This is a fairly radical gerrymander of North Carolina, leaving the Democrats only two black-majority seats and otherwise creating 11 Republican districts. This is purely hypothetical, as I didn’t watch out for the residencies of the GOP incumbents, so they will probably not be too happy with this plan.
First of all, there’s the map:
Now for the districts:
NC-01
This is an improved version of the Mel Watt Gerrymander. It gets rid of the heavily African-American precincts in South Charlotte, which will prove to be important later on, and makes the district not only African-American plurality, but majority.
Racial Stats:
50.3% Black
32.2% White
12.5% Hispanic
5% Other
Politically:
Obama 76.8%
McCain 22.7%
D+23.5
NC-02
The second VRA district, not touching the Coastline, which allows for a contigous coast-line district.
52.6% Black
35% White
9.4% Hispanic
3% Other
72.5% Obama
27.0% McCain
D+19
NC-03
A pretty Republican coastal district, one of the most compact ones in the map.
70.4% White
22.8% Black
7% Other
44.0% Obama
55.3% McCain
R+9
NC-04
This is one of many, many districts following the same principle: Combining liberal Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area precincts with really, really GOP-leaning rural areas.
72.5% White
18.7% Black
6.1% Hispanic
3% Other
45.5% Obama
53.5% McCain
R+7.5
NC-05
Same thing as the 4th district, really. It could be picked up by a Heath Shuler-style Democrat, but it’s really unlikely that someone like that would win the primary dominated by Durham and Chapel Hill.
75.2% White
12.2% Black
8.6% Hispanic
4% Other
46.5% Obama
52.4% McCain
R+6.5
NC-06
Same thing- 80-20% Obama districts in Chapel Hill being balanced out by Republican areas. The stats are actually really, really similar to the 5th. Kissell winds up here, but almost nothing of his base does. He’s in a D+2 right now, so getting thrown into a R+6.5 district should do him in, especially as his district doesn’t know him.
70.9% White
16.4% Black
8.6% Hispanic
4% Other
46.5% Obama
52.6% McCain
R+6.5
NC-07
In the end there are just too many liberal areas in Durham-Chapel Hill to soak them up into R+6 districts, so this one had to be a bit more Democratic. It’s still definitely leaning Republican though, looking at how McCain won it in the worst year for Republicans in a long time.
70.6% White
15.3% Black
8.8% Hispanic
6% Other
48% Obama
51% McCain
R+5
NC-08
This is McIntyre’s district. It’s not impossible that he could survive here, but hey, he’s basically a Republican anyway.
65.5% White
20.9% Black
6.0% Hispanic
5.6% Native
2% Other
46.8% Obama
52.4% McCain
R+8
NC-09
This is a funny district, connecting Fayetteville and Charlotte. It’s also the reason why Watt’s district needed to shed Southern Charlotte- I needed to fit two districts between his and the state border. It’s not that Republican, in fact the least Republican of the Republican seats, but there is no Democratic base. A Charlotte African-American probably wouldn’t get much traction in Fayetteville.
White 61.6%
Black 25.0%
Hispanic 6.8%
7% Other
48.8% Obama
50.4% McCain
R+4.5
R+10
Most of not-that-heavily black Charlotte combined with rural NC and Democratic Gastonia. This seat should elect a Republican from the Charlotte suburbs.
75.3% White
12.8% Black
7.8% Hispanic
4% Other
46.3% Obama
52.8% McCain
R+7
NC-11
A combination of rural NC and Democratic-ish Winston-Salem-Greensboro, minus the Mel Watt-parts.
76.6% White
13.6% Black
6.4% Hispanic
3% Other
45.4% Obama
53.7% McCain
R+8
NC-12
This district takes Shuler’s Asheville base away without drawing him in. He could move here and lose, or stay in Waynesville, run in NC-13 and lose. In the unlikely event that he somehow survives, we probably have a 9-4 map at worst (with McIntyre and Shuler surviving, and they’re both almost Republicans).
80.8% White
9.1% Black
7.3% Hispanic
3% Other
Obama 43.5%
McCain 55.2%
R+9.5
NC-13
This is where Shuler’s home is. Plus, a lot of Republicans.
87.1% White
5.9% Black
7% Other
43.9% Obama
54.8% McCain
R+9.5
What do you think?
In a neutral or Republican year, Republicans could probably hold those seats, but they are not secure in waves.
Wow this seems like a moderate restrained map to me. No just kidding. The GOP will not do a map like this and while I think this is an interesting exercise I don’t see it being done like that.
