Competitive 2012 senate races as of 11/4/10

2 years is an eternity in politics but Democrats put on the best rose tinted glasses you have, Republicans bring out the fireworks…. Anyway grab a cup of Hot Coco, sit back and start reading.

Competitive Democratic senate races

Ben Nelson (D-NE): Lean Republican (+1 GOP)

Ben Nelson is dead. That’s it. There is no way Democrats will win this race, short of the GOP nominee completely imploding because of a personal scandal a few weeks before the election. His grandstanding during the health care debate has mortally wounded him and damaged his standing in the state.

Even if Obama is doing relatively well enough in 2012 that he puts Lee Terry’s district into play on the presidential level (Nebraska is one of only two states, Maine the other one, that awards some of its electoral votes to whoever wins a specific congressional district) it will not be enough to save Ben Nelson. Obama only has to win Lee Terry’s district to claim some sort of a victory in Nebraska, Nelson has to win the entire state to claim victory. Big difference.

The only interesting action going on this race will be on the GOP side to see who wins the right to cruise into the senate in January of 2013.

Update: That was fast, Nebraska’s GOP attorney general Jon Bruning is planning to run against Ben Nelson. He’s not going to be the last, this is going to be a fun primary.

Claire McCaskill (D-MO): Tossup/Tilt Republican (+1 GOP)

2010 was a massacre for Democrats in Missouri. Robin Carnahan was smoked big time by Roy Blunt, her brother barely won reelection to the house in a race no one was watching, Congressman Emanuel Cleaver won reelection by a shocking 9 points and turnout sunk to abysmal levels in Democratic St. Louis and Kansas City.

On top of that while Obama was cleaning McCain’s clock, swing state wise, he barely lost the state, even though Obama left no stone unturned looking for votes in St. Louis and Kansas City suggesting that the rural areas are just too tough for someone named Obama to win. (Bill or Hillary Clinton who have more of a pull on rural voters could still win the state.)

Enter Claire McCaskill who already had a huge bulls eye painted on her back. McCaskill beat incumbent GOP senator Jim Talent (who happened to defeat another member of the Carnahan family 4 years earlier) by a razor thin margin in 2006, which was a good year for Democrats across the board.

McCaskill has a huge hill to climb if she wants to win reelection. Ideologically McCaskill isn’t that out of sync with Missouri but she’ll be facing an electorate that has become more hostile towards Democrats than in 2006. She has a much better chance of winning reelection that Ben Nelson does. Missouri’s democratic governor, Jay Nixon will be up for reelection in 2012, and the presidential contest will dramatically increase turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City. McCaskill has a small string to thread the needle through though.

Jim Webb (D-VA): Tossup/Tilt Republican (+1 GOP)

Oh how much in two years has the pendulum in Virginia swung so wildly against the Democrats. In a span of two years, Democrats lost the governor’s office, a boat load of seats in the House of Delegates, and Congressman Nye, Perriello, Boucher washed away with the anti Democratic wave a few days ago with Rep. Connelly holding on in his Northern Virginia district with the skin of his teeth.  

Jim Webb, who knocked off incumbent GOP senator George Allen thanks to Allen not choosing his words carefully and the Dem wave of 2006 only did so by such a small margin the result wasn’t known until late into the morning the next day.

And George Allen is gunning for a rematch. And he’s most likely going to get one. Unless the tea party intervenes and runs someone like Virginia’s batshit crazy Attorney General, but that ain’t going to happen.

Webb does have the presidential contest to look forward too though. Obama will most likely turnout Democrats in Northern Virginia and in the college towns to give Webb a boost. But that’s it.

Or worst, Webb could choose to retire which is most certainly possible and wouldn’t be surprising. Then you could kiss this seat goodbye. The Democratic base in Virginia has been absolutely wiped out. Tim Kaine could run, but his close ties to the administration would hurt him, Tom Perriello could try a comeback and would play well in Northern Virginia, but would be no match for someone of the likes of George Allen. Better dig up a Democrat Ron Johnson or clone Mark Warner in this case. And for the love of god do not let Creigh Deeds anywhere near this race!!!!!

Jon Tester (D-MT): Tossup/Tilt Republican (+1 GOP)

And the NRSC hunters goes Big Sky country seeking to slay one person with a flattop haircut by the name of Jon Tester.

Jon Tester is another member of the Dem class of 2006 who just knocked off a incumbent senator, in this case Conrad Burns who was hurt by his ties to Jack Abramoff. Montana is one state that still friendly to Democrats, their governor is a Democrat, and control of both houses of the legislature has been seesawing between both parties since 2004. Tester is also quite a populist, with his opposition to the Patriot Act which earns him mega points among the liberal blogosphere while an avid defender of the Second Amendment.

