Monday Poll Dump

332 thoughts on “Monday Poll Dump”

1. …system overload to my brain

2. Go Linda McMahon!

3. I’m still surprised it’s that close. I wonder if it will be a 1-2% victory either way.

4. how few House Polls there are.  

   In the 77 House Polls since October 20th the average swing from 2008 is 18.6%, which would imply a Generic Ballot of GOP +8.
   

5. Possible casualty of Foley surge?  National environment? Both?

   Via ctcapitolreport.  

6. you so much for writing all of those out. Seriously Crisitunity you rock.  

8. Meg Whitman suddenly morphed into a Democrat.

9. AK-SEN: $150K
   
   CO-SEN: $420K
   
   PA-SEN: $610K
   
   WA-SEN: $270K

   Nice to see the AK play is serious.  Still going after PA, no panic in WA.

10. http://www.rollcall.com/news/5…

11. Consider this a worst case scenario for the Democrats – he picks the Republicans to gain 70 seats. A couple of surprises, though: he sees Hulburd as winning AZ-3 (while predicing Grijalva to go down), and also sees Pat Miles scoring a big upset against Justin Amash in MI-3, something that I’ve seen a couple of commentators on this site suggest could happen, but not Cook, Rothenberg or Sabato.

    Some of them are out and out ridiculous, of course – is anyone besides Geraghty still picking Ganley to win in Ohio? So take it for what it’s worth.  

12. You can’t win if you don’t play! You do not have to be from Iowa to enter–just interested in Iowa politics.

13. This is an interesting piece. Benjy Sarlin at the Daily Beast digs up old ’94 predictions, and notes that they were uniformly settled on around a 25-seat gain for the GOP in the House and 3-5 in the Senate.

    Link: http://www.thedailybeast.com/b…

    Here are excerpts from a few predictions by the major election analysts that were published in Campaigns & Elections two weeks before the 1994 midterms:

    Charles Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report:

    “The Democrats will lose 20-25 in the House; four to five in the Senate. I’m seeing softening for Democrats in key Senate races, such as Virginia. Anti -incumbency, despondency among Democratic voters and a galvanization of GOP voters are the overarching trends. Democrats are disillusioned with Clinton; Republicans hate him and will turn out in droves. The GOP vote is coming home and it’s hardening earlier than usual.”

    Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Report, a political newsletter:

    “The Democrats will lose 24-26 seats in the House; three to five in the Senate. They’re vulnerable in the South and in traditionally Republican districts in the North that they’ve been able to hold in the past by splitting the Republicans. However, President Clinton’s unpopularity is uniting the GOP. This isn’t a particularly ideological election, though. It’s just insiders versus outsiders, and Democrats are the insiders right now. Voters remain skeptical about the role of government, another negative for Democrats. Clinton has tried to alter this widespread mistrust of governmental activism, but he hasn’t succeeded.”

    Larry Sabato, professor of government at the University of Virginia:

    “My slogan has always been: ‘He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass.’ Nevertheless, it looks like Democrats will be lucky to lose only 24-25 seats in the House and four in the Senate. Much of it hinges on President Clinton’s popularity. Many of these elections are turning into a referendum on Bill Clinton, as is usually the case with mid-term elections and the President in power. About a half dozen Senate races will be decided with less than two percent of the vote. So last-minute trends will matter.

    Clinton could bounce back, as he’s done in the past, and that could reduce Democratic losses. I don’t think his approval rating will sink any lower than about 35 percent; that’s his floor and he’s close to it now. If anything, I think his popularity might rise a little bit between now and election day. When all is said and done, there’s only one thing we know for sure: the Democrats will lose a lot of seats in both Houses.”

    The other analysts’ predictions cited in the piece were 25 House seats (Jack Germond), 20-25 seats (Gloria Borger), 25 seats (Cokie Roberts), and 25 seats (William Schneider). Notice a pattern? Of course that’s not what happened — instead Republicans ended up shocking the world with a 54-seat gain and their first House majority in 40 years.

