Author: ehstronghold

Okay let’s take a crack at this. I’m going to attempt to live blog the New South Wales state election. Polls close at 6:00pm Sydney time, which is 12:00am PST, 3:00am EST. Since it’s going to be very late in the morning for me I’ll cut off the live blogging around 8:00pm Sydney time, 2:00am PST. But it is expected that if the polls are correct, we should know within an hour of the polls closing if the Coalition has won government.

3:19am PST (9:19pm AEST): Last update for this blog. Coalition has won 65 seats, Labor 16 seats. Labor will be in the wilderness for at least 8 years. And if you stumble upon this diary, just start reading from the bottom.

3:15am PST (9:15pm AEST): Former Labor premier Bob Carr says Labor could of won tonight. Riiiiight. And I’m the King of England.

3:09am PST (9:09pm AEST): Kristina Keneally announces she will step down as Labor Party leader. Says another leader needs to lead the party in the wilderness. Good thing John Robertson got elected to the seat of Blacktown tonight.

3:07am PST (9:07pm AEST): Foley: 1/3rd of Labor voters voted for the Coalition today. Most of those 1/3rd had never voted Liberal until today. Coalition has won 64 seats, projected to win 70. Labor has won 15 seats, projected to win 20.

3:01am PST (9:01pm AEST): Kristina Keneally delivering her concession speech now.

2:57am PST (8:57pm AEST): Balmain is a three way race between the Greens, Labor and the Liberals. The Liberals are leading in the primary vote right now with the Greens and Labors in a dead heat with each other.

2:52am PST (8:52pm AEST): Kristina Keneally will concede the election around the top of the hour.

2:49am PST (8:49pm AEST): Foley bemoans the fact that the Labor’s best leadership talent for the next twenty years will be former Premiers (Kristina Keneally & Nathan Rees).

2:42am PST (8:43pm AEST): After saying “Amazing” for the 1 millionth time, Berejiklian noted that the Coalition has made major inroads in Labor Heartland like the Illawara and Western Sydney.

2:33am PST (8:33pm AEST): Kristina Keneally will not concede the election for at least another hour. This is for respect for Earth Hour.

2:24am PST (8:24pm AEST): Carmel Tebbutt is the comeback kid! She’s probably going to beat Greens candidate Fiona Byrne who Foley termed a “disaster” because of her role in the Marrickville boycott of Israel. While the seat of Balmain is on a knife’s edge with the Greens just narrowly ahead.

2:12am PST (8:12pm AEST): Berejiklian happy that the Liberals could most likely pick up the seat of Campbelltown, a seat they themselves thought they couldn’t win. To imagine how bad Labor is losing right now, think of last year and imagine if Democrats had lost every marginal seat in the House and a boatload of VRA and super super safe house seats.

2:08am PST (8:08am AEST): Upper House Labor MP Luke Foley, “The Labor Heartland is gone.”

2:01am PST (8:01pm AEST): Liberals pick up the seat of Drummoyne which was held by Labor MP Angela D’Amore who was barred from running again after being found guilty on corruption charges. Coalition has won 60 seats, Labor 13. While in Blackdown, John Robertson who’s been tapped to become the next leader of the Labor Party is leading in the primary count right now. Polls had shown a close fight here.

1:57am PST (7:57pm AEST): Watching the two seat that the Greens are trying to win, Marrickville and Balmain, the Greens candidates are leading in the primary vote but ABC News has projected Labor holds on both seats. Quite confusing.

1:50am PST (7:50pm AEST): Roads Minister David Borger (who was caught covering his party affiliation on his campaign signs with sticky notes) is in a dead heat with Liberal Candidate Tony Issa. ABC News is projecting he will be reelected at the moment.

1:29am PST (7:29pm AEST): ABC Election Analysis Anthony Green comments that right now the Coalition will have a 49 seat majority in the new Parliament. Kristina Keneally is back in the lead by double digits in Heffron with 11.2% swing towards the Liberal party. As of now, Labor has won 9 seats, Coalition 60. There is a 17.1% swing against Labor with 12.1% of the vote counted.

1:26am PST (7:26pm AEST): Shadow Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian comments that former Premier Nathan Rees will probably hold this seat of Toongabbie thanks to Greens preferences. Labor at 9 seats, Coalition 57, Greens 0.

1:22am PST (7:22pm AEST): Looks like the Australian Greens may not pick up any seats at all. There is only a 3-4% swing against Carmel Tebbutt in Marrickville and Labor and the Liberals are in the top two in the primary vote right now in the seat of Balmain.

1:15am PST (7:15pm AEST): About 2% of the vote counted in Premier Keneally’s seat of Heffron….she’s down six points to the Liberal Candidate on the 2PP count.

1:11am PST (7:11pm AEST): Labor MP Noreen Hay lost her seat to an independent. What’s so startling about that? Labor carried that seat by a 24% margin in 2007.

1:06am PST (7:06pm AEST): It’s over. Barry O’Farrell is the new Premier of New South Wales. The Coalition sits on 45 seats (2 away from a majority), Labor at 6.

1:04am PST (7:04pm AEST): The cover of tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph: http://twitpic.com/4dejz3

12:58am PST (6:56pm AEST): Labor commentator on ABC News says Carmel Tebbutt is only suffering a 5% swing against her towards the Greens at the moment. Liberals have picked up the seat of Strathfield from Labor in a massive swing of 30.7% (based on one polling booth.) Labor is now at 4 seats won, 33 for Coalition.

12:52am PST (6:52pm AEST): Check the latest results here.  Coalition is at 31 seats, only 15 away from an outright majority.

12:47am PST (6:47pm AEST): Coalition has picked up the following seats: Dubbo, Bathurst, Kiama with a massive swing of 24% towards the Coalition.

12:44am PST (6:44pm AEST): Labor at 3 seats, Coalition at 18. Coalition has picked up the seat of Lake Macquaire and Strathfield.

12:39am PST (6:39pm AEST): Labor at 3 seats won, Coalition 15. ABC News has projected Labor has lost the seat of Mulgoa (15.4% swing to the Liberals). Liberals are leading the Labor seat of Londonberry with a 9.0% swing to the Liberals. Election Analysis Anthony Green saying a massive swing against Labor is going on statewide.

12:34am PST (6:32pm AEST): Labor has won 3 seats so far. Coalition 6 seats. ABC News has lifted their Geo block on their video feed. So you can watch the election coverage on their site now.

12:09am PST (6:09pm AEST): NSW Electoral Commission will start posting its first results in 20 minutes. Catch you then. ABC NewsRadio is reporting that Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt who’s seat is threatened by Greens candidate Fiona Byrne is going to make some sort of address to her supporters within the hour.

12:00am PST (6:00pm AEST): Polls are now officially closed in New South Wales. Sky News exit polling shows a 21% swing against the Labor Party. It’s about 3% larger than most polls have predicted. If this is true, every single Labor seat is at play tonight.

ABC News elections page

NSW Electoral commission

Author’s Note: Cross posted at Red Racing Horses. Part 1 (dealing with Labor’s electoral woes is here, recommend reading that before this) is linked here:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

And for a good analysis about the election, including specifically what seats will be in play this election, read this page as well:

http://www.abc.net.au/election…

The New South Wales 2011 state election

Part 2: Labor’s still heading to oblivion and how they got there.

In the Part one of this two part diary series dealing with the New South Wales election which is to be held in less than 15 days we examined the ruling Labor Government’s imminent annihilation at the ballot box. This diary will deal with the latest developments on the campaign trail and three key issues: public transportation, corruption and power privatization, issues that have helped sink Keneally and her party’s chances of even having enough members in state parliament to form a credible opposition. If things get any worst for Kristina Keneally and NSW Labor (and they certainly still can) Keneally could become the Kim Campbell of New South Wales politics and perhaps Australian politics.

