Author: ECPolitico

Southwest Florida

FL-13 (Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Sarasota), Pale Pink

It gains retiree heavy, fairly conservative southern Hillsborough County suburbs and keeps DeSoto and Hardee counties.  All of Manatee County is now in this district.  The coastal (down to Siesta Key) and the politically moderate northern portions of Sarasota County remains here as well (For those unfamiliar with Sarasota County politics, areas north of Clark Road in Sarasota are generally considered less conservative, and HD-69 in Florida’s State House of Representative, held by Sarasota Democrat Keith Fitzgerald for two terms until his 2010 defeat, covers much of this territory).  The more suburban and conservative portion of Sarasota County and its Charlotte County portion are cast off to my new FL-26.  

It is the coastal bastions of Country-Club Republicanism in Manatee and Sarasota counties, the moderate portions of the city of Sarasota and the residual ethical questions with Buchanan that prevents me from calling this district Safe Republican, and Fitzgerald would be the only Democratic candidate who would be remotely competitive in this district.  Likely Republican.

FL-14 (Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-Fort Myers), Olive

It is removed from Charlotte County and loses a northeastern chunk of Lee County to FL-26, but reunites Collier County with the portion from FL-25.  Still one of the most Republican districts in the state.  Safe Republican.

FL-16 (Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Tequesta), Mint Green,

This is one of two districts I am least satisfied with (The other is my FL-26).  It now unites the Treasure Coast, taking Indian River County from FL-15 and portions of St. Lucie and Martin counties from FL-23.  It also loses most of Okeechobee County to FL-15 and its portion of Hendry County, plus parts of  Glades and Highlands (Lake Placid and parts of Sebring)  counties to FL-26.  Finally, it is totally removed from Charlotte County (also ceding its portion to FL-26).  With St. Lucie being the only swing county in this district, only a moderate Democrat hailing from there, possibly St. Lucie County Sheriff Ken Mascara, can make the race competitive.  Likely Republican.

FL-26 (NEW SEAT), Grey

Population growth in Southwest Florida is likely to result in one of the two new districts to be located in this area.  My FL-26 is such a district.  It takes all of Charlotte County (from FL-13, FL-14 and FL-16), the adjoining portions of Sarasota and Lee counties from FL-13 and FL-14 respectively.  It also takes most of Hendry County and parts of Glades and Highlands counties.  Expect a melee between Republicans from southern Sarasota County (like State Rep. Doug Holder, HD-70, R-Sarasota), Charlotte County (like former State Rep. Michael Grant, HD-71, R-Port Charlotte and State Rep. Paige Kreegel, HD-72, R-Punta Gorda) and Lee County (like former Lt. Governor Jeff Kottkamp) or even Highlands County.  Safe Republican.

My partisan count for this seats: 4R.

Overall partisan count so far are 14R, 3D, 2 swing.

South Florida seats (FL 17-23 and FL-25) up next.

31, Male, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

As a former Florida resident, I try to create a 27-district plan for Florida using Daves Redistricting App 2.0 with the 2010 population data.  I try to allow most major counties to have at least 1 district that’s totally within them.  If circumstances do not allow this, I will then keep counties whole as much as possible out of my good government instincts and to match the spirits of Florida’s Amendment 6 on congressional redistricting.  The only major exception is in my FL-3, designed to allow the Dems to keep a foothold in North Florida, and in the areas where my new districts are located (more of that covered under my districts).  Each of the district will also have a deviation from the ideal population per district of 696,341 by less than 1000 people, and the results can be seen as the following:

Overview- Northern half

Overview- Southern half

Panhandle

North Florida

Jacksonville Area

FL-1 (Rep. Jeff Miller, R- Chumuckla), Blue

This district now consists all four of the Panhandle’s westernmost counties (Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa and Walton), but retreats from most of Washington County and about one-third of Holes County.  Safe Republican.

