500 RVs (no LVs?).
http://www.kentucky.com/2010/1…
Now there’s a classic. Though of course it returned in a political context earlier this year in an anti-Tory video prior to the British election. That highly amusing adaptation really hit the not “common people” nature of David Cameron and George Osborne.
Some of my favorite races:
CA-08: Not because I think Republican John Dennis has much of a shot against Pelosi, but there are some interesting dynamics here. Pelosi has not campaigned in-district, Dennis has raised over $2 million, the Republican has Cindy Sheehan and Matt Gonzalez’ endorement, and he has gotten alot of press in the last couple of weeks. I don’t think it will be enough to get Dennis a win, but I wonder if it will be close enough to make Pelosi have to invest a little bit of her warchest like Barney Frank has.
NC-04: Here Republican BJ Lawson, who got barely over 45% of the vote in 2008, is running again in 2010. For a short time this race was on Silver’s potential takeover list, but it was taken off because the only poll of the race that indicated this was a Lawson internal from a very Republican pollster showing a dead heat.
However, the Price campaign has done internal polling but refuses to release it. At the same time, they bought $100k in ads at the last minute attacking Lawson for his positions on federal science funding and education. Is this a potential upset?
Early voting has been much more Republican than past years, with the Republican part of the district enthused and the Democrat part (the district is a gerrymandered college area) more questionable. Should be interesting to see on election day.
which is a massive jump from the late Sept. poll with Obama’s approval at 54.
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/1…
http://www.megwhitman.com/stor…
She’s in such dire straits, probably down about 7 if this is true. It’s a wonder Fiorina has emerged unscathed (or would she actually be beating Boxer if Whitman weren’t so weak?).
From the DCCC, Oct. 20-21
Maurice Hinchey (D) 51%
George Phillips (R) 34%
403 LVs.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
Surveying: MD-01, HI-01, SC-05, MO-04, MI-07, VA-05, AL-02
Take what you will from that. I’m guessing they’re seeing if their position is too poor to win in HI-01, SC-05, MO-04, MI-07, AL-02 and whether they’re in good enough position to pull out of MD-01, VA-05 which are expensive markets. Could definitely be wrong, it could be nothing.
Media buys (six digit): AZ-01, AL-02, NY-23, OH-16, IL-17, IN-09, MA-10, MD-01, MI-01, MI-07, MN-01, MO-04, MS-01, MS-04, ND-01, NH-01, NH-02, NM-01, NM-02, NY-20, WV-01, TX-23, OH-06, OH-18, OR-05, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, SC-05, TN-04, VA-02, VA-05, VA-09, WA-03, WI-07, AZ-05, CO-03, FL-02, GA-02
Media buys (five digit): HI-01, IL-14, IN-02, NC-07, NJ-03, NY-24, PA-07, PA-08, WI-08, CA-11, GA-08, IL-10, IL-11
not a whole lot of change in the playing field, though some of the five digit buys seem pretty half-hearted. I think they’re probably giving up on IN-02, for example.
Wolf obviously has tons of money and this is his 3rd direct mail piece to arrive at my house. All have been addressed by name to me “or current resident,” my wife’s name excluded. We both moved here from across the river in D.C. in 2008 and have voted in the 2008 and 2009 generals; I (and NOT my wife) voted also in the 2009 Democratic primary and the 2009 special election for Fairfax County Board Chair. I’m a strong Democrat and my wife an independent Dem-leaner; but note that we don’t have party-based voter registration in Virginia, so campaigns operate on less information about partisan preferences than in many other states. But I also gave $250 to Barnett which is public information.
I had torn up and thrown away Wolf’s previous 2 mailers without really looking at them. But I looked at it this time to see what kind of rhetoric he uses. Wolf is very conservative ideologically and votes as such, but is temperamentally moderate and focuses on local stuff. This mailer was consistent with that. I live in McLean, and the mailer is tailored specifically for McLean and Great Falls residents. The words “Republican” and “conservative” NEVER appear on the mailer. Almost all the substance focuses on local issues. Wolf never mentions his opponent or President Obama or the Democratic Party or anyone associated with it. You wouldn’t know he’s not unopposed from reading this mailer. On issues, almost all addressed in the piece are nonpartisan, nonideological local issues, the only mild exception being a blurb on “creating new jobs” that talks about his effort to discourage outsourcing.
