New York Incumbent Protection Gerrymander.

Played around with the redistricting app and tried my hand on the most probable scenario (even if my exact approach is improbable). New York loses two seats and the split legislature tosses one Republican and one Democrat to the curb while  giving every remaining incumbent a partisan advantage.

The two casualties are Republican freshman Ann Marie Buerkle upstate and Carolyn McCarthy in Long Island.

The nice thing about New York being so Democratic is that it is easy to find someones hometown and make a Democratic district no matter where it was.  The challenge was of course creating VRA districts and making sure districts upstate were pro-McCain.

I used old information from wikipedia, and new information from the app.  Except upstate where there was no Obama/McCain information.

CD 1 – Old CD 1

Incumbent: Tim Bishop

Old Obama/McCain vote: 51-48

New Obama/McCain vote: 55-45

Old Demographics: 89.3% White, 4.3% Black, 2.4% Asian, 7.5% Hispanic.

New Demographics: 76% White, 7% Black, 2% Asian, 13% Hispanic.

Comments: Territory is swapped between Bishop and Israel.  This puts Bishop in better shape but creates ugliness as areas have to be swapped around to protect Israel.

CD 2 – Old CD 2

Incumbent: Steve Israel

Old Obama/McCain vote: 56-43

New Obama/McCain vote: 56-43

Old Demographics: 78.4% White, 10.4% Black, 3.0% Asian, 13.9% Hispanic

New Demographics: 73% White, 11% Black, 4% Asian, 10% Hispanic

Comments: Only real concern is Steve Israel’s home of Huntington is right on the line where Ackerman’s district is.  The district sprawls to desperately take in Democratic votes with the sprawl of Ackerman’s district saving it from becoming Republican.

CD 3 – Old CD 3

Incumbent: Peter King

Old Obama/McCain vote: 47-52

New Obama/McCain vote: 47-52

Old Demographics: 94.2% White, 2.1% Black, 0.8% Asian, 2.3% Hispanic

New Demographics: 87% White, 2% Black, 3% Asian, 7% Hispanic

Comments: This district shows how difficult it is making a partisan district in Long Island.  You have to cross a lot of Democrats to get to the Republicans.  But that actually isn’t quite it.  The real problem is population balancing.  I could’ve taken in more Republican’s from Ackerman’s district but that makes it highly difficult to keep a black majority in Gregory Meeks district.  But given McCain’s weakness in 2008 only having a 52% McCain vote actually keeps him pretty safe.

CD 4 – Old CD 5

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman

Old Obama/McCain vote: 63-36

New Obama/McCain vote: 57-43

Old Demographics: 55.7% White, 5.6% Black, 24.6% Asian, 23.5% Hispanic

New Demographics: 66% White, 12% Black, 8% Asian, 11% Hispanic

Comments: You probably think Ackerman represents Queens and you’d be correct.  But he lives in Roslyn Long Island and that is useful for our purposes.  This district sprawls to take away Republican votes from Israel, Democratic votes from King, and non-Black votes from Meeks.  It’s ugly due to it being a “swiss knife” district that does everything.

CD 5 – Old CD 6

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks

Old Obama/McCain vote: 87-11

New Obama/McCain vote: 57-43

Old Demographics: 18.9% White, 53.9% Black, 9.0% Asian, 16.9% Hispanic

New Demographics: 15% White, 52% Black, 8% Asian, 17% Hispanic

Comments: With the growth of the Hispanic community getting a black majority district becomes tougher.  Luckily this district still had a strong enough African-American segment to create one that was pretty compact.

CD 6 – Old CD 7

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley

Old Obama/McCain vote: 79-20

New Obama/McCain vote: 65-34

Old Demographics: 45.1% White, 18.7% Black, 12.9% Asian, 35.9% Hispanic,

New Demographics: 44% White, 6% Black, 25% Asian, 22% Hispanic

Comments: Crowley gets abused as the needs of others around him including the need to eat some of Ackerman’s Republicans and Nydia taking some of his hispanics.  If the seat were to become vacant that 25% Asian number might become very relevant in a crowded primary.

