PPPolling is out with numbers on Nelson’s re-elect. He leads all comers, except Jeb Bush, but his job approval & ballott test are all very enemic;
Fav/Unfav
Nelson 36/33 (33 not sure)
Bush 51/40
Mack 20/24 (56% have no opinion w/ all those new ppl in FL, does anyone remember his dad anymore?)
Lemieux 16/27 (58% no opinion)
Bush 49
Nelson 44
Nelson 44
Connie Mack 36
Nelson 47
Lemieux 36
Nelson is a tough cookie and a solid fit for a Dem to win in FL, but this is going to be a whole different world than what he faced in ’06 (best atmosphere for Dems since ’74 & running against the worst statewide candidate in state history).
I’d rate it a lean Dem until either Bush gets in (no chance) or one of the others show they can put together a statewide operation & get their name ID and define themselves before Nelson does it for them.
President Barack Obama says valor and sacrifice in the armed forces are no longer defined by sexual orientation.
We talked a lot about Russ Carnahan in Missouri & being targeted in redistricting, anyone else out there that looks like a Dead Man Walking? I’m especially interested in Ohio, Illinois, Michigan & Pennsylvania…
If Palin runs, this thing is gonna be such a blow-out, it’s not even funny. I do believe, though, that if Obama’s only at 45% approval in Florida vs. Romney, Romney probably prevails here. I think Obama needs to be more at 47% approval in a given state to win there. Huckabee and Gingrich will keep it within 5.
“The governor named state Rep. Maile Shimabukuro and former state Sen. Malama Solomon — an ally of Abercrombie’s from their days in the Legislature — to fill vacancies created by the resignations of Colleen Hanabusa (D, Nanakuli-Makua) and Dwight Takamine (D, Hilo-Hawi).”
Now that Rep. Shimabukuro is headed to the Senate, the governor will appoint her replacement in the state house.
So I wanted to start a new thread and ask a question: many of you have been following the invective that Kos has been leveling at Jon Tester as a result of Tester’s refusal to support the DREAM act. I don’t want to get in the fairness or unfairness of what Kos is doing (it’s his blog, he has a right to choose what issues he deems important, IMHO), but more – does anybody think Tester’s decision not to support the DREAM act will hurt him rather than help him in his 2012 race?
On one hand: it could be the majority of Montanans would not support the DREAM act, and Tester, having voted for most of the major legislation over the past few years, wanted to establish his independence on at least one thing.
On the other: If Tester has lost the progressive community, he does lose a major source of boots on the ground and fundraising. And it’s sort of hard for me to see anyone who would vote on opposing the DREAM act voting for Tester anyway.
What do you all think?
He blames illegal immigrants for LA losing a seat.
No, not the fact that Katrina drove away a lot of citizens, but it’s the illegal immigrants’ fault.
During Netroots Nation ’10, Lt. Dan Choi gave Harry Reid his West Point class ring as a token reminder to repeal DADT. The promise was that the ring would be returned once the repealer was signed. Well, in a meeting today, Reid returned the ring as promised.
Everyday feels like Groundhog Day in Louisiana: another Democratic state rep or senator takes a job somewhere or switches parties handing the seat to the GOP. This time it’s Nick Gautreaux, who’s taking a job in the Jindal administration as commissioner of the Office of Motor Vehicles. Personally I can’t think of a more thankless job than running a DMV-like organization but I guess that’s where the power is.
Gautreaux’s southwestern Louisiana district includes all of Vermilion Parish and parts of Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry parishes. How conservative is the area? Mary Landrieu lost all the parishes except St. Landry in 2008.
The state Senate is about to be 19 Dems and 18 Republicans with two vacancies. As GOPVOTER has pointed out in the past one of those vacancies will flip to the GOP since no Dem filed. Unless Dems get very lucky the GOP will have the majority in the state Senate by March.
in VT, treasurer jeb spaulding will resign in january after shumlin becomes governor. treasurer is a statewide elected position and shumlin is allowed to choose spaulding’s replacement. he chose Deputy Treasurer Beth Pearce. she says she’s going to be there for the long haul, meaning she’ll run come 2012.
If the last 2yrs have taught me anything its this- Republicans are brilliant at playing politics. I disagree with almost all their policies but credit where its do. They understand the political game in ways the Dems just don’t unfortunately. That’s why I’m not optimistic about democratic fortunes for 2012 unless the economy drastically improves.
It will be on January 18, two weeks after the special election in Iowa Senate district 48. Both districts are Republican-held and probably will remain in Republican hands. I previewed the SD 35 race here.
has been a more reliable vote getter than 18 Democratic Senators since the election. She is also the only Republican to vote for all 4 lame duck bills.
This article states that Democrats winning control of the House in 2006 and 2008 were flukes like 1946 and 1952 for Republicans and that Republicans have a “natural” majority in the House. This suggests that Republicans could control the House for 40 years.
I know DailyKos isn’t popular here, and I also take part in complaints about the naivete and irrationality of many of the posters there. However, there is still some interesting content posted there.