Barnett’s piece never mentions he’s a Democrat but has a page explicitly contrasting with Wolf on several issues. His themes come off as conservative or nonpartisan, except for mentioning support of the Wall Street Reform law.
Overall, it’s an intesting contrast, but predictable for what you’d expect in a race with a safe incumbent in a purple district.
Is it just me, or have environmental groups been running some of the best political ads this cycle? I’m sure we all remember the awesome Defenders of Wildlife ad opposing Steve Pearce.
My tivo of the Hill debate was cancelled. I saw the last twenty minuets starting with cap and trade. Any updates from anyone who saw it on CSPAN?
Who are some candidates who may sneak by this year that will likely lose in the next election? LePage is probably one, Ben Quayle (probably via primary), Bill Brady, Mark Kirk, Bob Dold(!), the guy running against Kanjo in PA, Tom Tancredo, Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, Rick Scott (seriously the guy is a criminal I would not vote for him if he was a D, shame of Florida), Rick Perry (probably retirement), Joe Miller, Bobby Shilling and I am getting sick of typing. Anyone else want to add any to the list?
Osili gets the Indianapolis Star’s endorsement. If this is a really crappy night and we win SoS for the first time in sixteen years then it will help comfort me. I have never been big on Vop and I think SoS will probably be as far as he gets statewide (maybe he runs for Congress if Carson ever retires). If your wondering why a liberal AA who changed his name is in a tossup election in a year like this is because the Republican nominee is VERY corrupt. He committed voting fraud. When he got a divorce he moved clear across town, out of the district he represented in the town council while collecting a salary for the job and benefits despite not being legally allowed to serve in the position or vote there.
The Star also endorses Republicans Tim Berry (I’ll probably vote for him) for Auditor and Richard Mourdock for Treasurer.
http://www.indystar.com/articl…
I have been a loyal Democracy for America member for a long time, but I am not happy with their and PCCC’s new ad against Grassley. I don’t see how this kind of ad helps Roxanne Conlin in any way:
Blunt 49
Carnahan-40
http://www.stltoday.com/news/l…
Sen
Kirk 43
Giannoulias 41
Gov
Brady 44
Quinn 40
Cohen got 4, the Rich Whitey got 3 and the Libertarian candidate got 1%
http://www.stltoday.com/news/l…
Can I post this here? I never post GOP ads because I understand and respect that this is a Dem blog, but this one is made by the guy who did Airplane! and The Naked Gun and has the same style. Sorry if this isn’t something I should do – if that’s the case, let me know and I’ll refrain from posting such in the future, but i thought the humor made it something everyone might chuckle at.
Up 45-42 in latest tracking poll. Six point gain in two days. http://twitter.com/DCMorningCall
Did Sestek peak too early?
Accidentally put this in the wrong thread. Anyhow:
The Democrats kept up pace this week with Republicans in requesting ballots in Iowa. At their low point statewide they had a 22,000 ballot advantage on Republicans, now they’re up over 27,000.
The county numbers for the week are out, and I did up the totals for IA-03 and IA-02.
IA-03: 33,123 Dem., 25,030 Rep., 11,206 Ind.
So in IA-03, the Democratic ballot request advantage is 8,093. Their early/abentee ballot advantage in 2006 on election day was 9,449. Given that there is more of an effort to turn out Republican votes early this year, I would say that Democrats remain in good relative position.
IA-02: 35,797 Dem., 21,400 Rep., 14,406 Ind.
In IA-02, the Democratic ballot request advantage is 14,397. Their early/abentee ballot advantage in 2006 on election day was 17,044. Things look generally similar to next door: in IA-03, the Dem advantage is 85.7% of what they had in 2006, in IA-02, the Dem advantage is 84.5% of what they had in 2006.