CD 7 – Old CD 14

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney

Old Obama/McCain vote: 78-21

New Obama/McCain vote: 79-20

Old Demographics: 73.1% White, 5.2% Black, 11.4% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic

New Demographics: 58% White, 8% Black, 9% Asian, 21% Hispanic

Comments: The victim of some choices I made.  Such as (only slightly) expanding Nadler’s territory in Manhattan and giving Rangel the non-white north of her district.  With Nadler limited by Nydia’s sprawling majority hispanic district and Crowley already having the area of Queens where he lives pressed there was no choice but to take in some of the Bronx.  I’ll explain my reasoning on Rangel’s district when I get to it.

CD 8 – Old CD 12

Incumbent: Nydia Velázquez

Old Obama/McCain vote: 88-13

New Obama/McCain vote: 81-19

Old Demographics: 39.5% White, 10.9% Black, 16.0% Asian, 48.5% Hispanic

New Demographics: 21% White, 7% Black, 19% Asian, 50% Hispanic

Comments: This ugly district is amazingly enough similar to the current one.  However I made sure it wasn’t split in two by Nadler (hence the moving of his portion of the district and his expansion in Manhattan).  Took a lot of work and some ugly angles but I got the hispanic vote over 50.

CD 9 – Old CD 10

Incumbent: Ed Towns (retiring)

Old Obama/McCain vote: 91-9

New Obama/McCain vote: 83-16

Old Demographics: 21.0% White, 63.0% Black, 2.7% Asian, 17.2% Hispanic

New Demographics: 24% White, 42% Black, 6% Asian, 24% Hispanic

Comments: Making Nydia district contiguous hispanic majority while having two neighboring districts that needed a black majority put pressure on this district.  Particularly since it put pressure on where other districts had to go.  And given Ed Towns was retiring this district became the last district created essentially out of what was left.  However it still has an overwelming black plurality and should still elect an African-American office holder.  And thus hopefully meets the requirements of the VRA.

CD 10 – Old CD 11

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke

Old Obama/McCain vote: 91-9

New Obama/McCain vote: 93-7

Old Demographics: 24.9% White, 61.2% Black, 4.2% Asian, 12.1% Hispanic

New Demographics: 22% White, 55% Black, 5% Asian, 14% Hispanic

Comments: Still black majority and not all that different from before.

CD 11 – Old CD 9

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner

Old Obama/McCain vote: 55-44

New Obama/McCain vote: 60-40

Old Demographics: 71.0% White, 4.4% Black, 14.6% Asian, 13.6% Hispanic

New Demographics: 58% White, 19% Black, 11% Asian, 9% Hispanic

Comments: Weiner gets a safer more compact district on his home turf of southern Brooklyn.

CD 12 – Old CD 13

Incumbent: Michael Grimm

Old Obama/McCain vote: 48-52

New Obama/McCain vote: 45-54

Old Demographics: 76.8% White, 6.9% Black, 9.2% Asian, 11.0% Hispanic

New Demographics: 74% White, 6% Black, 7% Asian, 11% Hispanic

Comments: The Brooklyn rabbis went for Michael McMahon in large part because they like to back a winner.  Now that Grimm is in the drivers seat they should have no problem supporting him.  Even against a possible rematch with McMahon.

CD 13 – Old CD 8

Incumbent: Jerry Nadler

Old Obama/McCain vote: 74-26

New Obama/McCain vote: 85-14

Old Demographics: 74.6% White, 6.1% Black, 11.1% Asian, 11.7% Hispanic

New Demographics: 59% White, 6% Black, 15% Asian, 17% Hispanic

Comments: Nadler’s district shifts in three ways.  First it takes the white gentrified southern sections of Rangels districts.  Second it takes in a few more blocks shaving off a portion of Maloney’s Manhattan portion of her district.  And last the district has a small compact portion across the Williamsburg Bridge that doesn’t do even weirder stuff in Nydia’s district.

CD 14 – Old CD 15

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel

Old Obama/McCain vote: 93-6

New Obama/McCain vote: 94-5

Old Demographics: 28.2% White, 34.6% Black, 2.9% Asian, 47.6% Hispanic,

New Demographics: 9% White, 34% Black, 2% Asian, 53% Hispanic

Comments: These changes accept two realities. First that there are sections Harlem that are now white and that you might as well lop off a minority district and give to a white liberal like Nadler.  And that this district is now a Latino rather than an African-American one.  The hispanic vote is augmented with Spanish Harlem as well as a larger swarth of the Bronx.