One of Pres. Obama’s biggest supporters in the Senate in the past week is not even a member of his own party: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).
Murkowski supported the president’s position on the Senate’s four biggest votes since last Wednesday…. No Senate Republican voted for all four bills other than Murkowski. And the senior senator from Alaska, who became a national figure this year when she defeated attorney Joe Miller (R) with her write-in campaign, has actually been a more reliable vote for the president than 18 members of the Senate Democratic caucus since Dec. 15.
It’s too early to know whether Murkowski will remain an unreliable vote for the Senate Republicans, but a preliminary conclusion one can make is that this new independence by Murkowski probably has a lot to do with her having lost the Republican primary to an extremist and then won reelection as a write-in by appealing to Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Or, as Kos says:
For now, let’s enjoy her votes and smugly note that none of this would’ve been possible without our teabagger friends.
It quotes from a Washington Post article. It’s true that process generally goes beyond the scope of this site, but I will post an excerpt and discuss possible electoral implications.
Biden, chronically optimistic, might be forgiven a burst of Christmas cheer. “The one message [of the election] was, ‘We want you guys to cooperate where you can,’ ” Biden says. And, he insists, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was among those who “got the message.”
Really? Mr. “If they think it’s bad now, wait till next year”? Mr. “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president”?
Look past the political rhetoric, Biden advises. “Don’t be moved by all you hear and take a look at what their needs are. . . . We don’t have a whip hand, but it’s not so clear they have one,” he adds, noting that a Republican push for immediate and drastic spending cuts will run headlong into economists’ warnings about the impact on a still-fragile economy.
What’s interesting is that the Republicans stopped blocking everything during the surprisingly productive lame duck session, which isn’t what I expected to happen after they gained the House and several Senate seats. If the Republicans decide that the best way for them to be reelected is by making workable compromises, now that they control a House of Congress, and that their reelection is more important than sabotaging things so that President Obama is defeated (which Karl Rove just accidentally predicted wouldn’t happen, for whatever that’s worth) while the country goes to Hell in a handbasket, that would be an interesting change in political strategy, and while it would be likely to increase President Obama’s reelection chances, it is not so clear whether it would actually be a smart political strategy for Republican House members (I think it would likely be good for Republican senators, because – correct me if you disagree – the voters seem to reward statewide moderation and effectiveness somewhat). It would, however, be good for the country. And perhaps, in a burst of good cheer, the electorate would simply reelect incumbents at a higher than usual rate.
Leaves Danny Davis and Carol Moseley Braun as the only black candidates.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Looking forward to more polls in 2011!
FL-Sen
PPPolling is out with numbers on Nelson’s re-elect. He leads all comers, except Jeb Bush, but his job approval & ballott test are all very enemic;
Fav/Unfav
Nelson 36/33 (33 not sure)
Bush 51/40
Mack 20/24 (56% have no opinion w/ all those new ppl in FL, does anyone remember his dad anymore?)
Lemieux 16/27 (58% no opinion)
Bush 49
Nelson 44
Nelson 44
Connie Mack 36
Nelson 47
Lemieux 36
Nelson is a tough cookie and a solid fit for a Dem to win in FL, but this is going to be a whole different world than what he faced in ’06 (best atmosphere for Dems since ’74 & running against the worst statewide candidate in state history).
I’d rate it a lean Dem until either Bush gets in (no chance) or one of the others show they can put together a statewide operation & get their name ID and define themselves before Nelson does it for them.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…
snip
We talked a lot about Russ Carnahan in Missouri & being targeted in redistricting, anyone else out there that looks like a Dead Man Walking? I’m especially interested in Ohio, Illinois, Michigan & Pennsylvania…
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
If Palin runs, this thing is gonna be such a blow-out, it’s not even funny. I do believe, though, that if Obama’s only at 45% approval in Florida vs. Romney, Romney probably prevails here. I think Obama needs to be more at 47% approval in a given state to win there. Huckabee and Gingrich will keep it within 5.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Supposedly, he’s got a major FOX News deal in the works that would ensure he isn’t running. This would be terrific news for Palin.
Not that it’s any surprise, but McConnell is running again.
Link: http://www.rollcall.com/news/M…
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
Hooray!!!
FYI, yesterday Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) appointed two new state senators based on recent appointments to his cabinet.
http://www.staradvertiser.com/…
“The governor named state Rep. Maile Shimabukuro and former state Sen. Malama Solomon — an ally of Abercrombie’s from their days in the Legislature — to fill vacancies created by the resignations of Colleen Hanabusa (D, Nanakuli-Makua) and Dwight Takamine (D, Hilo-Hawi).”
Now that Rep. Shimabukuro is headed to the Senate, the governor will appoint her replacement in the state house.
So I wanted to start a new thread and ask a question: many of you have been following the invective that Kos has been leveling at Jon Tester as a result of Tester’s refusal to support the DREAM act. I don’t want to get in the fairness or unfairness of what Kos is doing (it’s his blog, he has a right to choose what issues he deems important, IMHO), but more – does anybody think Tester’s decision not to support the DREAM act will hurt him rather than help him in his 2012 race?