FL-2 (Rep. Steve Southerland, R-Panama City), Green

Now dips into Holmes and Washington County.  It also takes Levy County from FL-5 and FL-6 and gain most of rural Alachua County from FL-6.  On the other hand, it is largely removed from Gadsden County and the city of Tallahassee.  Likely Republican.

FL-3 (Rep. Corrine Brown, D-Jacksonville), Purple

This is the new North Florida Democratic vote sink, and one of the few really ugly gerrymander here.  It spans from Gadsden County through Tallahassee; with one arm extending to the black areas of Jacksonville and the other extending into the city of Gainesville.  These areas are the only Democratic bastions in otherwise heavily GOP North Florida, and I feel that compact districts containing Gainesville, Tallahassee and black areas of Jacksonville would be fairly to heavily Republican.  On the other hand, this incarnation allows the Democratic votes in the Orlando area to be freed up.  They will be in my FL-27.  Rep. Brown should still be fine in this 43% black district, although she may face primary challenge from Gainesville or Tallahassee candidates like former State Sen. Al Lawson, who had unsuccessfully primaried then-Rep. Allen Boyd last year.  Likely Democratic.

FL-4 (Rep. Ander Crenshaw, R-Jacksonville), Red

This district is now more focused at the Jacksonville area.  It takes most of Duval County that’s not in FL-3 (minus a small southern sliver in FL-7), all of Nassau County and Northern half of Baker County.  The rural areas formerly attached to it are divided among FL-2, 3 and 6.  Safe Republican.

FL-6 (Rep. Cliff Stearns, R-Ocala), Teal



It unites Marion County (Stearn’s political base) with portions from the old FL-8, and also unites the very conservative Jacksonville suburb of Clay County with bits from the old FL-3.  These hubs are connected with a sliver of rural Alachua County.  It then extends South to take all of Sumter County and the Lady Lake (The Villages) portion of Lake County.  The real competition would be between a Clay County and a Marion County/The Villages Republican.  Safe Republican.

FL-7 (Rep. John Mica, R-Winter Park), Apple Green

While Rep. Mica’s home of Winter Park is drawn out of this district, it retains significant portions of his current constituency at St. Johns and Flagler counties.  It now includes all of Putnam and most of Lake (minus the Lady Lake area) counties, with small slivers in Duval, Volusia and Seminole counties (with no significant population centers in the latter two) just for population purposes.  Should be fine for Mica as long as he is willing to move.  In an open-seat scenario, expect a vigorous GOP primary between a St. Augustine and a Lake County candidate.  Safe Republican.

My partisan count for the seats so far are 5R, 1D.

Central Florida districts (FL-5, 8-12, 15, 24 and 27) up next.

31, Male, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

Here’s my belated analysis of last November’s results on selected Florida legislative races:

State Senate:

SD8 (Dem Target)

Deborah Gianoulis, the Dem candidate is well-known and decently funded.  However, Sen. John Thrasher is a household name in state GOP circles (he’s one time state house speaker and more recently, a caretaker state GOP chair), his incumbancy and the First Coast (St. Augustine, Jacksonville etc.) district’s GOP-lean is enough for him to hold on comfortably.

SD14 (Dem Target)

The Dem candidate here, Perry C. McGriff Jr. is a former one-term from state representative from  Gainesville.  He may be white and more moderate than Ed Jennings, the 2006 candidate and also from Gainesville.  However, incumbent Steve Olerich is a former Alachua County (Gainesville) Sheriff, and the district’s makeup mean that a Gainesville Dem is a liability in the rural portions of the district, unless he/she is a Rod Smith-type law-and-order candidate.  As the rural parts of the district (including rural Alachua outside Gainesville, which contributed to the ouster of an incumbent Dem County Commissioner, covered in a upcoming diary) turned hard right and the two candidates shared the Alachua County base, the Dem was held to a narrow victory there while losing some rural counties at a 2-1 margin, enabling Oelrich to hold on by 54%-46%

SD16 (GOP Target)

