What Would a Court-Drawn Missouri Map Look Like?

Missouri Republicans don’t look like they’ll be able to get their maps through. For whatever reason, the House and Senate are having trouble agreeing on maps. Since Democratic Governor Jay Nixon stands ready to fight back against a Republican map with his veto pen at hand, the chances that Missouri’s congressional map will ultimately be thrown to a court are rising.

Despite having little knowledge of Missouri (outside of a few visits to St. Louis), I decided to take a stab at what a court-drawn Missouri map might look like. I tried my best to ignore partisan considerations and incumbent residences and to focus on compact districts and communities of interest. I also tried not to hew too closely to the current map, as I believe it was drawn by Dems rather than a court (although I’m not 100% sure about that, since a court drew the current state legislative districts). I’m sure I made my fair share of mistakes along the way, so those with knowledge of Missouri politics are more than welcome to weigh in.

Anyway, here we go with the maps. (Note that the hoof, while not shown, is obviously in CD-07. And ignore the box in the southeast; DRA can be weird with Z-drag sometimes)

MO-03 Incumbent: Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth)

This district most closely resembles the current MO-04. However, it was somewhat of a “remainders” district and as such looks a bit weird compared to the others. Luetkemeyer lives here but would probably be happier in the 8th. Vicky Hartzler and some of her old territory (KC burbs, Warrensburg) have been drawn into the 5th, but she’s probably better off running here. As long as she makes it past the general, she’s safe in this heavily Republican district.

MO-05 Incumbent: Sam Graves (R-Tarkio), Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville)

The old MO-06. It becomes more KC-centric and draws together crazy freshman Vicky Hartzler and creepy zombie Sam Graves. Most of the territory currently belongs to Graves, so chances are he’ll run here while Hartzless…er, Hartzler moves to MO-03. Ike Skelton also lives here, but since lots of the territory is unfamiliar and he’ll be celebrating his 81st birthday not long after the 2012 elections, I don’t see him running.

MO-06 Incumbent: Billy Long (R-Springfield)

Little change from MO-07, remains a rock-ribbed Republican district based in Springfield and Joplin.

MO-07 Incumbent: Jo Ann Emerson (R-Cape Girardeau)

This district loses its western portion and moves north along the Illinois border, reaching all the way up to Jefferson County. It should still be strongly Republican, and Emerson is likely safe. Even the most well-funded theoretical Democratic recruits, such as 2010 nominee Tommy Sowers (who has been drawn into MO-03) and country singer Sheryl Crow, are probably too liberal to win here.

MO-08 OPEN

Compacts slightly into the northeast corner of the state. This district overlaps with the current MO-09 so Blaine Luetkemeyer would probably move here.

Now for the STL area.

MO-01Incumbent: Lacy Clay (D-St. Louis), Russ Carnahan (D-St. Louis)

This district expands to take in almost all of St. Louis and a bit more of St. Louis County. The tentacle in the middle looks a bit weird but adds a decent number of black voters. Lacy Clay (douchebag that he is) won’t mind this district despite how badly it screws over Russ Carnahan; it goes from 49.8% black to 49.9%, and its white population plummets from 46.9% to 41.7%. Additionally, its 18+ population has the narrowest of white pluralities (46.3-46.2, a difference of 402 people). I have no idea whether Russ Carnahan lives here or MO-02, but either way he has signaled that he will challenge Todd Akin rather than getting into a primary battle with Clay. (EDIT: Carnahan’s old state house district is located in this CD, so it’s probably fair to assume he lives here.)

MO-02 Incumbent: Todd Akin (R-Town and Country)

As mentioned above, Carnahan will likely move here if he doesn’t live here and run against Akin. Unfortunately, I figured a court would elect to throw the rest of STL County with St. Charles rather than Jefferson from a communities of interest perspective, but those with better knowledge of Missouri may question that (after all, I’ve never been further west in Missouri than Frontenac, so I don’t know jack, lol). Then again, the loss of Jefferson (which voted for whackadoodle Ed Martin by 20 points in 2010) doesn’t hurt nearly as much as the loss of most of St. Louis.

Partisan lean-wise, this district is obviously somewhere between the current MO-02 and MO-03; race-wise, it’s 89% white by total population (compared to 94% for the current MO-02 and 86% for the current MO-03). I think Carnahan would have a shot for sure, especially in 2012, but he’d be out the door in a minute in anything resembling a Republican year.

Now to finish up, here’s a closeup on KC.

MO-04 Incumbent: Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City)

This district is the old MO-05, except without any of Cass County. It adds the rest of Jackson County as well as about 70,000 people in Clay County to reach the required population. I suppose Cleaver could theoretically be vulnerable in a 2010 repeat with a stronger opponent than Jacob Turk, but this district will never be held by a Republican for more than 2 years because high turnout in KC during a presidential election means automatic Republican loss. This is all the more so because it drops Cass County, which voted 67-30 for Republican challenger Jacob Turk in 2010.

This district’s total population white % actually drops, though, from 69% to 65%. (Its black population drops too, however, from 24% to 22%; in exchange, its Hispanic population rises from 6% to 8%, and its Asian population goes from 1% to 2%).