My first stab at Congressional Resdistricting in Florida (Part 1: Panhandle and North Florida)

As a former Florida resident, I try to create a 27-district plan for Florida using Daves Redistricting App 2.0 with the 2010 population data.  I try to allow most major counties to have at least 1 district that’s totally within them.  If circumstances do not allow this, I will then keep counties whole as much as possible out of my good government instincts and to match the spirits of Florida’s Amendment 6 on congressional redistricting.  The only major exception is in my FL-3, designed to allow the Dems to keep a foothold in North Florida, and in the areas where my new districts are located (more of that covered under my districts).  Each of the district will also have a deviation from the ideal population per district of 696,341 by less than 1000 people, and the results can be seen as the following:

Overview- Northern half

Overview- Southern half

Panhandle

North Florida

Jacksonville Area

FL-1 (Rep. Jeff Miller, R- Chumuckla), Blue

This district now consists all four of the Panhandle’s westernmost counties (Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa and Walton), but retreats from most of Washington County and about one-third of Holes County.  Safe Republican.

FL-2 (Rep. Steve Southerland, R-Panama City), Green

Now dips into Holmes and Washington County.  It also takes Levy County from FL-5 and FL-6 and gain most of rural Alachua County from FL-6.  On the other hand, it is largely removed from Gadsden County and the city of Tallahassee.  Likely Republican.

FL-3 (Rep. Corrine Brown, D-Jacksonville), Purple

This is the new North Florida Democratic vote sink, and one of the few really ugly gerrymander here.  It spans from Gadsden County through Tallahassee; with one arm extending to the black areas of Jacksonville and the other extending into the city of Gainesville.  These areas are the only Democratic bastions in otherwise heavily GOP North Florida, and I feel that compact districts containing Gainesville, Tallahassee and black areas of Jacksonville would be fairly to heavily Republican.  On the other hand, this incarnation allows the Democratic votes in the Orlando area to be freed up.  They will be in my FL-27.  Rep. Brown should still be fine in this 43% black district, although she may face primary challenge from Gainesville or Tallahassee candidates like former State Sen. Al Lawson, who had unsuccessfully primaried then-Rep. Allen Boyd last year.  Likely Democratic.

FL-4 (Rep. Ander Crenshaw, R-Jacksonville), Red

This district is now more focused at the Jacksonville area.  It takes most of Duval County that’s not in FL-3 (minus a small southern sliver in FL-7), all of Nassau County and Northern half of Baker County.  The rural areas formerly attached to it are divided among FL-2, 3 and 6.  Safe Republican.

FL-6 (Rep. Cliff Stearns, R-Ocala), Teal



It unites Marion County (Stearn’s political base) with portions from the old FL-8, and also unites the very conservative Jacksonville suburb of Clay County with bits from the old FL-3.  These hubs are connected with a sliver of rural Alachua County.  It then extends South to take all of Sumter County and the Lady Lake (The Villages) portion of Lake County.  The real competition would be between a Clay County and a Marion County/The Villages Republican.  Safe Republican.

FL-7 (Rep. John Mica, R-Winter Park), Apple Green

While Rep. Mica’s home of Winter Park is drawn out of this district, it retains significant portions of his current constituency at St. Johns and Flagler counties.  It now includes all of Putnam and most of Lake (minus the Lady Lake area) counties, with small slivers in Duval, Volusia and Seminole counties (with no significant population centers in the latter two) just for population purposes.  Should be fine for Mica as long as he is willing to move.  In an open-seat scenario, expect a vigorous GOP primary between a St. Augustine and a Lake County candidate.  Safe Republican.

My partisan count for the seats so far are 5R, 1D.

Central Florida districts (FL-5, 8-12, 15, 24 and 27) up next.

31, Male, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)