This is a fairly radical gerrymander of North Carolina, leaving the Democrats only two black-majority seats and otherwise creating 11 Republican districts. This is purely hypothetical, as I didn’t watch out for the residencies of the GOP incumbents, so they will probably not be too happy with this plan.
First of all, there’s the map:
Now for the districts:
NC-01
This is an improved version of the Mel Watt Gerrymander. It gets rid of the heavily African-American precincts in South Charlotte, which will prove to be important later on, and makes the district not only African-American plurality, but majority.
Racial Stats:
50.3% Black
32.2% White
12.5% Hispanic
5% Other
Politically:
Obama 76.8%
McCain 22.7%
D+23.5
NC-02
The second VRA district, not touching the Coastline, which allows for a contigous coast-line district.
52.6% Black
35% White
9.4% Hispanic
3% Other
72.5% Obama
27.0% McCain
D+19
NC-03
A pretty Republican coastal district, one of the most compact ones in the map.
70.4% White
22.8% Black
7% Other
44.0% Obama
55.3% McCain
R+9
NC-04
This is one of many, many districts following the same principle: Combining liberal Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area precincts with really, really GOP-leaning rural areas.
72.5% White
18.7% Black
6.1% Hispanic
3% Other
45.5% Obama
53.5% McCain
R+7.5
NC-05
Same thing as the 4th district, really. It could be picked up by a Heath Shuler-style Democrat, but it’s really unlikely that someone like that would win the primary dominated by Durham and Chapel Hill.
75.2% White
12.2% Black
8.6% Hispanic
4% Other
46.5% Obama
52.4% McCain
R+6.5
NC-06
Same thing- 80-20% Obama districts in Chapel Hill being balanced out by Republican areas. The stats are actually really, really similar to the 5th. Kissell winds up here, but almost nothing of his base does. He’s in a D+2 right now, so getting thrown into a R+6.5 district should do him in, especially as his district doesn’t know him.
70.9% White
16.4% Black
8.6% Hispanic
4% Other
46.5% Obama
52.6% McCain
R+6.5
NC-07
In the end there are just too many liberal areas in Durham-Chapel Hill to soak them up into R+6 districts, so this one had to be a bit more Democratic. It’s still definitely leaning Republican though, looking at how McCain won it in the worst year for Republicans in a long time.
70.6% White
15.3% Black
8.8% Hispanic
6% Other
48% Obama
51% McCain
R+5
NC-08
This is McIntyre’s district. It’s not impossible that he could survive here, but hey, he’s basically a Republican anyway.
65.5% White
20.9% Black
6.0% Hispanic
5.6% Native
2% Other
46.8% Obama
52.4% McCain
R+8
NC-09
This is a funny district, connecting Fayetteville and Charlotte. It’s also the reason why Watt’s district needed to shed Southern Charlotte- I needed to fit two districts between his and the state border. It’s not that Republican, in fact the least Republican of the Republican seats, but there is no Democratic base. A Charlotte African-American probably wouldn’t get much traction in Fayetteville.
White 61.6%
Black 25.0%
Hispanic 6.8%
7% Other
48.8% Obama
50.4% McCain
R+4.5
R+10
Most of not-that-heavily black Charlotte combined with rural NC and Democratic Gastonia. This seat should elect a Republican from the Charlotte suburbs.
75.3% White
12.8% Black
7.8% Hispanic
4% Other
46.3% Obama
52.8% McCain
R+7
NC-11
A combination of rural NC and Democratic-ish Winston-Salem-Greensboro, minus the Mel Watt-parts.
76.6% White
13.6% Black
6.4% Hispanic
3% Other
45.4% Obama
53.7% McCain
R+8
NC-12
This district takes Shuler’s Asheville base away without drawing him in. He could move here and lose, or stay in Waynesville, run in NC-13 and lose. In the unlikely event that he somehow survives, we probably have a 9-4 map at worst (with McIntyre and Shuler surviving, and they’re both almost Republicans).
80.8% White
9.1% Black
7.3% Hispanic
3% Other
Obama 43.5%
McCain 55.2%
R+9.5
NC-13
This is where Shuler’s home is. Plus, a lot of Republicans.
87.1% White
5.9% Black
7% Other
43.9% Obama
54.8% McCain
R+9.5
What do you think?