The Dems came extremely close to controlling the redistricting trifecta in CO, losing the state house of reps by a single seat. If the Dems had won that house seat last year, or if they could somehow convince one of the Republicans in the house to switch parties or support a Democratic redistricting plan, here is one way the Democrats could draw a reasonably compact 5-2 map of Colorado.
Denver Area:
The two districts that are the most changed under this map are the 3rd and the 4th. The new 3rd is a C-shaped district that includes the Hispanic areas in the Southern part of the state, the liberal rocky mtn ski towns, and some swingy areas in Jefferson county. Despite the fact that the Jeff Co areas are swing regions, this district is safely Democratic as those areas only make up about one third of the district’s population. A GOP candidate could get up to 60% of the vote in the Jeff Co part of this district and still lose overall due to the heavy Democratic lean of the other areas. The one problem with this district is that rep Ed Perlmutter actually lives here. This shouldn’t be a problem in terms of losing to a Republican (he’s more vulnerable in his old district than here), but he may not want to represent a district composed of so much new territory.
The new 4th is composed of Greeley, Fort Collins-Loveland, and some mainly Hispanic areas in Weld and Adams counties. Between the white liberals in Greeley and Fort Collins and the Hispanics in Adams Co, it should be all but safe democratic. I could see this district maybe going red in a midterm year with low Hispanic turnout, but even that would probably be a stretch, and getting less likely with every passing year as this area trends more and more democratic. Still this is probably the least Democratic of the 5 D districts on this map, which is a testament to how Democratic this map is more than anything else.
The 2nd district around Boulder is almost unchanged. The 1st has shed some areas in Denver Co to the 7th and gained some suburban areas around Littleton in order to shore up the 7th. The 1st is now less Democratic but still enough for Diana DeGette to be completely safe. The 7th has lost a lot of territory in Adams and Jefferson counties, but it has gained some African-American and mixed African-American and Hispanic areas in Denver along with some areas in Weld and Morgan counties. At 59% White it is the most minority-heavy of all these districts, and should be much safer for Democrats now. Lastly, the 5th and 6th serve as GOP vote dumps in Colorado Springs and the outer areas of the state, respectively.
UPDATE
There was some discussion in the comments of the potential effects of the VRA on Colorado. It is actually possible to draw a compact plurality-hispanic district in Denver and Adams Co. My initial guess was that this would wind up hurting Democrats significantly. This turned out to be partially true, but much less than I originally thought. The basic methodology of the map remains the same; Draw a C-shaped district combining the Denver suburbs, the Hispanic areas in South CO, and the liberal ski towns, and attach Fort Collins and Greeley to something other than ruralconservativeland. It turns out looking like this:
Denver Area:
Under this map, the 1st district is 43% W, 8 %B, 44% H. It is possible to make it as much as 39-ish percent white if you want to, but once it crosses the 50% non-white line there is no legal obligation to make it more non-white so I decided to leave it 43% white in order to make the surrounding districts safer. One big change under this map is that the 4th is now drawn down to Boulder instead of Adams Co. This saves the Democrats the trouble of having to find someone to run in what was under the first map their weakest district. The other change is that the 2nd district is now mainly a Jefferson Co based district, with a bit of Arapahoe Co and the SW tip of Denver Co thrown in. This is probably the worst thing for the Democrats on this map, as I suspect the PVI of this district is something like D+2 or 3, making it only a slightly D-leaning seat. It also has no incumbent, as rep Perlmutter’s home is still in the 3rd. This area is trending Democratic very quickly, though, so if the Dems have to draw a VRA seat then I wouldn’t totally freak out about this one. The 7th, having lost a lot of nonwhite territory to the 1st, now has taken on the majority-white sections of Denver. I don’t know where Rep Diana DeGette lives in Denver, however I would guess she probably lives in one of the mainly white areas, so she probably runs in the 7th under this map, opening up the new 1st for a Hispanic representative. The 7th, like the 4th, has probably moved towards the Democrats under this map. The 3rd, OTOH, has moved to the GOP here, as it has taken on the rural areas previously in the 2nd, a tiny part of Douglas Co, and Crowley and Otero counties in the south which are GOP leaning but have significant Hispanic minorities. Overall, this new 3rd is probably Likely D at worst. So the net shift to the GOP from creating a new Hispanic-plurality district is at most one district. The biggest loser under this new VRA scenario seems to be compactness and community-of-interest contiguity (I particularly don’t like the idea of splitting Denver Co between multiple districts), not necessarily the Democratic Party.
