Predictions: 56, 8, 7.5

HOUSE

D LOSSES 60

TN 6

LA 3

NY 29

AR 2

MS 1

OH 1

TX 17

KS 3

FL 24

OH 15

FL 2

IN 8

TN 8

IL 11

CO 4

PA 3

FL 8

OH 16

VA 2

MD 1

MI 1

VA 5

WI 8

AR 1

WI 7

ND

NH 1

NM 2

SC 5

GA 8

IL 14

AZ 5

AL 2

AZ 1

WA 3

PA 7

PA 8

IN 9

NY 23

SD

CA 11

CO 3

NJ 3

TN 4

MS 4

NY 20

PA 10

WV 1

NC 7

NH 2

NV 3

NY 19

IL 17

NC 8

FL 22

OH 18

NC 2

CT 4

NM 1

CT 5

D WINS 4

LA 2

DE

IL 10

HI 1

SENATE

D LOSSES 8

NEVADA

ILLINOIS

PENNSYLVANIA

COLORADO

WISCONSIN

INDIANA

ARKANSAS

NORTH DAKOTA

GOVERNORS

D LOSSES 12

Wyoming

Oklahoma

Kansas

Iowa

Wisconsin

Michigan

Ohio

Pennsylvania

New Mexico

Tennessee

Illinois

Maine

D GAINS 4

Hawaii

California

Minnesota

Vermont

1/2 R loss — I

Rhode Island

Net loss of 7.5.

16 thoughts on “Predictions: 56, 8, 7.5”

  1. I think you’re right on the money with the Senate and Governorships. Looks like we’ll pickup VT instead of CT. I differ with you on the House though, I see 70 losses and 4 pickups. I hope we’re both wrong and the damage won’t be nearly this bad.  

  2. …That the more unsure House races are down at the bottom of the list. Almost everything from IL-14 to the end of the list, I’m not sure about.

  3. Today:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/

    Photobucket

    The undecided in the close seats averages around 14%.  My guess is that this breaks against the dems, and the prediction that we wind up with is the GOP +2 number: 75.

    But there is increadible volatility in the House numbers, and I could see the Dems actually keeping the House.

    In addition to your 8, I believe the Dems will lose either California or Washington, which will give them 9. It will be a very late night.

    We will the Florida Gov’s race.

  4. I’m about where you are, 54,8,12 but I think we squeak out a win in Florida, though it could go either way it’s a pure tossup. I would count a Chafee win as a full loss for the GOP though. He’s more liberal than the dem or Republican in the race. Sadly your diary looks like a likely scenario.  

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