Of note, IA-02 has Johnson County, where there has been a spike in turn out of Independents: 2,000 more have requested early ballots compared to the final totals in the county in 2006. It is likely that many are college students, lacking partisan identification, spurred to vote by the 21+ in bars initiative. This may give a slight advantage to Loebsack that he might not otherwise have.
I’m not really worried about these seats going Republican, personally.
Addendum: It so happens that the Dem advantage in IA-03 one week ago was only 6,500. It seems likely to me that their advantage will be at 2006 levels or above by election day.
Blur’s “Country House” should be next
Lots of Dems voting early in Lorain and Summit counties… the heart of her district.
http://morningjournal.com/arti…
Sestak- 44
Toomey- 48
I guess Ras realized the gig was up and decided to water down last week’s numbers, hence the astonishing 6 point shift to Sestak. I just can’t take these guys seriously anymore.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
According to the article, Dem turnout is looking closer to 2006 levels in many states so far.
WP
With more and more reported news about Democrats turnout ahead of GOP turnout or just slightly below GOP turnout in many states, could it be that the enthusiasm gap was overblown?
Of course, even with good Dem turnout we could be in serious trouble if independents break heavily for the GOP this cycle.
If I were put on the spot and forced to make them.
CT: Richard Blumenthal (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R). Blumenthal.
DE: Chris Coons (D) vs. Christine O’Donnell (R). Coons.
IL: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Mark Kirk (R). Giannoulias.
IN: Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Dan Coats (R). Coats.
ND: Tracy Potter (D) vs. John Hoeven (R). Hoeven.
WV: Joe Manchin (D) vs. John Raese (R). Manchin.
FL: Kendrick Meek (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R) vs. Charlie Crist (I). Rubio.
KS: Lisa Johnston (D) vs. Jerry Moran (R). Moran.
KY: Jack Conway (D) vs. Rand Paul (R). Conway.
MO: Robin Carnahan (D) vs. Roy Blunt (R). Blunt.
NH: Paul Hodes (D) vs. Kelly Ayotte (R). Ayotte.
OH: Lee Fischer (D) vs. Rob Portman (R). Portman.
PA: Joe Sestak (D) vs. Pat Toomey (R). Wow. The hardest one so far. Sestak has had momentum lately, so I’ll go with him.
AK: Scott McAdams (D) vs. Joe Miller (R) vs. Lisa Murkokski (write-in). Murkowski.
UT: Sam Granato (D) vs. Mike Lee (R). Lee.
AR: Blanche Lincoln (D) vs. John Boozman (R). Boozman.
CA: Barbara Boxer (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R). Boxer.
CO: Michael Bennett (D) vs. Ken Buck (R). Bennett.
HI: Daniel Inouye (D) vs. Cam Cavasso (R). Inouye.
MD: Barbara Mikulski (D) vs. Eric Wargotz (R). Mikulski.
NV: Harry Reid (D) vs. Sharron Angle (R). Reid.
NY special: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Joseph DioGuardi (R). Gillibrand.
NY: Charles Schumer (D) vs. Jay Townsend (R). Schumer.
OR: Ron Wyden (D) vs. Jim Huffman (R). Wyden.
VT: Patrick Leahy (D) vs. Len Britton (R). Leahy.
WA: Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R). Murray.
WI: Russ Feingold (D) vs. Ron Johnson (R). Johnson.
AL: William G. Barnes (D) vs. Richard Shelby (R). Shelby.
AZ: Rodney Glassman (D) vs. John McCain (R). McCain.
GA: Mike Thurmond (D) vs. Johnny Isakson (R). Isakson.
ID: Tom Sullivan (D) vs. Mike Crapo (R). Crapo.
IA: Roxanne Conlin (D) vs. Chuck Grassley (R). Grassley.
LA: Charlie Melancon (D) vs. David Vitter (R). Vitter.
NC: Elaine Marshall (D) vs. Richard Burr (R). Burr.
OK: Jim Rogers (D) vs. Tom Coburn (R). Coburn.