Before we start talking about the three issues I listed above, we must first start talking about the recent developments on the campaign trail. And of course as electoral junkies such as ourselves must do is read the latest polling….another disastrous poll for Labor. A poll done by Galaxy (cross tabs available here) on behalf of the conservative leaning Sydney newspaper Daily Telegraph confirms what every other poll (well there have been 3 to be exact) has found. Labor’s primary vote is stuck at 23% with the Liberal/National coalition far ahead at 50%, the Greens at 14%. And when 2PP is applied, the Liberals are at 64% with Labor at 36%. Labor’s 50 seats in state parliament would be reduced to just 16. A loss of over 68% of their seats taking with them back benchers and cabinet ministers and perhaps the premier as well.

Labor’s expensive and overwhelming ad campaign and Keneally’s stellar performances during the debates have not moved the needle enough to matter. And her appeals to not give O’Farrell and the Coalition a blank check are falling on deaf ears with 66% of voters already making up their minds. And as a sign of how much the electorate has come to despise Labor, 70% of those surveyed in the poll say O’Farrell and his party will win government only because Labor deserves to lose while only 21% believe O’Farrell deserves to be elected in his own right.

Not only that, but the Greens are expected to pick up two Labor seats, Marrickville and Balmain. Marrickville is especially heartbreaking towards Labor for the seat is held by popular MP and Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt. A recent Daily Telegraph-Galaxy poll shows Tebbutt trailing Marrickville’s Greens mayor Fiona Byrne 57-43 on a 2PP basis. Education Minister Verity Firth who occupies the seat of Balmain is expected to lose her hotly contest reelection race to Leichhardt council mayor Jamie Parker.

Transport Minister John Robertson is also in the political fight of his life as he attempts hold the usually safe Labor seat of Blacktown. Robertson has been tapped by party insiders to replace Keneally as leader after the election, but to do that he has to drop down from the upper house to parliament. But the toxic climate facing NSW Labor could be Robertson’s undoing as internal polling shows Robertson would of lost the seat two weeks ago if the election was held then. Labor is reportedly poring in money and volunteers into Blacktown in order to get Robertson elected.

But the Greens hopes of perhaps picking up some more Labor seats like Keneally’s seat of Heffron were dealt a perhaps crippling blow when the Liberal party announced they would direct their voters to preference no one except the Liberals. A similar approach was used by the Liberals during the Victorian state election last year which deprived the Greens of a chance to win a lower house seat in Melbourne. On the other hand the Greens might of dealt Labor a death blow by announcing last month they would would preference neither Labor or the Liberals, the only exception being that Greens voters will direct their preferences towards Nathan Rees as he attempts to hold his seat of Toongabbie.

Anyway, two weeks ago the Liberal Party held their campaign launch in Penrith which is in Western Sydney. Western Sydney is traditionally Labor territory, but the Liberals are poised to make major inroads in the region as Labor voters are prepared to turn on their party in droves and in the process delivering a coalition government. Also Penrith was the site of a landslide special election last year which resulted in the Liberals picking up a Western Sydney seat for the first time in 20 years. Federal Opposition leader Tony Abbott was also at the rally where he called the Keneally Labor government the worst NSW has had since Captain Bligh was deposed during the rum rebellion….in 1808. He also offered a glowing endorsement of Barry O’Farrell by telling the crowd, “He ain’t pretty, but he’s pretty effective!

While the rally was being held, Labor and Greens protesters were outside heckling Liberal supporters blocking the entrance. While the protesters were hoping to force Tony Abbott and Barry O’Farrell to push their way through the gauntlet of protestors, they instead slipped into the auditorium through the back entrance. Touche.

From left to right: Young Liberals blocking the entrance and Young Labor  protesters.

Politics in Canberra have found their way into NSW with Labor PM Julia Gillard’s recently unveiling her carbon tax proposal causing a lot of heartburn for NSW Labor at a time they don’t need anymore bad news. In fact by proposing a tax on carbon, Julia Gillard broke one of her campaign promises where she promised on TV not to push a carbon tax under her government. Though Gillard didn’t have much choice but to propose a tax on carbon because she needed secure the support of the Greens senators in the Australian senate (who will hold the balance of power in the senate come July) to help push her agenda through.

As expected, Tony Abbott is screaming bloody murder saying Gillard lied to the Australian people and demanding Gillard call an election immediately to get a mandate to impose a carbon tax. And in NSW, as expected, Barry O’Farrell and the Liberals quickly lined up against it while Keneally has being doing her best to defend Gillard’s proposal. Not only did O’Farrell say a carbon tax would raise prices on fuel, food, electricity all the usual things opponents of carbon taxes/cap & trade constantly say but in a nod towards Western Sydney, O’Farrell said that a carbon tax would force train commuters to pay more. To hammer the message home, the Liberals recent launched a mobile billboard that will “travel to those parts of the state that will be hit hardest by Labor’s carbon tax.”

This image will be on a Liberal party mobile billboard. From left to right: Julia Gillard and Kristina Keneally. Credit to NSW Liberal Party.

With the Keneally government all but certain to go down in a crushing defeat, Labor MP’s everywhere have been doing anything they can to save themselves with Labor MP’s in marginal and in seats not super safe for the party have been accused of trying to hide the fact they are part of the Labor party. For example Roads minister David Borger who’s seat of Granville (carried by Labor by a 11% margin in 2007) is expected to change hands come March 26th was caught using post it notes to cover up his party affiliation on campaign signs at his campaign office. (Australian law requires candidates to clearly display their party affiliation in the lower right corner of their campaign posters.)

Spot the Labor candidate if you can. Credit to Brianne Makin and the Daily Telegraph.

With the time running out for Labor, there are signs that even the unions (a reliable Labor constituency) have abandoned all hope of a Labor victory with a recently launched ad where one of the people in the ad tells two other people with her that, “…they reckon we’re getting a new state government.” The three people in the ad then proceed to in vague terms talk about what an O’Farrell government would mean for them. Even the person running the Labor campaign efforts and party secretary Sam Dastyari told the Daily Telegraph that it was basically all over except the screaming:

“Barry O’Farrell is going to win this thing, and he is going to win it big,” Mr Dastyari said. “But he doesn’t deserve the majority he will get.”

Keneally herself all but conceded defeat when at a campaign stop in Sydney yesterday, she delivered what could be called a doomsday speech. She warned voters to, “Take care of your neighbor because there will be fewer police to do that for you.” Keneally also warned parents to read to their children at night because a good public education would become a memory under a Coalition government because, “…our teachers join nurses on the unemployment queue.” O’Farrell was livid at Keneally’s speech calling it bizarre and called it a new low because Keneally was seeking to scare the most vulnerable in the community.

Now we will examine several key issues that have brought NSW Labor to the bring of political extinction. The first of them being power privatization.

Power privatization (You’d think the party that supports more “private sector” involvement in government would do this):

When the talk heads discuss on election night why the Keneally government went down in When the talk heads discuss on election night why the Keneally government went down in blazing defeat, they’ll probably talk mostly about corrupt MP’s and Labor’s half baked attempt to privatize the state’s electrical assets. Plans to privatize the state’s electrical assets began shortly after the Iemma Labor government was reelected in 2007. To make it clear, Labor was not reelected in 2007 because they were loved by the public, but because of hatred towards then PM John Howard (who you might remember as Bush’s loyal ally on Iraq and saying that an Obama presidency would be the best thing that ever happened to Al-Qaeda) and the fact the opposition led by Peter “Member for Vaucluse” Debnam was beyond hopeless. To prove how loathed the Iemma Labor government was already at this point, three major newspaper, The Australian, the Sydney Morning Herald and the Daily Telegraph threw their support behind the Coalition, though they indicated this was a lesser of two evils decision than anything else.

Federal politics came into play here. With the 2007 Federal election (which would see Kevin Rudd becoming the first Labor PM in 12 years) less than a few months away, Kevin Rudd and the National Labor party wanted Iemma to drop his plans for power privatization until after the election. Labor was running heavily against the Howard government’s “WorkChoices” legislation (think Scott Walker’s proposal to eliminate collective bargaining except on steroids) and the unions were helping Labor in this endeavor by pumping in millions of dollars in attack ads. Rudd did not want the unions in NSW to turn their attention from Howard and the Liberals to fighting Iemma’s privatization schemes.

