Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
351 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Please let this thing be over with!
…who grumbled when i brought up the problem of “the media” the events around rep-elect allen west and joyce kauffman should be a real wake up call. if you saw the video of her rantings on the news you saw what ron klein was up against for the past two years. any dem who steps up to challenge west in ’12 is going to face the same thing. this is a problem in most of the country. if the dems don’t learn to at least use what media they have that is somewhat fair to them the dem cause is always going to be a uphill battle. there, i said it, let the moaning and groaning begin!
If any of yall are interested in helping with the Republican counterpart to SSP, please e-mail me @ jmlee0695@hotmail.com. I figured that now that we are reaching a low point as far as election season goes, now would be the best time to start working on it so we can be up and running for when 2012 starts ramping up.
If any of yall are interested in helping with the Republican counterpart to SSP, please e-mail me @ jmlee0695@hotmail.com. I figured that now that we are reaching a low point as far as election season goes, now would be the best time to start working on it so we can be up and running for when 2012 starts ramping up.
will it be called? how about the “one party state project”!
Interesting article about how Granholm and company after 8 years of economic misery.
Gov. Granholm projects Michigan job growth … next year
If they’ve actually hit rock bottom after a loss of 600k or so jobs during Granholm’s tenure, well, looks like Rick Snyder got really lucky.
The commission is going to shake this map up and I think we are in for some surprises. I anticipate as many as 5-10 competitive races here in 2012.
Will he be a good DCCC head?
Come in for a late session, passing a bill that gives the governor veto authority over Congressional redistricting.
That could potentially save Democrats as many as thre House seats.
I believe Governor Florio of New Jersey did something like this in 1991 after Republicans took control of the legislature.
Cant believe Democrats havent thought of this.
But this article, while primarily about President Obama’s chances, does make some points that are particularly relevant to discuss here:
First, most elections are about voter optimism (or lack thereof). Low optimism is usually the result of the economy doing poorly, and so people want to “throw the bums out.” We pollsters call such elections “change elections,” which favor the party out of power. In contrast, when optimism is high, voters want “more of the same,” or continuity. Continuity elections favor the party in power. Our own studies of hundreds of elections around the world show that about 80 percent of all elections can be classified according to this simple “change versus continuity” dichotomy, with the other 20 percent depending on the effectiveness of campaigns and the power of personalities.
The 2010 electoral cycle, with the poorest performing economy in a generation, was a change election which favored the party out of power – the Republicans. This means that there was no fundamental shift in American values, or a “new Republican mandate,” but instead that the election was the result of the natural ebbs and flows of voter sentiment, driven by larger economic forces.
Indeed, our polling shows that policy specifics tend to take on only secondary or tertiary roles in voter calculus compared to simple pocketbook issues and associated relative degree of optimism. Of course it isn’t always about the economy – events like wars, scandals, and other unforeseen wildcards do play a role in defining voters’ desire for change or continuity. The economy, though, typically is the most consistent factor, with the 2010 midterm elections being no exception.
I think the real imponderable is how economic improvement would affect the chances for the Republicans to keep the House. If voters don’t want change, maybe incumbents and incumbent parties at all levels will be reelected in unusually higher numbers. In that situation, it may be that even extremist incumbents could be reelected in large percentages, with the seats changing parties being almost all open seats due to retirements, et al.
I am already worried, since the Democrats didn’t hold any of the marginal Senate seats in 2010 and are likely to have a 26-24 majority. I was really hoping they would go into 2012 with 28 Senate seats.
So much depends on the new map, but there are easily 5 Dem incumbents in the Iowa Senate who could be in trouble. If Jack Kibbie retires in SD 4, it would be a very tough hold for us.
I know it’s too early to predict the political climate in 2012. By that time the economy could be worse than now, and there could be buyer’s remorse on Branstad. But I know there will be tons of out of state money again because of the marriage equality issue, and I am not confident about Democrats’ ability to defend their marginal seats.