Tester’s going to have a pretty strong opponent in 2012 though, their at-large GOP congressman, Dennis Rehberg who visit NRSC headquarters earlier this year to most likely discuss his run against Tester. This race could go either way, but I’m giving an early edge to Rehberg who nearly knocked off Max Baucus in 1996.

Bill Nelson (D-FL): Lean Democratic

Florida, like most other swing states in the nation was a train wreck for Democrats on Tuesday. In one foul swoop, Democrats in the state now hold the same number of house seats they did in 2006, minus one with blue dog Allen Boyd going down big time in his Panhandle district. Alex Sink also lost a hotly contested governor’s race to Rick Scott who scammed the Federal government twice! Also Marco Rubio cruised to victory in the senate race thanks to the anti-Rubio vote being split between Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek.

Bill Nelson lucked out in 2006. He was not only helped by the Dem wave, but the fact his opponent was Katherine Harris of 2000 recount fame. She lost the makeup, but she lost her sanity in exchange. Harris was so bad no one, including Jeb Bush would touch her with a 100 foot long stick and all of Florida’s newspapers endorsed her opponents during the primary. Ouch!

Bill Nelson will be high on the NRSC’s target lists come 2012. And with the GOP winning control of the house, several ambitious backbencher congressman such as Connie Mack IV could jump in. Connie Mack IV probably hoping to reclaim his father’s senate seat. Soon to be Lieutenant Governor Jennifer Carroll who Crist was thinking of appointing to the senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez could also jump in to take on Bill Nelson.

Obama’s dismantling of NASA’s space program is sure not to help, as also the idea engraved in senior’s minds that Obama wants to take away their Medicare and toss them into death camps.

Nelson will be helped by Obama though, who is sure to contest the state heavily and bring out the vote in Democratic South Florida.

Or he could retire, he is 68 and in the land of the old people he could decide to retire to some nice senior home on the coasts of Florida. In that case, Democrats should quickly hit the panic button! Charlie Crist could try to take another stab at an independent, with a lot of work done before hand to clear any legitimate Democrats away and becoming the de facto Democrat in the race. Alex Sink could be another choice as well, except if she is eying a 2014 rematch against Rick Scott, losing a senate race wouldn’t do her any good.

Suzanne Kosmas or Ron Klein who lost their seats on Tuesday could be up to the task as well. Alan Grayson’s probably off to his cable gig on MSNBC and Kendrick Meek to some comfortable lobbying job. Or if all fails, better find some rich person not by the name of Jeff Greene.

Joe Manchin (D-WV): Lean Democratic

Joe Manchin was one bright spot in an otherwise dismal night for Democrats. He beat off John Raese by badmouthing the Obama administration and literally putting a bullet through a copy of the cap and trade bill.

Manchin is up for reelection in 2012 for a full six year term. Good news, if he acts like an independent voice for West Virginia as he said he would, he’ll win and he’ll have the seat for life. He has to watch his back though, Obama’s on the ballot and this was one of only a handful of states that McCain carried by a larger margin than Bush did in 2004. Also the cap and trade bill scared the hell out of everyone in the state.

John Raese could try again, this would be his 4th senate run since the 80’s or Shelly Moore Capito could run. She took a pass because she knew Raese would teabag her. David McKinney will be busy fending off a strong Democratic challenge to even look at this race.

Sherrod Brown (D-OH): Lean Democratic

On Tuesday night, anyone who had a (D) by their name was taken out and shot. Sherrod Brown is the only Democrat left standing in a political battlefield filled with the bodies of Democrats by the name of Ted Strickland, Lee Fisher, Mary Jo Kilroy, Zack Space, etc.

Sherrod Brown, who’s probably more liberal than what you would expect in Ohio knocked off GOP senator Mike DeWine in 2006 who staged a spectacular political comeback by knocking off Democratic Attorney General Richard Cordray on Tuesday night. 2012, the NRSC is going to make sure Sherrod Brown goes down. But it won’t be easy, especially with Obama bringing out the vote in Ohio’s cities. Expect this race to go down to the wire on election night.

There are already reports that GOP congressman Jim Jordan is preparing to run against Sherrod Brown. Also Mike DeWine could run again, he’s not up for reelection until 2014 and Kasich could appoint his successor if he beats Brown in a rematch. Kasich’s running mate could run as well, short, there will be no shortage of ambitious GOP politicians gunning for Sherrod Brown in 2012.

Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA): Lean Democratic

Like Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey Jr. was forced to watch Democrats get wiped out in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night. And like Brown, Casey Jr. is going to get a tough race in 2006. In fact Casey Jr. had it easy in 2006, Rick Santorum was too batshit crazy he turned off everyone, including the crucial suburban vote that carried the GOP to huge victories on Tuesday night.