Sen. Charlie Justice’s ill-fated challange to US Rep. Bill CW Young for CD10 left this open seat highly vulnerable.  The GOP’s candidate, former Sen. Jack Latvala is relatively moderate, has high name ID and extremely well-funded (he’s the ex-husband of Pinellas County Commissioner Susan Latvala). He probably represented about the same area in his previous tenure (Please confirm this).  On the other hand, the Dem picked Nina Hayden, a young AA female and a first-term Pinellas County School Board member.  Her woeful fundraising capability, thin resume, race (sort of) and Alex Sink’s underperformance in the Tampa Bay area mean that Hayden never stood much chance.  And Latvala returned to the State Senate in the biggest landslide of all prominent State Senate races last year.

SD25 (Dem Target) and SD27 (GOP Target)

The Tea Party surge in coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties has probably undermined the Dem’s offensive effort at the legislative seats there. While this is the most GOP-friendly area in South Florida outside Cuban portions of Miami-Dade county, the GOPer’s tends to be strongly pro-business but socially moderate.  However, as fiscal issues became salient during last November, the GOP/Tea Party coalition were able to ride the popular dissent to unseat US Rep. Ron Klein in CD22 and undermine the supposedly solid effort from State Rep. Kelly Skidmore to take now-CFO Jeff Attwater’s open seat.  The GOP victor, Ellyn Bogdanoff, is admittedly a powerful State Rep. from coastal Broward and extremely well-funded as well.  More of the same happened in HD91 (Bogdanoff’s open seat) and Borard County Commission District 4 (more on that in a later diary).

As for SD27, this heavily gerrymandered seat formed with leftover parts of various counties happened to be the the most swingy State Senate seat. Campaigns there are mainly fought at two fronts, the Dem-heavy western Palm Beach County and the GOP-friendly eastern Lee County.  When Dave Aronberg (my former State Sen.)faced Lee County GOPer’s in his races, his is able to win the Palm Beach portion hands down (by 2-1 to 3-1) and hold the GOPer to a narrow margin in the Lee portion.  In last year, however, both candidate a bites are from the Palm Beach portion, thereby undercutting the advantage for the Dem candidate  (one-term State Rep. Kevin Rader)quite a bit (less than 2-1).  Coupled with the highly energized GOP

vote in SW Florida (Lee Conty), where the GOP candidate, former Wellington Councilwoman Lizbeth Benacquisto won by more than 2-1; and a controversial ad from Rader’s camp attacking Benacquisto’s opposition to abortion rights using her history as a rape victim that deemed to be off-putting for many female voters, the GOP was finally able to pick up this marginal seat that eluded two Lee County pols (County Commissioner Frank Mann and freshman State Rep. Matt Caldwell from HD73) with a Palm Beach candidate.

State House:

HD11 (GOP Target)

The Dem incumbent Debbie Boyd seemed to a victim of her HD’s hard turn to the right and suffered some spillovers from US Rep. Allen Boyd’s ouster from CD2 (In Suwannee and Lafayette Counties situated in HD11, where he got whipped by now US Rep. Steve Southerland)  She has, however, lost every county in the district (even in the Alachua county portion, supposedly the most Democratic part of that HD).  The right turn in rural Alachua, together with a GOP candidate with an elected office significant geographical base (Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter) cause a GOP pickup to materialize.

HD’s 44,47,57 and 60 (Dem Targets)

These three suburban Hillsborough County seats (plus one primarily Hernando County seat) are among the most prominent Democratic targets in the State House, and all feature semi-serious to serious Dem candidates.  Two of them (in HD’s 47 and 60), however, faced well-known/legacy GOP opponents and the third (HD57) has her own baggage, and a forth (HD44) faced an incumbent in more hostile territory than the other 3.

In HD44, former Hernando County Commissioner Diane Rowden is supposed to be a formidable candidate with strong local roots.  However, the circumstances behind her ouster in 2008 has probably left a bitter taste in the voters’ mouth, and Hernando County’s turn to the hard right under GOP’s chair Blaise Ingoglia’s influence is a huge drag on her campaign.  Together with portions of Sumter (itself a hard-right county dominated by older voters) and Pasco (also undergoing a rightward turn), incumbent Rep. Robert Schenck didn’t have to sweat for a 3rd term.