In a secret meeting between the two, Iemma agreed to drop his power privatization scheme until after the election and Rudd would help, “…. fuck them [the unions] together.”

Iemma only kicked the can down to an epic confrontation between himself and the unions which exploded during the May 2008 party conference. There the government and the unions turned the usually grassroots like conference to a angry debate with cabinet ministers stepping up to the podium to sell the power privatization plan to a skeptical audience and various speakers coming to the podium ridiculing the plan including ALP President Bernie Riordan.

But the show was stolen by then treasurer and architect of the privatization plan Michael Costa’s newsworthy outbursts during during the conference. The first of which observers could hear Costa yelling at Premier Iemma telling him not to accept the conference’s decision if they come out against power privatization. The second outburst involved Costa angrily eviscerating the secretary of Unions NSW and future Transport Minister John Robertson with Costa telling him, “You blokes can get fucked! You’re going to look like dickheads on Monday morning!”

Then came Costa’s speech to the delegates which TV commentators would label “Mussolini-like” where Costa would berate and harangue the audience in a fit of rage:

“It is an absolute joke to come into this conference and claim and claim that prices are going up. When we are adopting a policy, the Gano policy which will increase prices by 30%. So that’s a falsehood #1!

Falsehood #2! Jobs will go offshore! Jobs will go offshore! Half the people people in this room are wearing yellow t-shirts made in China! In China! Your a joke! Your a absolute joke! You don’t care about that, you don’t care about jobs offshore, it’s convenient, it’s convenient. The reality is, the reality is, more power stations means more jobs! More power stations means more jobs! Jobs are not going offshore! We will have more jobs!”

Costa’s temper tantrum. Credit to Steve Lunam of the Sydney Morning Herald.

The delegates assembled would overwhelmingly reject the Iemma government’s power privatization plan 702 to 107. A day later though, Iemma went full steam ahead with his plans, regardless of what the unions and party faithful though. In late August Parliament was reconvened in order to vote for a power privatization bill. Iemma had a problem though, he could not corral the votes needed to pass the bill on a party line vote so he turned to the Coalition for help. Unfortunately for Iemma, the Coalition declared their unanimous opposition to Labor’s efforts to privatizing power. Without the support of the Coalition and Iemma facing the humiliating sight of 14 Labor MP’s crossing over and voting against the bill, it was quickly yanked from the floor.

While Iemma began exploring alternative ways to sell the state’s power assets off without needing parliament’s okay, his deputy premier John Watkins resigned from parliament. This was the catalyst for a major cabinet reshuffle that would prove to be the end of the Iemma government. The same day Iemma sacked Michael Costa as treasurer, his cabinet choices were rejected by the party’s powerful right faction and Iemma was forced to resign from parliament. He was then replaced as premier by Nathan Rees, a freshman MP who hailed from the party’s left faction. Rees only lasted a little over a year where after angering every power broker on the NSW Labor’s right faction was canned himself and replaced by Planning Minister Kristina Keneally. Before Rees was thrown out the door he took a shot at any challenger labeling them a puppet of Eddie Obedid and Joe Tripodi, the two major power brokers in the NSW Labor’s right faction.

With Keneally firmly in control of the reins now, Labor would go past the point of now return on power privatization. And on December 15th, 2010, Treasurer Eric Roozendaal announced the sale of state owned power companies Country Energy and Integral Energy were sold with the output of the power generator Eraring sold to Origin Energy, all for $5.3 billion. Two private companies, TRUenergy and Origin now had a duopoly over 85% of the state’s energy market.

The opposition quickly blasted Labor saying they basically gave away the electricity assets to the private sector and analysis concluded that power costs would rise for many people. Also lending credit to the opposition’s attacks were the fact 8 out 11 board members on the state owned companies of Eraring and Delta Electricity resigned before the sale announced forcing Roozendaal replace them so the sale could go ahead. It would be revealed a month later the government only pocked $3.27 billion from the sale. An attempt to offload the rest of the state owned power assets would fail when the political climate became too toxic to even think of buying the rest of the state’s assets.

And in a move labeled as the “trashing of democracy” by O’Farrell, Keneally ordered parliament to be shut down days after the sale in order to prevent an inquiry into the merits of the deal as confirmed by papers acquired by the Coalition a few weeks ago. An inquiry into the deal happened anyway and they came to the conclusion the sell off was a fiscal disaster. Keneally and Roozendaal blasted the report as a political cheap shot while O’Farrell reveled in the findings. Unfortunately if the state government were to backtrack on the deal, they would have to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation, something no one is in the mood for.  

The NSW Labor hall of shame aka scandals, corruption, etc.

1. Cherie Burton: Loses driving license for a year after being convicted of drunk driving. (Expected to lose reelection.)

2. David Campbell: Caught leaving a gay sex club. Forced to resign as Transport Minister. (Retiring, Labor should be able hold his seat if only barely.)

3. Angela D’Amore: ICAC (Independent Commission Against Corruption) found D’Amore guilty of giving her staff kickbacks. She was canned immediately as parliamentary secretary for police by Keneally herself. Facing criminal charges. (Barred from running again, Labor expected to lose her seat.)

4. Karyn Paluzzano: Caught LYING to ICAC about giving her staff kickbacks. Quickly resigned from parliament over the matter. (Labor lost her seat of Penrith in a landslide special election.)

5. Milton Orkopoulous: Resigned from parliament over charges he raped several young boys. Subsequently convicted on 28 charges including 8 for having sex with a minor, 13 counts of supplying weed, four counts of supply heroin and three counts of indecent assault on a minor. (Labor held his seat easily in the 2007 election.)

6. Matt Brown: Resigns as police minister after a few days on the job after being caught having a wild night at a party which included him dancing in his underwear and simulating a sex act on a fellow MP, while telling the MP’s daughter who was watching the affair in probably horror he was, “titty fucking” her mother. (Expected to lose reelection.)

7. Tony Stewart: Sacked as small business minister after Rees found out he bulled a female staffer. (Retiring, Labor should be able to his seat of Bankstown.)

8. John Della Bosca: Resigned as Health Minister after caught having an affair with a 26 year old woman. He was 28 years her senior.

9. Ian MacDonald: Sacked as state development Minister after caught misusing taxpayer funds to pay for a trip to the Middle East. (Resigned his seat in the upper house on June 7th, 2010 and replaced by Luke Foley.)

10. Paul McLeay: Resigned as Ports and Waterways Minister after caught and admitting to using parliamentary computers to access porn and online gambling websites. Days later the search was deemed illegal and not accurate but the damage was already done. (Expected to lose reelection.)

Public transportation (well really rail to be specific)

Unlike in this country where spending money on public transportation specifically passenger rail is considered wasting good money that can be used to build highways and roads, passenger rail is very important in Australia. Case in point, one of the reasons why the Brumby Labor government went down in Victoria last year was because voters were angry at how the rail system in Melbourne and the suburbs continued to be in poor shape. And in NSW, the Keneally government has been dogged repeatedly over the state of Sydney’s commuter rail system named CityRail, or as the locals like to derogatorily call it, ShityRail.

And for good reason. With hundreds of thousands of Sydney commuters using CityRail daily, the system is plagued by frequent overcrowding and many of the older trains don’t even have air conditioning with the train cars supposed to replace them having been delayed over and over again. (They still haven’t been put into service.) In addition CityRail is a favorite of vandals who often tag the trains, some even brazen enough to film their exploits in broad daylight.

A typical commute on CityRail during rush hour. (And yes those are people standing in the stairwell.)

But that’s not where the juicy stuff lies. Unlike in this country, the argument is not over if money needs to be spent on brand new rail lines, but where the money should be spent. And at the heart of the argument lies a promise Gillard made during the Federal campaign last year.