The Casey name is still golden, especially in places like Mark Critz’s district. Also Obama will bring out the crucial Philadelphia vote that he and Casey will need to offset the bleeding of suburban votes to the GOP.

Now for the bad news, Rick Santorum isn’t going to be his opponent. He’s off to seek a quixotic bid for the presidency in 2012 that will probably flounder quickly. Two people Casey does not want to face is GOP Reps. Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent. Both of them dispatched touted Dem challengers on Tuesday night and occupy suburban districts. And they aren’t crazy social warriors like Rick Santorum was. Though they would be leaving their swing seats open, which wouldn’t be good news to the NRCC.

Debbie Stabenow (D-MI): Lean Democratic

Michigan has had it hard economically for the last few decades. They’ve taken out their anger on whoever was in power, in this case the Democrats on Tuesday night. And Stabenow is probably next. And her opponent will probably be a millionaire in the Ron Johnson template. Obama will help bring out the vote in Detriot though, whatever that’s worth.

Competitive Republican senate races

Scott Brown (R-MA): Tossup/Tilt Democratic (+1 Dems – woohoo!)

A perfect storm of circumstances helped carry Scott Brown to victory in the special election in January. Martha Coakley (who should never run for anything again) and the national climate. He won’t have that storm to rely on in November of 2012. Obama is still popular in this state and the Northeast was relatively immune from the anti-Dem wave on Tuesday. Brown will also be facing the presidential headwinds head on. Deval Patrick held on and Democrats held onto the seat of retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt which Brown carried by a large margin during the special election.

Scott Brown is going to fight hard to hold this seat, and don’t expect this seat to fall easily to Democrats. Brown is sitting on $12 million dollars and is going to raise much more over the next year and he is an able campaigner. Or one who’s not afraid of shaking hands outside ballparks unlike one person who’s name shall not be mentioned. Mike Capuano who lost the special election primary to Martha Coakley and conservative Democrat Stephen Lynch are mulling running here. Mike Capuano would be the better choice here.

John Ensign (R-NV): Lean Republican

Probably the most shocking political story out of Nevada on Tuesday was that Harry Reid beat Sharron “Loony Toons” Angle by a comfortable margin. Pollsters had left him dead for weeks while Jon Ralston, Nevada’s go to guy for everything Nevada politics claimed pollsters were getting it wrong here. Well Ralston’s know it all attitude doesn’t come without years of experience right?

GOP Senator John Ensign got caught up in the summer of 2009 in a shitload of trouble surrounding his personal life due to his admission of an extramarital affair and trying to cover it all up. In theory he should be DOA. Ya…just ask David Vitter how dead he was on Tuesday night.

The problem surrounding the whole “John Ensign is dead” theory is that it happened years before the election. Enough time for the outrage to fade in the voter’s minds and for it to become an afterthought. And enough time for Ensign to repair his standing among the voters. And not to insult anyone from Nevada on this site….but crazier more outrageous things have happened here.

Though with Obama on top of the ballot and with a lack of offensive opportunities elsewhere, Democrats will go after this race like a mad rabid dog. Don’t expect much help from Harry Reid though, he and John Ensign have had a non aggression pact against each other ever since Ensign nearly knocked off Reid in 1998.

Tea party fun!!!!!!

Olympia Snowe (R-MA)

Olympia Snowe as well as her more hawkish colleague, Susan Collins have been on the target lists of the conservative wing of the Republican party for years. And with Paul LePage, who’ll probably become memorable for being the first governor to tell Obama on the phone before Air Force One lands in Maine to “get out of my state” or “go to hell” winning (thanks Libby for nothing), Olympia Snowe knows her reelection prospects have taken a hit. If she’s taken out in the primary, this seat will be almost a certain pickup for Democrats unless 1) the climate’s really bad, 2) the Democrat sabotages himself like Jack Conway did, 3) the sane vote is split up like this year.

Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

DOA. Like his soon to be former colleague, Bob Bennett, he won’t make it onto the ballot on his party’s convention which will be dominated by tea partiers. Even with his hard right turn these last two years, tea partiers won’t forgive his friendship with Ted Kennedy or the fact he’s worked with Democrats over the years on things like SCHIP and Ted Kennedy’s “Serve America” bill.

Roger Wicker (R-MS), John Barasso (R-WV), Bob Corker (R-TN)

These three ended up on a tea party hit list circulated by Erick Erikson on Redstate yesterday. What the fuck have these two done to end up on here?

Christine O’Donnell for senate 2012.

Common you know you want to laugh.

