Senate, Governor, House, Lieutenant Governor and Statewide Offices

After the last effort finding polls about many downballot races I think I have enough information for give a opinion about the results of the elections. Still I will find today all the results what can change a little my numbers and my point, and I will update this diary until the elections.

This is my point and these are my numbers about the offices in play:

I include the names of all the democratic candidates whit advantage in my numbers, and only the names of the democratic incumbents for the races with negative prospect.

For every race, minus sign mean advantage for the republican, plus sign mean advantage for the democrat.

SENATE

Republican gains = 5

ND-Sen (- 45.00%)

IN-Sen (- 18.25%)

AR-Sen (- 16.00%) B Lincoln

WI-Sen (- 05.50%) R Feingold

PA-Sen (- 03.25%)

Democratic gains = 0

Other interesting races in single digits

KY-Sen (- 08.75%)

MO-Sen (- 07.25%)

AK-Sen (- 04.75%)

CO-Sen (+ 00.75%) M Bennet

NV-Sen (+ 01.00%) H Reid

IL-Sen (+ 02.50%) A Giannoulias

WV-Sen (+ 03.50%) J Manchin

WA-Sen (+ 04.00%) P Murray

CA-Sen (+ 08.50%) B Boxer

CT-Sen (+ 09.00%) R Blumenthal

The percentage is for McAdams under the first republican. My numbers gives Murkowsky leading still, Miller – 00.75% and McAdams – 4.75%.

GOVERNOR

Republican gains = 13

WY-Gov (- 32.33%)

KS-Gov (- 31.00%)

TN-Gov (- 25.75%)

MI-Gov (- 15.75%)

OK-Gov (- 14.75%)

IA-Gov (- 11.25%) C Culver

ME-Gov (- 09.25%)

NM-Gov (- 07.75%)

PA-Gov (- 07.25%)

WI-Gov (- 06.00%)

IL-Gov (- 04.75%) P Quinn

OH-Gov (- 03.00%) T Strickland

FL-Gov (- 00.25%) (republican gain from Independents)

“Democratic” gains = 5 + 1

CT-Gov (= 00.00%) D Malloy

VT-Gov (+ 02.33%) P Shumlin

HI-Gov (+ 04.25%) N Abercrombie

MN-Gov (+ 05.00%) M Dayton

CA-Gov (+ 06.75%) J Brown

RI-Gov (+ 08.50%) L Chafee (Ind) (over Robitaille)

Other interesting races in single digits

AZ-Gov (- 09.25%)

GA-Gov (- 08.00%)

SC-Gov (- 07.50%)

OR-Gov (+ 02.75%) J Kitzhaber

CO-Gov (+ 05.00%) J Hickenlooper

MA-Gov (+ 06.25%) D Patrick

HOUSE

Republican gains = 45

TN-06 (<- 10.00%) (double digits for the republican)

KS-03 (<- 10.00%)

LA-03 (<- 10.00%)

IN-08 (- 18.50%)

FL-02 (- 16.50%) A Boyd

NY-29 (- 15.50%)

AR-02 (- 14.25%)

TN-08 (- 11.50%)

GA-08 (- 10.75%) J Marshall

IL-11 (- 10.75%) D Halvorson

TX-17 (- 10.25%) C Edwards

PA-03 (- 10.25%) K Dahlkemper

NH-01 (- 10.00%) C Shea-Porter

OH-16 (- 09.67%) J Boccieri

OH-01 (- 09.00%) S Driehaus

WI-08 (- 08.00%) S Kagen

OH-15 (- 07.75%) M Kilroy

WA-03 (- 07.50%)

WI-07 (- 07.50%)

PA-07 (- 07.25%)

FL-24 (- 06.67%) S Kosmas

VA-02 (- 06.25%) G Nye

MI-01 (- 06.00%)

CO-04 (- 04.67%) B Markey

MS-01 (- 04.50%) T Childers

MD-01 (- 04.50%) F Kratovil

VA-05 (- 04.50%) T Perriello

CO-03 (- 04.50%) J Salazar

NM-02 (- 04.25%) H Teague

FL-08 (- 04.25%) A Grayson

AR-01 (- 04.00%)

TX-27 (- 04.00%) S Ortiz

TX-23 (- 03.33%) C Rodriguez

PA-10 (- 02.75%) C Carney

IL-17 (- 02.25%) P Hare

NV-03 (- 02.00%) C Titus

NY-23 (- 01.75%) W Owens

NY-20 (- 01.50%) S Murphy

NJ-03 (- 01.00%) J Adler

VA-11 (- 01.00%) G Connolly

AZ-01 (- 00.75%) A Kirkpatrick

IL-14 (- 00.50%) W Foster

SC-05 (- 00.25%) J Spratt

PA-08 (- 00.25%) P Murphy

MI-07 (= 00.00%) M Schauer

Democratic gains = 4

FL-25 (+ 01.25%) J Garcia

IL-10 (+ 03.50%) D Seals

DE-AL (+ 12.00%) J Carney

LA-02 (+ 13.75%) C Richmond

Other interesting races in low single digits

AZ-03 (- 02.00%)