In an effort to hold the marginal seat of Bennalong which was taken from the Liberals when Maxine McKew defeated PM John Howard in 2007, Gillard promise the Federal government would

earmark $2 billion dollars towards the Epping to Parramatta rail link (EPRL). The Carr Labor government had actually began construction of the EPRL years ago, but the line was truncated to the half way point at Chatswood after costs blew out. (The scaled back rail link still managed to come several years late and way over budget.) Of course this announcement came out of nowhere, the state government had no plans to finish the rail link until Gillard coughed up the funding to do it. And Labor boss Karl Bitar would later admit Gillard should of never promised to help finish the rail link. The Liberals seized upon the announcement and labeled it as pure pork barreling and aired attack ads criticizing the deal. And even the locals were skeptical that the line would be built this time.

And to top it all off, Maxine McKew lost her reelection fight to Liberal candidate John Alexander. But after her concession speech, Maxine McKew was more than happy to vent her anger of Labor’s national campaign that led it to the lowest percentage of the vote since the 40’s.

Even though construction of the rail link is scheduled to start next year, the Coalition has vowed to put the project on the back burner for the foreseeable future in favor for the North West and South West rail links (South West rail link is already under construction). While Labor is committed to building the EPRL, Western Express and finishing the South West rail link. The Coalition has also vowed to forced Canberra to divert the federal money earmarked for the EPRL to the North West rail link which Gillard has flatly out refused to do.

Unfortunately for the Keneally government, internal documents leaked to the Daily Telegraph this week revealed that the EPRL will be opened a year behind schedule and over budget. This is all if the the rail link is even built which the Coalition has pledged not to.

Further down the weeds, Barry O’Farrell has pledged to add 135 CityRail express trains a week for commuters in Western Sydney and the Central Coast. Both regions are must win areas for the Coalition. While Keneally has promised free wifi for all CityRail commuters if they win the election.

Two weeks ago Keneally gave her constituents a “Please keep me in office” gift by slashing train fares at two stations in her district, which went into effect a few days after the announcement. The Coalition pledged to support the plan, but they blasted it as pork barreling noting the timing was very convenient and it directly benefited her constituents.

Final words and thoughts

Well if you managed to read through this diary I congratulate you. This diary took me a week to write but I assure you it was fun to right.

Now you maybe wondering what will this mean for Federal Labor and where will Labor suffer another loss. In the short term losing control of another state will be bad for the Gillard government. Especially since O’Farrell as indicated he will cause endless grief for her especially over the carbon tax proposal. But in the long run it might be better for the Julia Gillard to let NSW Labor go down in a flaming defeat. And it also might be good for Gillard to watch the Bligh government in Queensland go down in defeat next year as well. One of the reasons why NSW Labor is in for an electoral wipeout come the 26th is that they really wore out their welcome. It would of been better for the party to lose in 2007 in order to dissipate the anger building up against the party for years. NSW Labor also didn’t help itself by members in the party acting like buffoons and throwing good ethics into the garbage.

Both the Keneally and Bligh governments have become increasingly toxic and weighed down Federal Labor in recent years. The Liberal Party last election aired attack ads tying Gillard to Keneally and Bligh. And especially in Queensland where both the state and Federal Liberal parties worked overtime to tie Gillard to the unpopular Bligh government. And it worked with the bulk of Labor’s loses coming from Queensland.

The New South Wales 2011 state election

Part 1: Labor annihilation

For the past 16 years, the government of the Australian state of New South Wales (where Sydney is located) has been controlled by the Labor Party (Australia’s center left party, similar to the Democrats here in the US). While for 16 years the opposition, in the form of the Liberal/National Coalition (Australia’s answer to the GOP) has toiled away in the shadows waiting for their chance to end their 16 year time in the desert.

Come March 26, 2011, its a near certainty that the Liberals will be in control of NSW as the Labor government under the leadership of American born Premier Kristina Keneally heads for a landslide defeat with the first poll of the election showing Labor behind double digits in both  primary and 2PP (two party preference) polling and facing a whopping loss of over 2/3rds of their seats in the state parliament.

A landslide loss like the one Labor is facing and the one that befell Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats in the House in November of last year would be the topping off of some of the most tumultuous years ever to befall NSW Labor as they went through no less than three premiers in four years, scandals ranging from kickbacks for staffers, DUI convictions, spouses found using drugs to the fallout from the Keneally government’s botched attempt to privatize the state’s electricity system and to the wrath of Sydney commuters fed up of waiting in traffic and being packed into late trains, some of which don’t even have air conditioning.

And a Liberal victory in NSW would put a dagger through the heart of the Australian Labor party as the party draws upon much of its organizational and financial support from the state. PM Julia Gillard owes her job to the help of party power brokers in NSW.

It would mark another woe for Federal Labor as the party has seen its once complete control of all the Australian states shattered with Liberal victories in Western Australia in 2008 and in Gillard’s own backyard of Victoria in 2010, the latter of which only decided by a handful of votes in a seat in Melbourne’s suburbs. The party is also facing a loss in not only NSW, but in Queensland as the Bligh government’s support languishes in opinion polls.

This diary of the NSW state elections will be broken into two parts, one detailing NSW Labor’s electoral woes and the second focusing on three major issues, corruption, public transportation and power privatization, issues that have helped bring Labor down in the polls. This diary will first deal with Labor’s electoral woes.

What no better way to start talking about Labor’s impending electoral disaster is to first start talking about a recent poll done by Nielsen on behalf of the Sydney Morning Herald which brought nothing but bad news for NSW Labor.

The Liberals was far ahead with 53%, followed by Labor with a whopping 22% of the vote and followed by the Greens at 13% of the vote. When 2PP is taken into account, the Liberals remains far ahead with 64% of the vote to Labor’s 33%. Labor’s in Blanche Lincoln territory at this point. Reporters were quick to point out that Labor’s standing in the poll was the lowest a major party ever received in Nielsen’s 40 year history. 54% of voters also preferred the opposition leader Barry O’Farrell as premier to Kristina Keneally’s 36% of voters preferring she remain premier.

From left to right, Premier Kristina Keneally and Opposition leader Barry O’Farrell. Photos taken by Alex Ellinghausen of the Sydney Morning Herald.

If the Liberals’ vote swings by 18% as predicted by this poll, Labor would lose up to 35 seats, wiping out MP’s in both marginal and safe seats. Backbenchers like former premier Nathan Rees, and cabinet ministers would find themselves out of parliament on election day. Labor would be reduced to only 17 seats in parliament. The Liberals only needs a 8% swing in the vote to claim an outright majority. And Premier Keneally might also wind up losing her seat as well as the Greens make an aggressive play for her seat of Heffron which Keneally carried by 24% in the last election. The Greens are hoping voter discontent and Liberal voters preferencing the Greens (Australia has ranked choice voting) will carry the day for them. Keneally’s seat also takes in the towns of Merrickville and Randwick which have Green councilors, mayors and a growing Green vote.

This is not without precedent as former Coalition PM John Howard lost his own seat of Bennalong in the Sydney suburbs in 2007 to political newcomer. The Liberals won that seat back last year. And in an attempt to hold that seat, PM Gillard made a very big promise during the campaign that is being used as political football this year, something I will go more into detail the next diary.

Labor’s languishing standing in the polls has been noticeable for the last two years. In fact according to the Daily Telegraph (one of Robert Murdoch’s right wing Australian rags so treat this with a big of grain of salt as you wish) Nathan Rees when he was still premier had the Labor Party poll the seat of Kogarah, which Labor carried with a 17.7% in September of 2009. And despite the fact this was one of Murdoch’s right wing newspapers…..Kogarah is considered one of the seat that could flip if Labor does not find a way to close the gap in the polls. As they say, a broken clock is right twice a day.

Labor hasn’t cracked 40% since April of last year. Not good for a party in power for 16 years.

Keneally’s own poll numbers have sunk as her government is hit by one debacle after another….

….as voters overwhelming want Barry O’Farrell to be premier.