In HD47, the GOP candidate James Grant is the son of former State Sen. John Grant and he is able to take advantage of this connection (and the district’s GOP-tilt?) to carry the day over the supposedly well-funded Dem Michael Steinberg.

In HD57, connection to a local political scion seem to work the other way.  Stacy Frank, the Dem candidate is the daughter of well-liked former County Commissioner and current Clerk of the Circuit Court in Hillsborough County Pat Frank.  She is well funded and is supposedly competitive in a open-seat situation in a swing district.  Her work as a lobbyist behind the construction of cell phone towers on school grounds, however, seems to attract a dedicated cadre of opponents.  Together with the backlash against the “(Democratic) legacy candidate label” and Alex’s Sink under performance in the county, all these contribute to her loss to Dana Young, a GOP stay-at-home mom.

In HD60, the GOPer is former Tampa City Councilman Shawn Harrison.  He has the name recognition, elected political experience and geographical base to his advantage in his race against Dem Russ Patterson, and holds the open seat for his party comfortably.

(Can jncca, author of the bellweather county diary featuring Hillsborough County, Florida look up which towns do HD’s 47, 57 and 60 contain and help me to determine the political complexion there?  Thanks!)

HD’s 51 and 52 (GOP Targets)

This pair of neighboring Pinellas swing seats are the most remarkable of the 5 GOP’s pickups (all by defeating incumbents) in the state house, as they occur in territories probably carried by Alex Sink in her gubernatorial race.  Both Dem incumbents have two terms under their belt, but each committed a cardinal sin to enable GOP pickups.  

In Rep. Janet Long’s case (HD51), a controversial ad featuring her son, a decorated veteran, questioning GOP candidate Larry Ahern’s military credentials seems to have backfired, while Rep. Bill Heller’s campaign in HD52 seems to be caught asleep until it’s too late to stem GOPer Jeff Brandes surge.

HD’s 69 (GOP Target) and 73 (Dem Target)

In this pair of SW Florida seats, Rep. Keith Fitzgerald’s ouster from Sarasota’s HD69 proved to be the most painful for the House Dems, as his is an extremely smart professor from the New College of Florida and is pretty well-regarded for a Dem in a GOP-heavy (albeit politically moderate)region.  His GOP opponent, Ray Pilon, is no slouch either; as he is a former Sarasota County Commissioner.Pilon’s experience, geographical base together with Rick Scott’s coattail in SW Florida worked to pip him to the top by the 2nd narrowest margin among the GOP pickups (only Jeff Brandes’s is narrower, and HD52 is believed to be a tilt Dem district, while HD69 is tilt GOP)

In Cole Peacock, the Dems has the most serious State House candidate for a Lee County seat in years.  However, the Scott coattail and Lee County’s GOP lean proves too much for even a business-friendly Dem like Peacock to overcome, allowing Dave Aronberg’s 2008 GOP opponent in the SD27 race, Matt Caldwell to become the new Rep. after Nick Thompson vacated the least Republican seat in Lee County to pursuit a Circuit Court Judgeship.

HD’s 81 (GOP Target) and 83 (Dem Target)

In this pair of Treasure Coast/Northern Palm Beach swing seats, both Dems (incumbent Rep Adam Fetterman in HD81 and open seat challeger Mark Marciano in HD83) are well-funded.  In HD81, however, the foreclosure crisis seems to enable the rise of Tea Party sentiment and former State Rep. Gayle Harrell was able to capitalize on the GOP lean of the Martin County portion to regain her old seat, inflicting one of the only 2 double-digit defeats among the 5 Dem incumbent ousted (Only Debbie Boyd’s margin of loss is larger)

In HD83 vacated by Carl Domino due to his unsuccessful State Senate candidacy, the GOP candidate Pat Rooney is independently wealthy.  Hailing from the family owning Pittsburgh Steelers and being a brother of US Rep. Tom Rooney from CD16 (which overlaps with parts of HD83) don’t hurt either, and all these translates into a easy GOP hold.