    Obviously, this cuts both ways: we could wind up with significantly WORSE results than the 55 losses or so being forecast. Or we could do much better.  

14. I’m liking the trends for the Ohio gubernatorial race, and the Illinois Senate race.  The rest are pretty bad.

15. Rossi leads by 51-47 among those who have already mailed their ballots back in. Many of the people who have not yet may never mail them back.  

16. Murkowski releases internal polls showing her at 36%, Miller at 34% and McAdams at 22%, adjust as usual, and you hear her say, Miller’s ahead, I’m still in it.

17. Actor Morgan Freeman is denying that he provided the narration for a Republican candidate’s political ad, saying that the campaign lied by claiming that he did.

    “These people are lying,” said Freeman in a statement sent to The Huffington Post. “I have never recorded any campaign ads for B.J. Lawson and I do not support his candidacy. And, no one who represents me ever has ever authorized the use of my name, voice or any other likeness in support of Mr. Lawson or his candidacy.”

    Lawson is running against Democratic incumbent Rep. David Price in North Carolina’s fourth congressional district. The ad in question is titled, “What is David Price Afraid Of?”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

18. until polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

19. As election day has neared, black voters have been turning out solidly.  As  of today’s numbers, a black voter is 92.5% as likely to have voted as a white voter; middle of last week it was 75%.  If similar numbers hold up regionally it will be a boon to Dem chances.

    Dem early vote has also held strong in NC.  They have a 10% edge over GOP, I think PPP predicted the final tally would be only 6%.

20. After closing the gap over the summer and early fall, Gary McDowell of Michigan’s 1st is polling over his Republican opponent for the first time in a new Mitchell Poll:

    http://detnews.com/article/201…

    Gary McDowell (D): 48%
    
    Dan Benishek: 45%

    It’s looking like Dems may hold all of their seats here in Michigan.

21. http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
    
    I was entertained.  

22. going to election night parties? I have come to the decision to be anti social and watch results at home instead of going to any. I had a number I could have attended but I want to be near CNN and both of my computers. I’ll have my home computer and laptop set up and I’ll be switching from CNN to MSNBC and I’ll even have my radio on to a local station to get local returns. I may swing by the local D headquarters for a couple of minutes just to say hi to some friends and family. Gonna be a fun night. How late to you guys plan on staying up till? I went to bed early last election. On most nights I usually stay up until 12-1 so 3 would be easy enough and I might even pull an all nighter, I don’t know if I can at my age but I’ll might try. What’s the worst I can do to someone? They can always get dentures if I screw up. That’s a joke by the way. Us dental professionals try to be funny sometimes, humor us. Also do you guys update results on twitter and F book if (more like when from what I have heard) the site crashes.  

23. It is about St. Louis County and it’s notoriously late reporting of election results. The county contains the city of Duluth and the majority of the Iron Range and is the 2nd largest in the county in the country and has as many precincts as Ramsey County which contains St. Paul and  some suburbs.  The city of Duluth reports all its precincts in one big chunk and the rural counties do a lot of the vote counting by hand.

    This is one good thing to remember on election night as this county helped Dayton late into the night in the primary and it consistently gives DFLers 65%.  Kerry, Hatch (Gov 2006), and Obama all got 65% which is extremely consistent considering both the statewide shifts and the candidate appeals.

    Even with Horner getting something like 15%, Dayton can certainly maintain this 65% considering his Lt Gov candidate is a state senator from Duluth, the DFL base turning out since it’s been 20 years, and the top issue for Greater Minnesota is local government aid cuts and Emmer will slash the shit out of them while Dayton will re-instore every penny.

24. What will we do?  

25. Around what time do they come out?  

26. Winning the 2008 Presidential election is probably the reason Democrats will probably lose 60 something seats this year.  It would have been smarter for Democrats just to let McCain win in 2008 and take the blame for the unfixable economic crisis and then work to gain a veto proof majority in 2010.  

    Now we are basically stuck in vicious cycle of defeat at the Congressional level.  