Labor received an unwelcome advanced screening of the potential carnage awaiting them in March during June of last year. In June of last year, a special election was held to fill the seat of Penrith that became vacant when Labor MP Karyn Paluzzano was found guilty of using taxpayer money for her reelection campaign. In that election, the Liberals easily picked up the seat earning 51% of the vote to Labor’s 24% to the Greens 13%. And when 2PP was applied, the Liberals took 66% of the vote to Labor’s 34%, a record setting swing of 25% towards the Liberals. And adding insult to injury, the Greens earned more votes than Labor in four polling booths. This was also the first time in two decades that a western Sydney seat had fallen to the Liberal party. And as one reporter put it, “…she [Kristina Keneally] faces the uncomfortable reality that voters everywhere could be waiting with baseball bats for this government.”

Labor also faces the unsettling fact that they are defending a disproportionally large amount of seats in parliament, 19 to the Liberal/National coalition’s 7. And Labor could lose up to 11 of those open seats if the Liberals maintain their overwhelming lead in the polls. And if the Penrith special election leaves any clues, one of those seats, Drummoyne is already gone. Angela D’Amore, the Labor MP holding that seat was was found guilty of giving her staff kickbacks and was stripped of her right to contest the seat by Keneally. D’Amore only carried the seat by a 7.6% margin last time.

Labor also suffered another headache 10 days ago when Nico Mathews, the Labor candidate contesting the Liberal held seat of Albury was forced to withdraw from the race after being charged with drunk (drink – yes they call it drink there) driving. Not that it really mattered anyway, the Liberal party carried the seat by a 19% margin in 2007.

Though that could be sort of balanced out when a Liberal candidate for the seat of Granville found it necessary to argue with a police officer on camera about why his truck with a mobile billboard promoting his candidacy was parked illegally near an campaign event Keneally was holding. The incident was even stranger when Liberal party volunteers came up to Keneally asking for her autograph. Then again, a few attendees at CPAC 2010 were asking Rachel Maddow for her autograph so I guess its not that too uncommon.

Anyway, the campaign season has began in earnest, with Kristina Keneally using her party’s election kickoff to apologize to voters for Labor’s troubles and asking the voters to put their trust in her party again. She also used the event to roll out her, “Fairness for Families” package which would cap government taxes, fees, public transport fares and giving power rebates to households earning less than $150k Australian dollars.

The “Fairness for Families” package has been a central talking point in Labor TV ads and the Liberals have blasted the package in their TV ads to the tune of, “Same old Labor, same old tricks. Same old Labor, same old failure!”

From left to right. A Liberal party TV ad and a Labor party TV ad.

The parties also locked horns when Barry O’Farrell released his plan to help lower home prices by giving developers 10,000 more blocks of land in Western Sydney to build homes on. Labor quickly pounced on the plan with Keneally accusing O’Farrell of wanting to put 500,000 more people in Western Sydney without the roads, train lines and infrastructure to support such a large increase in population. O’Farrell snapped back saying Western Sydney is tired of hearing Keneally and Labor’s attacks and argued that his plan would help people in the long haul.

Keneally and O’Farrell also clashed over public transportation at a debate in Penrith a few weeks ago. Keneally said that O’Farrell was saying the Liberals would not build, “one new kilometer of road, not one new kilometer of rail” to which O’Farrell angrily snapped back, “North west rail link!” Currently the Labor government is pledging to fast track the building of two new commuter rail lines, the Western Express and Epping to Parramatta line. While the Liberals are pledging to instead focus on building the North West and South West rail links first.

As Keneally pledges to fight up to election day, many in the media have already written the Labor government’s obituary. Though Barry O’Farrell is wise not to start holding victory parties yet, he is keeping his cool. With all its troubles, NSW Labor can be comforted by one fact, the Coalition (Liberals/Nationals) are probably not going to win control of the upper house (Legislative counsel). The Greens are hoping to gain two more seats in the upper house.

And if Labor somehow holds onto power come March 26th, they would of pulled off one of the biggest upsets in political history….

And this is the end of this diary. If you read through all of this, congratulations! I hope you learned a little bit about Australian politics reading this like I did writing this diary. And thank you to BenjamindIsraeli for passing on some tips about how to read Australian polling. The next diary will detail some of the issues that are sinking the Labor government this election. Until next time!

Note: The links to the polling I have referenced are listed below:

http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi…

http://www.theage.com.au/opini…

2 years is an eternity in politics but Democrats put on the best rose tinted glasses you have, Republicans bring out the fireworks…. Anyway grab a cup of Hot Coco, sit back and start reading.

Competitive Democratic senate races

Ben Nelson (D-NE): Lean Republican (+1 GOP)

Ben Nelson is dead. That’s it. There is no way Democrats will win this race, short of the GOP nominee completely imploding because of a personal scandal a few weeks before the election. His grandstanding during the health care debate has mortally wounded him and damaged his standing in the state.

Even if Obama is doing relatively well enough in 2012 that he puts Lee Terry’s district into play on the presidential level (Nebraska is one of only two states, Maine the other one, that awards some of its electoral votes to whoever wins a specific congressional district) it will not be enough to save Ben Nelson. Obama only has to win Lee Terry’s district to claim some sort of a victory in Nebraska, Nelson has to win the entire state to claim victory. Big difference.

The only interesting action going on this race will be on the GOP side to see who wins the right to cruise into the senate in January of 2013.

Update: That was fast, Nebraska’s GOP attorney general Jon Bruning is planning to run against Ben Nelson. He’s not going to be the last, this is going to be a fun primary.

Claire McCaskill (D-MO): Tossup/Tilt Republican (+1 GOP)

2010 was a massacre for Democrats in Missouri. Robin Carnahan was smoked big time by Roy Blunt, her brother barely won reelection to the house in a race no one was watching, Congressman Emanuel Cleaver won reelection by a shocking 9 points and turnout sunk to abysmal levels in Democratic St. Louis and Kansas City.

On top of that while Obama was cleaning McCain’s clock, swing state wise, he barely lost the state, even though Obama left no stone unturned looking for votes in St. Louis and Kansas City suggesting that the rural areas are just too tough for someone named Obama to win. (Bill or Hillary Clinton who have more of a pull on rural voters could still win the state.)

Enter Claire McCaskill who already had a huge bulls eye painted on her back. McCaskill beat incumbent GOP senator Jim Talent (who happened to defeat another member of the Carnahan family 4 years earlier) by a razor thin margin in 2006, which was a good year for Democrats across the board.

McCaskill has a huge hill to climb if she wants to win reelection. Ideologically McCaskill isn’t that out of sync with Missouri but she’ll be facing an electorate that has become more hostile towards Democrats than in 2006. She has a much better chance of winning reelection that Ben Nelson does. Missouri’s democratic governor, Jay Nixon will be up for reelection in 2012, and the presidential contest will dramatically increase turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City. McCaskill has a small string to thread the needle through though.

Jim Webb (D-VA): Tossup/Tilt Republican (+1 GOP)

Oh how much in two years has the pendulum in Virginia swung so wildly against the Democrats. In a span of two years, Democrats lost the governor’s office, a boat load of seats in the House of Delegates, and Congressman Nye, Perriello, Boucher washed away with the anti Democratic wave a few days ago with Rep. Connelly holding on in his Northern Virginia district with the skin of his teeth.  

Jim Webb, who knocked off incumbent GOP senator George Allen thanks to Allen not choosing his words carefully and the Dem wave of 2006 only did so by such a small margin the result wasn’t known until late into the morning the next day.

And George Allen is gunning for a rematch. And he’s most likely going to get one. Unless the tea party intervenes and runs someone like Virginia’s batshit crazy Attorney General, but that ain’t going to happen.

Webb does have the presidential contest to look forward too though. Obama will most likely turnout Democrats in Northern Virginia and in the college towns to give Webb a boost. But that’s it.