In the Iowa House, where Republicans will have a 60-40 majority, I only see a few low-hanging seats for Democrats to take back. Again, a lot depends on the new map, but I can see it taking the better part of a decade to claw our way back to a majority. So frustrating.
Incoming Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen named all his committee chairs this week. He passed over a few people with a decade or more of experience and gave chairmanships to 11 state representatives who were first elected in either 2006 or 2008. Remarkable.
It appears that Paul Hodes lost NH-02 by a 57%-40% margin.
Kirk won IL-10 53%-43%.
Ellsworth lost IN-08 52%-43%.
Melancon lost LA-03 58%-37%.
Boozman won AR-03 68%-26%.
Maes under 10% yet? The BOE hasn’t posted any updates and it looks like no one else is either.
It seems like Solomon Ortiz has probably lost to Blake Farenthold in TX-27, but did you know that his son, Solomon Ortiz Jr., is a state representative from Corpus Christi who also lost his reelection? I feel really sorry for the Ortiz family with both the father and son losing their reelection bids in the same year…
I am still shocked that Farenthold won though, I was not expecting this seat to flip at all. Was turnout in the Valley really low or did Farenthold actually make inroads with a lot of Hispanic voters? I think he will be very vulnerable in the future when Hispanic turnout is higher, even redistricting can only help him that much.
Doheny picks up 1,982 votes and Owens picks up 362 votes in the canvassing of the votes in Fulton county. Owens still leads by 1,795 votes with only 2,000 absentee ballots left to count but this shouldn’t be happening weeks after the election and should’ve been checked right after the election. Seems like in this district one election district was reported where multiple districts took place.
Why in New York do they wait weeks before they do the official canvassing.
Buerkle and Maffei picked up votes in Wayne County’s canvassing the other day as well. And in the 60th district senate race you had new votes appearing.
Then you have the bishop race where it really changed things by swinging a net 4,000 in that race. At least that was a few days after the election.
Please answer the following questions about incoming members of Congress.
1. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to be President or Vice President?
2. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to serve as Governor of a state?
3. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to serve as Senator?
4. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to leave office in disgrace?
5. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to serve as Speaker, Majority Leader or Whip?
6. Which Congressperson elect is going to serve the longest out of the incoming class?
7. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to be defeated in a rematch?
Feel Free to list more than one member for each question. Enjoy!
My answers.
1. I’ll be honest I do not think any will be elected Prez or VP. I suppose I could see a few running but I don’t think I can answer my own question.
2. Daniel Webster-He’s already served as state speaker and I think he’ll likely run in eight years. Just my hunch.
3.A David Cicilline- Once Reed steps down I think he’ll run.
B Kristi Noem- I think she’ll run in four years. Not sure if we’ll keep the seat or not, but I think we can pick up her CD if Sandlin runs again.
4. David Rivera-Duh.
5. Rough, I’ll say Nan Hayworth just for the heck of it.
6. Tom Reed- Young and I think he’ll be around for a while to come.
7. Charlie Bass- Any chance he doesn’t even run for another term? From all I’ve heard his heart wasn’t really in it this time even. Hard to imagine how he wins in a neutral year.
thing that surprised me this election was the closeness of SC Gov. Who would have thought it was going to be a four point margin. Could we have won had we pumped more resources there? Or had Greene not won the primary for Senate would that have helped? What can Sheehan run for in the future? I REALLY like the guy and want to see him get something down the road. Had it not been for the year I think it’s safe to say he’d be Governor-elect right now.
it seems like Pennsylvania is going to give us six or seven seats post-redistricting. If we had a Democratic gerrymander, how many seats would we hypothetically get?
These are both possible retirements. In NH, who an we expect to run on both sides? In NC, if Perdue retires,who would the dems run? Will McCrory face a tough Rep primary?
Some digging through opensecrets and I’ve come up with this list (through the pre-general reports, anyway, the post-election ones aren’t up yet). It doesn’t take into account outside spending, which obviously helped a few of these candidates.
