Texas GOP Gerrymander 2.0 25-11

This is my second attempt at a Texas GOP gerrymander. In a good year for the GOP, it will be 26-10, but in a neutral year I expect 25-11. All GOP seats are safe.

NOTE: There is a sliver going into Bryan to pick up Flores’ home.

VRA is complied–one new Hispanic seat in McAllen area and one new seat in Dallas area. Population are all at +/-500ish, but some are more (up to 2000) but I don’t have time to fix all of them…

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The plan:

TX-1

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Obama: 30%

McCain: 69%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-2

Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Obama: 35%

McCain: 635

Old District (Obama-McCain):

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-3

Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Counties: Collin

Cities of Note: Plano, Allen, Frisco, Wylie, McKinney

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain):Projected: Safe Republican

The district is completely based in Collin County, which has grown tremendously. Johnson is safe and will be succeeded by a conservative Republican if he retires.

TX-4

Incumbent:  Ralph Hall (R-Rockwell)

Obama: 31%

McCain: 68%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-5

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-6

Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Obama: 38%

McCain: 62%

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-7

Incumbent:  Jeb Hensarling (R-The Villages)

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Projected: Safe Republican

NOTE: 59% White, 26% Hispanic

TX-8

Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Obama: 30%

McCain: 69%

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-9

Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)

Obama: 75%

McCain: 24%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 18 Black: 36 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 12 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-10

Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)

Obama: 35%

McCain: 66%

Projected: Safe Republican

Seeing how Montgomery County has grown tremendously since 2000, I split it up into two districts to help McCaul. The district loses some precincts in Austin and Harris County. If I were a Republican (I’m not), I’d feel pretty good about McCaul until 2020.

TX-11

Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Obama: 24

McCain: 75

Projection: Safe Republican

NOTE: 27% Hispanic

TX-12

Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-13

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Obama: 29%

McCain: 70%

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-14

Incumbent: Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-15

Incumbent: Ruben Hinjosa (D-Mercedes)

Obama: 48%

McCain: 51%

White: 30 Black: 2 Hispanic: 67 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Lean Democratic

TX-16

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Obama: 65%

McCain: 34%

White: 18 Black: 3 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-17

Incumbent: Bill Flores

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

TX-18

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Obama: 84%

McCain: 16%

White: 17 Black: 49 Hispanic: 29 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-19

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock)

Obama: 25%

McCain: 74%

Projected: Safe Republican

NOTE: 29% Hispanic

TX-20

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

White: 24 Black: 5 Hispanic: 68 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district gets more Hispanic and more Democratic. Gonzalez should be, and will be, fine.

TX-21

Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-22

Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-23

Incumbent: Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio)

Obama: 47%

McCain: 51%

White: 36 Black: 2 Hispanic: 60 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

TX-24

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

TX-25

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Obama: 72%

McCain: 26%

White: 49 Black: 11 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-26

Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)

Obama: 39%

McCain: 61%

TX-27

Incumbent: Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi)

Obama: 398%

McCain: 60%

Projected: Safe Republican

NOTE: 28% Hispanic

TX-28

Incumbents: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Obama: 61%

McCain: 38%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 25 Black: 9 Hispanic: 63 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-29

Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 63%

McCain: 36%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 21 Black: 11 Hispanic: 66 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic30

TX-30

Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Obama: 77

McCain: 23%

White: 30 Black: 43 Hispanic: 24 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-31

Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Obama: 39%

McCain: 59%

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-32

Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Obama: 42%

McCain: 56%

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-33

Incumbent: VACANT SEAT

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

White: 27 Black: 16 Hispanic: 52 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-34

Incumbent: VACANT SEAT

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-35

Incumbent: VACANT

Obama: 54%

McCain: 40%

White: 24 Black: 3 Hispanic: 72 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-36

Incumbent: VACANT

Obama: 57%

McCain: 42%

White: 21 Black: 2 Hispanic: 75 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic  

9 thoughts on “Texas GOP Gerrymander 2.0 25-11”

  1. I could see this happening or something very close to it.

    I guess the idea of having congressional districts renumbered so that 17th is next to the 18th and so forth will not catch fire in TX.

  2. under this map might not be a VRA district.  It looks pretty similar to what the GOP tried to do in 2006.  VRA only grants a right to a compact minority-majority district, which SCOTUS held you can’t accomplish by tying together disparate Hispanic groups (ie hispanics on the border with Hispanics in suburban areas).  Just food for thought.  

    Of course, this doesn’t mean that you can’t draw a map like this.  But if there’s a way to draw an additional compact district, you’ll probably have to rather than going this route.

    Still, this is a very nice effort.  Much nicer than what I came up with.  ‘Gratz.

  3. By my count, you have 11 pretty solid D’s: 9, 16, 18, 20, 25, 28, 29, 30, 33, 35, 36.  Then, you have 15 as a Lean D, so I get this as a 24-12 map.  I still think 23 is probably a swing district, possibly making it a 23-13 map.  If I were the GOP, then I would probably make both Quito and Hinosoja safe, making a solid 24-12 map, which is what I did here.  

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