Or worst, Webb could choose to retire which is most certainly possible and wouldn’t be surprising. Then you could kiss this seat goodbye. The Democratic base in Virginia has been absolutely wiped out. Tim Kaine could run, but his close ties to the administration would hurt him, Tom Perriello could try a comeback and would play well in Northern Virginia, but would be no match for someone of the likes of George Allen. Better dig up a Democrat Ron Johnson or clone Mark Warner in this case. And for the love of god do not let Creigh Deeds anywhere near this race!!!!!

Jon Tester (D-MT): Tossup/Tilt Republican (+1 GOP)

And the NRSC hunters goes Big Sky country seeking to slay one person with a flattop haircut by the name of Jon Tester.

Jon Tester is another member of the Dem class of 2006 who just knocked off a incumbent senator, in this case Conrad Burns who was hurt by his ties to Jack Abramoff. Montana is one state that still friendly to Democrats, their governor is a Democrat, and control of both houses of the legislature has been seesawing between both parties since 2004. Tester is also quite a populist, with his opposition to the Patriot Act which earns him mega points among the liberal blogosphere while an avid defender of the Second Amendment.

Tester’s going to have a pretty strong opponent in 2012 though, their at-large GOP congressman, Dennis Rehberg who visit NRSC headquarters earlier this year to most likely discuss his run against Tester. This race could go either way, but I’m giving an early edge to Rehberg who nearly knocked off Max Baucus in 1996.

Bill Nelson (D-FL): Lean Democratic

Florida, like most other swing states in the nation was a train wreck for Democrats on Tuesday. In one foul swoop, Democrats in the state now hold the same number of house seats they did in 2006, minus one with blue dog Allen Boyd going down big time in his Panhandle district. Alex Sink also lost a hotly contested governor’s race to Rick Scott who scammed the Federal government twice! Also Marco Rubio cruised to victory in the senate race thanks to the anti-Rubio vote being split between Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek.

Bill Nelson lucked out in 2006. He was not only helped by the Dem wave, but the fact his opponent was Katherine Harris of 2000 recount fame. She lost the makeup, but she lost her sanity in exchange. Harris was so bad no one, including Jeb Bush would touch her with a 100 foot long stick and all of Florida’s newspapers endorsed her opponents during the primary. Ouch!

Bill Nelson will be high on the NRSC’s target lists come 2012. And with the GOP winning control of the house, several ambitious backbencher congressman such as Connie Mack IV could jump in. Connie Mack IV probably hoping to reclaim his father’s senate seat. Soon to be Lieutenant Governor Jennifer Carroll who Crist was thinking of appointing to the senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez could also jump in to take on Bill Nelson.

Obama’s dismantling of NASA’s space program is sure not to help, as also the idea engraved in senior’s minds that Obama wants to take away their Medicare and toss them into death camps.

Nelson will be helped by Obama though, who is sure to contest the state heavily and bring out the vote in Democratic South Florida.

Or he could retire, he is 68 and in the land of the old people he could decide to retire to some nice senior home on the coasts of Florida. In that case, Democrats should quickly hit the panic button! Charlie Crist could try to take another stab at an independent, with a lot of work done before hand to clear any legitimate Democrats away and becoming the de facto Democrat in the race. Alex Sink could be another choice as well, except if she is eying a 2014 rematch against Rick Scott, losing a senate race wouldn’t do her any good.

Suzanne Kosmas or Ron Klein who lost their seats on Tuesday could be up to the task as well. Alan Grayson’s probably off to his cable gig on MSNBC and Kendrick Meek to some comfortable lobbying job. Or if all fails, better find some rich person not by the name of Jeff Greene.

Joe Manchin (D-WV): Lean Democratic

Joe Manchin was one bright spot in an otherwise dismal night for Democrats. He beat off John Raese by badmouthing the Obama administration and literally putting a bullet through a copy of the cap and trade bill.

Manchin is up for reelection in 2012 for a full six year term. Good news, if he acts like an independent voice for West Virginia as he said he would, he’ll win and he’ll have the seat for life. He has to watch his back though, Obama’s on the ballot and this was one of only a handful of states that McCain carried by a larger margin than Bush did in 2004. Also the cap and trade bill scared the hell out of everyone in the state.

John Raese could try again, this would be his 4th senate run since the 80’s or Shelly Moore Capito could run. She took a pass because she knew Raese would teabag her. David McKinney will be busy fending off a strong Democratic challenge to even look at this race.

Sherrod Brown (D-OH): Lean Democratic

On Tuesday night, anyone who had a (D) by their name was taken out and shot. Sherrod Brown is the only Democrat left standing in a political battlefield filled with the bodies of Democrats by the name of Ted Strickland, Lee Fisher, Mary Jo Kilroy, Zack Space, etc.

Sherrod Brown, who’s probably more liberal than what you would expect in Ohio knocked off GOP senator Mike DeWine in 2006 who staged a spectacular political comeback by knocking off Democratic Attorney General Richard Cordray on Tuesday night. 2012, the NRSC is going to make sure Sherrod Brown goes down. But it won’t be easy, especially with Obama bringing out the vote in Ohio’s cities. Expect this race to go down to the wire on election night.

There are already reports that GOP congressman Jim Jordan is preparing to run against Sherrod Brown. Also Mike DeWine could run again, he’s not up for reelection until 2014 and Kasich could appoint his successor if he beats Brown in a rematch. Kasich’s running mate could run as well, short, there will be no shortage of ambitious GOP politicians gunning for Sherrod Brown in 2012.

Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA): Lean Democratic

Like Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey Jr. was forced to watch Democrats get wiped out in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night. And like Brown, Casey Jr. is going to get a tough race in 2006. In fact Casey Jr. had it easy in 2006, Rick Santorum was too batshit crazy he turned off everyone, including the crucial suburban vote that carried the GOP to huge victories on Tuesday night.

The Casey name is still golden, especially in places like Mark Critz’s district. Also Obama will bring out the crucial Philadelphia vote that he and Casey will need to offset the bleeding of suburban votes to the GOP.

Now for the bad news, Rick Santorum isn’t going to be his opponent. He’s off to seek a quixotic bid for the presidency in 2012 that will probably flounder quickly. Two people Casey does not want to face is GOP Reps. Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent. Both of them dispatched touted Dem challengers on Tuesday night and occupy suburban districts. And they aren’t crazy social warriors like Rick Santorum was. Though they would be leaving their swing seats open, which wouldn’t be good news to the NRCC.

Debbie Stabenow (D-MI): Lean Democratic

Michigan has had it hard economically for the last few decades. They’ve taken out their anger on whoever was in power, in this case the Democrats on Tuesday night. And Stabenow is probably next. And her opponent will probably be a millionaire in the Ron Johnson template. Obama will help bring out the vote in Detriot though, whatever that’s worth.

Competitive Republican senate races

Scott Brown (R-MA): Tossup/Tilt Democratic (+1 Dems – woohoo!)

A perfect storm of circumstances helped carry Scott Brown to victory in the special election in January. Martha Coakley (who should never run for anything again) and the national climate. He won’t have that storm to rely on in November of 2012. Obama is still popular in this state and the Northeast was relatively immune from the anti-Dem wave on Tuesday. Brown will also be facing the presidential headwinds head on. Deval Patrick held on and Democrats held onto the seat of retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt which Brown carried by a large margin during the special election.

Scott Brown is going to fight hard to hold this seat, and don’t expect this seat to fall easily to Democrats. Brown is sitting on $12 million dollars and is going to raise much more over the next year and he is an able campaigner. Or one who’s not afraid of shaking hands outside ballparks unlike one person who’s name shall not be mentioned. Mike Capuano who lost the special election primary to Martha Coakley and conservative Democrat Stephen Lynch are mulling running here. Mike Capuano would be the better choice here.

John Ensign (R-NV): Lean Republican

Probably the most shocking political story out of Nevada on Tuesday was that Harry Reid beat Sharron “Loony Toons” Angle by a comfortable margin. Pollsters had left him dead for weeks while Jon Ralston, Nevada’s go to guy for everything Nevada politics claimed pollsters were getting it wrong here. Well Ralston’s know it all attitude doesn’t come without years of experience right?