Hickenlooper needs to use the power of appointment, get himself a full Dem state legislature majority and pass this exact map. I love how truly gerrymandered it is but at the same time, perfectly reasonable. The 3rd maybe is stretching it and even while the 6th spans the entire state, it makes sense.
and its probably 5D2 in most elections.
I note that this map neatly divides the minority communities in the denver area among three seats and puts rural hispanic counties in one of those Denver based seats.
Right now I am not sure this map could even pass the state senate which is 20D-15R. Hispanic legislators would not be likely to vote for this bill as Salazar does not have a seat to run in. Plus in the urban area instead of attaching heavily hispanic Adams to Denver its farmed out to another district where its diluted.
I might add that any rural legislator worth his salt would see that this map pretty eliminates any rural seat from CO.
I might add for those folks who think a compact minorty majority seat must be created one could easily do that in the Denver area but this map, as noted, neatly divides the minority community into three seats. This was what Gov Bilbo did to the Miss Delta during Jim Crow days. Slice up the minorities so they don’t have a seat to call their own. I don’t say this meanness but rather I am just giving historical context to such a plan.
I don’t know what will happen in CO. I suspect a bipartisan plan will evolve and will be passed. If not you can bet that the GOP house will pass a minority majority plan for the Denver area. As Noted I think a bipartisan standpat plan will pass.
as a crescent around the Denver area covering the West side, the sparsely populated inner Northern suburbs, and the North side of Aurora. I think it might be close to majority-Hispanic.
So, like CT, CO could be another unexpected place where a supreme court VRA decision could have some effect.
I wish I had thought of that.
Do you have any idea where in town you’ve drawn the lines through? I only ask because a map like this could mean 3 Denver Dems go to Congress (in fact, it’d make it quite likely), but could make it so DeGette isn’t one of them.
I’m from there, but don’t know the map well enough to figure out where the split is occurring. Anyone?
(I know it wouldn’t happen, but a good thought experiment)
First, a Pueblo/JeffCo battle for the new C-shaped district. I’d be that Rep. Pace (minority leader) and possibly Pueblo DA Bill Theibault would run for that seat, as would probably a termed-out state rep/sen from the West burbs. The interests of these two population centers really don’t overlap, so it’d be a very interesting primary.
In the green district, Rep. Tipton and Rep. Gardner would be thrown together. Grand Junction is the only population center, but that district would be almost 70% rural, and Gardner plays well in those areas. It’d guarantee Salazar isn’t coming back to Congress.
Yellow: Lamborn stays safe, and can remain invisible.
Red: Boulder + Ft. Collins + Greeley. Would probably be designed for Markey to win, but would be where Polis lives, and his gobs of money probably ensure that this remains a Boulder-centric district for a while. Would join the 3 major colleges in the state, though, with CSU in Ft. Collins, CU in Boulder, and UNC in Greeley.
Green/Blue/Gray:
DeGette would run in one of these, I’d bet, but I’m not sure which (probably Gray).
Blue would probably be a minority Dem, I’d bet Denver City Councilwoman Paula Sandoval, Sen. Lucia Guzman, or Rep. Ed Casso. Casso definitely wants to move up, and is very young, so that’d be an interesting primary.
Green is sort of burbs-ish, and the front-runner would probably be one of the inner Jeff Co reps or Southern Arapahoe reps. I’m really not sure who’d be favored in something like this.
Another thing to notice is Coffman becomes district-less.
borders New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, and, with touch-point contiguity, Arizona.
I assume that would be more than any other district.