After the last effort finding polls about many downballot races I think I have enough information for give a opinion about the results of the elections. Still I will find today all the results what can change a little my numbers and my point, and I will update this diary until the elections.
This is my point and these are my numbers about the offices in play:
I include the names of all the democratic candidates whit advantage in my numbers, and only the names of the democratic incumbents for the races with negative prospect.
For every race, minus sign mean advantage for the republican, plus sign mean advantage for the democrat.
SENATE
Republican gains = 5
ND-Sen (- 45.00%)
IN-Sen (- 18.25%)
AR-Sen (- 16.00%) B Lincoln
WI-Sen (- 05.50%) R Feingold
PA-Sen (- 03.25%)Democratic gains = 0
—Other interesting races in single digits
KY-Sen (- 08.75%)
MO-Sen (- 07.25%)
AK-Sen (- 04.75%)
CO-Sen (+ 00.75%) M Bennet
NV-Sen (+ 01.00%) H Reid
IL-Sen (+ 02.50%) A Giannoulias
WV-Sen (+ 03.50%) J Manchin
WA-Sen (+ 04.00%) P Murray
CA-Sen (+ 08.50%) B Boxer
CT-Sen (+ 09.00%) R BlumenthalThe percentage is for McAdams under the first republican. My numbers gives Murkowsky leading still, Miller – 00.75% and McAdams – 4.75%.
GOVERNOR
Republican gains = 13
WY-Gov (- 32.33%)
KS-Gov (- 31.00%)
TN-Gov (- 25.75%)
MI-Gov (- 15.75%)
OK-Gov (- 14.75%)
IA-Gov (- 11.25%) C Culver
ME-Gov (- 09.25%)
NM-Gov (- 07.75%)
PA-Gov (- 07.25%)
WI-Gov (- 06.00%)
IL-Gov (- 04.75%) P Quinn
OH-Gov (- 03.00%) T Strickland
FL-Gov (- 00.25%) (republican gain from Independents)“Democratic” gains = 5 + 1
CT-Gov (= 00.00%) D Malloy
VT-Gov (+ 02.33%) P Shumlin
HI-Gov (+ 04.25%) N Abercrombie
MN-Gov (+ 05.00%) M Dayton
CA-Gov (+ 06.75%) J Brown
RI-Gov (+ 08.50%) L Chafee (Ind) (over Robitaille)Other interesting races in single digits
AZ-Gov (- 09.25%)
GA-Gov (- 08.00%)
SC-Gov (- 07.50%)
OR-Gov (+ 02.75%) J Kitzhaber
CO-Gov (+ 05.00%) J Hickenlooper
MA-Gov (+ 06.25%) D Patrick
HOUSE
Republican gains = 45
TN-06 (<- 10.00%) (double digits for the republican)
KS-03 (<- 10.00%)
LA-03 (<- 10.00%)
IN-08 (- 18.50%)
FL-02 (- 16.50%) A Boyd
NY-29 (- 15.50%)
AR-02 (- 14.25%)
TN-08 (- 11.50%)
GA-08 (- 10.75%) J Marshall
IL-11 (- 10.75%) D Halvorson
TX-17 (- 10.25%) C Edwards
PA-03 (- 10.25%) K Dahlkemper
NH-01 (- 10.00%) C Shea-Porter
OH-16 (- 09.67%) J Boccieri
OH-01 (- 09.00%) S Driehaus
WI-08 (- 08.00%) S Kagen
OH-15 (- 07.75%) M Kilroy
WA-03 (- 07.50%)
WI-07 (- 07.50%)
PA-07 (- 07.25%)
FL-24 (- 06.67%) S Kosmas
VA-02 (- 06.25%) G Nye
MI-01 (- 06.00%)
CO-04 (- 04.67%) B Markey
MS-01 (- 04.50%) T Childers
MD-01 (- 04.50%) F Kratovil
VA-05 (- 04.50%) T Perriello
CO-03 (- 04.50%) J Salazar
NM-02 (- 04.25%) H Teague
FL-08 (- 04.25%) A Grayson
AR-01 (- 04.00%)
TX-27 (- 04.00%) S Ortiz
TX-23 (- 03.33%) C Rodriguez
PA-10 (- 02.75%) C Carney
IL-17 (- 02.25%) P Hare
NV-03 (- 02.00%) C Titus
NY-23 (- 01.75%) W Owens
NY-20 (- 01.50%) S Murphy
NJ-03 (- 01.00%) J Adler
VA-11 (- 01.00%) G Connolly
AZ-01 (- 00.75%) A Kirkpatrick
IL-14 (- 00.50%) W Foster
SC-05 (- 00.25%) J Spratt
PA-08 (- 00.25%) P Murphy
MI-07 (= 00.00%) M SchauerDemocratic gains = 4