GOP Senator John Ensign got caught up in the summer of 2009 in a shitload of trouble surrounding his personal life due to his admission of an extramarital affair and trying to cover it all up. In theory he should be DOA. Ya…just ask David Vitter how dead he was on Tuesday night.

The problem surrounding the whole “John Ensign is dead” theory is that it happened years before the election. Enough time for the outrage to fade in the voter’s minds and for it to become an afterthought. And enough time for Ensign to repair his standing among the voters. And not to insult anyone from Nevada on this site….but crazier more outrageous things have happened here.

Though with Obama on top of the ballot and with a lack of offensive opportunities elsewhere, Democrats will go after this race like a mad rabid dog. Don’t expect much help from Harry Reid though, he and John Ensign have had a non aggression pact against each other ever since Ensign nearly knocked off Reid in 1998.

Tea party fun!!!!!!

Olympia Snowe (R-MA)

Olympia Snowe as well as her more hawkish colleague, Susan Collins have been on the target lists of the conservative wing of the Republican party for years. And with Paul LePage, who’ll probably become memorable for being the first governor to tell Obama on the phone before Air Force One lands in Maine to “get out of my state” or “go to hell” winning (thanks Libby for nothing), Olympia Snowe knows her reelection prospects have taken a hit. If she’s taken out in the primary, this seat will be almost a certain pickup for Democrats unless 1) the climate’s really bad, 2) the Democrat sabotages himself like Jack Conway did, 3) the sane vote is split up like this year.

Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

DOA. Like his soon to be former colleague, Bob Bennett, he won’t make it onto the ballot on his party’s convention which will be dominated by tea partiers. Even with his hard right turn these last two years, tea partiers won’t forgive his friendship with Ted Kennedy or the fact he’s worked with Democrats over the years on things like SCHIP and Ted Kennedy’s “Serve America” bill.

Roger Wicker (R-MS), John Barasso (R-WV), Bob Corker (R-TN)

These three ended up on a tea party hit list circulated by Erick Erikson on Redstate yesterday. What the fuck have these two done to end up on here?

Christine O’Donnell for senate 2012.

Common you know you want to laugh.

Sleeper races

Herb Kohl (D-WI): Possible retirement

Seeing how Democrats got wiped out on Tuesday night with Russ Feingold being crushed by millionaire, stimulus hypocrite, pedophile priest protector Ron Johnson, the one bright side is that Herb Kohl is an institution and would win reelection in a walk. He’s old though and could retire in 2012. In that case expect a hard fought race to be fought by both sides to determine who succeeds Kohl.

Democratic congresswoman Tammy Baldwin could take a stab at it, hoping to become the first openly lesbian elected to the United States senate and her colleague, Ron Kind might take a stab at it as well. Russ Feingold’s probably off to teach political science at some university or something. Paul Ryan will probably not want to give up his gavel as head of the House Budget committee come January so you can count him out. Maybe Sean Duffy could attempt to become the first celebrity elected to the US Senate, if you count out Scott Brown’s nude cameo in Cosmo magazine.

Kent Conrad (D-ND): Possible retirement

The good news is that Kent Conrad doesn’t have to worry about John Hoeven anymore. He’s going to be his colleague in 2011. The GOP could make a push against Conrad, but they don’t have anyone of Hoeven’s statue on the horizon yet. Conrad’s still pretty young, Dorgan was older, but a retirement is not out of the question. If that happens, this seat is gone. Earl Pomeroy could attempt a political comeback, but he’s no spring chicken and even if he wins, he’ll be renting this seat for 1 maybe 2 terms at most.

Jeff Bingamen (D-NM): Possible retirement

Democrats lost the governorship and Harry Teague was defeated on Tuesday, but to be fair, Denish ran a poor campaign and couldn’t shake Bill Richardson off her. Harry Teague was in a hostile district and would have had a though challenge anyway. The good news is that Martin Heinrich survived a tough challenge in his Albuquerque centered district.

Jeff Bingamen is getting pretty old, he’s been in the senate a good thirty years so he could retire in 2012. If that happens, Democrats have a pretty deep bench here. Martin Heinrich comes immediately to mind here, which is one reason why Republicans made a concerted effort to knock him out. The best Republicans could come up with here is former Congresswoman Heather Wilson who lost a brutal primary to Steve Pearce to determine who would go up against Tom Udall in the race to succeed retiring Republican senator Pete Dominici. (Udall won by the way.)

Heather Wilson screams RINO here, and Democrats could be helped by a tea party candidate taking out Wilson. Heinrich would be helped by Obama at the top of the ballot anyway, so this race would be at worst tossup with a slight Dem lean. This is assuming the national climate will be better for Democrats in 2012.

Bob Menendez (D-NJ): Race to Watch

Menendez has never been too popular up in New Jersey, politicians actually have never been too popular up there. And he beat Tom Kean Jr. by only 9 points in 2006 in a bruising campaign in a good Democratic year. Menendez is still a strong favorite up here, but with Chris Christie having disarmed the New Jersey Democratic party and Adler going down, with Holt and Pallone escaping with the skins of their teeth on Tuesday, anything could happen.

Jon Kyl (R-AZ): Possible retirement

Jon Kyl is no spring chicken, and only won with 53% of the vote in 2006. So he could retire. Even then, Republicans will be a favorite to win here, especially if their not over their high with SB 1070 by 2012.

If Kyl retires, the eyes of the DSCC will turn onto Gabrielle Giffords who managed to survive Tuesday night. She’s also a rising star and scares the hell out of the GOP explaining why they’re so determined to knock her out before she can become a threat. Though Giffords will be under heavy pressure from the DCCC not to vacate her swing district so odds are she would take a pass unless the Republicans nominate a wack job or an idiot like Ben Quayle who’s only in congress because of the wave.

In that case, Terry Goddard would be the DSCC’s fall back option, or even Jim Peterson.

Richard Lugar (R-IN): Possible Retirement

Lugar’s a dying breed of senators, respected by both parties for his common sense and sage like wisdom on foreign affairs and nuclear arms is getting really old. If he runs again, which he says he would, he will win in a cakewalk. Democrats didn’t even care to field a challenger against him in 2006.

If he does choose to retire, Democrats would have a 35-40% chance of picking up his seat. In reality it would be 20% even in a neutral year. Obama could contest Indiana again, that all dependents on the national climate though.

Who could run? Well Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth, last seen being crushed by Dan Coats trying to keep Evan Bayh’s seat (thanks for nothing Bayh) blue could run here. The Republicans have a plethora of choices here. Mike Pence is going to run for governor, but could decide to run for the senate instead if Lugar retires. Seeing how Evan Bayh is preparing to be the next Jerry Brown.

But let’s not get too excited here, even if Lugar retires, Democrats face a steep, 89.9 degree hill to climb here. Even when the stars aligned for Obama, he only won Indiana by 1%, and that wasn’t known until the early morning after the election.

Its time to take the SSP race ranking machine down to California, one of the major battlegrounds of the 2010 midterm elections. Democrats in California are mostly playing defense while Republicans with Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina leading their ticket see a once in a generation opportunity to make inroads in a state which was the launching pad for GOP hero Ronald Reagan’s political career. Hopefully this will be the first in a set of diaries that will chronicle the fight for California’s statewide offices. Off to the rankings now!

Edit: Next edition of this diary will take into account the special election in Senate District 15 (Abel Maldonado’s old district) if the race is forced into a runoff.

California Governor

Candidates: Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) vs. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R)

Current ranking: Tossup

Last ranking: N/A

Right now, the job of being governor of California is not as prestigious as it once was. The governor has to deal with a legislature that is as dysfunctional as the United States Senate and has to make some very hard decisions when it comes to the budget. Yet two people are trying to become governor, Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. Right now the most important power the governor’s office has in the eyes of partisans is redistricting. If Jerry Brown wins the governor’s office, Democrats will have the opportunity to shore up Jerry McNerney which represents a swing district anchored in the Bay Area and Central Valley and have the opportunity to gerrymander a handful of Republican incumbents who’s districts Obama won in 2008 in even more hostile territory. If Meg Whitman wins, you could see the latest round of redistricting be more like in 2002 where Democrats choose to simply shore up incumbents from both parties instead of try to gerrymander GOP congressman into seats ripe for Democratic takeover.

