So, what’s your crystal ball telling you? Rahm Emanuel, sure, but by what margin? Will he avoid a runoff? And what will all the other candidates get? Test your mettle in comments. No babka, but maybe Rahm will send you a cheesecake.
41 thoughts on “Chicago Mayor Predictions Thread”
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Rahm wins 52%
Chico wins 16%
Braun wins 16%
Del Valle wins 11%
Everyone else gets 5% combines
Rahm – 59
Chico – 16
Braun – 14
Del Valle – 8
Others – 3
Just kidding.
Rahm- 54%
Chico- 21%
Moseley Braun- 15%
Del Valle- 8%
Everyone else- 2%
Also, are there any good races to watch down-ballot?
Rahm – 55%
Chico – 17%
Moseley-Braun – 16%
as Al Capone would say.
Emanual 50
Chico 25
Del Valle 15
Braun 9
Emanuel- 52
Chico- 22
Braun- 13
Del Valle- 11
Others- 2
Emanuel – 53%
Chico – 19%
Braun – 15%
Del Valle – 10%
Rahm 53%
Chico 18%
Mosley-Braun 12%
Del Valle 10%
All others 7%
What ever happened to that nice lady from the Democratic debates in 2003?
Rahm-56
Chicago-19
Braun-15
Del Valle-8
Others-2
Emanuel – 49
Chico – 18
Del Valle – 17
Braun – 10
Others – 4
Emanuel – 50%
Chico – 15%
Moseley Braun – 15%
Del Valle – 10%
All Others – 10%
Oy Vey. My hometown doesn’t deserve any of them.
Emanuel- 60
Chico- 21
Del Valle- 10
Braun- 7
Others- 2
I’m aiming high with the Emanuel numbers. I think a lot of people feel that this race is basically wrapped up and so turnout may be relatively low, and I think Emanuel’s advantage among higher-turnout groups (whites, women, older people) may make give him a better result than polls predict. Also, I’m giving Del Valle and Braun low marks, because I think the vast majority of late-breaking undecideds will break to either Emanuel or Chico, as they are the two main candidates in the race at this point.
And know, perhaps, what voter number you were at your polling place?
My guess is that Rahmbo will win it outright. He’s been flirting with 50 in the public polling and undecideds will push him over the top.
also, according to the first linked article, Chicago only has 1.4 million registered voters? Out of something like 2.8 million total pop? damn.
Rahm-42
Braun-32
Chico-16
Everyone else- 10
The AA vote comes out for Braun.
Rahmbo: 49
Chico: 20
Braun: 15
Del Valle: 10
Others: 5
Of Rahmbo not winning outright tonight? Let’s just say I’ll be surprised if there’s a runoff.
Emmanuel 48%
Chico 25%
I’ve heard that labor is not happy with Rahm. Since labor is in a protest mood, a chunk may rally behind Chico.
Emanuel-61
Chico-18
Brausley-10
De Valle-8
Others-2
https://twitter.com/#!/mikemem…
According to this article lower turnout helps Rahm (and this qualifies as low turnout). http://www.chicagotribune.com/…
Rahm “the Bomb” Emmanuel: 63%
Chico: 11%
Braun: 9%
De Val or whatever: 7% (protest vote mainly)
10% other
49 Emanuel
21 Chico
15 del Valle
9 Braun
4 Watkins
2 Walls
It’s disappointing that del Valle, the only progressive, independent candidate of the “major” candidates couldn’t gain more traction. I’m also curious as to how the aldermanic elections play out, but I don’t know enough to form any broad opinions.
Emanuel – 49%
Chico – 20%
Braun – 14%
Del Valle – 13%
I think Rahm would really like to see Braun place fourth.
Emanuel – 45%
Others – I don’t know enough.
you take the sum of the absolute errors of the predictions provided, counting only predictions that had numbers for all four major candidates, the result is as follows, assuming a result of Emanuel 55, Chico 24, Del Valle 9, Braun 9:
(a low score is a good thing)
Darth Jeff- 11.75
twohundertseventy- 11.07
drobertson- 10.57
homerun- 12
californianintexas- 12
knickelbein5- 13
hoosierdem- 14
SaoMagnifico- 14
sdkWA- 15
tietack- 17
Johnny Longtorso- 18
andyroo312- 19
LookingOver- 20
Kretzy- 21
ndrwmls10- 21
jwaalk- 23
First place tiebreaker with 98% reporting:
Errors for Emanuel, Chico, Del Valle, Braun:
darth jeff 1.11+3.16+1.34+6.14= 11.75
drobertson 4.89+3.16+0.66+1.86= 10.57
twohundertseventy 3.11+2.16+1.66+4.14= 11.07