Incumbents:
1. Todd Platts (PA-19) – $206,709
2. Rob Bishop (UT-01) – $224,135
3. Roscoe Bartlett (MD-06) – $273,808
4. Tim Johnson (IL-15) – $314,454
5. Jose Serrano (NY-16) – $315,412
Open seats:
1. Rob Woodall (GA-07) – $317,228
2. Rich Nugent (FL-05) – $424,285
3. Frederica Wilson (FL-17) – $434,477
4. Bill Huizenga (MI-02) – $591,028
5. Steve Womack (AR-03) – $607,605
Challengers:
1. Chip Cravaack (MN-08) – $284,043
2. Hansen Clarke (MI-13) – $375,512
3. Blake Farenthold (TX-27) – $379,224
4. Joe Walsh (IL-08) – $465,661
5. Bill Johnson (OH-06) – $499,802
Cheapest Senate victory:
Mike Lee (Utah) – $1,470,383
I wish I had a link to this. But I was watching the news today and Cravaack was giving an interview. He expressed his firm support for unionizing Delta (A HUGE political issue here, where the (former)Northwest Airlines employees are a significant portion on the population). He also expressed openness to the dreaded “Cardcheck” bill.
This honestly makes me wonder if he will get teabagged in 2012. Those are 2 pretty politically charged positions to have in today’s Republican Party.
Looks like Buerkle is up 567 votes after Wayne County reports. Maffei has the option to request a full hand recount but hasn’t made a decision yet. My prediction is that Maffei concedes Tuesday next week.
anyone know how much supreme court justice K C Kimball won by in 2002? i’ve been sifting through the SOS’s great site, but can’t find it. any help obliged.
This is buried deep down in this Roll Call article on New Hampshire, but Annie Kuster has already told the state party that she’s running again in 2012.
AG Cuccinelli wanted to raise the filing fees for Republican candidates, while Bolling was strongly against it. Bolling won. Round I of the 2013 Gov primary?
I know most people dismissed their polls. Maybe ya’ll were wrong. They were the only pollster to poll IL-08, finding a tie in February right after Walsh won the primary, and Walsh +3 on October 31. In IL-10, they were the only pollster to ever show Dold with a lead. Their last IL-11 poll was off by only 2 pts, off by 1 pt in IL-14, and 1 pt in IL-17.
Please let this thing be over with!
…who grumbled when i brought up the problem of “the media” the events around rep-elect allen west and joyce kauffman should be a real wake up call. if you saw the video of her rantings on the news you saw what ron klein was up against for the past two years. any dem who steps up to challenge west in ’12 is going to face the same thing. this is a problem in most of the country. if the dems don’t learn to at least use what media they have that is somewhat fair to them the dem cause is always going to be a uphill battle. there, i said it, let the moaning and groaning begin!
If any of yall are interested in helping with the Republican counterpart to SSP, please e-mail me @ jmlee0695@hotmail.com. I figured that now that we are reaching a low point as far as election season goes, now would be the best time to start working on it so we can be up and running for when 2012 starts ramping up.
If any of yall are interested in helping with the Republican counterpart to SSP, please e-mail me @ jmlee0695@hotmail.com. I figured that now that we are reaching a low point as far as election season goes, now would be the best time to start working on it so we can be up and running for when 2012 starts ramping up.
will it be called? how about the “one party state project”!
Interesting article about how Granholm and company after 8 years of economic misery.
Gov. Granholm projects Michigan job growth … next year
http://www.mlive.com/business/…
If they’ve actually hit rock bottom after a loss of 600k or so jobs during Granholm’s tenure, well, looks like Rick Snyder got really lucky.
The commission is going to shake this map up and I think we are in for some surprises. I anticipate as many as 5-10 competitive races here in 2012.
Will he be a good DCCC head?
Come in for a late session, passing a bill that gives the governor veto authority over Congressional redistricting.
That could potentially save Democrats as many as thre House seats.
I believe Governor Florio of New Jersey did something like this in 1991 after Republicans took control of the legislature.