SC: Alvin Greene (D) vs. Jim DeMint (R). DeMint.
SD: John Thune (R), unopposed apparently. Thune.
I’ve been living with my father on the Upper West Side, so I changed my voting registration. I picked up a card of endorsements by the Three Parks Independent Democrats, who were hanging out on Broadway between 96th and 97th Sts. the other day. I believe I’m in Bill Perkins’ State Senate district (the other name they mention for the Senate, Adriano Espaillat from the 31st SD, I believe, represents a district further uptown), and my state assemblyman is Daniel O’Donnell. Are either of these guys reformists?
Also, where can I see the text of the 2nd ballot initiative, which has something like 7 different items in it? Why do they do that, anyway? I seem to remember there’s some state law that there can be only two ballot initiatives each time, and that’s why they try to shoehorn everything into one or the other of them. Is that right?
20% chance Dems hold house. 30% chance they lose 60.
Last 3 to Republicans: NC-8, MI-7, MO-4. Last 3 saved by Democrats: NY-24, OH-6, IA-3.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…
Any insights on this race. It seems competitive with Kuster leading (albeit with a terrible pollster). Any chance we keep this seat? If we lost the Senate race and NH-1 but won here I would still be happy.
He took the jobs issue, the one thought to be his weakness, and turned it against Angle… Or rather, he had Jan Jones of Harrah’s, Jim Murren of MGM Resorts, and Larry Ruvo of Southern Nevada Wine & Spirits turn it against Angle. Good stuff IMHO, especially since A LOT OF JOBS here are directly or indirectly a result of the gaming industry and Angle is supported by the anti-gaming religious right.
Mixed Results. The Star likes incumbents and those favored to win.
IN-1 Visclosky
IN-2 Donnelly
IN-3 Stutzman
IN-4 Reid (Indy candidate, they hate the tea bagging Democrat and the corrupt incumbent)
IN-5 Rokita
IN-6 Pence
IN-7 Carson
IN-8 Bucshon
IN-9 Hill
http://www.indystar.com/articl…
The Day newspaper endorses Blumenthal.
http://www.theday.com/article/…
They hit McMahon hard on WWE and general-teabagger policies
I would guess this is a fairly conservative paper from this
Brian Howey's new column talking about the so-called Indiana bellwether is interesting,if only for the talk of internal polls respectively showing Hill ahead narrowly in the Ninth and Republican claims of Walorski closing within four points of Donnelly in the Second.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2…
Not the most emphatic endorsement I’ve ever read, but it plays up White’s bipartisan record and touts his ability to get results federally and internationally for the Texan economy and research sector while ripping Gov. Perry for being a hypocrite on federal funds.
Two from Ras…
TX-Gov
Perry 51(53)
White 43(42)
lol, I just realized when you put those two names together, you get Clark Kent’s boss from the Superman comics.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
CA-Gov
Brown 48(50)
Whitman 42(44)
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
And one from Insider Advantage
SC-Gov
Haley 51
Sheehen 37
http://www.statehousereport.com/
I tend to think of all three of these races as over. In a GOP year like this one, the odds of the Dem overtaking in either of those two southern states just seems negligible. As for CA, I consider six points to be too much of a spread to make up with a good GOTV program. Brown is quite capable of saying something stupid, but he’s in the homestretch and he’s too experiences of a politician to stray off message in the closing days.
Kitzhaber by 1 in Elway poll.
http://www.oregonlive.com/poli…
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10…
Of course, that’s chump change compared to Whitman’s self-funding. Still, it’s notable, given Fiorina’s initial claims that she’d only give herself $$$ during the primary.
50-46.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Just punched the “straight Democratic” option because in Texas only irrational people and neanderthals vote GOP.
I however made sure I reviewed my choices before cast the ballot, particularly making sure I chose Bill White and my local state rep.
I hope White wins as that would be an absolute upset like GA 1998 (Barnes v Perdue), but I’m not holding my breath (sigh!).
