WV-Sen: Manchin Pulling Away, According to PPP

Public Policy Polling (10/23-24, likely voters, 10/9-10 in parens):

Joe Manchin (D): 50 (48)

John Raese (R): 44 (45)

Undecided: 6 (7)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Here’s some pretty good news out of the Mountain State: PPP’s newest poll of the Senate race has Joe Manchin putting some extra distance between him and John Raese. (PPP, of course, was the first to find Manchin back in the lead, after also being the first to find Manchin trailing. In fact, come to think of it, other than that one PPP poll, the only pollster that’s ever given Raese the lead has been the Rasmussen/Fox axis.)

Manchin remains extremely personally popular (69/23 approval), and the only reason he’s not running away with this is Barack Obama’s horrible 31/65 approval, and GOP leads on generic ballot questions. The reason for his small gain seems to be that he’s even making some inroads among self-identified conservative voters (up to 24% with them, from 17% last time).

In case there were any doubts about what space Manchin would occupy in the next Congress… and just to make sure he keeps making even more inroads with those conservative voters… Manchin’s latest statement to the media has him questioning whether he’d back that wild-eyed liberal Harry Reid for majority leader, or even back Obama for president in ’12. Raese, on the other hand, is in the news for some one-hand-punching-the-government, other-hand-in-the-trough hypocrisy (though nothing quite rising to Ron Johnson levels yet). The Charleston Gazette details how his company, Greer Industries, has racked up $2.4 million in federal contracts and $32 million in state contracts in the last decade.

78 thoughts on “WV-Sen: Manchin Pulling Away, According to PPP”

  2. with it. You aren’t going to get much better than that in a state that has been trending away from the Democrats for years.

    As for him saying he won’t vote for Obama in 2012, who cares as long as he doesn’t go out and stab Obama in the back like Lieberman did.  

  3. Other than getting himself elected.  Look at what Democrats have become – so scared of the GOP candidates that they’re willing to elect this stooge that runs against the President, and says he wouldn’t have voted for HCR.

    This guy has always been about himself.  There was no need for an election this year, however he knew he couldn’t name himself to the Byrd seat, and didn’t want to put somebody else there for two years.  

    Electing Raese would be better for the Dems, because he’s show exactly how craven they are, and somebody other than Manchin could take him on in 2012.  

  4. about him not supporting Reid or anything similar bother me–that is, if he intends to be about as invisible as Mark Pryor. If he plans to move up or assume some sort of visible leadership role, and he doesn’t quickly make amends for these comments, well…he’s living in a fantasy land.

    My guess is, it’s the former more than the latter. Or so I hope.

    As far as hypocrisy involving people like Raese and Johnson, I’m almost convinced that Democrats should just say whatever they want, whenever they want, as long as they say something before their Republican opponents do. To voters, what these people say matters far more what they do, which is insane.  

  5. Well, not really WV-3. I’ve long sense been 100% confident Nick Rahall was going to come through and win.

    But perhaps a better outlook for Oliverio (sic?) in WV-1 now?

  6. I know I’m being a jerk, but yeesh. It’s a tie to a decent Manchin lead, with a narrow Manchin lead the most likely actual snapshot. Maybe Manchin will be found in bed with a dead girl or live boy in the next 8 days, though.

  8. Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Joe

    Manchin’s job performance?

    Approve 69%

    Disapprove 23%

    Not sure 8%

    Q4 Would you rather have Joe Manchin as

    Governor or a Senator?

    Governor 48%

    Senator 39%

    Not sure 14%

    Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

    45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

    older than 65, press 4.

    18 to 29 8%

    30 to 45 20%

    46 to 65 48%

    Older than 65 24%

    22% of McCain voters are voting for Manchin, 55% of McCain voters approve of how Joe Manchin’s doing his job. (88% of Obama voters are voting for Manchin and approving of the job he’s doing). 70% of McCain voters prefer Manchin as a Governor, 20% of Obama voters prefer Manchin as a Governor.

    55% of Republicans approve of the job Manchin is doing, 17% are voting for him over Raese.

    And Raese’s poll numbers are beating his Favorability numbers.

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