Cant believe Democrats havent thought of this.
But this article, while primarily about President Obama’s chances, does make some points that are particularly relevant to discuss here:
I think the real imponderable is how economic improvement would affect the chances for the Republicans to keep the House. If voters don’t want change, maybe incumbents and incumbent parties at all levels will be reelected in unusually higher numbers. In that situation, it may be that even extremist incumbents could be reelected in large percentages, with the seats changing parties being almost all open seats due to retirements, et al.
What do you think, this far out?
from being drawn out of their seats?
http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/…
I am already worried, since the Democrats didn’t hold any of the marginal Senate seats in 2010 and are likely to have a 26-24 majority. I was really hoping they would go into 2012 with 28 Senate seats.
So much depends on the new map, but there are easily 5 Dem incumbents in the Iowa Senate who could be in trouble. If Jack Kibbie retires in SD 4, it would be a very tough hold for us.
I know it’s too early to predict the political climate in 2012. By that time the economy could be worse than now, and there could be buyer’s remorse on Branstad. But I know there will be tons of out of state money again because of the marriage equality issue, and I am not confident about Democrats’ ability to defend their marginal seats.
In the Iowa House, where Republicans will have a 60-40 majority, I only see a few low-hanging seats for Democrats to take back. Again, a lot depends on the new map, but I can see it taking the better part of a decade to claw our way back to a majority. So frustrating.
Incoming Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen named all his committee chairs this week. He passed over a few people with a decade or more of experience and gave chairmanships to 11 state representatives who were first elected in either 2006 or 2008. Remarkable.
It appears that Paul Hodes lost NH-02 by a 57%-40% margin.
Kirk won IL-10 53%-43%.
Ellsworth lost IN-08 52%-43%.
Melancon lost LA-03 58%-37%.
Boozman won AR-03 68%-26%.
Maes under 10% yet? The BOE hasn’t posted any updates and it looks like no one else is either.
It seems like Solomon Ortiz has probably lost to Blake Farenthold in TX-27, but did you know that his son, Solomon Ortiz Jr., is a state representative from Corpus Christi who also lost his reelection? I feel really sorry for the Ortiz family with both the father and son losing their reelection bids in the same year…
I am still shocked that Farenthold won though, I was not expecting this seat to flip at all. Was turnout in the Valley really low or did Farenthold actually make inroads with a lot of Hispanic voters? I think he will be very vulnerable in the future when Hispanic turnout is higher, even redistricting can only help him that much.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/p…
http://www.watertowndailytimes…
Doheny picks up 1,982 votes and Owens picks up 362 votes in the canvassing of the votes in Fulton county. Owens still leads by 1,795 votes with only 2,000 absentee ballots left to count but this shouldn’t be happening weeks after the election and should’ve been checked right after the election. Seems like in this district one election district was reported where multiple districts took place.
Why in New York do they wait weeks before they do the official canvassing.
Buerkle and Maffei picked up votes in Wayne County’s canvassing the other day as well. And in the 60th district senate race you had new votes appearing.
Then you have the bishop race where it really changed things by swinging a net 4,000 in that race. At least that was a few days after the election.
Please answer the following questions about incoming members of Congress.
1. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to be President or Vice President?
2. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to serve as Governor of a state?
3. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to serve as Senator?
4. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to leave office in disgrace?
5. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to serve as Speaker, Majority Leader or Whip?
6. Which Congressperson elect is going to serve the longest out of the incoming class?
7. Which Congressperson elect is most likely to be defeated in a rematch?
Feel Free to list more than one member for each question. Enjoy!
My answers.
1. I’ll be honest I do not think any will be elected Prez or VP. I suppose I could see a few running but I don’t think I can answer my own question.
2. Daniel Webster-He’s already served as state speaker and I think he’ll likely run in eight years. Just my hunch.
3.A David Cicilline- Once Reed steps down I think he’ll run.
