States to Watch for Redistricting Control

In many states, redistricting control is pre-determined or essentially a foregone conclusion.  I count 37 states in that category.

Note: In the lists below, the number in parentheses next to each state is the number of districts predicted for 2012 by Election Data Services:

http://www.electiondataservice…

Single District States:

Alaska (1)

Delaware (1)

Montana (1)

North Dakota (1)

South Dakota (1)

Vermont (1)

Wyoming (1)

Existing Commissions:

Arizona (9)

Hawaii (2)

Idaho (2)

New Jersey (12)

Washington (10)

(note: Iowa is discussed below)

New Commission:

California (53) – Prop. 20 will pass

Democratic control:

Arkansas (4) – Beebe will win easily

Maryland (8) – O’Malley has double-digit lead

Massachusetts (9) – Every poll has Patrick ahead by a small but consistent margin

West Virginia (3) – State Senate President Tomblin (D) would become acting Governor if Manchin wins his Senate race

Split control:

Kentucky (6) – State Senate will stay Republican

Louisiana (6) – No legislative elections this year

Maine (2) – Governor will be R or I, but Dems will keep control of the State House (currently 95D-55R)

Mississippi (4) – No legislative elections this year

Missouri (9) Nixon with Republican legislature

Nevada (3) – Sandoval with Democratic Assembly and probably a Democratic State Senate (currently 12D-9R) as well

New Hampshire (2) – Lynch with Republican legislature

New Mexico (3) – Martinez with Democratic legislature

Rhode Island (2) – Chafee with Democratic legislature

Virginia (11) – Luckily, no state legislative elections this year so Dems will keep their 22-18 State Senate majority

Republican control:

Georgia (14) – Barnes started out strong but has faded

Indiana (9) – R’s already have control because of how the committe members are selected, but will also win the State House

Kansas (4) – Kansas is not going to get well any time soon

Nebraska (3) – non-partisan legislature in name only; it is controlled by Republicans

Oklahoma (5) – Gov race is a blowout

Pennsylvania (18) – D’s only have 104-99 control of State House and that will not hold up

South Carolina (7) – Shaheen was our only shot

Tennessee (9) – Total wipeout at all levels

Texas (36) – The best to hope for is Dems to still have some influence in the State House based on their coalition with the Speaker

Utah (4) – About as Safe R as you can get

That leaves 13 states that are up for grabs tomorrow.  Here is how I see those playing out:

Democratic control:

Minnesota (8) – Narrow Dayton win (don’t worry Mark) and D’s hold the legislature where they have plenty of room to absorb any losses that may occur

Oregon (5) – Kitzhaber appears to be slightly ahead and Dems will narrowly keep their majority in the State Senate (currently 18D-12R) and House (36D-24R)

Split control:

Colorado (7) – Hickenlooper wins but Republicans take at least one legislative chamber (this will be very close and could end up a Dem control state)

Connecticut (5) – It’s all up to the Governor’s race and Foley seems to have the momentum.  D control of the legislature is not in doubt.

Florida (27) – Sink will squeak by in a photo finish.  Also, Amendment 6 (non-partisan guidelines for drawing Congressional maps) will just get the 60% necessary to pass.  This is the most important state to watch tomorrow, because if Sink and Amendment 6 both fail, Republicans will have carte blanche

Illinois (18) – Likely R Gov since Quinn cannot gain any traction but also very likely D hold of State Senate and House

Iowa (4) – In addition to winning the Governor’s race, R’s have a decent shot at the State House (now 56D-44R) and a very outside shot at the State Senate (now 32D-18R).  Iowa has a Commission but the legislature must approve the maps.

Michigan (14) – Dems hold on, barely in the State House (currently 65D-43R). Hopefully, Snyder’s coattails are not too much to overcome

New York (27) – Dems narrowly lose control of the State Senate (currently 32D-30R) since they would have to run the table on all the close races

North Carolina (13) – Both chambers are equally in danger of flipping to the Republicans so let’s split the difference and say one flips and the other doesn’t.  The Gov cannot veto the maps, so legislative control is the whole ballgame

Republican control:

Alabama (7) – The Dems best chance to hold is in the State House (60D-45R), but special elections over the past year have shown that Alabama had already been trending heavily Republican and that trend will continue

Ohio (16) – Strickland could pull it out, but right now Kasich is a very narrow favorite.  The State House (53D-46R) contains too many R targets for the Dems to fight off

Wisconsin (8) – Dems would go from controlling all 3 pillars to 0.  There is still a chance, though, that they could hold onto either the State Senate (18D-15R) or House (52D-46R)

So, adding everything up, here is what I come up with:

Commissions: 88 districts

Single district states: 7 districts

Democratic control: 37 districts

Split control: 163 districts

Republican control: 140 districts

Things could have been much better with just California and New York moving to the Dem side (a total of 80 districts), but that appears not to be in the cards.

For more details, a useful reference is the Governing.com article (released today) rating the legislative races, chamber by chamber.:

http://www.governing.com/blogs…