A couple of months ago Jerry Brown was in the driver’s seat. Then Meg Whitman pulled either slightly behind, even, or slightly ahead of Jerry Brown’s in the polls thanks to the fact she could self fund to the tune of 90 million dollars. During the GOP primary she used her massive cash advantage to wage a scorched Earth campaign against her opponent, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner on the airwaves. (I should know, whenever you turned on the local news you always saw at least 5 Whitman ads an hour.) She held a double digit lead over Poizner for most of the campaign except for a few weeks where her poll numbers tanked over her ties to Goldman Sachs and opposition to Arizona’s immigration law but she pulled away at the end.

In the general election, Whitman shows no sign of slowing down. She went up with the first ad of the general election one day after winning the primary and expect the attack ads to go up by the end of the summer. And she pledges to spent at least $150 million of her own money on the general election.

Jerry Brown is quickly building up his warchest of $20+ million for the fall. He’s relying on the unions and independent groups to make sure Whitman does not have the airwaves to herself until he can go on the airwaves himself. The unions have already gone up on the airwaves with an ad attacking Whitman over not voting for 28 years. And the California Nurse’s Association itself is appearing at Whitman campaign events with an actor playing “Queen Meg” intending to mock Whitman.

Expect this race to be a dead heat until election day with Whitman’s ability to self fund to keep it close. Jerry Brown will have to make sure his allies and himself are not outspent by Whitman badly and hope the voters are turned off by the idea of another billionaire trying to buy their vote. And don’t expect Whitman to agree to debate Brown before the fall or maybe she’ll have a robot take her place.

United States Senate

Candidates: Senator Barbara Boxer (D) vs. Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R)

Current ranking: Lean Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

Barbara Boxer is facing a stiff challenge from Carly Fiorina who’s claim to fame is being fired from HP with a golden parachute. She even ended up in an Obama ad attacking McCain on CEO pay during the 2008 election. Also her campaign put out the “Demon Sheep” and “Hot Air” campaign ads which attacked Tom Campbell and Barbara Boxer respectively. Fiorina can also self fund, but she isn’t a billionaire like Meg Whitman is so she has to be a little more frugal with her money than Whitman can.

Republicans believe that Boxer is vulnerable because her approval ratings have never been that great and she can be polarizing at times. Indeed, Boxer would of been beatable if they GOP had nominated Tom Campbell instead of Fiorina who moved far to the right on the issues including the environment where she mocked Boxer’s work on climate change as simply “worried about the weather.” Even then, Boxer is no slouch when it comes to campaigning, she won a hotly contested race to succeed retiring Senator Alan Cranston by 5 points in 1992 and won by double digits in 1998 when she was expected to lose.

The race might be close right now, but expect Boxer to pull away in the coming months when the ads attacking Fiorina on her tenure at HP will be broadcasted all throughout California. She doesn’t have to go far either, HP’s headquarters is located in Silicon Valley. Even the granddaughter of one of HP’s founders said Fiorina nearly destroyed the company. And HP has made it clear who they support and it ain’t Fiorina.

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates: Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado (R) vs. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (D)

Current ranking: Tossup

Last ranking: N/A

Then State Senator Abel Maldonado was appointed by Governor Schwarzenegger to the position of Lieutenant Governor after John Garamendi resigned to fill the house seat of Ellen Tausher who moved up to the state department last year. Maldonado is more ideologically in sink with Schwarzenegger than your average Republican. Schwarzenegger and Maldonado enjoyed a good working relationship with each other especially when Maldonado cast the deciding vote to pass the budget last year. He also was responsible for getting Prop 14 onto the ballot which enjoyed bipartisan opposition by both Republicans and Democrats, but passed anyway. He is the first Republican to serve as Lt. Governor in over 30 years.

Maldonado is running for a full term this November, and managed to beat State Senator Sam Aanenstad who ran to his right in the primary by 12(!) points. An impressive margin seeing that Maldonado is a moderate, voted for a tax increase, angered his party over Prop 14 and working with Schwarzenegger who isn’t held with much esteem by the base these days. He now faces off against San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom in November. Newsom was running for governor, but after seeing that he had no chance in hell of beating Jerry Brown, decided to run for Lt. Governor instead hoping to do what Gray Davis did.

Maldonado has the advantage of incumbency, the fact he is a moderate and he’s an hispanic. It’s no coincidence he called Arizona’s immigration law “over the top.” Maldonado also was a farmer in the Central Valley, a region where Obama made substancial inroads in 2008 and where Republicans need to win big in order to have a chance statewide.

Newsom is well known among Californians for his work on gay rights and the environment. He’s also an advocate for San Francisco’s sanctuary city policy, something that he would be wise to use in order to prevent a large number of Hispanics from voting for Maldonado.

Attorney General

Candidates: San Francisco DA Kamala Harris (D) vs. Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley (R)

Current ranking: Tossup

Last ranking: N/A

In November, Californians will get to watch as San Francisco Giants DA Kamala Harris and Los Angeles Dodgers DA Steve Cooley face off at AT&T Park the ballot box to see who gets to succeed Jerry Brown. I’m defying conventional wisdom here right now by putting this race at a Tossup rather than Lean R which mostly everyone even the Harris supporters here would say. I concede that Steve Cooley’s ability to win in landslides in heavily Democrat LA county is something not to be dismissed easily, but both Harris and Cooley are not really known that well known outside the Bay Area (Harris) and LA County (Cooley). I do expect this race to move either in Cooley or Harris’ direction soon, but right now this is nothing less than a tossup.

Insurance Commissioner

Candidates: State Assemblyman Dave Jones (D) vs. (well we don’t even know yet)

Current ranking: Likely Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

The race to see who would succeed Steve Poizner as Insurance Commissioner went largely under the radar. Termed out State Assemblyman Dave Jones easily won the nomination and was the only one with the endorsement of the California Democratic Party and the only one who aired ads up here in the Bay Area. That’s not where the fun was though.

Two people ran for the GOP nomination for insurance commissioner, Assemblyman Mike Villines and Department of Insurance attorney Brian FrizGerald. Villines was the clear favorite, his opponent didn’t even spend the $5,000 that would trigger electronic reporting of campaign spending. Well on election night this was the result:

FrizGerald: 50.4%

Villines: 49.6%

And now with a bunch of provisional ballots counted:

Villines: 50.2%

FrizGerald: 49.8%

And there is still about 800,000 ballots left to count so its anyone’s guess who wins the nomination. Stay tuned for more.

Secretary of State

Candidates: Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D) vs. Damon Dunn (R)

Current ranking: Safe Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

Republican Damon Dunn had to beat back a fierce challenge from Orly Taitz, Queen of the Birthers! It was such a close election, Dunn only won by 49 points.

Anyway Debra Bowen is going to easily cruise to reelection. Dunn didn’t even care to vote until last year and this guy wants to be in charge of counting the votes? Please….

State Controller

Candidates: Controller John Chiang(D) vs. State senator Tony Strickland (R)

Current ranking: Safe Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

This a rematch of their 2006 race where Chiang beat Strickland by 10 points. (Yet GOPVOTER likes to say the election was somehow close). Strickland was convinced into doing a rematch by his good friend Meg Whitman. Question is, is Chiang going to win by a larger margin this time? Strickland has nothing to lose though, he’s up for reelection to the state senate in 2012.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Treasurer Bill Lockyer (D) vs. State Senator Mimi Walters (R)

Current ranking: Safe Democratic

Last ranking: N/A

Bill Lockyer, who has been in state government for longer since I’ve been alive is facing off against State Senator Mimi Walters. He’ll easily beat her and probably won’t have to spent much of his $8.6 million warchest to do it. He’s probably preparing himself for a run for governor when he’s termed out of the State Treasurer’s office.