Sleeper races

Herb Kohl (D-WI): Possible retirement

Seeing how Democrats got wiped out on Tuesday night with Russ Feingold being crushed by millionaire, stimulus hypocrite, pedophile priest protector Ron Johnson, the one bright side is that Herb Kohl is an institution and would win reelection in a walk. He’s old though and could retire in 2012. In that case expect a hard fought race to be fought by both sides to determine who succeeds Kohl.

Democratic congresswoman Tammy Baldwin could take a stab at it, hoping to become the first openly lesbian elected to the United States senate and her colleague, Ron Kind might take a stab at it as well. Russ Feingold’s probably off to teach political science at some university or something. Paul Ryan will probably not want to give up his gavel as head of the House Budget committee come January so you can count him out. Maybe Sean Duffy could attempt to become the first celebrity elected to the US Senate, if you count out Scott Brown’s nude cameo in Cosmo magazine.

Kent Conrad (D-ND): Possible retirement

The good news is that Kent Conrad doesn’t have to worry about John Hoeven anymore. He’s going to be his colleague in 2011. The GOP could make a push against Conrad, but they don’t have anyone of Hoeven’s statue on the horizon yet. Conrad’s still pretty young, Dorgan was older, but a retirement is not out of the question. If that happens, this seat is gone. Earl Pomeroy could attempt a political comeback, but he’s no spring chicken and even if he wins, he’ll be renting this seat for 1 maybe 2 terms at most.

Jeff Bingamen (D-NM): Possible retirement

Democrats lost the governorship and Harry Teague was defeated on Tuesday, but to be fair, Denish ran a poor campaign and couldn’t shake Bill Richardson off her. Harry Teague was in a hostile district and would have had a though challenge anyway. The good news is that Martin Heinrich survived a tough challenge in his Albuquerque centered district.

Jeff Bingamen is getting pretty old, he’s been in the senate a good thirty years so he could retire in 2012. If that happens, Democrats have a pretty deep bench here. Martin Heinrich comes immediately to mind here, which is one reason why Republicans made a concerted effort to knock him out. The best Republicans could come up with here is former Congresswoman Heather Wilson who lost a brutal primary to Steve Pearce to determine who would go up against Tom Udall in the race to succeed retiring Republican senator Pete Dominici. (Udall won by the way.)

Heather Wilson screams RINO here, and Democrats could be helped by a tea party candidate taking out Wilson. Heinrich would be helped by Obama at the top of the ballot anyway, so this race would be at worst tossup with a slight Dem lean. This is assuming the national climate will be better for Democrats in 2012.

Bob Menendez (D-NJ): Race to Watch

Menendez has never been too popular up in New Jersey, politicians actually have never been too popular up there. And he beat Tom Kean Jr. by only 9 points in 2006 in a bruising campaign in a good Democratic year. Menendez is still a strong favorite up here, but with Chris Christie having disarmed the New Jersey Democratic party and Adler going down, with Holt and Pallone escaping with the skins of their teeth on Tuesday, anything could happen.

Jon Kyl (R-AZ): Possible retirement

Jon Kyl is no spring chicken, and only won with 53% of the vote in 2006. So he could retire. Even then, Republicans will be a favorite to win here, especially if their not over their high with SB 1070 by 2012.

If Kyl retires, the eyes of the DSCC will turn onto Gabrielle Giffords who managed to survive Tuesday night. She’s also a rising star and scares the hell out of the GOP explaining why they’re so determined to knock her out before she can become a threat. Though Giffords will be under heavy pressure from the DCCC not to vacate her swing district so odds are she would take a pass unless the Republicans nominate a wack job or an idiot like Ben Quayle who’s only in congress because of the wave.

In that case, Terry Goddard would be the DSCC’s fall back option, or even Jim Peterson.

Richard Lugar (R-IN): Possible Retirement

Lugar’s a dying breed of senators, respected by both parties for his common sense and sage like wisdom on foreign affairs and nuclear arms is getting really old. If he runs again, which he says he would, he will win in a cakewalk. Democrats didn’t even care to field a challenger against him in 2006.

If he does choose to retire, Democrats would have a 35-40% chance of picking up his seat. In reality it would be 20% even in a neutral year. Obama could contest Indiana again, that all dependents on the national climate though.

Who could run? Well Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth, last seen being crushed by Dan Coats trying to keep Evan Bayh’s seat (thanks for nothing Bayh) blue could run here. The Republicans have a plethora of choices here. Mike Pence is going to run for governor, but could decide to run for the senate instead if Lugar retires. Seeing how Evan Bayh is preparing to be the next Jerry Brown.

But let’s not get too excited here, even if Lugar retires, Democrats face a steep, 89.9 degree hill to climb here. Even when the stars aligned for Obama, he only won Indiana by 1%, and that wasn’t known until the early morning after the election.