After a few tries and reading a few ideas for what could happen with redistricting, I finally came up with this final draft of a map combining everything I know to make one nasty GOP gerrymander. TX-25 once again became a “fajita strip” but I find that creating another Hispanic South TX seat is very possible once you work some mojo into Bexar County (San Antonio.)
Three new Hispanic seats, with a possibly four new GOP seats (three open and one incumbent screwed over.)
For the numbers, the first set of Obama/McCain are the new district’s numbers, second set are the former district. I put new district’s demographics when relevant. Open seats do not have former district numbers because they are new seats gained from redistricting.
TX-16 Silvestre Reyes
Brown, Far western El Paso district
65/34 66/34
This district stays more or less the same and Reyes would easily win another term.
TX-23 Quico Canseco
Green monster western Texas
41/59 51/48 35/5/58
This border district becomes much more Republican by taking in Hispanic territory in the Texas panhandle. This new territory, while pretty Hispanic, is also heavily Republican. Any Republican should be safe here and with the GOP primary being the decider, a white GOPer could certainly slip into this Hispanic majority seat. (Argument #1 for the DOJ.)
TX-13 Mac Thornberry
Pink north central
26/73 23/77
This district loses some of it’s panhandle portions and thus becomes a little less gerrymandered by taking in more territory in north central TX. Because of how the map worked out, I had to throw Waco into this district because before I had Chet Edwards in an open seat with most of his old territory and it being more Dem friendly. No way.
TX-19 and TX-11 were panhandle seats that are pushed east by TX-23 and now are used to crack the Austin area. Both become decidedly more Democratic, but not enough to make a difference. The other Austin area seat, TX-31, remains mostly unchanged.
TX-19 Randy Neugebauer
Yellow
35/64 27/72
TX-11 Mike Conway
Peach
37/61 24/76
TX-31 John Carter
Cyan
41/58 42/58
Bexar County is key to making gains in South TX for the GOP. There is a lot of population to play with and the GOP can be very effective in knowing how to divvy it up.
TX-21 Lamar Smith
Grey
39/60 41/58 62/6/29
A few points more Republican with the same general northern San Antonio metro area.
TX-20 Charlie Gonzalez
Orange
69/29 63/36 15/7/75
Becomes more Democratic with packing the most Dem precincts in Bexar County. Very much a Dem vote sink as creating two 60%-Obama Hispanic districts in Bexar County is entirely possible, could be considered packing Hispanics. (Argument #2 for the DOJ.)
TX-28 Henry Cuellar
Red
47/52 56/44 39/2/55
His district now takes in a different portion of San Antonio suburbs and loses some heavily Dem border territory. In total, this district becomes 17% more Republican, and a little less Hispanic overall.
TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa
Cyan
73/26 60/40 8/0/91
Packed every Dem precinct that I could yet again. Packing Dems does mean packing Hispanics and I’d love to know if any other districts in the country can beat 91% non-white for a single demographic. (Argument #3 for the DOJ.)
TX-33 OPEN
Turquoise
47/52 36/3/58
Brand new south Texas district that heavily utilizes Bexar County for population in the north with being anchored by Harling and parts of McAllen in the south. This and Cuellar’s district could be competitive in a Presidential year with Hispanic turn-out, but a mid-term year should favor the GOP more.
TX-25 Lloyd Doggett
Blue
66/33 59/40 29/10/58
New fajita strip to connect Austin to Brownsville and a new Dem sink Hispanic district. This district is crucial in creating a GOP Hispanic district to the west and shoring up Farenthold to the east. (Argument #4 for the DOJ for overly gerrymandered.)
TX-27 Blake Farenthold
Violet
45/54 53/46 37/4/57
Takes in less border territory and more rural Hispanic territory SE of San Antonio to make a GOP seat based in Corpus Christi for Farenthold.
TX-17 Bill Flores
Brown
38/61 32/67
This district becomes a few more points Democratic and now takes in rural counties central TX rather than connecting to the Dallas metro area. Flores should be fine as once this district went Republican, it’s probably gone for good.
TX-10 Mike McCaul
Indigo
42/57 44/55
Retains the same concept of the current TX-10 while shoring up McCaul a bit.
TX-14 Ron Paul
Pink
38/61 33/66
Not too different; a few more points Democratic but nothing to worry or care about.
TX-34 OPEN
Orange
32/67
This seems like a weird place for the new Houston area seat to end up but population growth meant that two GOP incumbents based closer into the city are given more compact seats. This new district is basically the left-over exurban/rural territory of these two incumbents’ districts.
TX-22 Pete Olson
Yellow
40/59 41/58
Same district, tick more Republican because that’s how the map shook out.
TX-2 Ted Poe
Cyan
36/63 40/60
Poe’s district loses the rural territory and is just about all Harris County district.
TX-8 Kevin Brady
Red
34/65 26/74
New compact Harris and Montgomery County district for Brady. It becomes much more Democratic, but safe GOP nonetheless.
