HOUSE
D LOSSES 60
TN 6
LA 3
NY 29
AR 2
MS 1
OH 1
TX 17
KS 3
FL 24
OH 15
FL 2
IN 8
TN 8
IL 11
CO 4
PA 3
FL 8
OH 16
VA 2
MD 1
MI 1
VA 5
WI 8
AR 1
WI 7
ND
NH 1
NM 2
SC 5
GA 8
IL 14
AZ 5
AL 2
AZ 1
WA 3
PA 7
PA 8
IN 9
NY 23
SD
CA 11
CO 3
NJ 3
TN 4
MS 4
NY 20
PA 10
WV 1
NC 7
NH 2
NV 3
NY 19
IL 17
NC 8
FL 22
OH 18
NC 2
CT 4
NM 1
CT 5
D WINS 4
LA 2
DE
IL 10
HI 1
SENATE
D LOSSES 8
NEVADA
ILLINOIS
PENNSYLVANIA
COLORADO
WISCONSIN
INDIANA
ARKANSAS
NORTH DAKOTA
GOVERNORS
D LOSSES 12
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Kansas
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Tennessee
Illinois
Maine
D GAINS 4
Hawaii
California
Minnesota
Vermont
1/2 R loss — I
Rhode Island
Net loss of 7.5.
I think you’re right on the money with the Senate and Governorships. Looks like we’ll pickup VT instead of CT. I differ with you on the House though, I see 70 losses and 4 pickups. I hope we’re both wrong and the damage won’t be nearly this bad.
…That the more unsure House races are down at the bottom of the list. Almost everything from IL-14 to the end of the list, I’m not sure about.
Today:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
The undecided in the close seats averages around 14%. My guess is that this breaks against the dems, and the prediction that we wind up with is the GOP +2 number: 75.
But there is increadible volatility in the House numbers, and I could see the Dems actually keeping the House.
In addition to your 8, I believe the Dems will lose either California or Washington, which will give them 9. It will be a very late night.
We will the Florida Gov’s race.
I’m about where you are, 54,8,12 but I think we squeak out a win in Florida, though it could go either way it’s a pure tossup. I would count a Chafee win as a full loss for the GOP though. He’s more liberal than the dem or Republican in the race. Sadly your diary looks like a likely scenario.
8 and 7. 6 if you count Chafee as a Dem.