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo…
And a second article on more complete numbers from the SoS:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo…
And for numbers geeks, the vote totals by county (though I don’t think these count absentees, which when folded in, bring the Dem advantage to about 2k, according to Ralston above):
http://www.nvsos.gov/index.asp…
Brad Ellsworth
Baron Hill
Vop Osili
Matt Pierce
No on constitutional amendment
Yes on MCCSC referendum
I’m so excited! My first election!
It was reported that the FL early vote numbers seem decently good for Republicans compared to 2008, but Democrats have said they’re basically performing at 2006 levels so far. However there is an important thing to consider that hadn’t occurred to me,from a Herald Tribune article via Kos:
http://www.courant.com/news/op…
http://www.baltimoresun.com/ne…
http://twitter.com/edhenrycnn
Joe Sestak has raised $600,000 on ActBlue since the beginning of the month.
Am I the only one here who is starting to get really excited that the 2010 cycle is about to end and we get to go back into candidate recruitment mode and all the other neat off-year stuff in just a week and a half (in what will be a much more fruitful cycle to boot).
In particular, can’t wait until we all get to focus on taking out Liebertraitor and Scott Brown
what does everyone think of pollster being merged with huffpo? Personally i’m not a fan, but mainly because i just want polls and trends and the site is far too cluttered.
…will GAIN 50 seats this year!!!
I’m burning up with Cyclone fever!
Him and Pelosi are doing a private fundraiser tonight after his rally and my neighborhood is swamped with police. (I live in Uptown for anyone familiar with the Twin Cities.)
based on black turnout relative to white turnout, but I don’t know any more.
But here’s some relevant music because I’ve been itching to post it:
Fiorina leads early voting 57-36, but they haven’t released gov numbers yet. I’d imagine eMeg’s under performing by a few points.
I posted yesterday:
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
Six digit media buy. Still think this is a very winnable race.
Just saw his advertisement on the TV. Yes, I’m currently residing in Atlanta.
Why I am seeing his ad? His district has only the tiniest overlap in the Atlanta media market. Waste of money.
Marshall to the camera: “I voted against Nancy Pelosi’s $1 trillion dollar health care, and that’s why I am not supporting her for Speaker.”
I hope the douchebag loses.
On another note, only Georgia Democrats could possibly make me miss Pennsylvania Democrats.
A legitimate third-party, tea-party candidate might allow for some unexpected results?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
But I’ll be watching MA-05 (my “pet” sleeper for this cycle) as well as NJ-06, AR-04, IA-02, MN-08, and NM-03 as potential long-shot GOP pickups.
I’m worried about Republicans losing FL-12, FL-25, and AZ-03 most of all. Of course, only FL-12 would bother me because our candidates in the other two are jerks.
AZ-03, AZ-07, CA-03, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, LA-Sen, MA-05
Dems had their best day as far is turnout margin in Washoe county is concerned. Daily margin down to -2% and less than 100 votes
Saturday
Dems- 1919 (41.7%)
Reps- 2013 (43.74)
Other- 670 (14.56%)
Total So far
Dems- 14092 (39.96%)
Reps- 16298 (46.22%)
Other- 4872 (13.82%)
For Sat., Oct. 23:
4602 total voters.
2013 (or 43.7%) were Republicans.
1919 (or 41.7%) were Democrats.
671 (or 14.6%) were neither.
This is the first time in daily voting in Washoe wherein Republicans have had a less than 100 voter advantage.
As long as they’re hitting him on FL, maybe they should’ve added something like this:
Oh and by the way, Raese’s wife won’t be voting for him. Why?, because she’s registered to vote in FL
http://failblog.org/2010/10/23…
Swap Lincoln Chafee for Alex Sink, and swap Rick Scott for Tom Foley. I don’t love Sink as much as I despise Scott, and I really do like Lincoln Chafee. Honorable mention in gubernatorial champagne list to future presidential candidate Dannel Malloy.
KY-06 or NV-03 this week.
(a) Am I’m missing something? Has anyone seen an ad buy?
(b) If not, what do you make of it? I would think maybe they’ve given up on Barr in KY-06, but surely not Heck in NV-03, right?? They spent nearly $400K last week on NV-03.
