Public Policy Polling (10/21-23, likely voters, 9/30-10/2 in parens):
John Hickenlooper (D): 47 (47)
Dan Maes (R): 5 (13)
Tom Tancredo (C): 44 (33)
Undecided 4 (7)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 47 (46)
Ken Buck (R): 47 (45)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Wow, here’s one more case this cycle of conventional wisdom about a race changing on a dime. John Hickenlooper spent several months looking like a near shoo-in for Governor, thanks to the split ultra-conservative field between Dan Maes and Tom Tancredo. The only thing that could change that would be one of them dropping out, or utterly collapsing… and it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening with Maes, who’s become this cycle’s Dede Scozzafava (without all the moderate apostasy, of course), polling at all of 5% with 8/75 favorables. Tancredo has somehow rehabilitated his image too, taking his old 27/50 faves from August and turning them into a positive 45/44, and even pulling into a 46-44 lead among independents.
Hard to believe the super-tight Senate race would ever play second fiddle here, but it’s seen very little movement, with Bennet falling from a 1-pt lead to a tie, all boiling down to float within the margin of error. This is one of those Senate races like Illinois where it’s really a question of who’s less disliked: Bennet (40/51) or Buck (44/49)?
For comparison purposes, it’s worth taking a look at the SurveyUSA poll that came out this weekend from an overlapping timeframe (10/19-21). They really don’t see the same thing happening in the gubernatorial race (they see Hickenlooper up 46-34-15). But interestingly, they’re moving into a convergence with PPP on the Senate race that it’s a flat-out tie (where PPP had tended to be one of the most Bennet-friendly pollsters before, while SUSA last saw this as a 5-pt Buck lead). I’d been under the impression (as seen here by SUSA) that the last-minute momentum in the Senate race was with Bennet (probably thanks mostly to the “buyer’s remorse” problem for Buck), so I’m surprised to see him not move up in PPP, but this might suggest they were overstating his support the last couple times.
How does tom tancredo get 43% with hispanics?
SUSA was weekday. Different enough universes to get these results. Harder to get young and Latino voters on phone on weekend, leading to tiny raw samples and strange results once weighted. Talked to people close to Hick and their internals are close to SUSA. Not worried.
I always feared this would happen. Hicks numbers seem stagnant and the inability to get over 50% all through the election was an omen that he was only ahead b/c of the split vote. Unfortunately it is now looking more and more likely that Tancredo will win this race b/c of Hicks lackluster and uninspiring campaign.
voters know how racist Tancredo is. If Hick is running a positive campaign and Maes is broke, I am guessing no one is attacking Tancredo.
It would be nice just once this cycle to have CW change on a dime in favor of the Dems. Just once.
about Hickenlooper being Dukakis re-born here…
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
I will say that there is still a good chance that Hick will win, notwithstanding this wanker of a campaign. I mean, how the fuck do you even get tied with a nut like Tancredo in ANY election? I mean, if this was AK, WY or ID, maybe, but most certainly NOT Colorado.
If there is anything this 2010 election cycle has shown me so far is that while we have a better message overall and our policies end up helping the country, we need to improve in the candidate recruitment department, particularly avoid having default feel of the moment lazy paper-fine but street-foolish candidates taking up the Dem nomination.
IN short, we need more assasins and black widows, not pussyfooting lazy wussies who screw up 20 point leads against nonentities.
if they included the Libertarian, just to see if Tancredo is/isn’t a vote sink for NOTA voters, some of which will flee to Libertarians and other Independents.
Also, I know Hickenlooper would need to go against his nice guy rep to do the following, but he should. If the Republicans pass something to get their major party status back for 2012, Hickenlooper should veto it. They could make major party status apply for getting any statewide candidate over 20% or something, but not retroactively.
In his unwillingness to attack. Hickenlooper must think he’s running for mayor of Mayberry or something.
It’s Tancredo’s and Maes’ numbers that are different. It all depends on how much Tancredo peels off from Maes, because Hickenlooper’s number seems stable. Hickenlooper still has a lead, so he’ll be fine.
…there he said it would be “competitive”, I was worried that meant hick was actually losing (‘cos PPP likes to do that a lot in their previews). This would probably be the worst case scenario–Maes at 5%, so if Hick is still leading after that, then, he should be ok, I would hope!
No Candidate/LaRouchie in 1986. Maes should get slightly under that in a no-straight ticket state in a Republican year.
Old habits are tough to break for some people.
If Colorado had straight ticket, Tancredo would lose enough votes to be a guaranteed loser while the ACP candidates would get enough votes to mess with downticket Republicans.
This PPP poll says that most of the remaining undecideds are Republicans, but I find these fine crosstabs vary a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if PPP differs from that SurveyUSA poll of a couple days ago on this point. Yet, I can’t find the crosstabs in the SurveyUSA poll.
What’s the deal? This is effectively the worse case scenario for Maes. The only thing I’m seeing is that Hickenlooper needs to hit Tancredo hard and negative in the end stretch. He really doesn’t have to do anything other than quote him speaking to drive his unfavorables back up to 55-58%.