TX-7 John Culberson
Grey
41/58 41/58
Without adding a new Hispanic district in the Houston metro, Culberson’s district sees no shoring up. Still pretty safe GOP, but that could change drastically over the next decade. (Depending how the housing market shakes out.)
TX-9 Al Green
Green
79/21 77/23 16/40/32
This district, along with the next two, are nearly identical to the former districts with some changes to reflect population growth. All three minority-majority seats will see the same incumbents return under this scenario.
TX-29 Gene Green
Violet
64/36 62/38 20/10/67
TX-18 Sheila Jackson Lee
Peach
77/22 77/22 22/42/31
TX-35 OPEN
Turquoise
33/66
New seat that takes TX-17 portion of rural territory leading into the metroplex. Combined with much of the city of Arlington, the third largest city in the area, and you’ve got yourself a district.
TX-6 Joe Barton
Violet
37/62 40/60
Not much change here.
TX-5 Jen Hensarling
Blue
35/64 36/63
This district moves further into East TX to avoid taking in more Dem territory in the metropolitan area.
TX-1 Louie Gohmert
Indigo
30-69 31/69
Moves north to accommodate TX-5.
TX-4 Ralph Hall
Orange
37/62 30/69
Snakes into Dallas and the city of Garland to protect the other GOP Dallas-area incumbents as Hall can afford to pick-up more Democrats while doing so for the other incumbents moves them from no sweat to slightly annoyed and will have to have a few more extra fundraisers.
TX-12 Kay Granger
Indigo
36/63 36/63
Very similar to the current district, with the same Presidential numbers as well.
TX-26 Mike Burgess
Brown
37/62 41/58
District becomes much more Denton County-centric with it becoming a very solid GOP seat along the way.
TX-3 Sam Johnson
Yellow
36/63 42/57
Ditto Sam Johnson whose district becomes the mirror of the previous district and is much more Collin County based. Also now extremely comfortable for the GOP and can last the next decade.
TX-32 Pete Sessions
Red
42/57 46/53
He should be very happy with his new district. The creation of a Hispanic district means shoring up Sessions a bit.
TX-24 Kenny Marchant
Green
38/61 44/55
Ditto Marchant, who now gets a +23% McCain district.
TX-36 OPEN
Peach
67/32 22/12/63
New Hispanic district that stretches from Fort Worth to Dallas. Easy gain for the Democrats in the area.
TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson
Grey
82/18 82/18 24/52/21
This district is able to become an AA majority with shedding Hispanic territory to the new TX-36. This is one reason why AA interest groups could be happy with this map as it guarantees them a Dallas seat, with Houston now being their only other concern.
This looks like 24 Rep 9 Dem and 3 swings to me. While I think the map could be less gerrymandered, it would not shock me to see these types of numbers. A few other comments:
I believe Canseco actually lives in TX-28. While reps don’t actually have to live in their districts in Texas, he would live pretty far away.
I would still give Cuellar the advantage here to win TX-28 district. Webb just loves him too much.
TX-33 is built for new Republican Aaron Pena. I was actually surprised that it wasn’t a lean Dem district. However, there is no doubt Dems would target this district and probably win it at some point. This by the way is very similar to something Greg Wythe drew.
TX-27 is actually more Democratic than I thought it was at first glance. Nueces has recently trended Republican. I am not sure if that will continue after this session though.
TX-25 could probably less gerrymandered by bringing it down the I-35 corridor.
I think something similar to this will be passed by the GOP. I like your TX27 but I am sure it will creep that far south.
I also think Conseco will retain the broad outline of his current seat. I believe the GOP will be precise in what they keep in and what they leave out in TX23. It will be very similar to the current seat. Long term the GOP has to win seats like that in Texas so they will try to ride the Quinco ship into harbor.
If the TX GOP pushes for this map, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the DoJ sues over possible VRA violations. SCOTUS may (again) have the last word on how Texas is redrawn.
By which I mean, “Crap!” I really don’t know how that’s going to hold up in court, but it is effective. Canseco does NOT live in your TX-23 however, he’s either in your 28 or 33. Your fajita strips look a lot like the map the Supreme Court threw out in 2006, so I’m not seeing that happening. I could see it holding up if you left Doggett alone and give him something more Austin based.
As for the rest, nice job on Houston and working Dallas county. I see you got Olson to retain his Sugarland home and keep NASA, which he will value. Sessions and Culberson could face some long term consequences during the last 2 elections of this map, but I think they could still hold on, the rest appear safe.
I dunno if Cuellar, Farenthold, could hold on. Both are swing as is your 33. Maybe this could motivate the TX Democratic Party to leave the county parties in charge of Harris and Dallas (where they are doing pretty well) and they can devote ALL their efforts to the Valley in organizing, voter registration, education, etc.
I believe the SC has ruled that even a compact district in the lower Rio Grande valley is a racial gerrymander. You have to unpack those Hispanic votes some.
I really like that 23, definitely a good example of how Hispanic yet how GOP several of those west Texas counties have become. The GOP would definitely be smart to utilize some of those counties, even if it isn’t to the extent you did. In its current form 23 is essentially a swing district. It would only take a small shift to the right to make it a lean Republican district.