Interesting database, but my gut is that it’s full of crap.
53D/36R
Zata|3
http://twitter.com/polltrack/s…
Tried to get the skinny of what is going on the ground. Lots of closet republicans showing their true colors for the first time in a decade at least. Kucinich enthusiasm down somewhat. Corrigan enthusiasm big for the closet goopers, although that is typical. Dennis is probably OK, but he will most likely have his closest race ever. The GOP blew a possible pickup opportunity had they funded Corrigan, who is a familiar name around the Cleveland area.
Also, in the past Dennis knows when he’s been in trouble and will raise the alarm bells. He has not done so this year.
Just thought I’d pass the word considering the Bill Kristol thing the other day.
And ditto Raese and Rossi. Yuck.
Not that crazy about Scott as a person, but want the GOP to control FL. If we are just talking about people, replace him with Martinez (NM).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
off topic, but the San Francisco Giants just won the NLCS! That means the Giants (SF) goes up against the Rangers (Texas). Man symbolically this is going to be a feeding frenzies for super political junkies.
Forgot to include him as one of my “champagne candidates”, but he’s definitely upper echelon probably more than Sink is. I should correct that.
I’m hoping a moderate GOP or center right econ, center left social party will emerge in the next few years. chaffee would make a good member of said party.
PA-Sen:
Pat Toomey (R) 46%
Joe Sestak (D) 43%
PA-Gov
Tom Corbett (R) 50%
Dan Onorato (D) 41%
http://www.courant.com/news/op…
U. of Cincinnati poll.
http://news.cincinnati.com/art…
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
http://www.boston.com/news/pol…
They don’t show party breakdown here, but it was the biggest early voting day yet: 17.8k. Obama effect?
Previous record was in the low 17s last Saturday and Monday.
http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/…
I really want to see a more moderate GOP in future. I mean, I’m an independent; it feels weird rooting against one party.
They didn’t get the message when Sen. McCain ran far to the right, picked Sarah Palin as his running mate, and got his ass kicked in 2008. Maybe they’ll get the message if Joe Miller, Rand Paul, Pat Toomey, Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, Christine O’Donnell, Rick Scott, Carl Paladino, Tom Tancredo, Paul LePage, John Kasich, and Nikki Haley all crash and burn.
Hey, a man can dream.
I had wanted to put Chafee in with the “awesome” group of governors that win, but I thought it would be more symbolic if Dems win the top jobs in the 4 biggest states.
What do I love? Campaign politics and Apple Inc.
Apple just opened a new flagship store at Lincoln Park in Chicago today (quite nice looking, build a fountain with some tables outside, redid the subway tunnel entrance). Well, guess who showed up to press the flesh with the crowd on a campaign stop? Rahm-bo
http://www.ifoapplestore.com/d…
Now, I’m not a fan of Rahm, and I’m rooting against him in this race, but this REALLY makes me reconsider that. This is the kind of politiking that can win me, Trowaman, over.
Hickenlooper 49
Tancredo 39
Maes 9
Hickenlooper leads by 14 points among those who have voted already.
This is from some pollster I’ve never heard of. It’s from Landmark Communications, and it’s run by Republican political consultant Mark Roundtree. Take it for what you will.
GA-Gov:
Nathan Deal (R) 47%
Roy Barnes (D) 39%
John Monds (L) 4%
GA-2:
Mike Keown (R) 47.2%
Sanford Bishop (D) 44.9%
GA-8
Austin Scott (R) 51.4%
Jim Marshall (D) 35.1%
http://blogs.ajc.com/political…
http://blogs.ajc.com/political…
The use of the “Communications” in the name of the firm makes me think it’s some kind of push poll thing. Any thoughts?
…few moves favorable to us this past week was to move IL-10 from tossup to lean Dem. This was just a couple days after that “We Ask America” poll gave Dold a huge 50-39 lead in what was the first lead any pollster had given him, so Cook obviously dismissed that poll and has better information that the race had not improved for Republicans at all.