The likeliest map, per my crystal ball, is one with three solid democrat seats. a. Current CD12 will include the minority population of Charlotte and will veer eastward to Robeson county. There may be a detour to Cumberland county. B. Durham & Orange county and then west to Greensoboro.C. Then the current CD1 with a loop into Wake county for AA population there. I personally would not remove Buscombe county from CD11 but rather work around the edges. Others have done up a 10-3 map but I would split CD11 to oust Sular if I was the GOP.
Just in case no one noticed here is what I expect will happen and what I will believe is the best course for the GOP in redistricting 2011.
1. Do a 5R-2D-1 map in WI. Secure incumbents, weaken Kind as you can but don’t do a Madison to Lake Superior map
2. Don’t split Davidson county but settle for 7R-2D in TN
3. Do the 7R-2D in IN and move on. Don’t try to split Marion or Lake county up. Lock in the high water and be happy.
4. Remove one D & one R seat in OH. You have to know when to fold them and when to hold them. Trying to split Lucas or Summitt county to avoid losing an R seat is folly.
5. Do your 13-5 in PA and don’t mess with Holden.
For those people who think I always argue against wild D maps don’t forget I suggest restrait on the R side as well. I for one think, that in 18 months, we will look back and say “everybody wussed out and did these cautious maps”. Incumbent congressman are concerned about me, myself and I in redistricting. That will lead to more cautious less adventuresome maps in 2011.
That’s what my crystal ball says.
This could easily turn into a dummymander. Democrats fair well in R+4/R+5 districts. I think the best bet for the North Carolina GOP would be a 10-3 map. Three D+20 districts is doable and that would benefit the 10 remaining GOP districts by shifting them all 2 more points towards the GOP.
going down as racial gerrymanders.
There’s not a snowflake’s chance in hell that the NC GOP would pass a map such as this. Even leaving aside the epic conniption for the incumbent Republicans, it seems to assume that Obama represents some sort of ‘highwater’ mark for Democrats in North Carolina. Nothing could be further from the truth – and the state GOP is well-aware of that. If I had to pin a number on it, any district in which Obama received 47% is virtually assured to go Democratic for Congress in a normal year (or even non-normal years – the Etheridge loss was a pure fluke on par with Oberstar).
At worse your map is 8-5 GOP. McIntyre would not have the slightest problem holding this NC-08. It’s actually better for him than his current district. NC-07 is a virtual Dem lock as well – you’ve placed most of the Wake County areas that have been trending steadily leftward for over a decade into this district, along with a bunch of Blue Dog swing voters. It might already be an ‘Obama district’ by 2012. A Charlotte African-American would not get much traction in your NC-09 district, but a McIntyre clone would have no problem with it, and that’s what the Democrats would nominate. Heck, it’d probably be one of McIntyre’s Robeson County neighbors (the lines are cut that close).
Beyond that, NC-10 and NC-11 are very dicey for the GOP on this map. Again, these are anchored by areas that – much like Cary – have been shifting strongly toward the left over the past two decades. They’d probably be lean GOP at best and possibly toss-ups – if not by 2012 then likely by 2014. NC-05 and NC-06 have similar stats, but they’re also dominated by more reliable GOP base voters. They would only go Dem in a ‘wave year’ like 2006, and even then may hold for the GOP.
Worst Case Scenario: 8-5 GOP
Best Case Scenario: 9-4 DEM
Maybe even 10-3 DEM. Shuler would have at least an outside shot at NC-13.
And a quick note on McIntyre: Over the course of his career, he’s hardly “a Republican anyway.” What he is is a survivor – obviously enough, since he’s still in Congress. LOL
McIntyre will roll with the political tides. It’s not as if the votes he cast against Democratic initiatives were decisive of anything, anyhow.
The fact that he seized on health care as a way to look conservative (on essentially symbolic votes) and that he swiftly recognized the 2010 political environment unlike many of his more complacent (and thus unemployed) colleagues doesn’t make him a Republican.
While I find this map fascinating, there are several problems with it and there’s no way the NCGOP would try it.
Your “NC-1” is probably pretty close to what the Legislature will come up with for NC-12 and I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to move Butterfield’s district, your “NC-2”, into downtown Raleigh to try shoring up current NC-2 and screwing over Brad Miller in NC-13.
Beyond that, I don’t see how they could get better than a 10-3 map because there’s just too many extremely Dem voters in the Triangle to not keep something close to the current NC-4 as a Democratic vote sink.