In 2010, there was a major political disconnect in our messaging and voters weren’t willing to buy voting for a party where the candidate themselves even think their party is heading in the wrong direction. Shouldn’t be surprising, and having more solid Democratic districts outside of major metropolises is how we can expand our big tent party while having them actually feel like a part of the party. This project is aimed at creating districts where the Democrats are heavily favored without needing big city liberals to get them elected. You’ll notice I ignored doing any VRA districts in the South mainly because these possible districts get so widely talked about and redistricted here at SSP that I didn’t feel like doing something that has already been done.
I was going to add in Presidential numbers and go through that work, but then came three more projects to play with so I updated this with DRA 2.1 and called it a day. (I’ve been sitting on this for awhile, and some of you have seen this when I posted a draft on accident.)
Northern Minnesota Plus
This combines the Iron Range in the NE and west central MN, which are respectively the L and F in DFL. Throw in some American Indian reservations to connect the two and you’ve got yourself one of the largest districts in the country and I’d guess is approaching 60% Obama.
Southeastern Minnesota
Combines the southeastern farming areas (some more F in DFL), the towns along the St. Croix River (Updated and Mississippi River), Northfield, which has two very liberal private colleges, the city of Rochester (100k pop.) and then the current representative’s home in Mankato in the western end of the district. Moves from swing to lean Democrat on the Presidential level, and if Rep. Walz can survive in 2010, then it should be safe Dem for him in most cycles for decades to come.
Northeastern New York
This combines the Dem parts of the current NY-23 and NY-20 into a likely Dem district in a place now used to voting for Dems at the Presidential level but still has some local Republican flare. Rep. Owens will no longer need Doug Hoffman to win an election!
Syracuse, New York Plus
This district is one I question belonging since it isn’t that rural of a district considering it’s a central city with tendrils to other cities. But after going through some other states, I realized the goal is creating solid Dem seats in rural areas. So even though the Dem strength isn’t in the countryside for this district, the district is located where a solid liberal can be elected outside of a metropolis and just needs a gerrymandered mess to make it happen.
Western Wisconsin
Combines the extremely Democratic Lake Superior counties and then snakes down the border to catch up with the St. Croix River (Updated and Mississippi River), which creates many solid Dem river counties. Throw in Eau Claire for good measure and you’ve a got district that voted for Obama by 60%. This is a district that the GOP would want to create, as you can create a GOP leaning district out of the remains of WI-7 and WI-3, but you’d also be drawing Sean Duffy out his district.
Rural Colorado plus Fort Collins
Follows the path of Obama counties in rural Colorado, and then to get to population equity, I threw in Fort Collins. A previous permutation included Boulder instead of Fort Collins, but this way is probably better for doing a complete Dem gerrymander of the state.
Southeastern Ohio
Takes all the Democratic parts of OH-7 OH-6 and OH-18 and then includes the main population center of OH-16, Stark county. Includes all three former Democratic Congressmen’s homes so a fun battle royal could have ensued.
Southwestern Indiana
Likely Dem district made by combining Terre Haute in the north, Bloomington in the east, and Evansville to the south. Could have been another very fun three-way Dem primary.
Upper Peninsula plus Muskeogon
This district uses water contiguity generously by combining the UP with two blue counties on the east portion of the Lower Peninsula and then blue counties down the west side to connect to Muskegon. This is probably my favorite district in this project as its gerrymander is very simple but extremely effective. You could even trade the two eastern counties for more western ones to not make it seem as much of a stretch but I’ll save that for the MI legislature some day.
Lexington plus Eastern Kentucky
This one involved going through the Presidential performances of 2000, 2004, and 2008, as even beyond Obama imploding in Eastern Kentucky, there were a lot of shifts between all three cycles. The district that ended up being made was Lexington plus every county east of it that has voted Dem at least once since 2000 and then the least GOP we could get from there.
Central North Carolina
This is another district the GOP would want to create as a means to screw over either Rep. Kissel or Rep. McInytre as it combines all the Dem portions of both their current districts.
Western North Carolina
This creates an octopus with the city of Asheville as the center, snaking out to Dem cities and making Rep. Schuler quite safe and hopefully makes him go a little easier on Pelosi.