It totally depends on how people perform; especially Gov and Sen candidates. Sharon Angle could surprise and be a good Senator, who knows? She has six years. Someone like Rick Scott could make people happy as Gov in which case no one will care about what he did in the private sector.
Really, it’s house members who win in Dem+ districts who have to worry about the tide receding in the next election as one cycle isn’t really enough to establish yourself. If Djou wins, he’ll have a real big fight in 2012. FL-25 might get shored up in redistricting. Even if Cao somehow pulls it out, he’ll have to fight like hell every election. If the GOP wins MA-10, they might wind up on the wrong side of redistricting.
For Republicans, that may or may not be close: Ruth McClung in AZ-07 and Sean Bielat in MA-04. The lack of polling, especially in AZ-07 is annoying because the media acts like Grijalva is dead. If either win, it will be about their opponents and they are both way to conservative to win in a normal year.
Frank Guinta, Sean Duffy, Paul Gosar, Lou Barletta, Bobby Schilling. All horrendous fits for the districts they are in. I will also add Larry Buschon if Ellsworth can by convinced to run for his old seat, as well as Mike Fitzpatrick if Murphy runs again, and Pat Meehan if Sestak can be convinved to run for his old seat. We can put a lot of these seats back into play by running former members who got washed out on the wave.
I don’t think she will beat Loebsack, but if she surprises me I think she will be a one-term wonder. Much depends on redistricting, and her home county (Wapello) could end up in a more balanced seat, but if she stays in a district dominated by Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, I don’t believe she can be re-elected. Especially if the GOP takes the House (which I think they will) and she ends up voting in lockstep with their whole agenda.
http://wins.failblog.org/2010/…
wow.
“Sir” and “ma’am” are terms of respect used to address someone ranked higher than you. A private would generally respond to a female lieutenant with “Ma’am, yes, ma’am” rather than “yes, lieutenant.”
I see Boxer’s gender argument, but the general was just following military protocol.
Where does that comment come from?
Sir = Ma’am
Boxer came off like a pompous ass. Still that is better than a pompous ass who ran her company into the ground and shipped jobs overseas.
they endorse shumlin, as they did in the primary.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress…
According to his website.
On the other hand, he’s also against the income tax, the Federal Reserve, etc. He seems to be running as your prototypical libertarian (much moreso than, say, Rand Paul), but emphasizing the social aspects of his agenda.
…Brown up 52-39 and Boxer up 50-42.
http://www.latimes.com/news/lo…
I would love for these numbers to be true, but they’re way off the totality of polling.
Of course the LAT/USC September poll was more plausible, with Brown up just 49-44 and Boxer up 51-43, at a time when supposedly Boxer had a bigger lead than now according to the latest “buzz.”
On the other hand, maybe I shouldn’t be so dismissive, since an actual outcome in line with this latest LAT/USC poll wouldn’t surprise me one bit. There’s never anything surprising about Democrats overperforming their polling in a very blue state like CA.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
A good day for Democrats in Early Voting Saturday. They had their best day raw vote wise vs Republicans in Clark County (+1778) and Washoe County (-94). Percentage wise they had their 2nd best day in Clark county (+9.98%) and their best day percentage wise in Washoe County (-2.04%) Dems also had their best day in CD 3 raw vote wise (+540) and percentage wise (+5.35%)
Clark County
Saturday
Dems 8,441 (47.38%)
Reps 6,663 (37.4%)
Other 2,712 (15.22%)
Total
Dems 56,274 (46.49%)
Reps 46,148 (37.82%)
Other 19,143 (15.27%)
Washoe County
Saturday
Dems 1,919 (41.7%)
Reps 2,013 (43.74%)
Other 670 (14.56%)
Total
Dems 14,092 (39.96%)
Reps 16,298 (46.22%)
Other 4,872 (13.82%)
CD-03
Saturday
Dems 4,534 (44.9%)
Reps 3,994 (39.55%)
Other 1,570 (15.55%)
Total
Dems 31,484 (43.6%)
Reps 29,066 (40.25%)
Other 11,665 (16.15%)