I have combined the two states in this diary as they both only have a few Congressional seats, and, if I understand correctly, both have a rule whereby counties should not be split when doing redistricting. Both Arkansas and West Virginia are also states which historically have been very Democratic — but in the recent past, both are trending Republican (though both are still controlled by Democrats when it comes to remapping). Each state currently has only one Democratic House member left. Via these maps, the goal is to have two Democrats in both Arkansas and West Virginia.
Arkansas:
All the districts conform to the “no-county splitting” rule with population deviations ranging from 266 to 2902 persons using Dave’s Application. Under demographics, ethnic/racial groups are provided if 5% or more of a district’s population.
District 1 (Green)
Proposed District Demographics: 90% white; 5% black
Current District: Obama 38; McCain 59
Proposed District: Obama 33; McCain 64
This new district includes the most Republican counties of northern Arkansas, combining parts of the current AR-1, AR-2 and AR-3.
District 2 (Blue)
Proposed District Demographics: 62% white; 31% black
Current District: Obama 44; McCain 54
Proposed District: Obama 50+; McCain 48
Population-wise, almost 60% of this new district comes out of the existing AR-2, while the rest comes out of AR-1. I was surprised, but it’s apparently possible to create an Obama-majority district in Arkansas even when all districts have to correspond to the county lines rule (while also not messing with Mike Ross’ district). This new district combines the most Democratic parts of AR-1 and AR-2. 11 out of 15 counties in the new district were carried by the Democratic candidate in last November’s House elections (the exceptions being Conway, Lonoke, Perry and Van Buren Counties). Likewise, Blanche Lincoln carried the same 11 out of 15 counties.
District 3 (Purple)
Proposed District Demographics: 80% white; 12% hispanic
Current District: Obama 34; McCain 64
Proposed District: Obama 33; McCain 64
The new AR-3 in the northwestern part of the state maintains its hyper-GOP nature under this map.
District 4 (Red)
Proposed District Demographics: 71% white; 23% black
Current District: Obama 39; McCain 58
Proposed District: Obama 38; McCain 59
Arkansas’ only House Democrat, Mike Ross, gets to keep about 90% of his current territory, as the district becomes only a sliver more Republican.
West Virginia:
All the districts conform to the “no-county splitting” rule with population deviations ranging from 3026 to 7993 persons using Dave’s Application.
District 1 (Blue)
Proposed District Demographics: 93% white
Current District: Obama 42; McCain 57
Proposed District: Obama 45; McCain 53
The new WV-1 combines some of the most Democratic parts of the current WV-1 and WV-2 into one district. However, both GOP incumbents from those districts would now be in WV-1 under the new lines. The goal is to have the two Republicans fight it out in the primary, while a Democrat ultimately emerges on top in November.
District 2 (Green)
Proposed District Demographics: 93% white
Current District: Obama 44; McCain 55
Proposed District: Obama 39; McCain 59
The new WV-2 becomes sort of a “sink” for GOP votes under this map. However, it would have no incumbent under the new lines.
District 3 (Purple)
Proposed District Demographics: 94% white
Current District: Obama 42; McCain 56
Proposed District: Obama 43; McCain 55
West Virginia’s only House Democrat, Nick Rahall, gets to keep about 75% of his current territory, as the district becomes slightly more Democratic.
WV-1 does pose an interesting question though. What if Capito Moore, who lives in Charleston, runs in the first? While that would set up an exciting R-R match up, if she wins the primary, our chances of picking up the seat may be diminished. One the other hand, I imagine she’ll be running for some statewide office in 2012 anyway.
they are very interesting and raise all sorts of interesting questions.
In AR its like an attempt at 2R-2D. For a state that came within a 1000 or so votes of being 4D-0R in 2001 that’s quite a retreat. This particular map accomplishes two purposes as it firms up Mike Ross and gives the democrats a decent chance of electing a democrat in AR2. If a conservative Democrat was nominated there it would be a lock but Joyce Elliott won the D primary in 2010. She lost in 2010 and would a huge primary favorite in a seat like this. As an AA democrat she would undoubtly run well behind party numbers in this seat.
My crystal ball, however, says that the conservative coalition in AR (both house & senate is run this way) will pretty much leave current lines as they are. Now AR4 may very look like this map has it. The conservative democrats who run things in AR will not likely lock up AR1 as GOP seat nor will they create a seat for a liberal democrat to hold. I look for AR2 to stay exactly as it is plus AR1 will slide into CD3. That’s my best guess.
This WV map is very nifty. It really shake everything up in WV if this map was adopted. My crystal ball, however, sees thing staying the same in WV. Mollohan has lots of legislative friends in WV and he would not want his old seat chopped up. WV1 clearly becomes a Charleston influenced seat–not to Mollohan liking. Rahall will not want to lose any of it seat. That’s my guess and I believe just the current CD2 giving up one county on its western end to CD1 & CD3 will perfectly balance the state. I think that will happen.
But the West Virginia map doesn’t seem to accomplish much.
They are good bids. You need to include the rating of the districts (the current and the future) for the people see where would be really the districts because West Virginia and Arkansas are not the most Obama friendly states. I think we can have some district under R+5, and it is not bad.
To redistrict both states is more difficult than it seems, and redistrict West Virginia is more difficult still than redistrict Arkansas.
Arkansas give few but interesting options for improve since a democratic point. Your map show one, what try to keep the current AR-04 with few changes, and my maps give others.
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
One of my conclusions drawing maps for Arkansas was the next.
Without this, it is really difficult to have a second district under R+5 level. Then, the alone chance is try to keep the second democratic district (AR-04) thanks to the appeal of M Ross, without touck his current district, like you make. The trouble here appear if M Ross leaves the US House.
West Virginia give not chance for strong improvements since a democratic point. It is really difficult to connect the most democratic areas of West Virginia for do two R+low districts what can favore to the democratic candidates. One of my conclusions here is the next:
I like the idea of linking the Northern Panhandle and Charleston a lot. But that swing it takes to the East is weird. It’d be weird, very weird to split Mon, Marion and Harrison counties (personally I’d like to see those counties linked with the Eastern Panhandle). The other problem is simply one for whomever is elected in the green district (and her/his staff) – given where the mountains and the roads are, that would be a positively brutal district to get around in. Still, I like the concept of district 1, even if I assume the outcome will actually be more boring (like moving Mason County).
I like the Arkansas map.
I’ve gotten a district that’s about 55% Obama (by my calculations), but it does pretty much throw Mike Ross under the bus. I like your maps.
1st (Blue) – 44%O 54%M
2nd (Green) – 37%O 61%M
3rd (Purple) – 47%O 51%M
I think the eastern panhandle, especially the eastern 3 counties, is like Washington County Maryland. Still very Republican but trending Democratic (unlike the rest of the state which is trending Republican).