HD’s 87 and 91 (Dem Targets)

These marginal coastal Palm Beach-Broward seats are supposedly ripe for Dems’ pickling in open situations.  However, the Dem’s frequet change of candidates in HD87 (due to the pursuit of neighboring, more Democratic HD86 by their original challenger Lori Berman due to Ted Deutsch election to CD19 and Maria Sach’s ascent to SD30); coupling with an experienced GOP candidate (former Boca Raton City Councilman Bill Hager); translates this into another easy GOP hold.

In HD91, while both GOPer George Moraitis and Dem

Barbra Anne Stern are political newcomers and serious candidates, the coattails from CD22 and SD25 proved to be enough for Moraitis to breeze through.

HD’s 112, 115, 117, 119 (Dem Targets)

Any path for the Dems to achieve relative parity with the GOP in the State House runs through open Hispanic-held seats in Miami Dade County; and they have to bank on generational shifts among Cuban Americans, as younger Cubans may be less obsessed with hard-line policies on Cuba and more focused on economic justice issues faced by many Hispanics.  In last November, Marco Rubio’s US Senate candidacy seems to cause these Democratic efforts to become naught, as he seems to cause the Hispanic voter turnout in Miami Dade to tilt older, Cuban and more conservative.

At least in HD112, the Dems has a candidate with elected experience in Doral City Councilwoman Sandra Ruiz, and she actually carried the Broward portion of the district.  However, her GOP opponent Jeanette Nunez dominated in the far more populous Miami Dade portion of this HD by about 2-1 and carried the day by the virtue of this margin.

Lisa Lesperance in HD117 is decently funded, but she runs in one of the most Republican Hispanic district outside Hialeah, and GOPer Michael Bileca held the seat vacated by Julio Robaina easily.  The same can be said for Jeffrey “Doc” Solomon in HD115, plus he has an ethnicity problem by running as a white candidate in a 65% Hispanic (2000 census figure) district, allowing Jose Felix Diaz to breeze through as the GOP candidate.

The most heart-breaking loss among these Democratic offensive efforts falls to Katie Edwards, a youthful executive director of the Dade County Farm Bureau.  She ran a well-funded campaign in the least Hispanic and least Republican seats held by a Hispanic GOP Rep (HD119).  However, she also ran into ethnicity problem in a 64.5% Hispanic district (2000 figures)  by being a white candidate, allowing GOPer Frank Artiles to succeed Juan Zapata, the first Colombian-American in the Florida State House.

HD’s 107 and 120 (GOP Targets)

Former State Rep. Gustavo A. Barreiro falls barely short in his effort to wrest his old seat from his successor, incumbent Dem Rep. Luis Garcia.  Garcia is probably saved by his least Republican Hispanic -Majority HD in Miami Dade, his extensive civic bond  in Miami Beach and his Cuban ethnicity.

The GOP tried to claim the scalp of the incoming Democratic leader Ron Saunders with former Key West Mayor Morgan J. McPherson.  Their efforts falls well short, as Saunders carried Monroe County handily even though he lost the Miami Dade County portion.  His political savvy from his previous service at the State House also helps.

One last not-so-competitive, but interesting race:

The Dems targeted HD26 opened up by Pat Patterson’s failed CFO candidacy by running  former deputy superintendent of Volusia County schools Tim Huth, banking on his civic ties to create a pickup opportunity.  However, in Ormond Beach Mayor Fred Costello, the GOP got its trump card with a candidate who has a political base locally and easily holds this open seat.

Conclusion:

It seems that in the recession-plagued Sunshine State, fiscal issues and job creation are in the forefront of voters’ minds, and the average Florida suburbanite’s anti-tax and pro-business sensibilities seem to prevail over concerns about the anti-immigration, service-cutting and socially conservative rhetorics form November’s crop of GOP legislative candidates, giving the GOP veto-proof majorities for the 1st time since Reconstruction.  