Hopefully it also encourages Rangel to finally do the right thing and call it a career.

CD 15 – Old CD 16

Incumbent: Jose Serrano

Old Obama/McCain vote: 95-5

New Obama/McCain vote: 93-7

Old Demographics: 20.4% White, 36.0% Black, 1.8% Asian, 62.8% Hispanic

New Demographics: 7 White, 28% Black, 3% Asian, 62.8% Hispanic 59

Comments: With Engel’s district moving south and Rangel’s moving east Serrano eats up some of Crowley’s Bronx.

CD 16 – Old CD 16

Incumbent: Eliot Engel

Old Obama/McCain vote: 72-28

New Obama/McCain vote: 79-21

Old Demographics: 48.9% White, 32.3% Black, 4.6% Asian, 20.4% Hispanic

New Demographics: 35% White, 33% Black, 4% Asian, 25% Hispanic

Comments: Last redistricting Engel was seen as a “victim” being stuck in a non-majority white district.  It turned out he was not all that vulnerable.  At only 35% white this could change.  But no one group has a majority and that isn’t necessarily bad news for a long time incumbent.

Given Engel lives in the Bronx and that most of New York’s population loss is upstate it’s inevitable that he’ll continue to see more of Westchester taken out of his district.

CD 17 – Old CD 18

Incumbent: Nita Lowey

Old Obama/McCain vote: 62-38

New Obama/McCain vote: 62-37

Old Demographics: 67.1% White, 10.0% Black, 5.3% Asian, 16.2% Hispanic

New Demographics: 70% White, 10% Black, 6% Asian, 13% Hispanic

Comments: Nita Lowey’s (as well as Paul Tonko’s is to be pacman and eat up Republican votes.  Creating McCain districts isn’t easy even upstate.  Funny thing is that even though eastern upstate districts are ugly they aren’t all that much worse than the ugly job the legislature did 10 years ago.

CD 18 – Old CD 19

Incumbent: Nan Hayworth

Old Obama/McCain vote: 51-48

New Obama/McCain vote: 48-51

Old Demographics: 88.1% White, 5.4% Black, 2.2% Asian, 7.7% Hispanic

New Demographics: 84% White, 4% Black, 2% Asian, 8% Hispanic

Comments: As I had Nita grab portions of Hayworth’s district to grab Democratic votes along the Hudson you got a “corridor” along the east from Ann’s house to the Republican rural areas supporting her.  But debatably not as ugly as the work I did supporting Chris Gibson.

CD 19 – Old CD 22

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Old Obama/McCain vote: 59-39

New Obama/McCain vote: 59-39

Old Demographics: 80% White, 8% Black, 3% Asian, 8% Hispanic

New Demographics: 84% White, 6% Black, 3% Asian, 5% Hispanic

Comments: First the “old Obama/McCain” and “demographics” came from a second instance of Dave’s app since there were no Obama numbers on wikipedia.

Hinchey’s district stays similar losing a few Republican areas, taking in a few Democratic areas and perhaps taking in an area or two it shouldnt just to balance out it’s population.

CD 20 – Old CD 21

Incumbent: Paul Tonko

Old Obama/McCain vote: 58-40

New Obama/McCain vote: 60-38

Old Demographics: 86% White, 7% Black, 2% Asian, 3% Hispanic

New Demographics: 83% White, 8% Black, 2% Asian, 4% Hispanic

Comments: Again old information is from app rather than wikipedia.

This used to be the one “nice” district upstate in terms of aesthetics.  Not anymore as it sweeps north and south to help Gibson and Hayworth.

CD 21 – Old CD 20

Incumbent: Chris Gibson

Old Obama/McCain vote: 51-48

New Obama/McCain vote: 48-50

Old Demographics: 94% White, 2% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic

New Demographics: 93% White, 2% Black, 1% Asian, 3% Hispanic

Comments: Again all data is non-wiki.  And again Chris Gibson gets his house and a bunch of rural Republican areas in his district very dirty.

CD 22 – Old CD 24

Incumbent: Richard Hanna

Old Obama/McCain vote: 50-48

New Obama/McCain vote: 48-50

Old Demographics: 93% White, 3% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic

New Demographics: 92% White, 3% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Comments: Again no wiki upstate data.  This was one of the ugliest districts which is now a lot more compact and nice.  In part due to the good luck Hanna being in the eastern part of the district.