On one hand: it could be the majority of Montanans would not support the DREAM act, and Tester, having voted for most of the major legislation over the past few years, wanted to establish his independence on at least one thing.
On the other: If Tester has lost the progressive community, he does lose a major source of boots on the ground and fundraising. And it’s sort of hard for me to see anyone who would vote on opposing the DREAM act voting for Tester anyway.
What do you all think?
He blames illegal immigrants for LA losing a seat.
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/…
No, not the fact that Katrina drove away a lot of citizens, but it’s the illegal immigrants’ fault.
During Netroots Nation ’10, Lt. Dan Choi gave Harry Reid his West Point class ring as a token reminder to repeal DADT. The promise was that the ring would be returned once the repealer was signed. Well, in a meeting today, Reid returned the ring as promised.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/-…
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
His next possible form of recourse is to go to federal court, but he has only 48 hours to do so.
I’m not a big Massive Attack fan, but “Unfinished Sympathy” and “Protection” are awesome tunes.
Filibuster Reform’s A’Comin
http://nationaljournal.com/con…
http://www.nola.com/politics/i…
Everyday feels like Groundhog Day in Louisiana: another Democratic state rep or senator takes a job somewhere or switches parties handing the seat to the GOP. This time it’s Nick Gautreaux, who’s taking a job in the Jindal administration as commissioner of the Office of Motor Vehicles. Personally I can’t think of a more thankless job than running a DMV-like organization but I guess that’s where the power is.
Gautreaux’s southwestern Louisiana district includes all of Vermilion Parish and parts of Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry parishes. How conservative is the area? Mary Landrieu lost all the parishes except St. Landry in 2008.
The state Senate is about to be 19 Dems and 18 Republicans with two vacancies. As GOPVOTER has pointed out in the past one of those vacancies will flip to the GOP since no Dem filed. Unless Dems get very lucky the GOP will have the majority in the state Senate by March.
in VT, treasurer jeb spaulding will resign in january after shumlin becomes governor. treasurer is a statewide elected position and shumlin is allowed to choose spaulding’s replacement. he chose Deputy Treasurer Beth Pearce. she says she’s going to be there for the long haul, meaning she’ll run come 2012.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress…
If the last 2yrs have taught me anything its this- Republicans are brilliant at playing politics. I disagree with almost all their policies but credit where its do. They understand the political game in ways the Dems just don’t unfortunately. That’s why I’m not optimistic about democratic fortunes for 2012 unless the economy drastically improves.
It will be on January 18, two weeks after the special election in Iowa Senate district 48. Both districts are Republican-held and probably will remain in Republican hands. I previewed the SD 35 race here.
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
Merkley says this is not about killing the filibuster, but to actually make it more open and democratic.
The Daily Beast attempts to plumb the depths of McFlipFlop’s bitterness streak:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/b…
has been a more reliable vote getter than 18 Democratic Senators since the election. She is also the only Republican to vote for all 4 lame duck bills.
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
This article states that Democrats winning control of the House in 2006 and 2008 were flukes like 1946 and 1952 for Republicans and that Republicans have a “natural” majority in the House. This suggests that Republicans could control the House for 40 years.
I know DailyKos isn’t popular here, and I also take part in complaints about the naivete and irrationality of many of the posters there. However, there is still some interesting content posted there.
Here’s a Front Page article about Murkowski:
Murkowski suddenly Dems best friend
It includes quotes from a National Journal article:
It’s too early to know whether Murkowski will remain an unreliable vote for the Senate Republicans, but a preliminary conclusion one can make is that this new independence by Murkowski probably has a lot to do with her having lost the Republican primary to an extremist and then won reelection as a write-in by appealing to Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Or, as Kos says:
A second interesting post is a diary about the role and effectiveness of Joe Biden in getting things done, in the Senate and beyond.
It quotes from a Washington Post article. It’s true that process generally goes beyond the scope of this site, but I will post an excerpt and discuss possible electoral implications.
What’s interesting is that the Republicans stopped blocking everything during the surprisingly productive lame duck session, which isn’t what I expected to happen after they gained the House and several Senate seats. If the Republicans decide that the best way for them to be reelected is by making workable compromises, now that they control a House of Congress, and that their reelection is more important than sabotaging things so that President Obama is defeated (which Karl Rove just accidentally predicted wouldn’t happen, for whatever that’s worth) while the country goes to Hell in a handbasket, that would be an interesting change in political strategy, and while it would be likely to increase President Obama’s reelection chances, it is not so clear whether it would actually be a smart political strategy for Republican House members (I think it would likely be good for Republican senators, because – correct me if you disagree – the voters seem to reward statewide moderation and effectiveness somewhat). It would, however, be good for the country. And perhaps, in a burst of good cheer, the electorate would simply reelect incumbents at a higher than usual rate.
Leaves Danny Davis and Carol Moseley Braun as the only black candidates.
http://www.wrex.com/Global/sto…