If you have better/more ideas, feel free to post them in the comments!
also make a more liberal wa-6
great, creative post
And I will bet you that GOP map-drawers are already looking at this thread.
I think you meant to say either the Mississippi or Minnesota River, not the St. Croix River (which ends right before Hastings at the north end of your Tim Walz district, and empties into the Mississippi, which continues the MN/WI border).
and was the subject of great outcry. People in the Iron Range and the farmers in NW MN view themselves as completely separate, and would be outraged to be placed in the same CD, both for cultural reasons, and for practical reasons. Western Minnesota is in a district by itself for agricultural reasons and the Iron Range is in its own district because of its mining industries. One of the two would lose its clout in Washington if they were combined.
If you really want to take out Cravaack, shedding Chisago County and Isanti County and adding Bemidji and/or St Cloud would do it, and wouldn’t anger half of Minnesota. That’s probably what will happen, anyway.
I think you mean OH-06 (Charlie Wilson/Ted Strickland district along the river) instead of OH-07 (David Hobson/Steve Austria district south of Columbus).
Your Michigan district made me smile, btw.
MN – this is exactly how the GOP would draw these districts this year. Your maps make MN-01 and MN-07 solid Dem while making MN-02 and MN-08 safe Rep. GOP will take this deal.
WI – same for Wisconsin. This makes WI-03 safe Dem but gives Sean Duffy a much safer seat. Republicans would draw this map in a heartbeat.
NY – St. Lawrence valley NYers would have a big problem being drawn into a district that goes south of Albany. Not going to happen. Same for the Syracuse district – Utica and Rome won’t be drawn in separate districts. You’d be better off drawing Ithaca into Syracuse’s district. Makes more sense but screws Maurice Hinchey. The current Syracuse-based district represented by Republican Ann Marie Beurkle is already D+3, so not sure of the need to screw with it further.
Indiana – seems to go against your ‘rural’ goal. Only reason it leans dem is urban areas of Evansville, Terre Haute, and Bloomington.
Kentucky – Ben Chandler already owns the Lexington-based district, so not sure why you’re screwing with it. The rapid reddening of KY may make this all a moot point in the futue anyway.
NC – expect republicans to do something similar with respect to Kissell and McIntyre to get rid of one of them. As far as the Asheville-based district…this will make whatever districts surround it look horrendous. Can’t see it happening.
But don’t like the Wisconsin District. Just like with Minnesota, it’s basically a GOP gerrymander. If Ron Kind survived last lear, he’s pretty much set for life in his current district. Plus it isn’t as Rural as it looks. Eau Claire, La Crosse, St. Croix, and Superior make up close to a good third of the population.
I like the idea of going into Oswego, Cortland and Auburn to form a coherent Central NY district, although Utica belongs with Rome and could be replaced by Cazenovia and Phoenix (Town of Schroeppel), which are both slowly turning into Syracuse suburbs, and some of the swingy rural areas around Auburn without harming the partisan lean too much and making the district much more compact. Either way, it’s much better than having Wayne County in that district – Wayne was by far the largest county not to vote for Gillibrand last year (and there weren’t too many of those), and provided all of Buerkle’s margin of victory and then some. Drawing Oneida into this district is also a good move, as it’s the hometown of State Sen. Valesky, who is pretty PO’d at the Democratic leadership in Albany and might like a promotion.
Your red district looks pretty Democratic, but it also crosses communities of interest. I personally would draw it into Jefferson County, which is a lean GOP area for now but seems to be following in the footsteps of St. Lawrence County, which borders it to the north, in becoming more Dem. (Jefferson County seems to prefer moderate GOPers right now; voters there supported Owens over Hoffman but Doheny over Owens, and couldn’t stand Paladino. It’s also Darrel Aubertine’s home base.) Adding Jefferson would enable you to cut out Troy, which is definitely not rural and forms part of the core of Tonko’s current district, and some Saratoga County suburbs that appear to be in the district, which aren’t all that Democratic to begin with other than the college town of Saratoga Springs. The end result would be a truly rural Dem seat that probably gave Obama around 56% of the vote and would be safe in most years.