27. heard an interesting radio ad today. It was by the American service workers I think. It literally used the word tea bagger. It was SUPERB. It started out with a speech by a Sarah Palin impersonator who was saying something like “let’s take our government back”. Then it said something like “Things like that are catchy but do you really want bumper sticker solutions for the serious problems we face?”. It listed accomplishments that had been done and the extreme points of the tea party and it was very good and positive despite going negative. It was the best ad I heard all cycle. I could not find it. Anyone who can post it gets some brownie points from me.  

28. Not so good… So, what does Charlie cook know that Rothie doesn’t?  Cook confirmed today that he still thinks Murray will win.

29. OK, it’s just one of two unlikely outside scenarios, but I say we embrace it – for tonight anyway. 🙂

    A scenario [of Democrats holding the House] is possible tomorrow – not particularly likely, but possible, just as a 77-seat Republican gain is possible. It’s probably a somewhat greater possibility than people realize. Here are five reasons Democrats could outperform their polls and beat consensus expectations.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…

    His look at the Gallup methodology is fascinating. Definitely worth a read.

30. is disgusting. Someone put up a sign reading “Vote American Vote Pompeo”. Pompeo’s opponent is Indian American, though born in Cleveland Ohio.
    
    http://blogs.pitch.com/plog/20…

31. I hope there’s a game 6…. it’ll be nice to have something to look forward to.

    (and if a miracle happens, it would also be an easy transition back to regular life)

32. The Nevada SOS finally has posted the final Early Voting totals by Party.

    http://nvsos.gov/index.aspx?pa…

    Dems 162,801 (42.87%)
    
    Reps 156,624 (41.24%)
    
    Other 60,691 (15.98%)

    They also have the total mail in votes through last Friday but not broken by party.

    http://nvsos.gov/index.aspx?pa…

    The Las Vegas Review Journal does have the 2 party breakdown for Clark, Washoe, Douglas counties plus Carson City (about 87% of the Absentees returned).

    Dems 21,506 (51.19%)
    
    Reps 20,505 (48.81%)

    The remaining absentees are from very Republican parts of the state so at best the Dems are probably are tied in total absentee voting. That’s not really bad news though because normally Republicans dominate mail in voting in Nevada.

    Total turnout through last Friday was 433,000 voters, 38.66% of registered voters. Total turnout is expected between 60-65% registered voters so almost 2/3rds of the total vote has already been cast.

    What does it mean? Well I really don’t know other than things look like they will be real real close.

33. “Look for me. I’m the only Weiner on the ballot. Uh, nevermind. Just vote. Thanks!”

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…

34. SoS expects 66% turnout, highest since 1970 for a midterm.

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.c…

    I have to imagine that’s good for us, right?

    If you can’t tell already, I really don’t like Dino Rossi…

35. scroll saying only 8% of registered young voters are expected to vote. Does that seem right?

    Also, the Hispanic turnout is up in early voting. Via Google::

    We worked hard and made a major effort to reach out to Latinos. We contacted four times more Latino voters that we did in 2006,” President Barack Obama’s senior political adviser David Axelrod told Hispanic media in a telephone interview.

    He said Latinos had cast 660,000 votes so far in early ballots ahead of Tuesday’s mid-term elections — 13 percent more than the early voting total for the 2006 mid-terms — a number he called “very encouraging.”

    “If early vote is a trend you’re going to see a good outcome in Nevada, California, Colorado,” western states home to particularly tight and hard-fought contests, including in Nevada between Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sharron Angle, a Republican.

36. just clinched the World Series! The last time they won one was in 1954 when they were in New York. At least I’ll feel happy because tomorrow night I’ll feel sad.

37. is on The Last Word. This is what were moving to in the house. From Nancy Pelosi to Marsha Marsha Marsha.  

38. Paladino gets shitfaced on Halloween. Can’t blame him, seeing how Cuomo’s going to blow him back to the stone age on Tuesday.

    http://wnymedia.net/smith/2010…

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