FL-25 (+ 01.25%) J Garcia
IL-10 (+ 03.50%) D Seals
DE-AL (+ 12.00%) J Carney
LA-02 (+ 13.75%) C RichmondOther interesting races in low single digits
AZ-03 (- 02.00%)
HI-01 (- 01.25%)
FL-12 (- 00.50%)
NY-19 (+ 00.25%) J Hall
OH-06 (+ 00.33%) C Wilson
MA-10 (+ 00.50%) W Keating
MI-09 (+ 00.67%) G Peeters
ND-AL (+ 01.00%) E Pomeroy
SD-AL (+ 01.00%) S Herseth-Sandlin
NC-02 (+ 01.00%) R Etheridge
CA-11 (+ 01.00%) G McNerney
OR-05 (+ 01.00%) K Schrader
CT-04 (+ 01.00%) J Himes
AZ-05 (+ 01.25%)
PA-12 (+ 01.25%) M Critz
PA-11 (+ 01.25%) P Kanjorski
CA-20 (+ 01.33%) J Costa
TN-04 (+ 02.50%) L Davis
IL-08 (+ 02.50%) M Bean
NH-02 (+ 02.50%) A Kuster
WA-02 (+ 02.50%) R Larsen
FL-22 (+ 03.00%) R Klein
CO-07 (+ 03.00%) E Perlmutter
GA-02 (+ 03.25%) S Bishop
MS-04 (+ 03.33%) G Taylor
IN-09 (+ 03.33%) B Hill
OH-13 (+ 03.50%) B Sutton
OH-18 (+ 04.00%) Z Space
AZ-08 (+ 04.00%) G Giffords
NM-01 (+ 04.25%) M Heinrich
WV-01 (+ 04.50%) M Oliverio
MO-04 (+ 05.00%) I Skelton
My numbers tell NC-07, AL-02 and NC-08 are in high single digits.They are 25 races between 0 and -5 and 31 between 0 and +5. The majority in the House is still in play. It is time of fight hard until the last day.
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
Republican gains = 10
LA-LG (<- 10.00%)
KS-LG (- 31.00%)
MI-LG (- 15.75%)
OK-LG (- 12.00%)
IA-LG (- 11.25%) P Judge
NM-LG (- 07.75%)
WI-LG (- 06.00%)
IL-LG (- 04.75%)
OH-LG (- 03.00%)
AR-LG (- 02.33%)Democratic gains = 4
CT-LG (= 00.00%) N Wyman
HI-LG (+ 04.25%) B Schatz
MN-LG (+ 05.00%) Y Prettner Solon
CA-LG (+ 06.50%) G NewsomOther interesting races in single digits
PA-LG (- 07.25%)
VT-LG (- 05.00%)
SC-LG (- 04.00%)
FL-LG (- 00.25%)
MA-LG (+ 06.25%) T Murray
AL-LG (+ 06.33%) J Folsom
STATEWIDE OFFICES
This is the code for some statewide offices included in this box (quote):
AG=Attorney General
SS=Secretary of State
ST=State Treasurer
SC=State Comptroller
SA=State Auditor
IC=Insurance Commissioner
CL=Commissioner of LaborRepublican gains = 25
AL-CAI (<- 10.00%) (Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries)
AR-CSL (- 24.00%) (Commissioner of State Lands)
KS-SS (- 22.67%) C Biggs
OK-AG (- 20.00%)
IL-SC (- 18.00%)
KS-ST (- 16.00%) D McKinney
GA-CA (- 16.00%)
OK-ST (- 14.00%)
KS-AG (- 12.33%) S Six
GA-AG (- 11.67%)
OK-CL (- 11.00%) L Fields
FL-CFO (- 09.00%) (Chief Financial Officer)
AZ-AG (- 08.75%)
NM-SS (- 08.00%) M Herrera
OK-SA (- 06.00%) S Burrage
OK-IC (- 06.00%) K Holland
CO-ST (- 06.00%) C Kennedy
IL-ST (- 05.67%)
CO-SS (- 04.33%) B Buescher
OH-AG (- 04.25%) R Cordray
AR-SS (- 04.00%)
OK-SPI (- 03.00%) (Superintendent of Public Instruction)
MO-SA (- 03.00%) S Montee
OH-ST (- 00.25%) K Boyce
GA-CL (= 00.00%)Democratic gains = 3
VT-SA (= 00.00%) D Hoffer
CA-IC (+ 17.00%) D Jones
NM-CPL (>+ 10.00%) (Commissioner of Public Lands) R PowellOther interesting races in low single digits
OH-SA (- 02.50%)
IA-SS (+ 01.00%) M Mauro
CA-AG (+ 01.50%) K Harris
NV-SC (+ 01.75%) K Marshall
OH-SS (+ 02.00%) M O’Shaughnessy
DE-ST (+ 02.00%) C Flowers
SC-SE (+ 03.00%) (Superintendent of Education) F Holleman
MA-SA (+ 04.25%) S Bump