Same drill as my prior efforts this week. Net gain of 3 1/2 for the Republicans. They pick up 10 seats. Democrats pick up 6. Indy Lincoln Chafee picks up RI. Pickups in bold.
AK – Parnell (R) 53, Berkowitz (D) 42 – Bet Berkowitz wishes he had run for Senate.
AL – Bentley (R) 57, Sparks (D) 42 – Thanks for putting Davis out to pasture, Ron.
AR – Beebe (D) 60, Keet (R) 38 – Beebe a red state powerhouse.
AZ – Brewer (R) 52, Goddard (D) 44 – Few less deserving candidates will win this year than Brewer.
CA – Brown (D) 50, Whitman (R) 44 – What a turnaround for Brown.
CO – Hickenlooper (D) 48, Tancredo (C) 41, Maes (R) 8 – Hickenlooper seems to be fending off the Tanc.
CT – Malloy (D) 50, Foley (R) 48 – Furious comeback for Foley comes up just short.
FL – Sink (D) 49, Scott (R) 48 – This one’s in my backyard. Please voters, come to your senses!
GA – Deal (R) 51, Barnes (D) 45 – Amazing that things are so bad that GA voters will elect a guy like Deal.
HI – Abercrombie (D) 53, Aiona (R) 45 – Not quite buying the massive enthusiasm gap.
IA – Branstad (R) 53, Culver (D) 44 – Culver keeps it barely close enough to avert statewide disaster.
ID – Otter (R) 57, Allred (D) 40 – Allred a decent statewide candidate for Idaho.
IL – Quinn (D) 45, Brady (R) 45 – Illinois Dems work magic with turnout.
KS – Brownback (R) 61, Holland (D) 38 – Poor Kansas. Four years (at least) of Brownback.
MA – Patrick (D) 47, Baker (R) 42, Cahill (I) 9 – Patrick will be quite the survival story if he pulls it off.
MD – O’Malley (D) 54, Ehrlich (R) 44 – Nice job by O’Malley taking control of this one.
ME – LePage (R) 40, Cutler (I) 34, Mitchell (D) 24 – Cutler surging here, but hard to imagine a win.
MI – Snyder (R) 57, Bernero (D) 41 – This one was over the day Snyder was nominated.
MN – Dayton (D) 44, Emmer (R) 39, Horner (I) 14 – Dayton has maintained the lead since primary.
NE – Heineman (R) 70, Meister (D) 30 – No contest in this one.
NH – Lynch (D) 53, Stephen (R) 45 – Comfortable win for Lynch.
NM – Martinez (R) 54, Denish (D) 46 – Outgoing administration a huge drag on Denish.
NV – Sandoval (R) 53, Reid (D) 40 – Why did we nominate Reid the Younger again?
NY – Cuomo (D) 61, Paladino (R) 35 – What a piece of work Paladino turned out to be.
OH – Strickland (D) 49, Kasich (R) 48 – Surging Strickland takes it with base turnout.
OK – Fallin (R) 58, Askins (D) 42 – Will be interesting to see if Dems can compete in OK going forward.
OR – Kitzhaber (D) 49, Dudley (R) 46 – Amazing sign of the times that bricklayer Dudley is even in it.
PA – Corbett (R) 52, Onorato (D) 48 – Onorato growing on people, but too little too late.
RI – Chafee (I) 40, Robitaille (R) 31, Caprio (D) 27 – Off-message Caprio goes down hard.
SC – Haley (R) 54, Sheheen (D) 44 – Alvin Greene can’t be helping matters here.
SD – Daugaard (R) 59, Heidepriem (D) 41 – Heidepriem actually not a bad candidate.
TN – Haslam (R) 61, McWherter (D) 37 – Haslam’s strong candidacy may sink Dems throughout state.
TX – Perry (R) 53, White (D) 45 – Wrong year for White to try to pull this off.
UT – Herbert (R) 63, Corroon (D) 34 – Republicans still able to get by in Utah.
VT – Shumlin (D) 51, Dubie (R) 45 – Dubie gets smoked, as someone said yesterday.
WI – Walker (R) 54, Barrett (D) 45 – Outgoing administration a huge drag on Barrett.
WY – Mead (R) 63, Peterson (D) 35 – Wonder how Freudenthal would have done here.
Hey spiderdem
Could you please contact me at danny.yadron@wsj.com
Thanks much.