My only complaints are that voters seems to be ignorant to hypocritical when it comes to check and balance; as they seem to exercise that desire only against the party they oppose (National Dems) and see no problems when the party they favor dominates at the state and/or local level (Florida’s GOP).  Can anyone explain this irony? And please with my lengthy diary.  Thanks!

31, Asian American male, Dem-tilting Independent, FL-19 (former), MS-02 (present)

sd 8 14 25 16 27 HD 47 57 60 112 115 117 119 73 91 83 87 51 52 11 69 81

As an impartial observer, I am really saddened by the extent the national GOP wave trickled into certain local races in Florida (I sat out this mid-term as elections in MS-02, where I’m living now is ultra-uncompetitive due to its obvious demographics), as it seems many voters allows their identification with the GOP and anger with Washington to cloud their judgement on state legislative and local races, conveniently ignoring the fact of longtime GOP control of the state legislature and certain county commissions.  The result:  A 28-12 GOP majority in the State Senate and a 81-39 GOP majority at the State House of Representative, the first veto-proof ones for the GOP since the Reconstruction.  Together with the all-GOP incoming cabinet, they will have unfettered power in the Sunshine State for the next four years.

Rant over, and here my list of the affected local races.  My second part of this series will deal with my takes on select legislative races and the geopolitical implications on the partisan makeup of the upcoming State Legislature.

In a few counties, notably in Tampa Bay and its environs, at least eight incumbent county commissioners seemingly lost only due to them being Dems – a cardinal sin in the eyes of the most stridently partisan GOP voters this year.  Here are the casualties (In alphabetical order of the counties):

Alachua County – Veteran local pol Cynthia M. Chestnut upset by GOP candidate Susan Baird at 54%-46%, largely due to rural and small-city voter backlash against the dominant Gainesville Dems.  These voters had a higher turnout compared to the Gainville voters on Nov 2.  Baird is the first GOP Commissioner in 22 years.

Broward County – Freshman Commissioner and County Mayor Ken Keechl was upset by Lighthouse Point Commissioner and former Broward GOP chair Chip LarMarca  by 49.8%-45.0%, with almost 5.2% taken by Chris Chiari, a former Democrat and two-time HD-91 candidate.  (HD-91 covers many of the coastal communities in County Commission District 4)  Admittedly, Broward’s County Commission was 9-0 Democratic since Keechl’s election in 2006 and LaMarca’s victory simply re-introduce a GOP voice to a overwhelmingly Dem body.  Keechl may also be hurt by the split Dem vote due to Chiari’s presence on the ballot, and the up-ticket coattails from CD-22, SD-25 and HD-91 (All contains some or all of these coastal communities in this District, and the GOP won all three races).  Finally, coastal Broward county is probably the most Republican part of Broward county due to the affluence of many residents there, and the District might be tough for Keechl to hold even in a more neutral year.  

Hernando County – GOP powerbroker and county GOP chair Blaise Ingoglia has finally completed his goal of removing Dems from the County Commission, after defeating Commissioners Diane Rowden and Chris Kingsley in 2008, an otherwise good year for Florida’s Dems.  Commissioner Rose Rocco lost her District 2 race to Wayne Dukes at about 60%-40%.  Looks like the most active voters tends to be GOP-leaning seniors.  With the county’s economy in dire straits, Ingoglia’s anti-tax/spending and pro-development messages seem to get really receptive ears.  As a result, the County commission is 100% GOP.  The Supervisor of Elections and Tax Collector are the only partisan elected county positions still held by Dems today, and the incumbents must feel lucky that they were not on the ballot two weeks ago.

Marion County – The only Dem in the County Commission, Barbara Fitos was defeated at about 49%-35% by GOPer Carl Zalak III, with two other candidates taking about 16% of the votes.

Pasco County

Pinellas County

Polk County

St. Lucie County

In addition, two well-respected former Tampa City Council members fall well-short in their bids