HI-01 (- 01.25%)

FL-12 (- 00.50%)

NY-19 (+ 00.25%) J Hall

OH-06 (+ 00.33%) C Wilson

MA-10 (+ 00.50%) W Keating

MI-09 (+ 00.67%) G Peeters

ND-AL (+ 01.00%) E Pomeroy

SD-AL (+ 01.00%) S Herseth-Sandlin

NC-02 (+ 01.00%) R Etheridge

CA-11 (+ 01.00%) G McNerney

OR-05 (+ 01.00%) K Schrader

CT-04 (+ 01.00%) J Himes

AZ-05 (+ 01.25%)

PA-12 (+ 01.25%) M Critz

PA-11 (+ 01.25%) P Kanjorski

CA-20 (+ 01.33%) J Costa

TN-04 (+ 02.50%) L Davis

IL-08 (+ 02.50%) M Bean

NH-02 (+ 02.50%) A Kuster

WA-02 (+ 02.50%) R Larsen

FL-22 (+ 03.00%) R Klein

CO-07 (+ 03.00%) E Perlmutter

GA-02 (+ 03.25%) S Bishop

MS-04 (+ 03.33%) G Taylor

IN-09 (+ 03.33%) B Hill

OH-13 (+ 03.50%) B Sutton

OH-18 (+ 04.00%) Z Space

AZ-08 (+ 04.00%) G Giffords

NM-01 (+ 04.25%) M Heinrich

WV-01 (+ 04.50%) M Oliverio

MO-04 (+ 05.00%) I Skelton

My numbers tell NC-07, AL-02 and NC-08 are in high single digits.

They are 25 races between 0 and -5 and 31 between 0 and +5. The majority in the House is still in play. It is time of fight hard until the last day.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

Republican gains = 10

LA-LG (<- 10.00%)

KS-LG (- 31.00%)

MI-LG (- 15.75%)

OK-LG (- 12.00%)

IA-LG (- 11.25%) P Judge

NM-LG (- 07.75%)

WI-LG (- 06.00%)

IL-LG (- 04.75%)

OH-LG (- 03.00%)

AR-LG (- 02.33%)

Democratic gains = 4

CT-LG (= 00.00%) N Wyman

HI-LG (+ 04.25%) B Schatz

MN-LG (+ 05.00%) Y Prettner Solon

CA-LG (+ 06.50%) G Newsom

Other interesting races in single digits

PA-LG (- 07.25%)

VT-LG (- 05.00%)

SC-LG (- 04.00%)

FL-LG (- 00.25%)

MA-LG (+ 06.25%) T Murray

AL-LG (+ 06.33%) J Folsom

STATEWIDE OFFICES

This is the code for some statewide offices included in this box (quote):

AG=Attorney General

SS=Secretary of State

ST=State Treasurer

SC=State Comptroller

SA=State Auditor

IC=Insurance Commissioner

CL=Commissioner of Labor

Republican gains = 25

AL-CAI (<- 10.00%) (Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries)

AR-CSL (- 24.00%) (Commissioner of State Lands)

KS-SS (- 22.67%) C Biggs

OK-AG (- 20.00%)

IL-SC (- 18.00%)

KS-ST (- 16.00%) D McKinney

GA-CA (- 16.00%)

OK-ST (- 14.00%)

KS-AG (- 12.33%) S Six

GA-AG (- 11.67%)

OK-CL (- 11.00%) L Fields

FL-CFO (- 09.00%) (Chief Financial Officer)

AZ-AG (- 08.75%)

NM-SS (- 08.00%) M Herrera

OK-SA (- 06.00%) S Burrage

OK-IC (- 06.00%) K Holland

CO-ST (- 06.00%) C Kennedy

IL-ST (- 05.67%)

CO-SS (- 04.33%) B Buescher

OH-AG (- 04.25%) R Cordray

AR-SS (- 04.00%)

OK-SPI (- 03.00%) (Superintendent of Public Instruction)

MO-SA (- 03.00%) S Montee

OH-ST (- 00.25%) K Boyce

GA-CL (= 00.00%)

Democratic gains = 3

VT-SA (= 00.00%) D Hoffer

CA-IC (+ 17.00%) D Jones

NM-CPL (>+ 10.00%) (Commissioner of Public Lands) R Powell

Other interesting races in low single digits

OH-SA (- 02.50%)

IA-SS (+ 01.00%) M Mauro

CA-AG (+ 01.50%) K Harris

NV-SC (+ 01.75%) K Marshall

OH-SS (+ 02.00%) M O’Shaughnessy

DE-ST (+ 02.00%) C Flowers

SC-SE (+ 03.00%) (Superintendent of Education) F Holleman

MA-SA (+ 04.25%) S Bump