12-4 Ohio Gerrymandering

Abridged write up:

One VRA district in Cleveland (that I got to 50%+1)

All incumbents are kept in their homes.

Wilson’s and Boccieri’s districts are combined. So are Kucinich’s and Sutton’s.

Let me know what you think. Will post more data later.

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12 thoughts on “12-4 Ohio Gerrymandering”

  2. trying to figure out which of the 13 current republican representatives get left out of this map?

    Or are we assuming Jordan runs for US senate in 2012?

    I think the basic concept of this Map will hold.

    You can draw a map with just 4 democratic seats.

    Then because there is two seats to be lost the republicans have to carve up someone’s seat.  

    The two easiest and best to curve up would be Jordan’s #4–its centrally located and its heavily republican. Heavily republican is key because his seat borders on three freshman who would love to get juicy parts of the district that are very conservative.

    The other district that would be easy to carve up would be Boehner’s 8th district.  Its very republican and easy to cut up.

  3. CD1 – This is a hideous gerrymander, and one that ensures that Chabot will stick around after 2012.  Safe R.

    CD2 – It looks like you’ve thrown in more of Cincinnati into CD2, as well as some swingy/democratic territory like Hocking and Athens counties.  This district’s PVI is probably down to about R+7 or R+8 as drawn, which could put Mean Jean Schmidt into trouble, especially in a strong democratic year.  Schmidt really causes the GOP some headaches because a generic republican would probably easily hold this seat. Lean R.

    CD3 – Boehner’s district is still very red.  Safe R.

    CD4 – I wonder about CD4 a bit, especially if Jim Jordan were to leave this seat open.  Marion County is trending democratic, Clark County is a swing county, and you’ve thrown in an awful lot of Franklin County too, where Columbus is turning into Cleveland South for the Democrats.  This seat probably still leans R, but a good D candidate in a good year could win this one.

    CD5 – I don’t know where I come out on this one.  You’ve got plenty of Columbus in there along with some democratic-leaning river counties.  Also, the republican counties there, with the exceptions of Licking and Washington, aren’t THAT republican.  This one’s a swinger.

    CD6 – Mike Turner is universally beloved in Dayton and this district is little changed.  Safe R.

    CD7 – The farm reaches of the blood-red west central probably make this one impossible for Team Blue, but Wood and Sandusky were carried by Obama (and Strickland), and the counties in the northwest corner like Defiance, Williams, and Henry, are quickly turning blue as well.  By decade end this one could be within reach.

    CD8 – There’s some of Franklin here, but most of the other counties are blood red.  Safe R.

    CD9 – Again, a lot of Columbus area balanced by hugely red counties.  Richland and Delaware counties are two counties that appear to be turning somewhat toward the democrats but there’s still a long way to go.  This one’s probably likely R barring a strong democratic candidate and a good year nationally for Team Blue.

    CD10 – Now this seat is interesting.  You have blue-leaning river counties balanced with republican-leaning ones in the middle of the state.  Stark, Jefferson, Mahoning, Tuscarawas, and Belmont were all carried by Obama and most of these were also carried by Strickland.  I’m guessing this one’s probably a toss-up, just like CD5.  

    CD11 – The heart of this district is very republican, in Medina, Wayne, and Ashland counties.  Some of the other regions are swingy but I’d say this one’s a safe R seat.

    CD12 – Safe D

    CD13 – Safe D

    CD14 – This is the most intriguing district on the board.  It’s basically a redo of Betty Sutton’s current district, with Akron and Elyria pulled out, but with more of Cleveland and it’s inner west suburbs added.  My guess is that this seat is still democratic leaning, maybe D+4 or D+5, but the republicans could win it in a strong year for their side.  Ideally, they would probably like to move this seat farther out into Medina/southern Lorain, maybe Wayne, and avoid some of the really democratic parts of Cuyahoga, but in doing so CD11 would have to suck up republican territory from CDs 4, 9, and 10, possibly putting them into the blue column.  

    CD15 – Safe D

    CD16 – This is probably an even PVI seat now thanks to greater portions of Summit and Trumbull counties being added in.  Steven LaTourette would probably hold it well, but if it were to come open this seat could easily flip.

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