Hanna takes the Republican votes that Owens doesn’t want.

CD 23 – Old CD 23

Incumbent: Bill Owens / Ann Marie Buerkle

Old Obama/McCain vote: 52-47

New Obama/McCain vote: 59-39

Old Demographics: 94% White, 2% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic

New Demographics: 88% White, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Comments: Upstate, wikiless, etc.

What happens when you combine Syracuse and north country?  Bad things if you’re Freshman Republican named Ann Marie Buerkle.  Given her hometown is a Democratic stronghold it was just too tempting to draw her out.  Plus if any Republican goes it is going to be a freshman.

CD 24 – Old CD 29

Incumbent: Tom Reed

Old Obama/McCain vote: 48-50

New Obama/McCain vote: 45-53

Old Demographics: 93% White, 3% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Hispanic

New Demographics: 84% White, 2% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Comments: Upstate, wikiless.

Large rural district becomes more solidly Republican as Higgins lets go of more Republican areas.

CD 25 – Old CD 26

Incumbent: Chris Lee

Old Obama/McCain vote: 47-52

New Obama/McCain vote: 46-52

Old Demographics: 92% White, 3% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Hispanic

New Demographics: 94% White, 2% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Comments: wikiless.

As you can see the four western New York districts are now more ergonomic and compact as incumbent protection is less messy out there.

CD 26 – Old CD 28

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter

Old Obama/McCain vote: 68-30

New Obama/McCain vote: 58-40

Old Demographics: 63% White, 28% Black, 1% Asian, 5% Hispanic

New Demographics: 78% White, 13% Black, 2% Asian, 5% Hispanic

Comments: wikiless

The Lake Ontario dome is lost and the Fairport New York native gets a full Rochester based district.  Giving all of Buffalo loses her some Democratic support but she’s still on very solid ground.  And it helps along the process of cutting Ann Marie Buerkle out.  And makes Higgins seat a little less swingy in case of vacancy.

CD 27 – Old CD 27

Incumbent: Brian Higgins

Old Obama/McCain vote: 54-44

New Obama/McCain vote: 58-40

Old Demographics: 89% White, 4% Black, 1% Asian, 5% Hispanic

New Demographics: 78% White, 13% Black, 2% Asian, 5% Hispanic

Comments: wikiless.

Higgins seat becomes a little more Democratic which can be useful given Republican gains in the area and the fact the seat was previously held by Republicans.

Finaly Thoughts:

This redistricting is of course unlikely for no other reason than it messes with the borders of districts too much.  And new boundaries encourage challenges which no politician wants.

This redistricting was done with a “protect all incumbents” agenda. Which was rather ugly in the case of Nan Hayworth who I hope we don’t go out of our way to protect as I see that seat as winnable.  Less optimistic about the rest of the upstate seats.  In case you want to play with this redistricting attempt the drf file for Dave’s application.

http://www.mediafire.com/?kd4n…

12 thoughts on “New York Incumbent Protection Gerrymander.”

  1. I like it. I’m hoping they flip the senate or hold off redistricting but if they don’t then this looks like a likely alternative. Meeks would HATE it though. If the right candidate ran he could have a semi competitive race given his  very bad ethical issues.  

  2. Can’t believe Higgins didn’t get a more serious challenge this year, considering his seat is only 54% Obama and how well the GOP did in Buffalo in other races.

    One note: I believe Weiner lives in Queens, and that you drew him into Towns’ or Crowley’s district. I’m sure he would move, though, especially for a safer district like this.

  3. I think we can see still the state senate changing of hands thanks to appointments or other things. I hope we can have a more democratic map (after see only two republicans in the congressional delegation until november would be so hard for me see seven republican incumbents from New York with R+4 to R+7 districts.

    If I’m not wrong you draw a 27 seats map making dissapear the current NY-25 (Buerkle R) and NY-05 (McCarthy D). I think the NY-25 is the first district to disappear after the results of the last elections. I think you take the right way here. For a 28 seats map I think would be not reasons for destroy a seat in the area of New York City having the weak NY-25.

    At least I would like to see a little less safe the republican seats and a little more safe the democratic seats of Long Island (D+5 58% Obama would be the right level for me).

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