B Kristi Noem- I think she’ll run in four years. Not sure if we’ll keep the seat or not, but I think we can pick up her CD if Sandlin runs again.
4. David Rivera-Duh.
5. Rough, I’ll say Nan Hayworth just for the heck of it.
6. Tom Reed- Young and I think he’ll be around for a while to come.
7. Charlie Bass- Any chance he doesn’t even run for another term? From all I’ve heard his heart wasn’t really in it this time even. Hard to imagine how he wins in a neutral year.
thing that surprised me this election was the closeness of SC Gov. Who would have thought it was going to be a four point margin. Could we have won had we pumped more resources there? Or had Greene not won the primary for Senate would that have helped? What can Sheehan run for in the future? I REALLY like the guy and want to see him get something down the road. Had it not been for the year I think it’s safe to say he’d be Governor-elect right now.
it seems like Pennsylvania is going to give us six or seven seats post-redistricting. If we had a Democratic gerrymander, how many seats would we hypothetically get?
http://twitter.com/jmartpoliti…
Good news for Allen.
These are both possible retirements. In NH, who an we expect to run on both sides? In NC, if Perdue retires,who would the dems run? Will McCrory face a tough Rep primary?
Some digging through opensecrets and I’ve come up with this list (through the pre-general reports, anyway, the post-election ones aren’t up yet). It doesn’t take into account outside spending, which obviously helped a few of these candidates.
Incumbents:
1. Todd Platts (PA-19) – $206,709
2. Rob Bishop (UT-01) – $224,135
3. Roscoe Bartlett (MD-06) – $273,808
4. Tim Johnson (IL-15) – $314,454
5. Jose Serrano (NY-16) – $315,412
Open seats:
1. Rob Woodall (GA-07) – $317,228
2. Rich Nugent (FL-05) – $424,285
3. Frederica Wilson (FL-17) – $434,477
4. Bill Huizenga (MI-02) – $591,028
5. Steve Womack (AR-03) – $607,605
Challengers:
1. Chip Cravaack (MN-08) – $284,043
2. Hansen Clarke (MI-13) – $375,512
3. Blake Farenthold (TX-27) – $379,224
4. Joe Walsh (IL-08) – $465,661
5. Bill Johnson (OH-06) – $499,802
Cheapest Senate victory:
Mike Lee (Utah) – $1,470,383
I wish I had a link to this. But I was watching the news today and Cravaack was giving an interview. He expressed his firm support for unionizing Delta (A HUGE political issue here, where the (former)Northwest Airlines employees are a significant portion on the population). He also expressed openness to the dreaded “Cardcheck” bill.
This honestly makes me wonder if he will get teabagged in 2012. Those are 2 pretty politically charged positions to have in today’s Republican Party.
Looks like Buerkle is up 567 votes after Wayne County reports. Maffei has the option to request a full hand recount but hasn’t made a decision yet. My prediction is that Maffei concedes Tuesday next week.
Link
http://www.syracuse.com/news/i…
Her campaign is so bad that politico ran an article about her failure. How can an campaign be that horrible?
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
One chooses not to even approach the gate.
anyone know how much supreme court justice K C Kimball won by in 2002? i’ve been sifting through the SOS’s great site, but can’t find it. any help obliged.
This is buried deep down in this Roll Call article on New Hampshire, but Annie Kuster has already told the state party that she’s running again in 2012.
Link: http://www.rollcall.com/issues…
http://www.rollcall.com/issues…
Sorry, no pics.
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
AG Cuccinelli wanted to raise the filing fees for Republican candidates, while Bolling was strongly against it. Bolling won. Round I of the 2013 Gov primary?
I know most people dismissed their polls. Maybe ya’ll were wrong. They were the only pollster to poll IL-08, finding a tie in February right after Walsh won the primary, and Walsh +3 on October 31. In IL-10, they were the only pollster to ever show Dold with a lead. Their last IL-11 poll was off by only 2 pts, off by 1 pt in IL-14, and 1 pt in IL-17.
http://www.newsday.com/long-is…