This is my second attempt at a Texas GOP gerrymander. In a good year for the GOP, it will be 26-10, but in a neutral year I expect 25-11. All GOP seats are safe.
NOTE: There is a sliver going into Bryan to pick up Flores’ home.
VRA is complied–one new Hispanic seat in McAllen area and one new seat in Dallas area. Population are all at +/-500ish, but some are more (up to 2000) but I don’t have time to fix all of them…
The plan:
TX-1
Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)
Obama: 30%
McCain: 69%
Old District (Obama-McCain):
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-2
Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)
Obama: 35%
McCain: 635
Old District (Obama-McCain):
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-3
Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)
Counties: Collin
Cities of Note: Plano, Allen, Frisco, Wylie, McKinney
Obama: 38%
McCain: 61%
Old District (Obama-McCain):Projected: Safe Republican
The district is completely based in Collin County, which has grown tremendously. Johnson is safe and will be succeeded by a conservative Republican if he retires.
TX-4
Incumbent: Ralph Hall (R-Rockwell)
Obama: 31%
McCain: 68%
Old District (Obama-McCain):
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-5
Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)
Obama: 36%
McCain: 63%
Old District (Obama-McCain):
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-6
Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)
Obama: 38%
McCain: 62%
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-7
Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-The Villages)
Obama: 42%
McCain: 57%
Projected: Safe Republican
NOTE: 59% White, 26% Hispanic
TX-8
Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)
Obama: 30%
McCain: 69%
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-9
Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)
Obama: 75%
McCain: 24%
Old District (Obama-McCain):
White: 18 Black: 36 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 12 Native American: 0 Other: 1
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-10
Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)
Obama: 35%
McCain: 66%
Projected: Safe Republican
Seeing how Montgomery County has grown tremendously since 2000, I split it up into two districts to help McCaul. The district loses some precincts in Austin and Harris County. If I were a Republican (I’m not), I’d feel pretty good about McCaul until 2020.
TX-11
Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)
Obama: 24
McCain: 75
Projection: Safe Republican
NOTE: 27% Hispanic
TX-12
Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)
Obama: 37%
McCain: 62%
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-13
Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)
Obama: 29%
McCain: 70%
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-14
Incumbent: Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)
Obama: 37%
McCain: 62%
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-15
Incumbent: Ruben Hinjosa (D-Mercedes)
Obama: 48%
McCain: 51%
White: 30 Black: 2 Hispanic: 67 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Lean Democratic
TX-16
Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)
Obama: 65%
McCain: 34%
White: 18 Black: 3 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-17
Incumbent: Bill Flores
Obama: 35%
McCain: 64%
Old District (Obama-McCain):
TX-18
Incumbent: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)
Obama: 84%
McCain: 16%
White: 17 Black: 49 Hispanic: 29 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-19
Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock)
Obama: 25%
McCain: 74%
Projected: Safe Republican
NOTE: 29% Hispanic
TX-20
Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)
Obama: 62%
McCain: 37%
White: 24 Black: 5 Hispanic: 68 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1
Projected: Safe Democratic
The district gets more Hispanic and more Democratic. Gonzalez should be, and will be, fine.
TX-21
Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)
Obama: 38%
McCain: 61%
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-22
Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)
Obama: 39%
McCain: 60%
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-23
Incumbent: Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio)
Obama: 47%
McCain: 51%
White: 36 Black: 2 Hispanic: 60 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Likely Republican
TX-24
Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)
Obama: 39%
McCain: 60%
TX-25
Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)
Obama: 72%
McCain: 26%
White: 49 Black: 11 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-26
Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)
Obama: 39%
McCain: 61%
TX-27
Incumbent: Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi)
Obama: 398%
McCain: 60%
Projected: Safe Republican
NOTE: 28% Hispanic
TX-28
Incumbents: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)
Obama: 61%
McCain: 38%
Old District (Obama-McCain):
White: 25 Black: 9 Hispanic: 63 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-29
Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)
Counties: Harris
Cities of Note: Houston
Obama: 63%
McCain: 36%
Old District (Obama-McCain):
White: 21 Black: 11 Hispanic: 66 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Safe Democratic30
TX-30
Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)
Obama: 77
McCain: 23%
White: 30 Black: 43 Hispanic: 24 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-31
Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)
Obama: 39%
McCain: 59%
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-32
Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)
Obama: 42%
McCain: 56%
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-33
Incumbent: VACANT SEAT
Obama: 66%
McCain: 33%
White: 27 Black: 16 Hispanic: 52 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-34
Incumbent: VACANT SEAT
Obama: 38%
McCain: 61%
Old District (Obama-McCain):
Projected: Safe Republican
TX-35
Incumbent: VACANT
Obama: 54%
McCain: 40%
White: 24 Black: 3 Hispanic: 72 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Safe Democratic
TX-36
Incumbent: VACANT
Obama: 57%
McCain: 42%
White: 21 Black: 2 Hispanic: 75 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0
Projected: Safe Democratic
In a good year, it will be 24-12 (with that seat we pick up being Conseco’s, which I would rate Lean R).
2 of the new ones will be VRA but to protect Farenthold, they will de-VRA his seat and make a new one. Could work.
i knew obama wasn’t popular, but 398% for mccain in farenthold’s district?
I could see this happening or something very close to it.
I guess the idea of having congressional districts renumbered so that 17th is next to the 18th and so forth will not catch fire in TX.
under this map might not be a VRA district. It looks pretty similar to what the GOP tried to do in 2006. VRA only grants a right to a compact minority-majority district, which SCOTUS held you can’t accomplish by tying together disparate Hispanic groups (ie hispanics on the border with Hispanics in suburban areas). Just food for thought.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that you can’t draw a map like this. But if there’s a way to draw an additional compact district, you’ll probably have to rather than going this route.
Still, this is a very nice effort. Much nicer than what I came up with. ‘Gratz.
By my count, you have 11 pretty solid D’s: 9, 16, 18, 20, 25, 28, 29, 30, 33, 35, 36. Then, you have 15 as a Lean D, so I get this as a 24-12 map. I still think 23 is probably a swing district, possibly making it a 23-13 map. If I were the GOP, then I would probably make both Quito and Hinosoja safe, making a solid 24-12 map, which is what I did here.